Winbet, I think I understand everything you are saying here. I bet almost exclusively online. And its for recreation only. But the subject is fascinating. My point about middling has nothing to do with hedging bets. If you open Dallas -6 and move it to Dallas -7.5 during the week, you run the risk of a middling problem if the game lands on Dallas winning by exactly 7. If the early money is mostly on Dallas and the late money is mostly on Washington, both sides win and there will be pushes at -7. Is that incorrect? That's what I am talking about. The book takes a hit on the bottom line.
Squeeze Play said:
The reason i dont believe that middling works is due to the various variables involved in the perfect middle..(plus 3 of my books have told me to go ahead and place a bet on the other side during the basketball season after the line had moved about 3 points. I dont remember the game but i was up for the day like 3-1 with one game pending....Rather than risk a 3-2 night, i wanted to cancel my bet and end it there. They wouldnt let me cancel and told me it was ok for me to bet the other side and that they would not accuse me of middling.Thus confirming to me that they were not afraid of middling)
like i said there are too many variables that need to go right for a perfect middling situation that i dont believe a casino could rightly be afraid of middlers.
Incase of public middlers ie. where by he line moves and you some how get enough people on both sides and they manage to hit the middle, an online book doesnt have that much to worry about.... Its about the equivalent of a book recieving a ton of action on a heavy favorite and keeps getting hit on the same side no matter how far they move the line and that fav covers. It happened a whole lot this basket ball season..
So what the book got middled? especially an online book? They dont have to worry, the public is not going to withdraw their money because they hit it big... shit most of them are on an emotional high (about 80%) and are dying to let it ride again..They are gonna lose all that cash and more right back to the book. Its not like a vegas casino where people probably take their cash straight to the spearmint and piss it down the drain...(Vegas particularly doesnt care because they get tons and tons of dumbass tourists every single weekend of football losing money hand over fist to them..They will probably make back middling losses on monday night football alone!!!!)
Like i said this is a subject i only have suspicions about nothing concrete outside of bullshit models i tried in NBA (and all led me to believe that only an anal wuss of a patient arse prick could try that in NBA...you cant even call this person a gambler because it would require patience and discipline plus luck and effort and energy typically absent in about 99% of us gamblers)
Redpimp, I am getting frustrated over this middle thing. My point has NOTHING to do with hedging of bets by anyone anywhere at any time. All I am trying to say is that if the book moves the line and the result lands in the middle of that range, the book does not make as much money as they would normally.
My other point related to what you mentioned. One side gets hammered. And while you have pointed out that Vegas books balk at taking big bets that skew the balance, many games still wind up out of balance to some degree because the public cannot be convinced to jump on the other side by line moves alone. This does happen. And if the public is right, the book is hard pressed to make anything on THAT game.
I believe (and the memory ain't what it used to be) that there was one Super Bowl where the public could not be convinced to take the dog and the books took an honest to God bath. My feeble memory says it was SF vs. San Diego. They moved the line and moved the line, but the public was IN LOVE with San Francisco. The 49ers mopped up and the books took a giant defeat.
At the end of the day, despite being totally clueless, I stand by my original statement. Two things cut into the profits of the book. The middle and the hammer on one side. And again, my use of the word "middle" has nothing to do with some guy playing both sides on the odd chance he might win both bets. It has to do with the math involved when the line dances across the final result.
My other point related to what you mentioned. One side gets hammered. And while you have pointed out that Vegas books balk at taking big bets that skew the balance, many games still wind up out of balance to some degree because the public cannot be convinced to jump on the other side by line moves alone. This does happen. And if the public is right, the book is hard pressed to make anything on THAT game.
I believe (and the memory ain't what it used to be) that there was one Super Bowl where the public could not be convinced to take the dog and the books took an honest to God bath. My feeble memory says it was SF vs. San Diego. They moved the line and moved the line, but the public was IN LOVE with San Francisco. The 49ers mopped up and the books took a giant defeat.
At the end of the day, despite being totally clueless, I stand by my original statement. Two things cut into the profits of the book. The middle and the hammer on one side. And again, my use of the word "middle" has nothing to do with some guy playing both sides on the odd chance he might win both bets. It has to do with the math involved when the line dances across the final result.
Squeeze,
This could go on forever, best you try to see it for yourself. go to http://www.oddschecker.com/betting/mode/o/card/tennis-mercedescup/odds/1190854x/sid/667434 and click on davydenko, this gives the history of prices changes. Note Pinnacle are the only Caribbean book, Betfair and Betdaq are both exchanges. The thing is the land based books with real estate change little whereas pinnacle are like the two exchanges, basically trading, which is not bookmaking.
This could go on forever, best you try to see it for yourself. go to http://www.oddschecker.com/betting/mode/o/card/tennis-mercedescup/odds/1190854x/sid/667434 and click on davydenko, this gives the history of prices changes. Note Pinnacle are the only Caribbean book, Betfair and Betdaq are both exchanges. The thing is the land based books with real estate change little whereas pinnacle are like the two exchanges, basically trading, which is not bookmaking.
winbet said:
Agreed. We are never gong to see eye-to-eye on the definition of bookmaking. Pinnacle moves their lines frequently and they operate on the edge because of the small juice on their lines. I completely grant you that point. You call that trading. OK. As a bettor, I could care less about that stuff. I want the best line on my play, regardless of how many line changes there are.
Peace.
Squeezeplay...
You are right about the middles. Its true that the casinos worry about them..Just about as much as they worry about a huge underdog covering the money line or some Irish boxer beating the shit out of mike Tyson..
But those are risks they are willing to take. They know that in the long run they will always win more of these types of scenarios so losing one or two bouts to the public is not something that they sit around and sweat all season long.
just guessing but i would say the odds of a middle hitting are like 1 in 20 (not at all scientific) That means for every 19 wins the casino takes the public has 1. Thats nothing to worry the casinos. Thats why i dont believe that idea that casinos are worried about middlers. (be they pros or just public money )
Nice convo BTW....While debating these issues, i have stumbled onto a wondrous stat that might do big things for me this year in college football.
i have it capped to average out about 57% winning clap and this with a -6/+2 margin of error included for money management purposes!!!!
Cant wait cant wait for the season to begin!!!
You are right about the middles. Its true that the casinos worry about them..Just about as much as they worry about a huge underdog covering the money line or some Irish boxer beating the shit out of mike Tyson..
But those are risks they are willing to take. They know that in the long run they will always win more of these types of scenarios so losing one or two bouts to the public is not something that they sit around and sweat all season long.
just guessing but i would say the odds of a middle hitting are like 1 in 20 (not at all scientific) That means for every 19 wins the casino takes the public has 1. Thats nothing to worry the casinos. Thats why i dont believe that idea that casinos are worried about middlers. (be they pros or just public money )
Nice convo BTW....While debating these issues, i have stumbled onto a wondrous stat that might do big things for me this year in college football.
i have it capped to average out about 57% winning clap and this with a -6/+2 margin of error included for money management purposes!!!!
Cant wait cant wait for the season to begin!!!
redpimp said:
There really is nothing they can do about certain things that may cost them here and there. It's part of the game. I believe books try to minimize their exposure to unpleasant situations and that this explains certain movements or lack of movement in the line. In short, a move from -6.5 to -7.5 has to be taken very seriously by them. It would not be a move I would like to make if I were booking bets.
That is very cool that you might be onto something that looks very promising. And one thing we can all agree on ... bring on the football season!
