Super Bowl Betting Trends and Systems
Simply put, Super Bowl Sunday is sports betting’s biggest day, regardless of which teams are competing for the coveted Lombardi Trophy. Here is my annual look at the Super Bowl betting trends and systems you’ll want to know before making your bets.This year’s matchup is a rematch of just four years ago in this same game, as San Francisco looks for revenge on Kansas City. In terms of years separated, it’s the closest Super Bowl “rematch” since Dallas and Buffalo met in consecutive seasons in 1993 and 1994. However, while the teams are similar to four years ago in their coaching staffs, star players, and strategies, plenty of unique things in the matchup will make it a completely different contest.
The Chiefs are a #3 seed this time around after playing as a #2 in 2020. They are still led by QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce on offense, but it can be legitimately argued that the defense did more to get them to this point than any other unit.
San Francisco is again a #1 seed but has swapped QB Jimmy Garoppolo for Brock Purdy and has a major offensive weapon addition in RB Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers were anything but convincing in their path to get to Las Vegas, surviving come-from-behind contests at home in both the divisional and championship rounds of the playoffs.
Oh, one other difference to note from the game four years ago. Kansas City wound up being a 1-point favorite in that contest, winning 31-20. This time around, the line seems to be holding fairly tight at San Francisco -1.5. There’s little reason to suspect we won’t witness a very competitive contest.
While the Super Bowl is only one game, the number of betting options available is beyond comprehension and ranges anywhere from the simple point spread and total to the most exotic of prop options. You can even bet other sports happenings that day against the stats or results of the football game.
If you’ve never taken the time to digest all of the betting opportunities available on game day, be sure to do so because, at the very least, you will be amazed by the creativity of the oddsmakers. Trust me, I used to be one and contributed my fair share of market ideas to the pot. Having been on both sides of the counter in recent years, I find my mind racing every time I watch a Super Bowl game.
With this year’s Super Bowl game being the 58th in the history of the National Football League, of course, a sample size of 57 previous games can lead us to definitive trends and patterns that have formed. All of these can help us project how the upcoming matchup might play out, as there are similarities between this and past games. I recently read a quote on Google that said: “Without big data analytics, companies are blind and deaf, wandering out onto the web like deer on a freeway”. As the Director of Analytics at VSiN and an avid sports bettor, I feel the exact same way.
As always, the two weeks between the conference title games and SB58 will be information overload regarding the teams, players, and matchups that top analysts feel will play a role in the game. You will be subjected to opinions from the usual suspects, plus celebrities and even animals in some cases.
Thus, I won’t be adding mine to the mix here. However, what I will be providing for you in this piece is a number of recent trends and patterns that have emerged from the Super Bowl over the years. Perhaps bits from this article will prove to be the ultimate decider of your final plays. Perhaps not. Regardless, I feel the information you’ll pick up here will make you more knowledgeable, which may or may not help you to impress the folks you gather with on game day. Trust me, it works.
Hopefully, with everything we’re offering over the next two weeks on our VSiN network, your gameday will be complete with Cashin’ Tickets, since as VSiN’s Brent Musburger says, that’s what it’s all about. So, read on as I look back at 57 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to be confident in your SB58 wagers. I’ve also added a but to this piece for 2024, uncovering some of the top trends and other data info pertaining specifically to the 49ers and Chiefs as they get ready for the contest.
Super Bowl Game Stat Angles
I always like to remind people that over the two-week break, both teams will get to know the other’s tendencies inside and out, as their coaching staffs will pour over film and prepare a game plan so thoroughly that nothing will surprise them.Of course, extensive planning didn’t seem to help either team slow down the opposing quarterback in last year’s 38-35 shootout, nor did it work for the Bengals in stopping MVP WR Cooper Kupp of the Rams two years ago, as he beat them for two touchdowns after a season in which he caught 145 passes for 16 scores on a previously unheard of 191 targets.
The teams that get to this point earn the spot, and since the NFC’s run of dominance ended in the late 90s, I can think of only two games in which there was anything close to a “physical mismatch” in the Super Bowl. One was Seattle’s blowout of Denver in 2014, and the other was in the Buccaneers’ 2021 win over the Chiefs.
Of course, Tampa Bay was the first team to play this championship contest on its home field, an obvious shock to the system. The Rams were the second in 2022, but the Bengals were far better prepared than Kansas City a year prior and made it a competitive game.
The point I’m trying to make is that the game most often comes down to preparation and execution. This execution can be measured by statistics. Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that I have found to have a great impact on who has won Super Bowl games. The following trends demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
* Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 42-15 SU & 40-14-3 ATS (74.1%). The Chiefs outrushed the Eagles last February, 158-115.
* Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 44-13 SU and 37-17-3 ATS (68.5%). This one actually lost last year as the Eagles and QB Jalen Hurts outgained Mahomes and the Chiefs in this category 8.0-6.7.
* In the 45 previous Super Bowls in which there was a turnover advantage for either team, the team that had fewer turnovers has lost just eight times, going 35-9-1 ATS (79.5%). Strangely, two of those outright losses came in the last two years, as the Chiefs wound up being on the favorable end of a 1-0 turnover decision.
* Teams that win the time of possession battle are 41-16 SU and 39-15-3 ATS (72.2%) in the history of the Super Bowl, but the Eagles were the latest to lose on that edge, holding the ball for about 11-1/2 minutes longer than Kansas City.
* Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 40-6 SU and 36-9-1 ATS (80%). Amazingly, four of those outright losses were in the last nine games, including last year.
* Teams that win all four categories are 26-0 SU and 24-1-1 ATS (96%). The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots.
The Buccaneers were the last team to sweep the four categories in SB55 and won handily. In last year’s game, the Eagles actually claimed three of the four categories but lost, demonstrating how confounding the Chiefs win actually turned out to be.
For those of you looking to project this type of information for 2024, turnovers can be hard to project, although the amount of pressure each team’s defense puts on an opposing quarterback can prove to be a good indicator.
The other stats should be relatively predictable for any advanced handicapper or service regularly using sophisticated statistical models for simulation. Forecasting these numbers accurately can certainly be worth the effort, assuming the game plays out close to the norms.
I actually produce a follow-up article forecasting the team and individual statistical numbers that gets published on VSiN.com in the week leading up to the game. Watch for that as it has been quite successful for me.
In-Game Scoring Super Bowl Betting Trends
* In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.1 PPG, with the average losing score being 16.4 PPG and an average winning margin of 13.7 PPG. However, interestingly, 18 of the last 20 games have been decided by 14 points or less, a continuing sign of a much more competitive era in the NFL. One of those two blowouts was in 2021. This year’s game and its tight point spread again point to a competitive game.* The Giants in 2008 were the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark. The Patriots did it again in 2019 with the lowest winning point total ever, 13 points.
* Since the epic 35-31 duel between Pittsburgh and Dallas in Super Bowl XIII in 1979, there have been 28 teams to hit the 30-point mark in this game, their record: 25-3 SU and 24-4 ATS. Of course, last year, Philadelphia put up 35 points, the most ever for a losing team.
* There have been 22 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…1-21 SU and ATS (4.5%). This is another trend illustrating just how improbable the Patriots’ 2019 win was.
* More on the recent competitiveness of the game,of the only 18 games to be decided by less than a touchdown, half of them have been in the last 16 years.
Past Super Bowl Line and Total Patterns
Since the turn of the century, what it takes to reach Super Bowl success has come and gone in waves. In the first few years of the 2000s, it was top seeds or teams that achieved lofty won-lost marks in the regular season fulfilling expectations.Then, something changed. In the span from 2006-2013, seven teams that played on Wild Card weekend played in the Super Bowl game, and six of them won! The 2006 Super Bowl run by Pittsburgh was significant as I believe it dramatically changed the belief of teams in what it takes to become a champion in the NFL. The Steelers were the first #6 seed that emerged to win the Lombardi Trophy. The assumptions that winning in the regular season, earning a bye week, and capitalizing on home-field advantage were the recipe to postseason success were now in doubt.
Then, the secen-year span of the Super Bowl from 2014-20 seemed to bring about a return to “normalcy”, with all but two competing teams having won at home in their conference title games after enjoying byes in the Wild Card games. However, underdogs did win outright in four of those seven games presenting another wrinkle to deal with.
The 2021 & 2022 games threw us for a new loop, with a 5th-seeded Tampa Bay team winning in upset fashion and the Rams winning a matchup between two #4 seeds but not covering the Vegas number. That peculiar seed matchup marked the first Super Bowl in the modern seeding era, where neither a #1 or #2 seed was in the contest.
Of course, it was a short-lived trend in looking at last year’s matchup of #1 seeds. Now we have a #1 vs. a #3, the first such contest since SB41 in ’07 when #3 Indianapolis took down #1 Chicago 29-17. However, despite all of the recent seed craziness, one thing is for sure lately, and you’ll see more details in a bit, we are in the throngs of an underdog-dominated Super Bowl era.
All of this has naturally made it difficult for handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings and historical templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the title game.
Several years ago, I convinced myself about the motivational edge of being the lower-seeded team in these games, and it has performed remarkably since. Perhaps there’s something else you’ll like even better as we dig into ATS, money line, and total trends.
