Super Bowl Betting Trends and Systems
Simply put, Super Bowl Sunday is sports betting’s biggest day, regardless of which teams are competing for the coveted Lombardi Trophy. Here is my annual look at the Super Bowl betting trends and systems you’ll want to know before making your bets.This year’s matchup is a rematch of just four years ago in this same game, as San Francisco looks for revenge on Kansas City. In terms of years separated, it’s the closest Super Bowl “rematch” since Dallas and Buffalo met in consecutive seasons in 1993 and 1994. However, while the teams are similar to four years ago in their coaching staffs, star players, and strategies, plenty of unique things in the matchup will make it a completely different contest.
The Chiefs are a #3 seed this time around after playing as a #2 in 2020. They are still led by QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce on offense, but it can be legitimately argued that the defense did more to get them to this point than any other unit.
San Francisco is again a #1 seed but has swapped QB Jimmy Garoppolo for Brock Purdy and has a major offensive weapon addition in RB Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers were anything but convincing in their path to get to Las Vegas, surviving come-from-behind contests at home in both the divisional and championship rounds of the playoffs.
Oh, one other difference to note from the game four years ago. Kansas City wound up being a 1-point favorite in that contest, winning 31-20. This time around, the line seems to be holding fairly tight at San Francisco -1.5. There’s little reason to suspect we won’t witness a very competitive contest.
While the Super Bowl is only one game, the number of betting options available is beyond comprehension and ranges anywhere from the simple point spread and total to the most exotic of prop options. You can even bet other sports happenings that day against the stats or results of the football game.
If you’ve never taken the time to digest all of the betting opportunities available on game day, be sure to do so because, at the very least, you will be amazed by the creativity of the oddsmakers. Trust me, I used to be one and contributed my fair share of market ideas to the pot. Having been on both sides of the counter in recent years, I find my mind racing every time I watch a Super Bowl game.
With this year’s Super Bowl game being the 58th in the history of the National Football League, of course, a sample size of 57 previous games can lead us to definitive trends and patterns that have formed. All of these can help us project how the upcoming matchup might play out, as there are similarities between this and past games. I recently read a quote on Google that said: “Without big data analytics, companies are blind and deaf, wandering out onto the web like deer on a freeway”. As the Director of Analytics at VSiN and an avid sports bettor, I feel the exact same way.
As always, the two weeks between the conference title games and SB58 will be information overload regarding the teams, players, and matchups that top analysts feel will play a role in the game. You will be subjected to opinions from the usual suspects, plus celebrities and even animals in some cases.
Thus, I won’t be adding mine to the mix here. However, what I will be providing for you in this piece is a number of recent trends and patterns that have emerged from the Super Bowl over the years. Perhaps bits from this article will prove to be the ultimate decider of your final plays. Perhaps not. Regardless, I feel the information you’ll pick up here will make you more knowledgeable, which may or may not help you to impress the folks you gather with on game day. Trust me, it works.
Hopefully, with everything we’re offering over the next two weeks on our VSiN network, your gameday will be complete with Cashin’ Tickets, since as VSiN’s Brent Musburger says, that’s what it’s all about. So, read on as I look back at 57 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to be confident in your SB58 wagers. I’ve also added a but to this piece for 2024, uncovering some of the top trends and other data info pertaining specifically to the 49ers and Chiefs as they get ready for the contest.
Super Bowl Game Stat Angles
I always like to remind people that over the two-week break, both teams will get to know the other’s tendencies inside and out, as their coaching staffs will pour over film and prepare a game plan so thoroughly that nothing will surprise them.Of course, extensive planning didn’t seem to help either team slow down the opposing quarterback in last year’s 38-35 shootout, nor did it work for the Bengals in stopping MVP WR Cooper Kupp of the Rams two years ago, as he beat them for two touchdowns after a season in which he caught 145 passes for 16 scores on a previously unheard of 191 targets.
The teams that get to this point earn the spot, and since the NFC’s run of dominance ended in the late 90s, I can think of only two games in which there was anything close to a “physical mismatch” in the Super Bowl. One was Seattle’s blowout of Denver in 2014, and the other was in the Buccaneers’ 2021 win over the Chiefs.
Of course, Tampa Bay was the first team to play this championship contest on its home field, an obvious shock to the system. The Rams were the second in 2022, but the Bengals were far better prepared than Kansas City a year prior and made it a competitive game.
The point I’m trying to make is that the game most often comes down to preparation and execution. This execution can be measured by statistics. Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that I have found to have a great impact on who has won Super Bowl games. The following trends demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
* Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 42-15 SU & 40-14-3 ATS (74.1%). The Chiefs outrushed the Eagles last February, 158-115.
* Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 44-13 SU and 37-17-3 ATS (68.5%). This one actually lost last year as the Eagles and QB Jalen Hurts outgained Mahomes and the Chiefs in this category 8.0-6.7.
* In the 45 previous Super Bowls in which there was a turnover advantage for either team, the team that had fewer turnovers has lost just eight times, going 35-9-1 ATS (79.5%). Strangely, two of those outright losses came in the last two years, as the Chiefs wound up being on the favorable end of a 1-0 turnover decision.
* Teams that win the time of possession battle are 41-16 SU and 39-15-3 ATS (72.2%) in the history of the Super Bowl, but the Eagles were the latest to lose on that edge, holding the ball for about 11-1/2 minutes longer than Kansas City.
* Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 40-6 SU and 36-9-1 ATS (80%). Amazingly, four of those outright losses were in the last nine games, including last year.
* Teams that win all four categories are 26-0 SU and 24-1-1 ATS (96%). The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots.
