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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power Sweep

4* UNLV 37-27
3* LSU 38-0
3*Penn St. 41-13
2* Ohio St. 41-13
2* North Carolina (+) 20 (+) - 23
2* Auburn 23-6
Underdog Michigan +7 20-17


NFL

4* Tenn 27-9
3* Over Cleveland 31-30
2* Houston (+) 17 (+) -20
2* San Fran 27 (+)-28[/quote]


NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP NFL


(4★ = 2-0-1)


4★ Excellent
3★ Very Good
2★ Good

4* Tenn 27-9
3* Over Cleveland 31-30
2* Houston (+) 17 (+) -20
2* San Fran 27 (+)-28



4★ TENNESSEE over Minnesota - These teams are rather similar in that they feature smashmouth offenses
with excellent RB’s & powerful physical defenses. MIN is 0-5-1 ATS away vs AFC teams. TEN is 12-4 ATS at
home vs the NFC. LW the Vikings made a surprise move by switching to QB Frerotte to salvage the season
for a heavy preseason playoff favorite. Frerotte was decent & after a slow start fi nished with 204 yds (57%)
with a 1-1 ratio (7.3) but the defense was dominant as MIN outgained CAR 166-38 in the 2H. TEN’s defense
has been ferocious TY as they are only allowing 89 ypg rushing (3.7), have 11 sacks, a 1-7 ratio & a 5.4 ypa.
Collins is doing enough in the passing game to keep opposing defenses honest & the combo of Johnson &
White has rushed for 141 ypg (4.3). While both teams are mirror images we’ll side with the home team that
has allowed 14 or less pts in 11 of its L19 games. FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 Minnesota 9



3★ OVER: Cleveland 31 CINCINNATI 30 - Neither CIN or CLE has had a fair shot to start the year as both
teams have faced 3 straight top 10 defenses. CLE got its season on track LY with a 51-45 shootout win in
Wk 2 as a 7 pt HD only to lose ATS CIN 19-14 as a 2 pt AF in Wk 16. CLE has a much needed bye on deck
to heal up & is 5-1-1 ATS before it. The favorite is 10-6 ATS. While Palmer had a good game LW with 286
yds (69%) with a 1-0 ratio vs NYG they only have 3 offensive TD’s in 3 games. They revamped the defense
in the offseason but have been outrushed 174 (4.7)-97 (3.3) & the offense has only converted 15 of 49 3rd
Dns (35%). Anderson started out 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS LY & avg 262 ypg passing (58%) with a 23-12 ratio
(89.4 QBR) & 7.6 ypa. Anderson is 3-4 SU & ATS & has avg’d 161 ypg (51%) with a 7-10 ratio (57.6 QBR)
& a horrible 5.3 ypa since. It’s been 10 years since an 0-3 team made the playoffs & after LW’s close loss
it’s business as usual for CIN. CLE however was billed as a playoff team before the season & look for them
to go all out to snare a win before the bye as both QB’s vent their frustration in a higher scoring game.
FORECAST: OVER: Cleveland 31 CINCINNATI 30



OTHER SELECTIONS


2★ Houston 17 (+) JACKSONVILLE 20 - HOU is the 1st team since 1991 to start the season with 3 road
games. The Texans are 9-3 ATS vs the Jaguars. LY JAX beat HOU 37-17 as a 6.5 pt HF. HOU drove inside
the JAX 10 on their 1st 2 drives but settled for a FG & fumbled the ball away. JAX had TD drives of 76, 81, 78,
& 73 yds along with a 77 yd fumble return for a TD. HOU is 5-13 ATS on the road while JAX is 5-13 ATS as
a division favorite. QB Schaub was very rusty LW vs TEN with only 188 yds passing (45%) and an 0-3 ratio
(5.1 ypa). HOU did fi nally fi nd a RB as Slaton rushed for 116 yds (6.4). The Jags stuck to what they do best
with the run & defense LW & beat IND on a 51 yd FG with :08 left. JAX outrushed IND 236 (4.9) to 114 (6.0)
& had a huge 41:35 to 18:25 TOP edge. Garrard is back to his role as game manager & he only had 167 yds
(73%) with an int LW & JAX WR situation simply doesn’t give JAX the ability to engage in a shootout. We’ll
side with the Ugly Dog (18-9 67%) getting generous points vs a JAX team that has a tough SNF game vs PIT
on deck and will just be happy to get a SU win here. FORECAST: Houston 17 (+) JACKSONVILLE 20



2★ San Francisco 27 (+) NEW ORLEANS 28 - This is the 3rd year in a row & 12th in 10 years that these
former NFC West foes square off with NO going 9-2 ATS. Brees has avg’d 261 ypg (72%) with a 5-0 ratio in
his 2 meetings vs SF beating them by a combined 65-20. LY NO jumped out to a 31-3 lead before allowing
an 80 yd 15 play drive to SF in garbage time as the Saints had a 26-15 FD & 438-260 yd edge as a 2 pt
AF. NO is 5-14 ATS as a HF. SF is 2-6 ATS as an AD. NO returns home after 2 road games while the 49ers
are off a “Martz” revenge game vs DET. SF mauled DET with 14-4 FD & 224-67 yd edges with a 21-3 lead.
In his L2 games O’Sullivan has passed for 255 yds (66%) with a 3-0 ratio & 113.4 QBR. SF’s pass defense
was 21st LY but thanks to the better efforts of the offense to keep them fresh they are 8th at this point with
a 5.5 ypa. Brees once again had an outstanding game LW passing for 421 yds (81%) with a 1-0 ratio but
the run game only gained 88 yds (3.5) vs DEN #27 rush defense. After 3 high scoring & taxing games. NO
is in a fl at spot with a MNF HG on deck vs MIN. SF delivered as our 4★ Key Selection LW here & look for
SF to make this a surprisingly close game. FORECAST: San Francisco 27 (+) NEW ORLEANS 28




OTHER GAMES


Denver 38 KANSAS CITY 17 - KC is the 1st team since 1960 to start 3 different QB’s in its 1st 3 games & a
report surfaced of them trying to trade for Brady Quinn LW. DEN swept the series SU & ATS LY by a combined
68-18. DEN avg 390-207 yd edge & was +6 TO’s with a 9-2 sack edge as well. KC was without RB Johnson
for both games & Cutler avg’d 218 yds (66%) with a 5-1 ratio. DEN is 2-5 ATS on the road in Div play but KC
is 0-6 SU & ATS at home during their 12 game SU losing streak. After facing the #4 & #2 pass offenses the
L2W the Broncos get a favorable matchup vs a KC offense that only has passed for 169 ypg (4.8 ypa) in 3
games. KC went with Tyler Thigpen LW & he only had 128 yds passing (39%) with a 1-3 (3.6 ypa). KC didn’t
earn their initial FD until 9:03 left in the 2Q with their 1st 6 drives being 3 & out. KC was forced to start 2 rookie
CB’s LW with Surtain out gave up 192 yds passing (10.7 ypa) to a rookie QB in his 3rd start. They now face
Cutler who has surged on the season with 305 yds passing (68%) with an 8-2 ratio & 8.5 ypa. The talent gap
is simply too wide here & look for DEN to remain undefeated with a big road win here.



Arizona 24 NY JETS 23 - ARZ opted to stay & practice in DC after LW’s game vs WAS instead of enduring a
6000+ mile roundtrip on a plane. The Jets are off a long trip for a MNF game vs an angry SD team. NYJ are
2-6-1 ATS at home. LW was a huge game for ARZ as Whisenhunt pounded the fact that the team had to win
the NFC games on the road. ARZ was tied 17-17 after the 3Q but couldn’t hang on as they were outgained
126-23 & Warner was int’d to set up a 2 play, 15 yd TD drive for WAS. LW’s loss snapped a streak of 20+ ppg
in 10 straight games for ARZ. Arizona also lost DE Berry and fell to 2-15 SU and 6-11 ATS in EST. This is a
unique scheduling situation as the travel advantage goes to ARZ here & they catch a Jets squad travelling
back from SD on a late night fl ight. ARZ has a dynamic passing game & while James has become one of
the slower RB’s in the NFL they should be able to go to hang with Favre & the Jets here.




