When would you buy off of a number on a game?

[Fishhead]

MD-

You are much better off sticking with your bet!

There may be times I do not know about for buying half points in basketball..... but in my 20+ years in this business on both sides of the counter, I have never seen it.

This is based on solid bookmaking and betting principles......not theories.

 

[BillyB+]

md- you're right then..........totally different story..........you have 5 teamer from contest then hedge baby hedge and buy if you need to............did you know in NBA when spread is 7 that 7 hits over 5% of time.........this means you make money buying on off 7 in nba.

 

[TheMDKid]

To each his own, Fish. Some of us like the security of guaranteeing a profit, albeit a smaller one. And some of us prefer to let it ride. To me the peace of mind of not having to sweat out the whole game is worth the small extra money that you'll most likely (but not necessarily) win by not hedging in the long run.

 

[TheMDKid]

BB,
Time to discard that old calculator of yours. If your paying 10 cents on the dollar to buy half points (10% markup), there's no way you turn a profit if it hits only 5% of the time. Here's a quick example to prove it:

$110 to win $100 at -7 ... play it 100 times
result ... 5 pushes

$120 to win $100 at -6.5 ... play it 100 times
result ... those 5 pushes are now wins

But was it worth it? Those 5 extra wins ($500) cost you 10 x 100 or $1000. Think not.

 

[Fishhead]

Billy B is correct about the number SEVEN in the NBA.

You can make a case for buying the half on that number no question about it ......and it may or may not give you an advantage.

Actually, in the past 5-6 years I would agree there is a VERY SMALL advantage to possibly buying on and off this number.

 

[Fishhead]

MD & BILLY-

MD is right in his above figures on the 5%, but BILLY is incorrect on the percentage.

The number a 7 point favorite falls in the NBA on 7 is somewhere between 7.0% and somewhere a tad over 10% depending on what numbers and criteria one uses.

 

[TheMDKid]

Huh???
How can you say this in light of the example I just gave. The math says your wrong, buddy. It would have to hit more than 10% of the time to be profitable. I don't think anything but 3 in foots hits that often, and I'm not even sure about THAT!

 

[TheMDKid]

Fish,
No way 7 hits 10% of the time in hoops. No freaking way. You better check your source.

 

[BillyB+]

md-LOL

say you don't buy
47.5 wins, 47.5 losses and 5 pushes =
-5225 + 4750 for loss of $475

say you buy... 5 pushes now become wins
+5250 - 5700 = -450

this was at 5% and it's over 5%........buying winssssssssssssss

 

[Fishhead]

MD- That is exactly what I am saying sir.

In my PERSONAL numbers a 7 point favorite wins by 7 a tad less than 10% of time.

TRUST ME!!

 

[Fishhead]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by FISHHEAD:
MD- That is exactly what I am saying sir.

In my PERSONAL numbers a 7 point favorite wins by 7 a tad less than 10% of time.

TRUST ME!!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Please take note.........I was just testing you???

 

[TheMDKid]

BB,
I'll be damned. I guess it's ME that needs a new calc. You're exactly right. My apologies.

Fish,
You got me scratchin my head here. It's too early in the a.m. for this.

 

[Fishhead]

Sorry, enough teasing.

Say for a FACT we know that a 7 point fav wins by EXACTLY 7 points 5.5% of the time.

Would you buy the -7 to -6.5?
Would you buy the +7 to +7.5?

Do the math and get back to me.

 

[BillyB+]

fishy fishy fishy - I'm disappointed in you. Keep playing with the numbers you'll figure it out.

 

[Fishhead]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Billy B:
fishy fishy fishy - I'm disappointed in you. Keep playing with the numbers you'll figure it out.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

BILLY-
LOL!

Know the answer to the question, just asking.

I am in 1000% agreement with you sir if you use the percentages as you suggested.

 

[BillyB+]

of course I know

 

[Fishhead]

5.1% is a KEY percentage.

This is precisely why the number 7 in the NFL is now worth a buy.

Because since the 2 point conversion was introduced, 7 point favs win by exactly 7 points OVER 5% of the time......according to my numbers.

 

[BillyB+]

know what's really fun.....................find out what happens when total is under 37

 

[TheMDKid]

I can't believe I've been doing this calculation wrong all this time. Holy Jeez, what a maroooon I am.

By the way fella's, here's a great study done on the topic of buying points in the NFL http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/key_numbers.htm

 

[BillyB+]

md- that thing compares apples to oranges.......... you must know spread then chart it......... that's for all spreads