UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez

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ERockMoney was a monster last week nailing a tuff card and some great props. The sharps hit Benoit Saint-Denis last week and killed the books.

I nailed last weeks bet with a knock out in the first 30 seconds and two monster live bets, the lines are really chalky.
Alot of Australian fighters on this card who have to fight after traveling half way around the world.

You could throw Jack Della Maddalena in with Whittaker for a chalky but sold parlay.

(small wagers)

[24310] ROBERT WHITTAKER -417
(DRICUS DU PLESSIS VRS ROBERT WHITTAKER) (UFC 290 - MIDDLEWEIGHT 3 ROUNDS @ T-MOBILE ARENA - LAS VEGAS, NV, USA)
Bobby Nnuckles is the worst matchup for DDP. DDP was calling for a title shot after beating 38 year old Derek Brunson. Du Plessis just underwent surgery to fix a sinus issue that had him getting a tiny fraction of the Oxygen needed to fight at an elite level. It takes a very long time to recover from this kind of surgery and Whittaker is a sniper on the feet. I dont beleive this surgery will fix the cardio issues that have affected him his entire career, DDP record is not as steller as it appears, he has not faught a high level of competition. This line seems about right to me so im going to use it to pad my Parlays

[24314] JALIN TURNER -248
(DAN HOOKER VRS JALIN TURNER) (UFC 290 - LIGHTWEIGHT 3 ROUNDS @ T-MOBILE ARENA - LAS VEGAS, NV, USA)
A broken hand had forced Dan Hooker to withdraw from UFC 285 on March 4 in Las Vegas. Multiple people with knowledge of the situation confirmed the news to MMA Fighting. The promotion is currently seeking a replacement for Hooker’s originally scheduled opponent, Jalin Turner.
Dan hooker career is on the decline, he has taken alot of damage, I dont think he was ever the same after the war with Dustin Poirier . Turner is comming off his best performance of his career, I thought it was a draw with Mateusz Gamrot who quite frankly im starting to doubt his talent level, due to this loss we are getting better value on Turner. Turner will have a 3 inch height advantage but strangly both have a 75.5 inch reach.

STRAIGHT BET
JESUS AGUILAR -177 (No Wager Yet)
(SHANNON ROSS VRS JESUS AGUILAR) (UFC 290 - FLYWEIGHT 3 ROUNDS @ T-MOBILE ARENA - LAS VEGAS, NV, USA)
Shannon Ross has all the drive in the word but completely no talent, he was part of the UFC push to sign everyone under the sun and its paid off for them, he has been cannon fodder for Kleydson Rodrigues and Vinicius Salvador, He is comming off and brutal KO and is one of the fighters traveling from australia. He lost by RNC to a real prospect Steve Erceg. I have heard sob stories about Ross' life and career what little there is of it. Jesus Aguilar is a guillotine choke specialist and has a win over Edgar Cháirez. Heavy Money Hit Shannon Ross Early and I have no clue why, that why. Might take the sub prop on Aguilar.

STRAIGHT BET
ALONZO MENIFIELD -110 (No Wager Yet)
(JIMMY CRUTE VRS ALONZO MENIFIELD) (UFC 290 - LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT 3 ROUNDS @ T-MOBILE ARENA - LAS VEGAS, NV, USA)
Last fight I faded Crute because of the damage of the two bad losses and the surgery, but Crute was not diminished.

I had a large bet on Menifeild last time and it was a draw. This is why I like betting on Menifield, every time he fights you are going to get as much or more then his last fight unfortunately he has a low fight IQ and relies on his athleticism. Menifield is better then his record shows, he started MMA late, didnt have an amature career because he Koed the fight two oppoenets in under 45 seconds, he was a stricker but now has added a bit of ground game that he didnt have early on, and is freak athlete with good cardio for the amount of muscle he carries, Crute did have to sit out all of 2022 due to knee reconstruction surgery after a brutal knock out.

Crute and Menifeild faught on the Perth, Western Australia card, this time it will be in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States this time, so Crute will have to fly half way across the world and have to reacclimate.
Menifeld trains out of a outstanding gym Fortis MMA under Sayif Saud where he lives in Texas. I give the edge in record to Crute who has been starched and taken some bad damage when he stepped up to top 10
competition, I give Menifield the advanatge in the intangibles of fortitude and strength and cardio. In the last fight it was expected that Crute would have the advantage on the ground, and he did but Menifeild out out worked him with his strength and Crute stared to gas, Menifield should be better prepaired for this fight and very well could have gotten the KO last time.
 

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Of the 28 fighters weighing in Friday morning, only one fighter missed, lightweight contender Jalin Turner. He was the last fighter to show up for the weigh-ins and when he stepped to the scale, he came in at 158 pounds, two pounds over the limit for his bout against Dan Hooker (155.5)

I like this, Dan Hooker looked bad on the scale. I read that turner was walking around at 181 today. Changing turner to a medium sized bet and a big parlay piece. I have seen some sharp betting on DDP by sub and knockout, I just dont see it even though the UFC clearly wants Du Plessis to win. Du Plessis winning set up the "real" african champ fight the UFC want$. Whittaker just stalls the devision, and people like Du Plessis style.

JALIN TURNER -280 (Medium)
(DAN HOOKER VRS JALIN TURNER) (UFC 290 - LIGHTWEIGHT 3 ROUNDS @ T-MOBILE ARENA - LAS VEGAS, NV, USA)

The big money is in live betting MMA now.
 

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PARLAY (2 TEAMS)

JALIN TURNER -290
(DAN HOOKER VRS JALIN TURNER) (UFC 290 - LIGHTWEIGHT 3 ROUNDS @ T-MOBILE ARENA - LAS VEGAS, NV, USA)

CAMERON SAAIMAN -580
(TERRENCE MITCHELL VRS CAMERON SAAIMAN) (UFC 290 - BANTAMWEIGHT 3 ROUNDS @ T-MOBILE ARENA - LAS VEGAS, NV, USA)
Mitchell is a complete joke, he is a fish out of water on the big stage.
 

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Jesus Agular second fastest Knockout in UFC history.
 

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