CAROLINA 24 Atlanta 9 - The visitor has covered the L5 in the series & CAR is 6-19 ATS as a division HF.
CAR is 1-8 ATS at home off a SU road loss. The teams split the series LY with Delhomme being KO’d for
the year with an elbow injury in the 1st game. ATL had a 17-10 lead in the 3Q when they self-destructed
due to penalties including an unsportsmanlike penalty that gave CAR a fresh set of downs on the ATL 14
enabling them to tie it up 2 plays later. CAR had another drive helped by a roughing the passer penalty to
put the ball on the ATL 10 with the go ahead TD on the next drive. ATL had a 442-313 yd edge but was hit
with 10 penalties. LW’s results set up a favorable setting as ATL crushed arguably the worst team in the NFL
LW 38-14 as a 6 pt HF as our 4★ NFL GOM. ATL only had a 77 yd edge in the game as they converted 3
int into 17 pts. Their 2 wins have been at home vs foes that are a combined 0-6 TY. They were held to just 9
pts & 105 yds rushing (3.8) in their only road game vs TB. CAR has played 3 playoff caliber defenses that
were backed up by strong rushing attacks & have beaten 2 of them. Delhomme was harassed by a MIN DL
that fi nally got its act together but ATL’s #10 pass defense is overrated. Expect CAR’s offense to improve
in WR Smith’s 2nd game (4 rec 17.5). While it’s tough to lay this many points with CAR, the Falcons have
exceeded expectations winning both games at home with a rookie QB & losing their road game. The home
team has covered by 14 ppg in Falcons games.



TAMPA BAY 19 Green Bay 10 - The Packers are off LW’s SNF game vs DAL & it’s unknown how Rodgers
fared vs one of the better defenses in the NFL. GB is 9-2 ATS on the road & in their 9 wins they have tallied
a 32-17 margin. TB is 7-2-1 ATS at home. GB faced Griese LY on SNF vs the Bears & he was effective as
he passed for 214 yds (60%) with a 2-1 ratio in the 27-20 win as a 3 pt AD. The Bucs are off a very physical
OT game in which Griese had 67 pass att’s (3 shy NFL record) & it’ll be interesting to see how his shoulder
holds up. While Griese had 407 yds (57%) he also had 3 int which setup 17 pts for CHI. TB’s pass defense
is a bit of a question as they struggled vs Brees in Wk 1 (343 yds 72% 3-1) & they allowed Orton to get on
track in the 2H as he hit 192 yds (68%) with 2 TD’s. Rodgers has been strong in the 1st 2 games with 253
ypg (70%) with a 4-0 ratio. He now has to travel to a hot & humid location vs a traditionally strong defense
at home. Even though he faced DAL on the road LY coming off the bench TB will have 3 full games of fi lm
on him to work with & there is a different mind-set as the practicing starter.



Buffalo 30 ST LOUIS 20 - STL goes from facing a depleted division foe that they are very familiar with to
facing a healthy BUF team that is 3-0 for the 1st time since 1992. The Rams have a bye on deck & they are not
expected to have 3/4 of the stadium capacity. BUF is 5-2 ATS on the road. STL is 0-5 as a HD & is 4-9 ATS vs
a foe above .500. BUF got a wake up call vs OAK LW & was forced to rally from 9 pts down halfway thru the
3Q. In the 4Q they surged to a 211-82 yd edge with a 17-7 score. LY after 3 games STL was outgained an avg
298-291, outrushed 152 (4.7) - 91 (3.5), Bulger was sacked 8 times & they were losing by an avg of 23-11.
TY’s Rams are being outgained 457-202, outrushed 184 (5.1) - 56 (3.1), Bulger has been sacked 11 times
& they are losing by a 39-9.7 margin. STL has 1 offensive TD in 36 drives & after LW’s performance at SEA
HC Linehan is dead man walking. BUF read too many of their press clippings LW & took OAK for granted but
STL had their best chance for a win LW vs a team starting their 7th & 9th WR’s & couldn’t come thru. While
this is a large amount of points to work with, a young BUF team showed their character coming back from a
9 pt defi cit with 6:00 to go & they are ready to handle the role as a large AF.




San Diego 31 OAKLAND 13 - The Chargers are off LW’s MNF game vs the Jets & Tomlinson was questionable
due to a toe injury. SD has dominated the series going 9-1 SU & ATS with an avg score of 28-15.
SD is 5-1 ATS as a division AF. OAK is 2-11 ATS as a division HD & are 3-7 ATS at home before a bye.
Russell got his 1st start at home vs SD LY in the season fi nale. While SD was outgained 316-253 they
sacked Russell 4 times & converted 4 TO’s into 14 pts. SD has a massive edge in the passing game with
Rivers (297 ypg 63% 6-1 9.9 ypa) vs Russell (130 ypg 52% 3-0 6.8 ypa). OAK blew a 9 pt lead halfway in
the 3Q & only ran 11 offensive plays for the rest of the game. LW OAK’s strength is in the run game but RB
Fargas (groin) is quest, RB McFadden (turf toe) is only at 70% & RB Bush (55 yds 3.9 LW) still struggles
in pass protection. Also up in the air is the Kiffi n/Davis feud which was brought back into the spotlight by
former OAK QB Gannon after LW’s game. Div dogs of 7 or more are 19-3-1 ATS before their bye but SD is
a better & more desperate team. Even if SD won on MNF they are at best tied with OAK in the AFC West,
have covered 5 straight here & have won by 18 ppg.



DALLAS 24 Washington 17 - The Cowboys are off B2B primetime games including a road game vs GB
LW on SNF. WAS has covered 3 straight in the series but DAL had already earned the #1 seed in the NFC
& rested everyone vs a WAS team that needed a win to make the playoffs in the season fi nale LY. In LY’s
1st meeting WAS had a 10-7 lead at the half but DAL pulled ahead 28-16 mid-4Q. WAS scored a 5 yd TD
pass by Campbell who ran a hurry up offense. WAS got to the DAL 19 on their next drive but Campbell
was int in the EZ & WAS had 28-19 FD & 423-362 yd edges. DAL is 1-5 ATS at home in division play. WAS
was in a horrible situation in their 1st road game vs the defending SB champions with a new HC & a QB in
his 3rd system with the team. In the L2 games Campbell has avg’d 257 ypg (70%) with a 3-0 ratio & 107.8
QBR as he has adjusted to Zorn’s SEA style offense. WAS still has the same basic defense as LY & should
do enough to slow down a weary DAL team to stay within the number


.
Philadelphia at CHICAGO - The Bears upset the Eagles 19-16 as 6 pt AD’s LY. PHI had a 9-3 lead at the
half & was up 16-12 late in the 4Q. After running out the clock PHI punted & pinned CHI at their own 3.
CHI drove down to the PHI 15 with :15 left & threw the game winning TD as time expired with a 386-334
yd edge. The Bears rested Hester (rib cartilage) & lost to TB in OT LW 27-24 as a 3 pt HF. Orton started
slow LW going 9 of 18 for 76 yds & 2 int and then he put the game on his shoulders & threw for 192 yds
(81%) with 2 TD’s to send the game to OT. PHI’s win LW was very costly as RB Westbrook has a strained
ligament in his ankle & McNabb was KO’d before the 1H with a chest injury only to return in the 2H. We’ll
hold off on making a call here as we need to see the injury status of Hester & Westbrook. This is the
Sunday Night Marquee PPH Play. The PPH has the winner up at 11:00 am ET on Sunday morning!
Call 1-900-438-9467 for just $15 or pay just $9 on your NC Debit Card. Sunday Night Plays over
the last 11 years are 103-65-3 61%!




Baltimore at PITTSBURGH - The Steelers take this rivalry much more seriously than they do the one
vs the Browns. BAL has covered 5 of 6 in the series but how will the 2-0. Rookie QB Flacco handle
making his 1st career road start on MNF in a hostile stadium? Roethlisberger was sacked 8 times LW
& was KO’d out of the game late & his status is unknown. This will come down to which defense is more
physical at the POA & if the OL’s can protect their QB’s. Call tonight for the Monday Night Magic
play. See below and don’t miss out on this Guaranteed Winner - you pay ONLY IF YOU WIN on
the Monday Night Magic Play!



OVER/UNDERS

3★'s are 6-3 THIS YEAR .

Here are this week's plays:


3★ Browns/Bengals Over 42'
3★ Falcons/Panthers Under 39'
3★ Broncos/Chiefs Over 46'
2★ Texans/Jaguars Under 40
2★ Vikings/Titans Under 37



SYSTEM SELECTION

Go against the home team that lost by 3 or less as a double digit road dog last week.
1989-2007: 23-5 82%

THIS WEEK'S PLAY:
AGAINST: CINCINNATI
PLAY ON: CLEVELAND



PRO ANGLES

There are 3 main methods ofhandicapping, Fundamental, Situation & Technical. Fundamental handicapping,
or theanalysis of personnel matchups & power ratings, is our main method of handicapping.
This accounts for roughly 50% of how we view a game. Situational handicapping (analysis
of letdown, look ahead, systems) takes up approximately 25% of our handicapping.
Technical handicapping (analysis of angles) takes up the rest. You should never base
your fi nal selection on 1 factor. To be a complete handicapper you must look at all 3
methods. For more complete analysis you should read Ten Keys To A Winning Season
Each week in Power Sweep we provide the angle section to add to
your handicapping arsenal. Many times we will agree with the angle
plays. Sometimes the Fundamental & Situational aspects of a game
will outweigh the angles & we have the other side written up in Power
Sweep. We want to make it clear that the side we write up in Power
Sweep is the side we are on. We are NOT Technical handicappers,
but we do use them in our handicapping analysis. Each week in Power
Sweep we provide pro angles for the current week's games. For the
angle plays the number in the ( ) indicates how many angles apply to
that team. The higher the number the stronger the angle play.