The Buccaneers were the last team to sweep the four categories in SB55 and won handily. In last year’s game, the Eagles actually claimed three of the four categories but lost, demonstrating how confounding the Chiefs win actually turned out to be.
For those of you looking to project this type of information for 2024, turnovers can be hard to project, although the amount of pressure each team’s defense puts on an opposing quarterback can prove to be a good indicator.
The other stats should be relatively predictable for any advanced handicapper or service regularly using sophisticated statistical models for simulation. Forecasting these numbers accurately can certainly be worth the effort, assuming the game plays out close to the norms.
I actually produce a follow-up article forecasting the team and individual statistical numbers that gets published on VSiN.com in the week leading up to the game. Watch for that as it has been quite successful for me.
In-Game Scoring Super Bowl Betting Trends
* In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.1 PPG, with the average losing score being 16.4 PPG and an average winning margin of 13.7 PPG. However, interestingly, 18 of the last 20 games have been decided by 14 points or less, a continuing sign of a much more competitive era in the NFL. One of those two blowouts was in 2021. This year’s game and its tight point spread again point to a competitive game.* The Giants in 2008 were the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark. The Patriots did it again in 2019 with the lowest winning point total ever, 13 points.
* Since the epic 35-31 duel between Pittsburgh and Dallas in Super Bowl XIII in 1979, there have been 28 teams to hit the 30-point mark in this game, their record: 25-3 SU and 24-4 ATS. Of course, last year, Philadelphia put up 35 points, the most ever for a losing team.
* There have been 22 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…1-21 SU and ATS (4.5%). This is another trend illustrating just how improbable the Patriots’ 2019 win was.
* More on the recent competitiveness of the game,of the only 18 games to be decided by less than a touchdown, half of them have been in the last 16 years.
Past Super Bowl Line and Total Patterns
Since the turn of the century, what it takes to reach Super Bowl success has come and gone in waves. In the first few years of the 2000s, it was top seeds or teams that achieved lofty won-lost marks in the regular season fulfilling expectations.Then, something changed. In the span from 2006-2013, seven teams that played on Wild Card weekend played in the Super Bowl game, and six of them won! The 2006 Super Bowl run by Pittsburgh was significant as I believe it dramatically changed the belief of teams in what it takes to become a champion in the NFL. The Steelers were the first #6 seed that emerged to win the Lombardi Trophy. The assumptions that winning in the regular season, earning a bye week, and capitalizing on home-field advantage were the recipe to postseason success were now in doubt.
Then, the secen-year span of the Super Bowl from 2014-20 seemed to bring about a return to “normalcy”, with all but two competing teams having won at home in their conference title games after enjoying byes in the Wild Card games. However, underdogs did win outright in four of those seven games presenting another wrinkle to deal with.
The 2021 & 2022 games threw us for a new loop, with a 5th-seeded Tampa Bay team winning in upset fashion and the Rams winning a matchup between two #4 seeds but not covering the Vegas number. That peculiar seed matchup marked the first Super Bowl in the modern seeding era, where neither a #1 or #2 seed was in the contest.
Of course, it was a short-lived trend in looking at last year’s matchup of #1 seeds. Now we have a #1 vs. a #3, the first such contest since SB41 in ’07 when #3 Indianapolis took down #1 Chicago 29-17. However, despite all of the recent seed craziness, one thing is for sure lately, and you’ll see more details in a bit, we are in the throngs of an underdog-dominated Super Bowl era.
All of this has naturally made it difficult for handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings and historical templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the title game.
Several years ago, I convinced myself about the motivational edge of being the lower-seeded team in these games, and it has performed remarkably since. Perhaps there’s something else you’ll like even better as we dig into ATS, money line, and total trends.
As you read this, I must remind you that the 2024 playoffs were far from predictable although the teams in Super Bowl 58 are not unexpected by any measure.
ATS and Moneyline Super Bowl Betting Trends
* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 35-21 SU but own an ATS mark of 25-28-3 (47.2%), with the 1982 game having been a pick em’ point spread. However, over the past 22 years, underdogs own a 16-6 ATS (72.7%) edge, including 12-4 ATS in the L16. Kansas City pulled the outright upset last year as 1.5-point underdogs, 38-35. For this season, early line action finds San Francisco as a small 1.5-point favorite over Kansas City.* Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium. Still, there hasn’t been a favorite of that magnitude since the Patriots in 2008.
* The straight-up winner is 47-7-3 ATS (87%) in the 57 previous Super Bowls. This is the highest mark of any playoff round. Interestingly, one of those ATS losses did occur in 2022, as Cincinnati became the first underdog to cover a point spread without winning on a Super Bowl line of less than 6 points. The general thought is that champions typically leave little doubt in this game. Consider this if you have any concerns about laying points with San Francisco or, alternatively, taking a moneyline wager with the underdog Chiefs.
* The NFC owns a slight 29-28 outright lead and maintains a 28-26-3 (51.9%) ATS edge all time. However, AFC teams are 7-3 ATS in L10. San Francisco represents the NFC, and Kansas City the AFC.
* The team that is the better playoff seed is just 2-15-2 ATS (11.8%) in the last 26 Super Bowl games! Note that in 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023, equal seeds matched up. The 2024 finds #1 San Francisco taking on #3 Kansas City.
* The team with the better record going into the Super Bowl game is 30-19 SU all-time but has lost 11 of the last 13, and is on a 1-15 ATS skid since 2004, including the Rams (12-5) ATS loss to the Bengals (10-7) in 2022. New England’s epic comeback against Atlanta in the 2017 game was the only ATS win. This premier trend will once again be in play, as San Francisco was 12-5 in the regular season, and Kansas City was 11-6.