We hope all our readers and followers had a Happy and Safe New Year’s Eve and have carried that into 2024.
Our plays here in our CFB “takes” column ended 2023 by going 1-1 ATS last Saturday with Maryland +7, winning easily in a 31-13 over Auburn in the Music City Bowl but losing terribly with Florida State +20 in a 63-3 rout by Georgia (but a loss is just a loss and we’d rather lose that way than in a late bad beat).
We then started 2024 by also splitting our CFB Playoff semifinal picks on New Year’s Day, with Alabama +1.5 losing 27-20 to Michigan in OT of the Rose Bowl and then Washington +4 upsetting Texas 37-31 in the Sugar Bowl.
The 2-2 ATS mark for the weekend leaves us at a respectable 6-4 ATS (60%) with our bowl picks heading into Monday’s CFB Playoff national championship game and 34-28-2 ATS (54.8%), including the regular season for a net profit of 3.2 units based on laying the standard -110.
I’m sure a lot of people were hoping for an Alabama-Texas rematch in the national title game to determine the best college football team in the nation, but we get new blood here with Michigan and Washington.
The semifinals were exciting, and I’m sure we’re all hoping for a competitive championship game (unless our team wins in a rout, right?).
The Wolverines were the No. 1 team and seed, so we expected them to be favored here, but I absolutely believe the line shouldn’t be over a field goal, so we’re on the underdog Huskies again.
I know all the stats with Washington allowing 24.1 points per game while Michigan allows only 10.2, so a lot of people are citing the “defense wins championship” mantra. I’ve also used that line over the years, but nowhere near as much as before. This isn’t the “three yards and a cloud of dust” era that I grew up in Big Ten Country in the 70’s and 80’s. The rules favor the passing game so much more now, and the offenses are so much more potent that you can’t just rely on teams to rely on the running game and their defense to grind out wins.
Washington, which averages 473.6 yards per game behind QB Michael Penix (compared to 378.8 yards per game for Michigan), has overcome the Huskies’ porous defense again and again this season. The semifinal was no different as Washington won its 10th straight game by 10 points or less and its fifth straight one-score victory. The name of the game is outscoring your opponent, and the Huskies have done that every game this season.
Granted, Michigan is also undefeated, but they haven’t always dominated as much as you would expect from an unbeaten team. Their two most impressive victories came down to the wire with a 30-24 win over rival Ohio State and 27-20 in OT over Alabama last Monday.
And let’s not forget that Jim Harbaugh was 0-6 vs. Ohio State and had a reputation for failing on the big stage before this recent run.
So, we’ll take Washington in a shootout like they usually play, which also has us liking the game to go Over the betting total of 56.5 points.
Picks: Washington +4.5 and Over 56.
Our plays here in our CFB “takes” column ended 2023 by going 1-1 ATS last Saturday with Maryland +7, winning easily in a 31-13 over Auburn in the Music City Bowl but losing terribly with Florida State +20 in a 63-3 rout by Georgia (but a loss is just a loss and we’d rather lose that way than in a late bad beat).
We then started 2024 by also splitting our CFB Playoff semifinal picks on New Year’s Day, with Alabama +1.5 losing 27-20 to Michigan in OT of the Rose Bowl and then Washington +4 upsetting Texas 37-31 in the Sugar Bowl.
The 2-2 ATS mark for the weekend leaves us at a respectable 6-4 ATS (60%) with our bowl picks heading into Monday’s CFB Playoff national championship game and 34-28-2 ATS (54.8%), including the regular season for a net profit of 3.2 units based on laying the standard -110.
Michigan (-4.5, 56.5) vs. Washington
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m. ETI’m sure a lot of people were hoping for an Alabama-Texas rematch in the national title game to determine the best college football team in the nation, but we get new blood here with Michigan and Washington.
The semifinals were exciting, and I’m sure we’re all hoping for a competitive championship game (unless our team wins in a rout, right?).
The Wolverines were the No. 1 team and seed, so we expected them to be favored here, but I absolutely believe the line shouldn’t be over a field goal, so we’re on the underdog Huskies again.
I know all the stats with Washington allowing 24.1 points per game while Michigan allows only 10.2, so a lot of people are citing the “defense wins championship” mantra. I’ve also used that line over the years, but nowhere near as much as before. This isn’t the “three yards and a cloud of dust” era that I grew up in Big Ten Country in the 70’s and 80’s. The rules favor the passing game so much more now, and the offenses are so much more potent that you can’t just rely on teams to rely on the running game and their defense to grind out wins.
Washington, which averages 473.6 yards per game behind QB Michael Penix (compared to 378.8 yards per game for Michigan), has overcome the Huskies’ porous defense again and again this season. The semifinal was no different as Washington won its 10th straight game by 10 points or less and its fifth straight one-score victory. The name of the game is outscoring your opponent, and the Huskies have done that every game this season.
Granted, Michigan is also undefeated, but they haven’t always dominated as much as you would expect from an unbeaten team. Their two most impressive victories came down to the wire with a 30-24 win over rival Ohio State and 27-20 in OT over Alabama last Monday.
And let’s not forget that Jim Harbaugh was 0-6 vs. Ohio State and had a reputation for failing on the big stage before this recent run.
So, we’ll take Washington in a shootout like they usually play, which also has us liking the game to go Over the betting total of 56.5 points.
Picks: Washington +4.5 and Over 56.
