Super Bowl Sunday
3:30
San Francisco 1/H -1/2 {-110} vs Kansas City [Ceasars]
San Francisco -2 {-110} vs Kasas City [Ceasars]
San Francisco vs Kansas City u48 {-120} [Ceasars]
The pointspread in the Super Bowl rarely is a factor, exactly 14% of the time. The straight up winner of the Super Bowl is 47-7-1, 86% against the spread all time. That shouldn’t be a suprise in this Super Bowl and the trend will continue if San Francisco wins with such a short line. If you like them as i do history shows to not bet the moneyline.
The 49ers are one of the most personnel diverse teams in the NFL. They will likely be the most 21 personnel team (2 running backs, 1 tight end) that the Chiefs have seen all season. The Chiefs defense hasn’t been as effective against 21 personnel as they’ve been against other personnel. San Francisco uses the 21 personnel about 40% of their offensive snaps while the Kansas City defense has lined up on defense to defend it only about 10% of the time. The 49ers will also occasionally get into 22 personnel and it’s more uncertain how the Chiefs will line up to defend it.
The 49ers offense doesn’t really have a weakness ranking 1st in EPA/Rush, 1st in EPA/Pass & 1st in EPA/Play. They are able to mix down to down consistency with explosiveness. The Chiefs defense has played well for most of the season, but their toughest matchup of the year will be in their final game. They are great against the pass but leaky against the run. On defense Kansas City is 5th in EPA/Play, 4th in EPA/Pass and a miserable 28th in EPA/Rush.
Kansas City, meanwhile, plays a lot of cover 2 and cover 2 man relative to the league average. The 49ers might just be a matchup nightmare fot the Chiefs defense. The 49ers could sit back and feed CMC right into a Super Bowl MVP and never test the vaunted Chiefs secondary that plagued Lamar Jackson and Baltimore. San Francisco is 5th in the league against cover 2 and 1st in the league against cover 2 man with a 63% success rate. The 49ers most popular routes against these two defensive schemes are the post and screen.
Looking at the 49ers offensive route tree they’re effective at almost every spot. The strength of the Chiefs pass defense is defending the short passes so the 49ers will need to throw the ball on a curl, post, corner routes. Going back to the run game, the Chiefs should be very concerned on defense. Playing with a light box they are allowing 4.93 yards/carry, 28th in the league and in a heavy box 3.83 yards/carry, good for 19th in the league.
The Chiefs offense has played at a high level in the playoffs but the 49ers defense has been very good against the pass but have struggled against the run. San Francisco defensively are not as strong as they normally are but have a matchup advantage with Bosa and Armstead, especially if all pro guard Joe Thuney is out with a pec injury.
I look for San Francisco to take a lead into halftime and If they can play close to a stalemate with the Chiefs in the 2nd half i believe they will win the game. If this holds true the game total will finish under the total.
3:30
San Francisco 1/H -1/2 {-110} vs Kansas City [Ceasars]
San Francisco -2 {-110} vs Kasas City [Ceasars]
San Francisco vs Kansas City u48 {-120} [Ceasars]
The pointspread in the Super Bowl rarely is a factor, exactly 14% of the time. The straight up winner of the Super Bowl is 47-7-1, 86% against the spread all time. That shouldn’t be a suprise in this Super Bowl and the trend will continue if San Francisco wins with such a short line. If you like them as i do history shows to not bet the moneyline.
The 49ers are one of the most personnel diverse teams in the NFL. They will likely be the most 21 personnel team (2 running backs, 1 tight end) that the Chiefs have seen all season. The Chiefs defense hasn’t been as effective against 21 personnel as they’ve been against other personnel. San Francisco uses the 21 personnel about 40% of their offensive snaps while the Kansas City defense has lined up on defense to defend it only about 10% of the time. The 49ers will also occasionally get into 22 personnel and it’s more uncertain how the Chiefs will line up to defend it.
The 49ers offense doesn’t really have a weakness ranking 1st in EPA/Rush, 1st in EPA/Pass & 1st in EPA/Play. They are able to mix down to down consistency with explosiveness. The Chiefs defense has played well for most of the season, but their toughest matchup of the year will be in their final game. They are great against the pass but leaky against the run. On defense Kansas City is 5th in EPA/Play, 4th in EPA/Pass and a miserable 28th in EPA/Rush.
Kansas City, meanwhile, plays a lot of cover 2 and cover 2 man relative to the league average. The 49ers might just be a matchup nightmare fot the Chiefs defense. The 49ers could sit back and feed CMC right into a Super Bowl MVP and never test the vaunted Chiefs secondary that plagued Lamar Jackson and Baltimore. San Francisco is 5th in the league against cover 2 and 1st in the league against cover 2 man with a 63% success rate. The 49ers most popular routes against these two defensive schemes are the post and screen.
Looking at the 49ers offensive route tree they’re effective at almost every spot. The strength of the Chiefs pass defense is defending the short passes so the 49ers will need to throw the ball on a curl, post, corner routes. Going back to the run game, the Chiefs should be very concerned on defense. Playing with a light box they are allowing 4.93 yards/carry, 28th in the league and in a heavy box 3.83 yards/carry, good for 19th in the league.
The Chiefs offense has played at a high level in the playoffs but the 49ers defense has been very good against the pass but have struggled against the run. San Francisco defensively are not as strong as they normally are but have a matchup advantage with Bosa and Armstead, especially if all pro guard Joe Thuney is out with a pec injury.
I look for San Francisco to take a lead into halftime and If they can play close to a stalemate with the Chiefs in the 2nd half i believe they will win the game. If this holds true the game total will finish under the total.