ATL is 3-9-1 as a division dog
ARZ is 5-2 away vs the AFC
BAL is 5-1 vs PIT
BUF is 5-1 vs the NFC
BUF is 5-2 on the road
CAR is 6-19 as a div HF
CHI is 5-0 as a dog
CLE is 5-1-1 before a bye
DAL is 1-5 at home vs a div foe
DAL is 3-7 as a favorite of 7.5 or more
DEN is 2-5 on the road in division play
GB is 9-2 on the road
HOU is 5-12 on the road
HOU is 1-5 in Div play
JAX is 5-13 as a division favorite
KC is 0-6 SU & ATS at home
KC is 0-5 SU & ATS in division play
MIN is 0-5-1 away vs the AFC
NYJ are 7-4 as a non-div HF
NO is 4-9 as a non-div HF
NO is 3-9 as a fav of 7 or more
OAK is 5-13 as a HD
OAK is 2-11 at home in division play
OAK is 3-7 at home before a bye
PHI is 10-2 on the road
STL is 0-5 as a HD
STL is 1-6 after facing SEA
STL is 5-13* overall
SD is 8-3-1 away in division play
SF is 2-6 as an AD
TB is 19-9-2 hosting a non-div foe
TEN is 12-4 at home vs the NFC
WAS is 5-9-1 on the road
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power Sweep

4* UNLV 37-27
3* LSU 38-0
3*Penn St. 41-13
2* Ohio St. 41-13
2* North Carolina (+) 20 (+) - 23
2* Auburn 23-6
Underdog Michigan +7 20-17


NFL

4* Tenn 27-9
3* Over Cleveland 31-30
2* Houston (+) 17 (+) -20
2* San Fran 27 (+)-28[/quote]


NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP - NCAA(4* 1-3) (DOW 2-1) (EB 2-0)**


Power Sweep

4* UNLV 37-27
3* LSU 38-0
3*Penn St. 41-13
2* Ohio St. 41-13
2* North Carolina (+) 20 (+) - 23
2* Auburn 23-6
Underdog Michigan +7 20-17



KEY SELECTIONS:

4★ Excellent
3★ Very Good
2★ Good



4★ UNLV over Nevada - LY QB Graziano threw a 43 yd TD pass to Sammons with :27 left for the
Wolf Pack’s 3rd consec SU and ATS win in the battle for the Fremont Cannon. UNLV got to the Nev
17 but fi red inc at the end. UNLV is off 2 exciting OT wins. After the Ariz St upset 2 weeks ago, UNLV
all’d Iowa St to get the game-tying TD with :03 left. In OT after ISU hit a 37 FG, QB Clayton went for
it on UNLV’s 1st play and found true Fr Payne (who had the OT-forcing rec vs ASU) in the back of the
EZ for the 3 pt win, delivering a 3★ Totals Play Winner on the Over. Clayton avg 194 ypg (63%) with
a 9-0 ratio!! Frank “the Tank” Summers has been on a roll the L/2 breaking the 100 yd barrier and
has 386 yds (4.5) with 3 TD. UN QB Kaepernick avg 179 ypg pass (61%) with a 2-2 ratio but has 214
rush yds (6.9) to lead the tm. The HT is 8-3 ATS and even though Nevada won its last trip here 31-3
& is fresh off a bye, they have lost their top 2 RB’s in the L/2 gms. As a result QB Kaepernick will
lose some of his scrambling ability as UNLV DC Therrell can have a completely different gameplan
here which focuses solely on the QB. FORECAST: UNLV 37 Nevada 27



3★ LSU over Mississippi St - MSU is 1-15 SU (2-14 ATS) vs LSU. The avg score of the last 7 has
been LSU 42-6 with 3 shutouts. LY Miss St trailed just 3-0 with 6:00 left in the 1H but had 7 TO’s and
LSU won 45-0. MSU pulled 2 outright upsets as a DD SEC AD LY (Aub & KY). Miles is just 8-13 as a
HF and MSU is 7-3-1 as an AD though they suffered a blowout loss at GT LW (38-7, +9). The Tigers
are off a come-from-behind win at Aub and have a bye on deck. However, LSU is 1-11 as a SEC HF
and 1-7 as a DD SEC fav. LSU has a huge edge on off (#20-112) despite 2 QB’s sharing snaps. LW’s
starter Hatch (73 ypg, 51%, 1-1 ratio) went down with a concussion and bkup Lee (127 ypg, 54%,
4-2 ratio) led LSU to 2 TD’s and the win. LSU fi nally has a feature back in Charles Scott (394, 9.0)
and WR LaFell (15, 16.5) has more than twice as many yds as the #2 man. MSU allowed GT’s triple
option off 438 rush yds (8.1) LW. MSU QB Carroll has avg 132 ypg (54%) with a 3-6 ratio and bkup
Lee hit 17-27 for 179 off the bench LW. RB Dixon has 270 (4.8) and top WR McCrae has 24 rec (10.4).
The biggest mismatch is LSU’s top-notch DL (allow 55 rush ypg, 2.0) vs MSU’s rebuilding OL and the
Tigers will dominate the line of scrimmage and the game. FORECAST: LSU 38 Mississippi St 0



3★ PENN ST over Illinois - IL is 1-13 SU in B10 openers with the win coming LY. LY PSU had a
427-336 yd edge on the road but lost 27-20 due to 4 TO’s and a KR TD. A 2-10 IL team outplayed
PSU in their last trip to Happy Valley with a 358-184 yd edge but lost SU. Both teams are now running
the spread with mobile QB’s and while IL has the more veteran QB, PSU has the edge on D (#6-61)
and ST’s (#2-32). PSU more than SD fav and Zook is 4-0 ATS as a conf AD with upsets of Mich St
(+26) and #1 Ohio St (+15) and near upsets of PSU and Wisky. IL’s Williams leads the league in total
off avg 241 ypg (60%) with a 7-5 ratio and 219 rush yds. Zook did call out Williams and WR Benn (15
rec, 10.0) for their inconsistent play after a 3 pt win over ULL. Illini D was shredded by MO’s spread
for 52 pts and 549 yds in the opener. PSU has been the B10’s most impressive team thus far after
whipping their foes by a combined 211-40. PSU has won Key Selections on these pages the L2W
including their 45-3 drubbing of Temple in which they outgained the Owls 546-138. Clark is the B10’s
pass eff leader (180 ypg, 62%, 7-1 ratio). Lions take a step up but show LY’s Rose Bowl participant
who’s at the head of the class in ‘08. FORECAST: PENN ST 41 Illinois 13





OTHER SELECTIONS

2★ OHIO ST over Minnesota - Minny pulled an upset here in ‘00 & OSU is 4-1 ATS since incl a 44-0
home win in ‘06. LY OSU had a 455-277 yd edge but was SOD at the Minny 5 late and did not cover
(30-7, -24). Tressel is 5-2 as a 20+ B10 fav, and since their stunning upset loss to NW in ‘04’s B10 opener
have won the L/3 by an avg of 39-6 covering by 17 ppg. Minny is 3-6 as an AD but beat BG 42-17 (+5)
in that role TY. After going 1-11 LY the Gophers are 4-0 after an impressive 37-3 win over FAU in which
they forced 5 more TO’s (+11 TO margin in ‘08). QB Weber is #2 in the conf in pass eff (242 ypg, 72%,
7-1 ratio) despite playing behind an OL that has lost 4 starters due to inj’s TY and losing the team’s
leading rusher for the yr. WR Decker is #3 in the NCAA with 32 rec (14.2). The Terrelle Pryor (PS#1)
era began for OSU as he threw for 4 TD’s and ran for 66 yds in a win over Troy. The Trojans had the
yd edge (315-309) and trailing just 14-10 in the 3Q were threatening to take the lead when they were
int’d at the OSU 6 and the Bucks tacked on two 4Q TD’s thanks to short punts. Beanie Wells (toe) may
not return until Wisky (10/4). The Bucks have the edges all around (#23-46 off, #3-71 D & #6-17 ST’s)
and need to reestablish their Big Ten dominance. FORECAST: OHIO ST 41 Minnesota 13