As you read this, I must remind you that the 2024 playoffs were far from predictable although the teams in Super Bowl 58 are not unexpected by any measure.
ATS and Moneyline Super Bowl Betting Trends
* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 35-21 SU but own an ATS mark of 25-28-3 (47.2%), with the 1982 game having been a pick em’ point spread. However, over the past 22 years, underdogs own a 16-6 ATS (72.7%) edge, including 12-4 ATS in the L16. Kansas City pulled the outright upset last year as 1.5-point underdogs, 38-35. For this season, early line action finds San Francisco as a small 1.5-point favorite over Kansas City.* Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium. Still, there hasn’t been a favorite of that magnitude since the Patriots in 2008.
* The straight-up winner is 47-7-3 ATS (87%) in the 57 previous Super Bowls. This is the highest mark of any playoff round. Interestingly, one of those ATS losses did occur in 2022, as Cincinnati became the first underdog to cover a point spread without winning on a Super Bowl line of less than 6 points. The general thought is that champions typically leave little doubt in this game. Consider this if you have any concerns about laying points with San Francisco or, alternatively, taking a moneyline wager with the underdog Chiefs.
* The NFC owns a slight 29-28 outright lead and maintains a 28-26-3 (51.9%) ATS edge all time. However, AFC teams are 7-3 ATS in L10. San Francisco represents the NFC, and Kansas City the AFC.
* The team that is the better playoff seed is just 2-15-2 ATS (11.8%) in the last 26 Super Bowl games! Note that in 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023, equal seeds matched up. The 2024 finds #1 San Francisco taking on #3 Kansas City.
* The team with the better record going into the Super Bowl game is 30-19 SU all-time but has lost 11 of the last 13, and is on a 1-15 ATS skid since 2004, including the Rams (12-5) ATS loss to the Bengals (10-7) in 2022. New England’s epic comeback against Atlanta in the 2017 game was the only ATS win. This premier trend will once again be in play, as San Francisco was 12-5 in the regular season, and Kansas City was 11-6.
* Teams playing in their first Super Bowl against an experienced club are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine. However, this trend is becoming more and more scarce and won’t apply this year. We were very close to seeing it happen with the Lions, but their 24-7 halftime lead over San Francisco unraveled in the second half.
If you’re wondering, San Francisco is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in seven prior SB appearances but has lost its last two and hasn’t won a title since 1995. Kansas City is 3-2 SU and ATS in its prior five appearances in this game and is looking to become the first team since New England in 2004 and 2005 to repeat.
* In the last six matchups between #1 seeds, underdogs are 6-0 SU and ATS, with three of the games being decided by double-digits. The #1-#3 matchup has occurred twice in the last 20 seasons, with #3’s owning a 2-0 ATS mark.
Over/Under Super Bowl Betting Trends
* Overall, in the 55 Super Bowl games that have had totals, the results are nearly split 28 Overs, 27 Unders, 1 push. Prior to the 2023 Over, the most recent four had gone Under, the first time there was that much of an Under streak since the four straight in 2005-2008. The 2023 game went Over by 21.5 points, the biggest margin on that wagering option since Philadelphia beat New England 41-33 in 2018 on a total of 49.* There have been 46.5 PPG scored in the Super Bowl, on posted totals averaging 45.0. However, the early years’ totals were often in the 30s, dragging that number down significantly. More recently, the last 19 years have seen an average posted total of 50, with 47.7 PPG scored. Eleven of the 19 games in that era went Under.
* Of note, on the 12 past Super Bowl games with totals in the 50s, Under is 9-4 (69.2%). Of course, this lost last year. Totals in the 40s are on a 6-2 Under (75%) run. With the total sitting at 47.5, this will be in play.
* The 2023 Super Bowl was one of only 19 in history that saw both teams reach the 20-point mark. Fifteen of those were Overs. Odds makers expect both teams to score in the 20s here (24.5-23), as evidenced by the line/total combination.
Six-Point Teaser Super Bowl Betting Trends
* Looking back at the 55 past Super Bowls in terms of six-point teaser trends, favorites are 37-19 (66.1%) while underdogs are 38-17-1 (69.1%), relatively close performance marks. Note that the 1982 game was a pick ’em point spread so no favorite or underdog was measured. However, in the last 22 seasons, there has been a big separation as favorites are just 12-10 (54.5%) while underdogs are 19-3 (86.4%). An underdog 6-point teaser would put Kansas City at +7.5, likely a very attractive wager for most bettors.* In terms of the two different conferences, AFC teams are 37-19-1 (66.1%), and NFC teams are 40-17 (70.2%) in the history of the Super Bowl game on 6-point teaser bets.
