Paying for Picks . Would like everyone to chime in ...

[heart222]

Hi As a broker for 25 years and a gambler for 50+ i may have omethoughts on this. I work fora full service firm with a full research dept. I still take a internet based market service as they can talk about whats happening minute by minute. It just takes one trade to pay for the stuff so well worth it.
As arecreational gambler i take steeles newsletter and also picked up a copy of docs red book. the red book had 225 trades with 65% or better histories and they held they up this year.
So I think these services can keep you out of trouble. team a is playing team b history is team a has won 8 out of last 10 yrs ats. also team b is 1-7 on the road so am i going to be mezmorized by the points? I dont think so. SO that sort of info is what helps. steeles can drive you crazy but i bet his 4 star and dog and pro system each week thats 4 bets and they more than pay for the service. in adition the data keeps me out of trouble.
we all followed ace-ace this year he is pretty good would you pay for his service?
Lets face it they have access to bigger computers and more data t han most of us. so is steele worth $100.00 a year I think so.
I think for most its an ego thing. the name of the game is winning regardless of how you get there. just some thoughts

 

[WorldNumberOne]

interesting thoughts . i appreciate everyone who responded.

i do find it interesting how people will not pay someone for a service no matter what..

even if that person has hit 60 % year after year after year...

i too like doing my own homework and form my own opinions. but if i had 0 time to spend and still loved the action and watching sports , and wanted to invest , and i knew of someone who had proven himself, i would consider hiring them..

just like i would if i wanted to get involved in the stock market.

 

[HacheMan]

I know the consensus is never pay for picks and every tout is a scam artist, but ...

Example:

What if a well know poster , liked by everyone, posted his NBA totals selections for 3 or 4 years and was tracked .

He posted a fair amount of picks , lets say 150 a year .

He was able to hit 60 to 62 % every year.

He then decided to sell his picks . Lets say for $ 49.00 a month . Reasonable price.

Would you sign up ?

Dont say ya i would sign up and post the picks for everyone to see.. Keep it real..

Surprised at the answers, unless you guys haven't thoroughly read #1's question. If someone was capable of hitting 62% EVERY year as World #1 asked, I'd throw him a measly $49 per month, get real. You're guaranteed to profit immensely and I wouldn't have to waste my time doing the capping myself! lol

 

[Rainbow]

#1 if a Handicapper would give you his plays after he blacks out the screen, what good is the play.

#2 if he decides to sell his information, he cant do nothing but hurt the entire market.

#3 Why would any handicapper that wins consistenly would even think about selling his info. I know alot of smart people, not one would even think about selling anything. they will give it to you for free after they black the screen out.

#4 now a tout service is different where they give the East coast one side and the West coast the opposite side.

 

[Rainbow]

Darryl Parsons hit it right on the head when he said the leftovers, meaning why would you want to buy info after the number has moved. the handicapper bets and than you get the leftovers WOW. you have a loose screw missing if you decide to get involved with a tout service. they never tell the truth. tout services are the biggest liars out there. back to the handicapper, why would you think that he would sell his info to people, he only can hurt his self. I rest my case to this topic.

 

[ChuckSims]

The sharpest bettors I know in Las Vegas keep a very low profile. The phonies are the ones that sell picks to the suckers.

 

[Jarbo]

Sounds like somone is trying to drum up business for Theerodfather. Haven't we all been through this ------- several times?

:smoker2:

 

[WorldNumberOne]

Sounds like somone is trying to drum up business for Theerodfather. Haven't we all been through this ------- several times?

:smoker2:

not in the least.. dont even know who that is..

was just asking a hypothetical..

 

[wantitall4moi]

If a guy is actually winning and the person buing picks was playing those plays and those plays ONLY, then I would say that 90% of all bettors would be smart to buy the plays.


I even think 90% is low for the percentage of guys that lose money gambling.

The thing is the guys that lose (and it is the VAST majority) they feel alot "better" losing with their own picks.

Most guys also fool themselves and think they actually win. It doesn't even have to be 60-62% if a guy could simply hit 53-55% and do it consistantly then most guys that bet would be smart to pay him.

If guys really looked at what they have won and what theyhave lost, and could see the difference they would be shocked I am sure. But that is the mentaility of gamblers. They kid themselves into thinking they win.

Not sure how many guys have commented in this thread. But statistaclly speaking 1 in 10 is making money overall. I also dont want to hear about the "intelligence of internet gamblers, or rx posters. That is another fantasy that people create to make themselves feel better.

If internet gamblers were so smart then these websites wouldnt be upgrading every 6 weeks, and if the RX was so sharp overall then books surely wouldn't be falling all over themselves to advertise here, especially the start uyp places that can't afford to get beat consistantly.



Would I pay for picks. Probably not. But only because I do it myself at a decent enough rate as not to have to. I also do not bet too many games one way, except in NCAA hoops and football, and only there because the volume is high enough so I can make a large enough amount of plays to make a minimal winning percentage profittable.