2★ North Carolina (+) over MIAMI, FL - Butch Davis returns to Miami and LY his Tar Heels were +7
at home, rolled to a 27-0 lead at half and won 33-27 with Miami getting a TD with 1:17 left. Shannon
was a player and an asst under Davis. NC has 18 ret sts while Miami has just 11 and is w/o RB James,
however, Cooper rushed for 128 yds (8.0) vs A&M LW. This is rFr QB Marve’s (PS#12) 1st home start
and on the ssn he is avg 141 ypg (65%) with a 2-1 ratio. Miami is just 11-24 as a HF. Two weeks ago
the Tar Heels won for the 1st time outside NC S/’02. NC has a slight offensive edge (#55-65) however
UM has a solid defensive edge (#16-53). LW NC lost QB Yates with a sprained ankle (x-rays negative,
check status) and were forced to play rFr Paulus, who threw 2 int. WR Tate is #1 in NCAA in all-purp
yds avg 265.7 ypg. NC is coming off a heart breaking 20-17 loss to VT in a game they led 17-3 late
3Q and is trying to prove they are a rising power in the league in Davis’ 2nd yr.
FORECAST: North Carolina 20 (+) MIAMI, FL 23


2★ AUBURN over Tennessee - Tenn has lost 3 in a row in this series with the last meeting being
in the ‘04 SEC Champ game (38-28). Eight of the L/11 in this series have been decided by 10 pts or
less incl 2 ties. The fav is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. The Vols are 12-0 SU and have covered the L4Y the wk
after facing rival Florida. UT committed 3 TO’s in the 1H and allowed a 78 yd PR TD which cost them
the gm LW. Following the loss at UCLA (also mistake riddled), UT rebounded vs UAB. It’ll be much
tougher to rebound vs Aub’s #8 D on the road. Aub is also off a disappointing loss to their rival and
has struggled with their new spread offense. QB Todd has avg 181 ypg (57%) with a 2-3 ratio and
RB Tate (323, 4.8) leads the tm in rushing. UT QB Crompton has had some growing pains incl an
int in the EZ LW and a fumble inside UF’s 5, but has avg 197 ypg (56%) with a 2-4 ratio. RB Foster
has 233 yds (6.0). Aub is 14-5 SU & 12-6-1 ATS the L/5Y (but 2-4 L/6) as a SEC HF, but are on a
3-11 ATS run as a HF overall. UT is 7-1-1 ATS off a SU loss and Aub is 11-5 off a SU loss. UT has a
signifi cant edge on off (#26-52) while Aub has a slight edge on defense (#8-17) and a huge edge on
ST’s (#5-85) plus the home edge. The Tigers’ D take advantage of a QB making his fi rst SEC road
start of the year. FORECAST: AUBURN 23 Tennessee 6



UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 179-
124. Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded
27 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is this
week's Underdog Play of the Week:

This is the 1st time ever that Wisky has been favored over the Wolves & the 1st time they’re ranked
while UM isn’t S/’59. The last time Wisky beat UM B2B was in ‘93-94. LY Mich had OSU on deck for
the B10 Title and rested QB Henne and RB Hart in a 37-21 gift in Madison. UW is 5-1 ATS in this
series but Mich has won the L/4 SU in Ann Arbor incl ‘98 when the Badgers came in ranked higher at
#8 but lost 27-10. UW is 4-2 ATS as an AF under Bielema incl their last outing, a 13-10 win at Fresno
(-2) in which the Badgers held on after jumping out to a 10-0 halftime lead as FSU missed 3 FG’s. RB
Hill has 379 yds (5.4). The Badgers struggled vs the spread LY and have allowed 15.5 ppg & 306 ypg
to the 2 they’ve faced (Akron & Marshall). UM is 1-2 after a defl ating loss to ND in which they turned
the ball over 6x, their most S/’92 but outgained the Irish 388-260. Threet locked up the QB job vs
the Irish hitting 16-23 for 175 yds. The Wolves allow 65 rush ypg (1.8). The Wolves have the D edge
(#15-21) but Wisky has huge off (#17-87) & ST’s (#18-60) edges. With OSU & PSU both at home on
deck, Wisky could look past these unlikely dogs. Forecast: MICHIGAN 20 Wisconsin 17




OTHER GAMES

Thursday, September 25th -

Smu at TULANE - LY RB Forté rushed for a CUSA record 342 yds
(9.0) in the 41-34 OT win. Ironically, the last time here SMU held Tulane to a school record -33 yards
rushing in ‘06. Tulane is coming off their 1st win of the season, outgaining ULM 454-182 in a 24-10
victory. Tulane is just 4-10 ATS off a SU win and does not have much experience as a HF (3-2 L/5Y).
June Jones said his offense would not hit stride until game 4 but they have yet to do so, struggling
the L2W vs quality opp’s (TT, TCU). The Mustang QB’s avg’d just 216 ypg with a 2-7 ratio in those 2
games. Tulane has our #79 pass eff def all’g just 150 pass ypg, but they have yet to face a pass-heavy
offense. SMU has a HUGE edge on ST’s (#37-118), but Tulane holds a large edge on D (#46-117).
Tulane is 7-2 SU and ATS in the series, but the visitor is 5-1 ATS.



Usc at OREGON ST - The Trojans are fresh off their solid outing against the Buckeyes and now
enter their toughest AG to date where their 27 gm conf winning streak was ended in ‘06. The Trojans
have lost just twice to OSU S/’68 (33 gms) and LY at home led 24-3 at half with a 175-49 yd edge.
The Beavers are off a convincing win against Hawaii and will need an all out performance to knock
off the mighty Trojans this week. OSU is 27-14 ATS at home vs conf opp’s while the visitor is 8-3 ATS
in this series making this P10 showdown one to watch this week.



Friday, September 26th -


Connecticut at LOUISVILLE - LY Connecticut defeated UL for the 1st time
in 4 meetings. UL was -3 on the road and led 17-7 mid-4Q but lost 21-17 as Conn benefi tted from a
momentum changing fair catch PR TD (see PH). Louisville was a 3★ LPS for us (-28) in ‘06 at home
and romped 48-17 (UC got late garbage TD). UL has just 9 ret sts while UC has 17. UL was 15-2 as
a HF before ‘07 and looks to return to form (1-1 TY) while UC is 4-11 as an AD (2-8 BE AD).



Saturday Games

- WAKE FOREST 37 Navy 20 - This will be Navy’s 1st visit to Winston-Salem S/’02.
Wake struggles in this role as they are 3-13 ATS as a HF (0-1 TY) while Navy is 11-4 as an AD (0-2
TY). LY Wake turned 3 Navy TO’s into 17 pts in their 44-24 win. The game was tied 17-17 when Navy
QB Kaheaku-Enhada went out with inj. Navy has Air Force on deck in Colo Springs. K Swank’s 69
FG’s are the most among current FBS players in 4 incl LW’s win over FSU. QB Skinner is avg 235
ypg (70%) with a 5-0 ratio. WR Boldin has 20 rec (8.0) and TE Wooster has 14 (10.1). Navy has the
offensive edge (#43-66) but WF has a substantial defensive (#11-109) and schedule (#14-78) edge.
QB Kaheaku-Enhada, who played in his 1st full game LW vs Rutgers, had 136 ttl yds offense. RB
White is #3 in the NCAA with 673 yds (solid 10.7). LW Navy snapped a 2 gm losing streak with their
23-21 win over Rutgers and had 361 ttl yds offense.


W Michigan 30 TEMPLE 17 - The Broncos are 6-0 SU vs Temple incl 1-0 in Philly but the HT has
covered 5 straight. LY WM held the Owls to a ssn low 146 yds & outgained them by 292 yds (19-6 FD).
Temple is 3-1 SU & ATS in MAC HG’s. WM’s Cubit is 2-4 as an AF but covered easily (51-28, -8) at
Idaho TY. Temple is 9-3 as a HD but in their MAC home opener were whipped by Buffalo 42-7 in ‘07.
The Owls are off their fi rst ATS loss TY (3-1 ATS) but more importantly they lost QB DiMichele in the
1Q, and it is exp to be out for a considerable amount of time. DiMichele was lost for the season LY vs
Miami and the Owls went just 1-3 without him. RFr Chester Stewart (PS#134QB) came in vs Penn St
and threw for 116 (53%) with a 0-3 ratio, and this will be his fi rst career start. DiMichele leads the Owls
with 112 yds (4.1) rush while their top RB, Liverpool is #2 with just 108 (3.3). WM QB Hiller is avg 276
(72%) with a 14-2 ratio. RB Brandon West leads WM with 432 (6.5) which is 100 more yds then Temple’s
whole team has on the year. Temple has played the tougher schedule (#37-111) and has the better D
(#73-86). WM has a big off edge (#53-111) which will only get bigger with DiMichele out.


