Many teams can play better as the season goes..its who they played and what the opponent was playing with in those games. This goes for ALL teams as the season goes.
Thanks. So the best and the worst were both slaughtered.
KC and SF played the guys in the middle.
Now KC is facing the team that won big over the "best'
Sf is facing the team that faced the worst. But barely beat the team in the middle at home...
Nothing wrong with their opinions. They should know, being inside the game as players or coaches.
But SF hasn't been the SF they have been recognized for by those 5 games IMO.
The point spread tells us all a lot. Just sitting there at -2.5.
Such a dominating team all year with now being a dog.
A lot to digest here
But one thing I noticed is you account for teams losing vs SF because turnovers. Well can some credit not be given that SF was the cause of the turnovers?
It seems you consciously favor certain teams to then support what you like you gravitate towards reasons that support your cause.
Take the eagles they played two games without Hurts. Well Dallas dropped 40 on them yet no Hurts they drop 34 on Dallas. But SF plays a 3rd string QB and is 8-0 with him. So SF overcoming a huge obstacle 8 straight games is irrelevant but Phi can’t in two games but we side step that.
Cin is best team yet mentioned they had no Run game of late. Is a run game not important much like good defense this stage of season? Is that not a concern?
Cin held all 5 teams to lowest points regardless of who was in or out. Like Baltimore on 2nd n 3rd QB it doesn’t matter. Yet on another team you will say but it’s because xyz
If Dallas doesn’t this or that SF doesn’t win. Yeah well they did win. But you mention SF handled everyone else all. So that includes 4 of the last 5. They just did handle Dallas.
I almost think you’re better off just saying you think team xyz is best etc just because that’s what you think. And nothing wrong with that. It’s the justification and reasoning which makes it hard to grasp imo. As it focuses on one thing as positive or excuses for one team yet the other it’s a reason of concern and issues.
So where do we draw the measurements line? 5 game or 6 or 3 or the last game to determine who is playing the best football? The Niners have won 12 in a row. 12! Doesn’t guarantee they win vs eagles but that’s a pretty consistent streak going back 4 months since last loss. Impressive honestly and rare
I like that reasoning but why isnt KC a #1 seed laying it or more to a#3 seed.?
Point spread is basically off stats. With weather injuries etc factor in. The stats tell us on average over 18 games Eagles score 28 Niners score 26. Eagles give up 19 Niners give up 16. Puts us at projection of eagles 22 Niners 23. Could play the home field add the old 3 points. Puts us at eagles around-2.5 and 45.5 total.
Eagles average 28
Giants average 21
Eagles-7.5
Bengals average 27
Ravens average 20
Bengals-8
Vikings average 24
Giants average 21
Vikings-3.5
Eagles average 28
Niners average 26
Eagles-2.5
Chiefs average 29
Bengals average 27
Chiefs-1.5
Chiefs average 29
Jaguars 22
Chiefs-9.5
Vast majority is a real simple average that produces lines. It’s not telling us some big secret. Lines adjusted like I said weather or injuries or home vs away or teaser protection or rookie QB first playoff game etc.
Best post here. It’s why it’s hard to have a conversation with the person in question.
the fact is backed up spot on if you go back and look at his write ups for the playoffs. One week Dallas sucks, the next they are going to handle San Fran. Now the San Fran win over Dallas means nothing Reading the review of cinn last week was something else, a predicted Buffalo blow out, now those concerns don’t matter and this is the underdog of the decade with cincy
kot better if he just said this is who I like and why. Honestly with the streak he’s on… he’s probably over thinking it all anyway… couldn’t do any worse to try a different approach
Sf lost to Denver because of 3 turnovers. Im not choosing here.
The playoff game was far more impacted than any regular season game when its two winners playing each other.
Yes the Eagles had 4 turnovers against Dallas. Major reason PHI lost.
Right. Its actually more important because the team losing the run game is now one-dimensional and much harder to get first downs, hold tine of possession and play defense much longer by giving up the ball. Yet they still won.
the advantage that SF had that no other playoff team had in the last 5 games, was that SF played 4 of the 5 at home.
Go ahead and flip the outcome. It would show that the game would have gone the other way by the turnovers that were committed. Thats why.
The narrow win by SF would have never happened.
Cincy and Philly rolled up yards with points.
KC nor SF did that. Their wins were not dominating.
Now they are BOTH facing far better opponents this week and SF is on the road which is a huge factor for Philly.
I agree that the streak is impressive.
I bet on the Super Bowl two years ago against the team with the best record who had a 10 game win streak and went 15-2 on the season and it already beat the opponent in the same season in the same place the SB was played, which was the Home stadium for the under dog. with the worse record. The team was KC. The Dog was Tampa.
While the streak was impressive when I capped that game it was not really any part of the SB and its outcome.
What was important is that the Public was all over KC with the impressive record and win streak. But earlier in the season KC stopped in Tampa for a regular season win -3 and beat Tamya by 3 points.
Now you can talk about SF win streak - but its pulling weight that doesn't matter at all. Its the same reason I bring up the last 5 games.