* Concerning Super Bowl totals, in the 56 games that had posted numbers, Over is 38-18 (67.9%), and Under is 37-18-1 (67.3%) on 6-point teasers. For the ’23 game, Over teaser bettors won and Under teaser bettors lost convincingly.
Teams’ Regular Season Offensive Statistics Trends
- Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season are only 7-13-1 ATS (33.3%) in the last 21 Super Bowl games. San Francisco was #3 in the NFL in scoring this year at 28.9 PPG, while Kansas City was #15, 7.1 PPG worse.
- The ability to run the football has been much overrated regarding Super Bowl success. Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are just 5-14 ATS (26.3%) since 2005. Those who averaged more yards per rush are 7-12 ATS (36.8%) in that span. San Francisco owns significant edges in both categories.
- Overall passing yardage has also meant little in terms of Super Bowl success, with teams owning an edge in total offensive passing yardage going only 9-13 ATS (40.9%) in the last 22 games. San Francisco holds a 11+ YPG edge in overall passing yardage.
- Big play potential hasn’t proven to be a key ingredient to Super Bowl victories either, as teams gaining more passing yards per attempt are on a 7-10 ATS (41.2%) stumble. The 49ers were the #1 ranked team in the NFL in passing efficiency in the regular season.
- Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season also own no edge when it comes to Super Bowl success, going 2-10 SU and 1-11 ATS (8.3%) in the last 12! Those with yards per play edges are 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS (16.7%) in that same span. However, Kansas City did defy these trends last year, another sign of that being a strange outcome. San Francisco holds this “edge” in 2024.
- Offensive yards per point has proven to be an effective statistical indicator for FADING teams, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point are just 7-14 ATS (33.3%) in the last 21 Super Bowls. San Francisco again holds an edge here, 13.8 to 16.1.
- The offensive turnovers statistic has also been quite misleading in terms of Super Bowl handicapping, with teams owning an edge in this stat going just 7-13 ATS (35%) in the Super Bowl since 2003. The 49ers tied for sixth in the NFL in offensive turnovers, while the Chiefs were 23rd.
- Teams that converted third down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season also have a poor trend mark, 8-14 ATS (36.4%) in the last 22 Super Bowls. These two teams made up half of the league’s top six in this category in the regular season, with the 49ers owning a slight edge.
Regular Season Defensive Statistics Super Bowl Betting Trends
- Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season have gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS (75%) in the last eight Super Bowl games. However, the Eagles did lose last year. Kansas City holds this slight edge by 0.2 PPG.
- Teams that allowed fewer rushing yards per game have gone 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS (87.5%) in the Super Bowl games of the last eight seasons. Those that allow fewer yards per rush attempt are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS (75%) in that same span. San Francisco owns the better rushing defense, both in overall yardage and yards per attempt.
- Super Bowl playoff teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed over their opponent are 11-10 ATS over the last 21 seasons, but have lost five straight against the point spread. Kansas City owns a significant edge in this category and has actually increased the advantage in the postseason.
- Teams with the edge in defensive pass efficiency are 7-5 ATS (58.3%) over the last 12 years. The Chiefs were the league’s #3 team in this stat this season.
- Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively are also just 6-11 ATS (35.3%) since 2007, but 6-6 ATS (50%) since 2012 in the Super Bowl. Teams with an edge in yards per play are 7-10 ATS (41.2%) since 2007, but 7-5 ATS (58.3%) in the last 12. Chalk both of these edges up to the Chiefs.
- Defensive yards per point should only be given serious consideration for Super Bowl Sunday if you are fading the team with the edge, 7-11 ATS (38.9%) since 2006. Give San Francisco the edge here, 17.3 to 16.8.
- Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are 10-12 ATS (45.4%) since 2002 in Super Bowl play, with no streaks greater than two either way. San Francisco forced 10 more turnovers in the regular season than the Chiefs.
- Teams that stopped third down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are on an 8-6 ATS (57.1%) run in the last 14 Super Bowl games. Kansas City was 10th in the NFL, San Francisco was just 24th.
One final thing, for those of you who like to follow the line moves closely, hoping that sharp money may be the cause, consider that bettors are just 8-8 ATS (50%) in the last 16 Super Bowl games in which they moved an opening line, but 11-6 (64.7%) in the last 17 games in which they moved totals. This includes a streak of six straight winners on total moves, so perhaps this could be an emerging strategy to follow for recreational bettors.
The line move winning percentages were more significant in the earlier playoff rounds. Be sure to follow that action in the hours leading up to kickoff if you tend to believe in this type of analysis. For what it’s worth, the early action since the line/total opened seems to be favoring Kansas City (+2.5 to +1.5), with no notable move yet on the total.