WEST VIRGINIA 30 Marshall 16 - The Herd led 13-6 as the HT LY but #3 WV got an amazing front
door push (-25) scoring 3 late TD’s incl ones with 3:55 and 1:40 left to win 48-23. The Herd did play
well vs BCS Wisc for nearly 2Q’s in wk 2 and only trailed 17-14 at the half. Marshall had lobbied for
years for the “Coal Bowl” to be played and WV (big brother) did win at home 42-10 (-22) in ‘06. LW
WV went back to their bread & butter (belly-option) after att’g to turn QB White into a passer (5 TD
Wk 1). He had 149 rush yds (7.8) & RB Devine (PS#2) had 133 yds (5.1). The Mountaineers had 312
rush yards (43 pass) but lost 17-14 in OT to Colorado. WV has been outgained for 3 straight weeks.
Marshall snapped a 9 gm road losing in their 34-27 win over conf foe S Miss, another outright upset
for the Big Dog POW. WV has the edge on off (#30-78) and def (#48-88) as well as the Morgantown
fans. MU is just 5-13 as an AD and 5-14-1 on the road under Snyder but does have 17 ret sts to
WV’s 12. WV is 4-1 ATS as DD HF vs non-conf opp’s the L/2Y. WV is off to its worst start S/’03 but
look for them to rebound before entering their conf opener vs Rutgers.


Pittsburgh 37 SYRACUSE 10 - Pitt & Syracuse have met every year since 1955 and while Pitt is
5-1 SU they have won the L/2 by 10 and 3 pts while Syr was outscored by the rest of the BE by an
avg of 19.3 ppg. This is Pitt’s road opener and they did cover last time here 21-11 (-7) and have 15
ret starters. SU is on a 0-7 streak as a HD being outscored by 30 ppg. In those gms SU has given
up 270 rush ypg (excl PSU who didn’t need to) as teams ran it down their throat. The Orange who
had been outscored 127-51 their 1st 3 gms, only defeated IAA NEastern by only a 30-21 score LW.
They allowed 383 yds as NE converted 10-14 on 3rd down and never seemed out of game. SU has
a bye on deck so this should be their “A” game. They now take on LeSean McCoy (PS#8) who has
yet to rush for 100, but LY ran for 141 vs SU. LW Pitt took on a physical Iowa tm and escaped with
a 21-20 win. Pitt has the big edge on off (#63-101) and def (#28-115). Pitt has a big game vs USF
on deck but the favorite has covered 4 out of the last 5 in this series. LY we went against Syr in the
dome and won our 5★ GOY on USF (-16’).



Michigan St 38 INDIANA 17 - MSU is 9-2 for the Old Brass Spittoon in a series which avg 59 ppg
w/an avg margin of victory of 22 ppg. Indy is just 1-15 SU in B10 openers. LY MSU dominated 52-27
at home with a 558-193 yd edge. MSU had won 4 straight trips to Bloomington by an avg of 24 ppg
but lost their last trip here under JLS. Indy does have the edge on ST’s (#63-87) and is 4-2 as a
HD with 3 outright upsets. The Spartans are 3-7 as an AF. IU became the 1st BCS conf team ever
(0-43) to lose to Ball St in which QB Lewis struggled hitting just 11 of 25 for 159 yds with 2 int. The
D KO’d the nation’s leading rec’v (BSU’s Love) in the 1H but couldn’t stop RB M Lewis (166 yds)
as it struggled with inj’s to 3 starting DB’s. They now face the NCAA’s 2nd leading rusher in Ringer
(699, 4.9) whose 201 yds helped power the Spartans to a 23-7 win over ND. In that game the Irish
missed 2 FG’s, threw an int in the EZ while another int set up a 22 yd Spartan TD drive. MSU has
big edges (#40-70 off & #24-74 D) and has played a much tougher sked (#31-114). The Spartans
continue to play the bully.



IOWA 24 Northwestern 10 - NW is actually 6-5 SU in this series and there have been 3 straight
outright upset wins. Twice a team was ahead in the 4Q and lost incl LY (see PH). The last time here
Iowa was (-20) but was outgained 443-264 and beaten 21-7 with their starting QB’s left hand in a
cast. Iowa is 3-7 as a HF but Fitzgerald is 3-6 as an AD. Iowa is off a 21-20 loss at Pitt in which the D
allowed their 1st TD’s of the season with 2 on drives in which Pitt conv’d 4th downs. The QB situation
is again muddled as Christensen struggled (12-24 for 124 yds) and fmbl’d away the ball at the Hawks
28 on their last drive. Stanzi (7-10 for 79 yds) spent the 2H on the bench and Ferentz said he doesn’t
know who will start vs the Cats. Greene (506, 6.5) has had 100 yds in each game TY. Iowa is #48
in pass eff D and hasn’t faced a pass attack of this caliber. NW is 4-0 for the 1st time S/’62 after a
16-8 win over Ohio in which RB Sutton (leg) was inj’d in the 2Q & DNR (check status). QB Bachér
has struggled avg 190 ypg (59%) with a 3-5 ratio including 4 int LW. The Cats’ D is 4th in the NCAA
with 15 sks (18 in ‘07) and allows 97 rush ypg (2.9) incl a school rec’d 4 yds to Ohio LW. Iowa gets
back to basics in a lower scoring game



DUKE 31 Virginia 13 - Virginia has outscored Duke by 20 ppg going 17-2 SU including 8 straight wins.
We used UVA as our fi rst ever Sept 5★ back in 1984 and they waxed Duke 38-10 (-4). Duke is 9-5
ATS in the series and only trailed Virginia 17-13 to start the 4Q LY covering on the road 24-13. Both
teams are off a bye. This is the 4th straight home gm for Duke. Duke is the much more veteran team
and gets this one at home and the Cavs are 11-22 ATS on the road, however Duke is 1-6 ATS as a
HF beating Navy as a 4★ LPS two weeks ago. UVA has been outscored by a combined 97-17 by the
two FBS teams it has faced. Duke has won 2 of 3 gms to start the season for the 1st time S/’03. QB
Lewis leads the ACC in total offense, avg 274 ypg (#2 passing avg 238 ypg). WR Riley has 19 rec
(12.2). UVA QB Lalich has been dismissed from the team for violating probation. QB Verica in his 1st
start passed for 158 yds with a 0-1 ratio. UVA’s off is only avg 234 ypg while their D is allowing 419.
Duke is avg 411 yds off and allowing 308 ypg. Cutcliffe appears to have them on the right track (2-1
SU, 2-0 ATS), while UVA is steadily backsliding. In Duke’s only loss, they outgained N’Western 472-328
and outFD’d them 29-14. A Duke win will end a 25 game ACC losing streak.



FLORIDA 34 Mississippi 17 - The Rebels are 3-3 SU (5-1 ATS) vs Florida S/’89 including winning 2
of the L/3 SU (L/3 decided by 4 ppg)! LY Tebow set a school QB record with 166 yds rushing as UF
(-23) barely got past UM 30-24 (see PH). Ole Miss (+12’) defeated #24 ranked UF 20-17 in their last
trip to the Swamp in ‘03, but has lost 14 straight SEC road games (avg loss by 16 ppg). UF is 0-6 ATS
the week after rival Tennessee. UF capitalized on UT errors LW as they led 17-0 after 1Q with 2 scoring
drives of 44 and 0 yds and then added a 78 yd PR TD. UF was outgained 258-243 and Tebow had a
career low passing performance (only avg 163 ypg, 59%, 5-0 ratio, 118 rush, 3.5). Meyer is 22-8-1 as
a HF, but UF is 1-9-1 as a DD conf fav and 0-7 as 20+ fav. Nutt is 8-2 as an AD with outright upsets of
#2 Auburn and #1 LSU (4-1 as AD vs Top 10 tms). Ole Miss has lost 9 consec SEC gms and LW lost
to Vandy despite a 385-202 yd edge as QB Snead (211 ypg, 54%, 6-7 ratio) threw 4 int incl 1 ret’d 79
yds for a TD as UM had a 6-2 TO defi cit. UF has our #1 ST’s unit, #2 def, #6 off and certainly has a
large speed edge over Ole Miss, but may not be as motivated as they were LW.



Northern Illinois 34 E MICHIGAN 20 - NI is 8-2 SU vs EM, all 8 wins have been by a TD+ (avg win
by 18 ppg). The Huskies have outrushed EM the L10Y on avg 230 ypg (5.3) to 95 ypg (2.8). However,
with new HC Kill and a new off NI is avg 166 ypg rush while EM is avg 211. EM RB Blevins has 312
yds (5.7) while NI top RB Brown has just 100 yds (4.3). LY EM got a rare win as NI was banged up
and blew a 13-0 lead. After a holding call wiped out a FD at the 21, NI missed a 50 yd FG on the fi nal
play and lost 21-19 (-13). NI has won their L/3 here by 24 ppg and only had a bye and IAA foe the
L2W. Both tms are 0-1 in MAC play with their only win of the season over IAA Ind St. EM won 52-0
with a 637-132 edge while NI won 48-3 with a 363-154 yd edge as both had 28 pt lead at the half.
Both were without their opening game starters at QB LW (check status). NI has the edge on both off
(#83-93) and def (#78-105). NI is 2-0 ATS as they lost both lined gms by a comb 7 pts. EM is 0-3 ATS
losing their 3 lined games by an avg of 28 ppg.