In the KC-Tampa Super Bowl game for all the marbles, I wrote a long detailed reason why Tampa was going to win SU and Im on the same path for this game with SF and why i don't think they are the best defense right now..
KC had not been the same team later in the season that they were during the 10 game win streak.
Down the stretch - the KC team was not really as good as the record was. Also Tampa had little respect with 8 losses on the season and also losing SU to KC in Tampa earlier in the season.
KC was favored in every game that year, except 2 games.
SF now is that same team. favored in every game except 2 again.
But as the under dog. KC went 1-1 SU.
SF this year is 0-2 as a dog.
Sunday they are the dog again.
Philly has 8 ats losses this year.
But seeing the SF defensive numbers and who they played and the points allowed they appear to be in the same spot that KC was. Meaning that late games played were not as good as earlier games in regards to points allowed on the season.
Many stats are available and others here use all kinds to justify their points, but its the "changes" I look for or the level of opponents or if they re home games or ways games that reveal it late i the season..
And seeing what Im seeing for this weekend is why I believe that the four teams listed are in the correct order for defense now.
I posted this thread to see how many others would have other factors other than the very obvious, like Season rankings and all the other mentioned here etc.
I see the advantages in those - but those advantages have to be se to the recent play of each team. Not season long numbers.
The Hottest teams defensively are Cincy right now. Philly is #2. IMO
When Winners play winners - At the end of every game, its the points allowed that matter, not the overall season rating of a team before that game.
GL Sunday on who ever you play.
I see the game being close as well. But if Mahomes is really hurting he leaves the game
In reality the line would match the regular season line in most cases. So for anyone to predict what that line would have been its already been posted with both QB playing.
Some believe that the Public is over reacting about Patricks injury.
If Im Vegas, I wont get any action on KC at all no matter what the spread is if he can't go. For them to move the line only 1.5 and cross over at -1 is just testing the draw for the masses.
And if he starts and the line goes up to -2.5 or -3 I think the action improves on KC. Confidence sets in on the gambler and the game looks like it would during the season. with both teams playing starting QB's.
Because Mahomes was hurt - the KC bettors didnt all walk away and bet Cincy, they all are waiting to see if he plays or is sure he is playing.
The Bengal bettors are betting on a healthy team so they poured in knowing they have no risk. Thats why the early percentages are heavy on Cin.
If Mahomes cant go the Bengal bettors are even better off because the line will go against Cincy. There was no reason to wait IMO thats why I bet this game Sunday Night.
Cincy already beat KC three straight times with Mahomes starting healthy and both teams are nearly the same in all three.
With my early bet on Cincy - I have no spread advantage if he's out - but a much better SU win advantage.
The difference I see here is that KC has no choice but to play Mahomes even if he is only 50%. They're in the position to only BLUFF right now and banking on the hope he doesn't hurt it during the game.
Ive noticed since Wednesday when he was announced as "probable", the percentages starting increasing on KC. It will be interesting to see where they end up 1 hour before game time.
Teams do progress during the season. McCaffrey was also big addition to SF offensively.
But I come back to the offenses that SF faced during the season. Only faced a few teams on the road that had above average offense. They let up 34 points to LV on the road and almost lost. They haven't faced an offense on the road like the Eagles.
SF could win tomorrow. My opinion is if SF is to win (and I personally see them losing by 13+) they will have to score at least 35 to do it, because I believe the Eagles will be able to score at least 34.
This post should be pinned.
unreal some of the stuff posted, it’s actual like if you say enough stupid stuff a lot… you start to believe it.
either way after reading this post I can totally see why his resukts are his results and starting to see that the good ol streak wasn’t so much bad luck as it is reasoning like that.
Best line is… the “changes” within the game. Aka- in other words some of the stuff I spouted off last week have changed or to put it in words we understand…. I was WRONG last week
I have to say again for anyone reading this. This is like a huge essay written by someone in college that has no clue to the answers to the discussion question at the end of the test but writes a long confusing narrative in hopes that some of the stuff they say gets them points
before following such essay remember this student has yet to make a 50 percent grade on anything in the past 3 years and hasn’t gotten but one answer right in the last 13 questions
I have to say again for anyone reading this. This is like a huge essay written by someone in college that has no clue to the answers to the discussion question at the end of the test but writes a long confusing narrative in hopes that some of the stuff they say gets them points
before following such essay remember this student has yet to make a 50 percent grade on anything in the past 3 years and hasn’t gotten but one answer right in the last 13 questions
Epic lmao. Spot on analogy. I just laughed so hard. Because yes, I can recall a few times in college doing this exactly hahahahaha. Just do circles around the question in hopes of confusion to the professor. Going on and on hoping they just stop reading my answer and slap a C on it for effort with the idea they may think somewhere in there I must have answered part of it. Hahahahaha.
Thanks for the laugh
Coach Parcells said it best - "You are what your record says you are."
He is and can't stay away. He called me obsessed. Its his first thing of the day for him and the last thing at night...LOL....LOL He got up at 7:20 today...
He must have a half dozen negative comments but no plays...LOL.