But if I was losing on a consistant basis and could find someone that was credible and had a decent enough proven win rate or at least gave the right answers to the right questions, I might. But overall there are not a lot of guys that win consistantly enough to follow, and probably none actually sell their plays. Most of the time one would be jut as well off flipping a coin.

It is a double edged sword. If a tout is winning, then the guys paying him ose more slowly because at least the tout is giving them enough winners to compensate for the loser the customers bet on their own.

It (gambling)is all just a big fantasy. Touts kid themselves and others by claiming they win at huge percentages. Bettors kid themselves and others by claiming they make money doing it, or at east do not lose a ot of money doing it.

In most case both guys are lying or oblivious to reality, so the game continnues.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

thank you, Wantit .

well crafted reply staying on topic..

 

[phdinsports]

Come on guys!! leave your egos at home! 60-62% 150 games per year, 4 years, is too good to be true!! Thats why it's a hypothetical question. Plus 24 units (at 1 unit per bet) per year minimum, is well worth the 400-450 per year fee, even if you just bet 100 bucks a game!!!! For all you big players that bet 500+ a game, it's unreasonable to think you would not "waste" less then a single bet, for an entire season of picks by a person with such a proven track record!!!!!!

 

[HacheMan]

Come on guys!! leave your egos at home! 60-62% 150 games per year, 4 years, is too good to be true!! Thats why it's a hypothetical question. Plus 24 units (at 1 unit per bet) per year minimum, is well worth the 400-450 per year fee, even if you just bet 100 bucks a game!!!! For all you big players that bet 500+ a game, it's unreasonable to think you would not "waste" less then a single bet, for an entire season of picks by a person with such a proven track record!!!!!!

Same point I tried to make up above...........
Well said........

 

[phdinsports]

Thanks Hache Man!

 

[Bostongambler]

I don't care if it is some old lady that lives on the street. If she can pick consistent winners why not.


The thing is that there are so many cons and scammers in this business that you really really have to be careful

 

[cincy_]

There is nothing wrong with buying picks that contain some sort of reasoning. I will buy Sixth Sense's picks next football season.

Touts don't sell information. They simply sell a set of picks, they lie about their record, set a price according to how much a person can afford and their only "reasoning" is "inside information".


I would pay (and do pay) for information ...

I would never pay for picks

 

[PatPatriot]

Its much more fun to do your own home work,and get the satifaction from winning, but when you don't have the time,i don't see anything wrong with paying 50 bucks a month for their efforts.

What i would like to see is someone that sells picks to man up and say you can have a month of picks or the first 50 to either observe or play....If you like what you see then you pay whatever for the next month....If the guy is worth his salt you'll pay if you don't then its your loss.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

Its much more fun to do your own home work,and get the satifaction from winning, but when you don't have the time,i don't see anything wrong with paying 50 bucks a month for their efforts.

What i would like to see is someone that sells picks to man up and say you can have a month of picks or the first 50 to either observe or play....If you like what you see then you pay whatever for the next month....If the guy is worth his salt you'll pay if you don't then its your loss.

excellent idea...

 

[UWinSports]

If he was tracked, posted 150 plays a year, and hit 60%, then you would be a fool not to pay $49.00 a month. The problem is it wont ever happen. Instead of posting plays the guy would be busy spending his $$$$$$. There are people who can do it. They just dont waiste their time posting plays on a forum.

 

[Fezzik]

Interesting thread

Just because 95% of touts cannot pick over 53%, it does not mean to avoid all of them.

62%? hahahahahahaha

I'd personal pay thousands for a 10 year documented 54% guy. 60%? I don't even want to admit what I'd pay........no one would believe me.

And the comparison to a broker in the stock market only has some similarities. Buy and hold random investors win in the market. And the market is WAY more efficient and difficult to beat than sports. The difference in expected performance between a great and a bad buy and hold investor is not very big.

In sports, great bettors make big dollars. Random bettors get crushed in sports betting.

I really think this is something out of the movie white men can't jump. The average bettor would rather look good (and lose) doing his own thing than suck it up, find someone who wins at this, and subscribe. Finding out who the quacks are and who is "good" just isn't that hard, IMO. Ask me about anyone, I'll be more than happy to give my opinion, good or bad.

Not that I'd EVER go out of the way to bad mouth guys, but sheesh most guys GO OUT OF THEIR WAY, IMO to look and sound like crooks.

The dangerous guys are guys that try to make themselves sound like season professional gamblers, with testimonials, and the real pros just are LAUGHING THEIR A***** off at guys like this (not to mention names, but I'm drinking a Miller beer right now).

arty:

 

[whormoan]

PLEASE MENTION NAMES



Fezz, I know you are a math wizard from NW but I have been on a crusade against "Big Al" McMordie because I believe this guy is the BIGGEST SCAM IN THE Business. He has some $10,000 computer program that spits out ridiculous anitquated trends & stats with NO BEARING on the fundamental match-ups involved in the game. He wins his share (no more than most), but I give absolutely NO credence to his methods.