C MICHIGAN 41 Buffalo 27 - In their last game in ‘06, CMU had a 313-122 yd edge & led 48-7 at the
half. UB is 2-15 SU (6-11 ATS) vs MAC West teams and CM has won 11 in a row SU (9-2 ATS) vs the
East. The fi rst 4 meetings were in Buffalo (CM 3-1 SU & ATS). Buf is 8-3 as a MAC AD but CM is 6-2
as a MAC HF. Both covered LW as DD dogs to BCS tms. Buffalo (+33) only trailed #5 Mizzou 20-14
at the half before being outscored 22-7 in the 2H, as MU QB Daniel played all game, working on his
Heisman stats and the Bulls were outgained 590-286. CM (+10) had a a 25-24 lead over Purdue with
1:18 left but all’d a late TD and lost despite a 440-343 yd edge. Both teams won their conf opener.
Buffalo has the D edge (#90-110) but CM has the off edge (#24-57). CM QB Dan LeFevour is avg 280
ypg (61%) with a 7-3 ratio and is the #1 rusher with 218 yds (3.9). UB QB Drew Willy is avg 257 ypg
(62%) with a 10-3 ratio. The Bulls were without their top rusher RB James Starks (296, 5.0) who was
inj’d vs Temple (check status). His two backups have combined for 287 yds (4.2) on the year.



Cincinnati 37 AKRON 23 - The home team is 3-1 in this series with 3 of 4 decided by 6 pts or less.In
their last gm (‘06), UA jumped out to a 14-0 lead after 1Q, but was outscored 20-0 (Akron 34 yds last
3Q) covering (+6’). Cincy is 3-6 as an AF and just faced rival Miami with a Friday night game on deck.
The Zips have only been a HD 5 times in 4 years and have FOUR OUTRIGHT upsets but did not cover
vs Ball St this year. UC QB Tony Pike threw for 241 yds (83%) with a 2-0 ratio in his fi rst start. While
this will be his fi rst road start, the Rubber Bowl is not known as a very imposing stadium. Cincy only
led 24-20 in the 3Q vs Miami but a 72 yd IR TD broke the game open as they scored 21 unanswered
pts. They had a 393-301 yd edge but were outFD’d 22-20. Akron had a 357-223 yd edge and was +4
TO but only won 22-3 over Army as they had trouble in the red zone with only 2 TD while settling for
4 FG attempts (1 miss). UA QB Chris Jacquemain is avg 240 (59%) with a 7-5 ratio. Cincy has the off
(#49-82) and def (#65-103) edges. The Zips are all’g 4.9 ypc while UC is avg 4.3 ypc.



EAST CAROLINA 35 Houston 27 - This is UH’s 1st trip here since ‘03. LY UH missed 2 FG’s in the
last 2:00 and was upset at home 37-35 (-13’), which cost them the CUSA West title. UH is coming
off 3 SU & ATS losses and is essentially playing their 4th road game in a row (game vs AF moved to
Dallas due to Ike). LW Houston trailed Colo St 21-3 in 1H, but actually had a chance for the win. The
Cougars reached the Rams’ 15 yd line with :08 to go, but instead of kicking the tying FG, HC Sumlin
went for the win. QB Keenum’s pass was int in EZ and the Cougars fell 28-25, despite outgaining CSU
473-422. EC is coming off their 1st loss, 30-24 to NCSt in OT. The EC def allowed 384 ttl yds to the
Wolfpack and has our #115 pass eff def. Holtz is 17-8 ATS in CUSA play, but the visitor is 6-1 ATS (6-2
SU) in the series. Both teams have byes on deck and although the UH coaching staff is new, expect
the players to remember LY’s disappointing loss and come ready to play.



NOTRE DAME 30 Purdue 20 - PU has won in South Bend just once S/‘76 (1-14 since). LY ND (+21’)
trailed 23-0 at the half as PU had 3 short FG’s. With Clausen benched for Sharpley in the 3Q ND got
in the backdoor as the Irish passed for a season high 377 yds. Weis is 6-13 as a HF and Tiller is 5-2
as an AD. The Irish are off a 23-7 loss to MSU in which they missed 2 FG’s, were int’d in the EZ and
had another int set up a 22 yd TD drive. Clausen (209 ypg, 57% 6-6 ratio) was sk’d for the 1st time
in ‘08 (3) by the Spartans and ND ran for just 16 yds (#111 NCAA avg 78 ypg). The Irish are #35 in
pass eff D. Despite being outgained 440-344, Tiller became PU’s all-time winningest coach thanks to
a 46 yd TD run by Sheets (352, 5.7 in ‘08) with 1:00 left. Painter (251 ypg, 59%, 3-3 ratio) is just #73
in the NCAA in pass eff (2 spots behind Clausen). The Boilers are #16 in pass eff D. The Boilers have
big ST’s edge (#33-112) but the Irish have edges on both sides (#62-67 off & #42-70 D) and continue
their series dominance in front of TD Jesus.



NEBRASKA 27 Virginia Tech 17 - Their only meeting was the ‘96 Orange Bowl (Neb 41-21). NU is
9-2 SU at home vs the ACC. This is Neb’s 4th straight HG and the Huskers are 26-3 SU at home
in night games and have scored at least 35 pts in each of their L/6 gms. LY Pelini’s D (at LSU) held
VT to just 7 pts & 149 ttl yds. VT is off a pair of ACC games and making a rare trip to the Midwest
while the Huskers are fresh off a bye and hungry after 2007’s losing year, however, they have huge
conf games on deck vs ranked MO & TT. QB Ganz is avg 240 ypg (64%) with a 5-3 ratio. Neb has a
solid off edge (#14-86) while VT has a slight def edge (#30-43). VT is 5-2 as an AD (or 11-2 as AF).
QB Taylor, who took over for Glennon after Wk 1, is avg 140 ypg offense. Although VT is 3-1 on the
season, they are being outgained by an avg 328-272 and outFD’d 65-59. LW’s win vs NC was the 2nd
biggest comeback under Beamer.



WASHINGTON 30 Stanford 20 - Both teams are in poor technical spots this week as Stanford enters
their 3rd AG in 4 wks while UW is off 3 losses to Top 25 teams. Willingham was the HC at Stanford from
‘95-’01 and has now beaten his former program in 4 of 5 matchups SU & ATS holding the Cardinal
to a miniscule 11 ppg. SU, who erased a HT defi cit vs SJSt LW at the Farm, pulled out their only win
of the ‘06 season holding UW to just 161 ttl yds in Seattle. UW is off a bye but has been ugly as a HF
going 0-5 ATS the L/2Y including surrendering 4 outright upsets! The Cardinal however have been just
as bad losing their last 4 ATS as AD’s (all double digit spreads) making us lean towards the Huskies
getting their 1st win of the ‘08 season here.



CALIFORNIA 48 Colorado St 10 - The Bears, who dropped an expected win 2 wks ago vs MD, enter
this gm not only trying to redeem themselves but also the P10 who has lost all 5 gms TY vs the MWC
(1-4 ATS). One thing they will need to address is their pass blocking after allowing 5 sks to the Terps
(25 sks in previous 28 gms). LY CSU scored 2 TD’s in :53 to pull within 34-28 with 2:54 left vs #10 Cal,
covering as a HD and they upset Cal in 2003 23-21 (+2’) here in Berkeley. The Rams held off a late
comeback attempt by Houston to pull out the home upset (+6). While Cal is 0-6 ATS as a 20+ pt fav
and has Ariz St on deck, they are fresh off a bye and have big edges in off (#12-103), def (#19-98) and
coaching making CSU’s 1st true AG with a young QB one the Rams may want to soon forget.



GEORGIA 27 Alabama 17 - Alabama has lost the last 3 in this series (Richt 3-0 in 7 yrs) incl last year’s
26-23 loss in OT. The visitor is 4-1 ATS since ‘94. UGA is 18-8-1 ATS as a single digit HF. UGA is off
a long trip to ASU and they didn’t return home until early Sunday morning which could eat up some
of the prep time for this gm. Bama is off a 49-14 blowout win over Ark in which they rushed for 328
yds (9.4) incl 162 by leading rusher Coffee (242, 6.5) delivering us a 4★ LPS Winner. QB JP Wilson
has only avg 156 ypg (63%) with a 4-1 ratio. UGA is off a decisive win over ASU and their stifl ing #4
defense held ASU to 212 total yds incl just 4 rush yds (60 rush ypg, 2.5 on yr). Bama’s #14 D has held
opps to 43 rush ypg (1.9), but hasn’t faced anywhere near the caliber of UGA RB Moreno (306, 6.7).
UGA QB Stafford has avg 211 ypg (62%) with a 4-0 ratio. Bama has been better than expected, but
we think UGA has the talent edge and a big home edge in this battle of Top 10 teams.



CLEMSON 27 Maryland 20 - MD posted a thrilling 13-12 last-second win in their last visit to Death
Valley delivering another Big Dog POW outright upset (+19’). MD has been outscored 34-10 in the 4Q
the L/5 vs CU. LY RB Davis guaranteed a win over a banged up MD team and CU dominated leading
30-10 before allowing a late 92 yd drive for a garbage TD. Davis and Spiller each topped 100 yards
rushing. CU only had a IAA foe LW and has a bye on deck but is just 3-10 as an ACC HF. LW CU had
its 1st shutout in 2 yrs with their 54-0 win over SC State. QB Harper is avg 198 ypg (66%) with a 3-4
ratio. RB Davis has 249 rush yds (5.7) and Spiller 206 (6.4). The Tigers do have the off & def edges
(off #28-44, def #23-68). The Terps have covered 4 straight in Death Valley. RB Scott (#5 NCAA avg
135.7 ypg), who missed LW w/a shoulder inj, should be ok here and has 407 rush yds (7.3). WR
Heyward-Bey, one of the most underrated WR’s, has 12 (20.8!). QB Turner is avg 147 ypg (60%) with
a 5-5 ratio. Both teams are tied at #2 in the Atlantic Div behind WF.


Fresno St 23 UCLA 20 - FSU is 18-29 SU vs the P10 but only 1-6 vs UCLA. They’ve met 4x S/’95 &
FSU is 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS. In their most recent meeting FSU recorded their lone win with a 17-9 (+3)
victory in the ‘03 Silicon Valley Classic. FSU HC Hill is 14-6 SU vs in-state foes & almost upset #1
USC in ‘05 (42-50, +23). Fresno has the edge on off (#37-107) & ST (#20-41) but UCLA gets the nod
on D (#50-66). UCLA has only had 4 gms vs current WAC foes in the L/20Y (FSU 3x, BSU in ‘99). The
Bruins are a young tm with just 9 starters back & are in a P10 sandwich. UCLA opened the Neuheisel
era with a thrilling comeback OT win over Tenn (27-24, +7’). But that high was quickly defl ated after
a 59-0 loss at BYU (1st time UCLA was shutout S/’01 at USC, 27-0) followed by a home loss to Ariz
LW. UCLA must improve its run gm as the Bruins are avg just 2.0 ypc rushing (#117 in the NCAA).
UCLA has also not scored an off TD in L/2 gms. FSU’s mantra is “Anybody, Anytime, Anywhere” &
that certainly applies here. The Bulldogs are coming of a grueling 55-54 2OT win over Toledo LW.
S/‘00, FSU has played 27 BCS tms going 12-15 SU (19-8 ATS) & 11 of those losses were by 9 pts or
less - incl 6 gms by 3 pts or less.



Bowling Green 20 WYOMING 13 - 1st meeting. BG HC Brandon was the WR cch at WY from ‘87-’90
and his tm is off a bye (2-7 ATS) while WY is in a BYU/NM sandwich but is 12-7 ATS vs non-conf. Three
weeks ago a weaker Ohio tm (that deserved the win) traveled to the altitude and WY was lucky to escape
with a 1 pt come-from-behind win while being outgained 287-271. WY was rolled 44-0 LW by BYU, with
the Cougs delivering as our Early Bird POW. WY is 5-1 SU but just 1-5 ATS vs MAC foes. QB Crum is avg
just 98 ypg (55%) with a 2-4 ratio while BG QB Sheehan avg 208 ypg (63%) with a 2-3 ratio. BG took the
bye wk to heal up some nagging inj’s and after the loss to Boise, QB Sheehan said “we should be putting
up at least 28 ppg... I don’t think we’ve reached our potential yet.” This could be the week BG’s goals are
fi nally realized as they have a HUGE off (#75-118) edge, while the D’s are close (WY #64-67).



Oregon 45 WASHINGTON ST 17 - QB injuries are the main storyline of this gm as the Ducks and
Cougs could both be down to at least their 3rd string signal-callers. The Ducks travel to Pullman after
falling short in a late 4Q charge vs Boise and now have a date with USC on deck. With starters Costa
& Roper already out, UO lost 3rd stringer Masoli to a concussion (check status) and may have to use
1 or both true frosh QB’s (Harper & Thomas) TW. LY, Oregon marched out to a 40-0 HT lead (390 total
yds) in Eugene and is 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) in Pullman. WSU won as expected vs IAA Port St LW getting
their 1st victory but has struggled severely so far TY. They also have QB issues of their own as their
#1 (Lopina) & #2 (Rogers) both went down. RFr Lobbestael came in for a solid 2H & may get the nod
here trying to improve an off that has avg just 234 yds vs IA opp’s. The Cougs are 8-4 ATS as a HD
but were pounded on the ground vs Baylor (4★ Winner) & Cal (3★ Winner) allowing a combined 817
rush yds in those 2 gms. The Ducks meanwhile have avg 299 ypg on the ground TY & should make
this once hostile environment of Martin Stadium a nice walk in the park.



OKLAHOMA 34 Tcu 17 - TCU has pulled the outright upset in each of the L/2 visits to Norman (20-7
in ‘96 +9’, 17-10 in ‘05 +25) and is 4-1 SU and ATS vs the B12 over 3Y. OU is 10-3-1 as a HF, off a bye
and will give this full focus. QB Bradford is avg 294 ypg (79%) with a 12-2 ratio. OU has been dominant,
outgaining foes by 324 ypg (41 ppg) & is on an 8-0 SU & 7-0 ATS non-conf run outscoring tms on avg
59-11 (50+ every gm). TCU has been as equally impressive after a waxing of SMU (288 yd edge).
They are outscoring foes on avg 43-8, outgaining them 423-183 & are on an 8-1 SU & ATS streak. QB
Dalton is avg 152 ypg (64%) with a 0-1 ratio but is the tm’s #2 rusher. TCU will not be intimidated here
(LY led Texas 10-0 at HT) but is playing their 2nd straight AG and does have the MWC slate ahead. OU
will see its best opp to date, but is an amazing 56-2 SU (10-2 ATS streak) under Stoops at Memorial
Stadium and will learn from the past not to take this Horned Frogs tm for granted



SOUTH CAROLINA 38 Uab 3 - Second meeting. SC won the ‘03 gm 42-10. UAB HC Callaway was the former
OC at UGA (‘01-‘06) when UGA went 5-1 over SC. UAB plays the BCS schools tough losing the L/8 but 4 of those
were by 10 points or less. UAB is 3-18 SU but 13-8 ATS in Sept road games. SC struggled in a 23-13 win over IAA
Wofford LW and has 3 SEC games on deck. In ‘06, they barely got past Wofford but then rolled over Fla Atl 45-6 the
next week. SC is 5-3 as a DD HF under Spurrier. The Gamecocks have our #10 D and UGA HC Richt said “I don’t
think we’ll face a bigger or stronger front 7 the rest of the year.” SC’s top WR McKinley has missed the L/2 (check
status). UAB is coming off its 1st win of the year, 45-10 over IAA Ala St and has a CUSA Thurs Nite game on deck.
UAB lost to Tenn 35-3 two weeks ago as a struggling Vols offense outgained the Blazers 548-275. After another
disappointing performance vs Wofford, expect Spurrier to keep the gas pedal down vs the Blazers’ #116 D.



TEXAS A&M 37 Army 6 - Army had a 3rd & goal w/:09 left in their ‘06 4 pt loss vs A&M in San Antonio.
Army has dropped 11 straight RG’s with their last win coming in TX vs Baylor in OT but they will have a decent
following. The Black Knights are 4-10-1 ATS in road openers and this year bring in a new off for the 1st time in
an opposing stadium. Army is only avg 257 ypg, but the defense has been solid (allowing 310 ypg). LW A&M
was held in check for most of the gm vs Miami (trailed 41-10 in 3Q). QB Johnson made his 1st Aggie start with
275 yds (59%) and a 3-1 ratio. A&M has dropped both gms TY at Kyle Field but is 14-2-1 ATS off a SU loss and
Sherman needs a win here for the fans and players to regain confi dence before B12 play begins next wk. The
Aggies should continue Army’s losing ways as they have dropped 9 straight & are on a 1-7-1 ATS streak.



BALL ST 33 Kent St 27 - The Golden Flashes are 3-9 in Muncie & are just 1-13 SU vs BSU S/‘86. They last
met here in ‘06 and Ball St led 27-0 after 3Q in a 30-6 (-3) win. Hoke is 7-3 as a HF. The Cardinals are off
their 1st win over a B10 team (1-19), as they downed Indy 42-20. Ball St led 28-20 at the half and shutout
the Hoosiers in the 2H scoring 14 unanswered points. They fi nished with a 24-20 FD and 463-415 yd edge.
Their top WR Love, who came into the game leading the NCAA (144.3 ypg receiving), will be an emotional
loss after he was inj and had spinal surgery after LW’s game. Ball St QB Davis is avg 289 ypg (73%) with
a 10-3 ratio. RB Lewis had his 3rd straight 100+ yd game and has 529 yds (5.9). The Flashes have lost 10
straight lined games (0-10 ATS). The Flashes led ULL 14-10 in the 2Q but were outscored 31-13 the rest
of the way. They were only outFD’d 22-19 but were outgained 667-396 as they allowed 3 TD’s of 47 yds or
more. KSU QB Edelman is avg 122 ypg (53%) with a 4-5 ratio and leads the team in rushing with 304 yds
(5.2). RB Jarvis is #2 with 207 yds (5.2) and sat out LW with a sprained ankle. Ball St is allowing 4.8 ypc
and Kent should be able to run the ball which shrinks the clock.



Usf 30 NC STATE 13 - Bulls HC Leavitt looks to avenge his 1st ever bowl, a loss to NCSt 14-0 in the ‘05 Car
Care Bowl. USF is 8-4 ATS vs non-conf but has a key BE Thurs night game on deck. State coach O’Brien
has his former team BC next. This is USF’s 3rd RG in 4 weeks but they have 17 ret starters to NCSt’s 10.The
Bulls are off a “C” gm vs a FIU squad sporting a new stadium while playing their “A” gm. USF led 17-0 but
escaped with a 17-9 win in a sloppy gm (18 ttl pen’s) all’g FIU 9 pts in the fi nal 2:20. NCSt pulled off the
upset of #15 EC in OT LW. The Pack had gone 227 plays between scores vs IA opp’s until their 1Q TD &
has been outscored by an avg of 10 ppg in HG’s under O’Brien. NCSt has not been a DD HD since ‘00 in
a 58-14 (+18) loss to #6 Fla St. USF has the off edge (#21-85) and def (#26-75) edges. Leavitt will look to
catch NCSt off a hangover after their emotional win. We’re well aware of injuries USF sustained LW which
only gives us extra line value here. (See ncsports.com for updated injury report)


FLORIDA ST 26 Colorado 13 - These two have met twice and both times we have used a LPS on
FSU and won with a 47-7 win at home (-20) in ‘03 and a 16-6 win (-4’) LY (up 16-0 and CU got most
of their yds in garbage time). While this is in Jacksonville, FSU will have a full crowd and humidity
edge and have their team at full strength for the 1st time after season opening suspensions. This is
CU’s fi rst real road game and they are off a huge Thurs night win vs #21 WV. The Buffs do have #7
Texas on deck (B12 opener) and are 3-8 ATS on the road. QB Hawkins is avg 218 ypg (70%) with a
6-3 ratio. FSU fi nally played a IA foe LW and sputtered vs WF with 7 TO’s and only 12 FD & 220 ttl yds.
Seminole QB’s are only avg 229 ypg (53%) with a 6-3 ratio. FSU is just 5-12 as a HF and does have
in-state Miami on deck, but Bowden will have his tm ready & will stress ball security during the wk.



UTEP 27 Ucf 23 - LY UTEP was one of 2 opp (7 total) to cover in Bright House and they only trailed
29-20 late (+21). This is UCF’s 1st trip to El Paso in CUSA play and they are 1-8 (1-6 under O’Leary)
as an AF. UCF is coming off a loss at BC in which they were outgained 411-252. QB Greco threw 3
int and now has a 2-3 ratio and has completed just 53% of his passes and was replaced at times by
true frosh Calabrese. UCF is just 3-10 SU & ATS in the 2nd of B2B road gms and is 9-16 ATS on the
road under O’Leary. UTEP is still looking for their 1st win after losing “The Battle of I-10” to NMSt LW.
UTEP was without leading rusher Jackson (ankle, check status), but rushed for 277 yds after starting
QB Vittatoe (91% of tm’s pass att’s L/2Y) was lost to an ankle inj after the 3rd series (check status)
and they went to the Zone Read Option directed by 3rd stringer Thomas. UTEP is 3-1 as a conf HD
under Price. UCF has struggled on the road and look for that trend to continue.



NEW MEXICO ST 27 New Mexico 24 - All eyes in the “Land of Enchantment” will be focused on
this one which is for state bragging rights & the Aggies would love nothing more than to end the
stranglehold the Lobos have had on them. In the “Battle of 1-25” for the Maloof Trophy, the Lobos
have won 5 in a row SU (2-4 ATS) & have claimed 32 of the L/39 meetings. NM is on a 3-8 ATS (6-5
SU) streak & followed up its win over Ariz two weeks ago by getting blown away by Tulsa LW in a
game the Lobos trailed by as many as 49 pts while surrendering 602 ttl yds. The dog in this series is
7-3 ATS (4-6 SU). NMSU has the edge on off (#94-106) but NM gets the nod on def (#63-118) & ST
(#97-116). LY NMSU had a 30-20 FD edge & QB Holbrook hit 47-63 (the most comp’s ever all’d by
NM) for 473 yds & 4 TD’s as NMSU almost got the backdoor cover as the Aggies were SOD at the
NM 2. Holbrook shook off some rust from the opener by passing for 329 yds & 5 TD’s LW. The 3-3-5
defense will be on display here by both tms. Aggies DC Dunn spent 7 yrs at NM in the ‘80’s & taught
current Lobos HC Long the scheme when Dunn was the DC & Long was the DB cch in ‘80 for NM.
The Lobos host Wyoming in their HC next week while the Aggies have a bye on deck.



SAN DIEGO ST 34 Idaho 20 - The Vandals have lost 10 straight non-conf AG’s by an avg of 29 ppg.
SDSt has a comb 16-3 SU rec’d vs the newest members of the WAC (Idaho, NMSt, Utah St) but is
just 3-9 ATS at home vs non-conf but surprisingly 8-4 as a HF overall. SDSt was clearly in a letdown
vs SJSt 2 wks ago, and was trying to change up the off (avg’d 52 pass att 1st 2, just 29 pass att vs
SJSt). During the bye week SDSt decided to go back to the off of the fi rst 2 wks and now takes on
Idaho’s #59 pass D all’g 257 ypg (64%) with a 14-5 ratio (and starting S Keo was inj’d LW, check
status). LW Idaho was only down 21-17 at the end of the 3Q vs Utah St before all’g 21 unanswered
points while being outgained 580-271 on the night. SDSt is 8-3 ATS off a bye and catches Idaho in
their 3rd road game in 5 weeks and in a WAC sandwich.


HAWAII 23 San Jose St 20 - UH has won the L/7 gms (L/4 in Honolulu). SJSt is 4-8 SU but is 8-4 ATS
in this series. In their last visit to Aloha Stadium in ‘06, SJSt lost 54-17 (+25). The Spartans are 17-9
ATS incl a current 8-3 ATS run. However, SJSt is 11-13 SU (14-9-1 ATS) under HC Tomey in WAC gms
& the Spartans are 1-17 SU & 7-12 ATS as an AD. Tomey was the HC at Hawaii (‘77-’86) & he turned the
Warriors program around (63-46-3) before moving on to Arizona. Tomey, a fan-favorite with the Hawaiian
locals, fl irted this past offseason with taking the UH AD job but opted to stay. UH has the edge on off
(#88-105) & ST (#86-94) but SJSt gets the nod on def (#47-80). UH expected to see some dropoff in
off production TY from its #3 rated off in the NCAA LY but 3 gms into ‘08, the Warriors are #103 in the
NCAA in ttl off & #119 in TO margin (7 int & 4 fmbl thru 3 gms). UH is 1-2 SU but is 0-3 ATS under new
HC McMackin. LY SJSt almost ended UH’s chance at a BCS bowl as the Spartans led 35-21 on a soggy
fi eld in the rain, but the Warriors got a TD with :31 left to send it to OT & won it there. UH is coming off
a much-needed bye week with a trip to Fresno on deck while SJSt has a bye next week.



KENTUCKY 31 Western Kentucky 10 - 1st meeting (150 miles apart). Playing in the SEC, UK knows
the key to getting to a bowl is taking care of business in non-conf games. They are 9-3 ATS in those
and struggled vs Mid Tenn. UK MLB Johnson, DT Lumpkin and QB/WR Cobb are listed as doubtful
for this gm (high ankle sprains) and HC Brooks has stated that he would like to get some younger
players more reps vs WKU. UK QB Hartline is avg 154 ypg (57%) with a 2-0 ratio. While they have
their SEC opener on deck, they are fresh off a bye while WKU is playing their 4th road game in 5
weeks. In 4 trips to the SEC, their avg loss is 46-8. QB Wolke has started the last 2 gms and is avg
151 ypg (56%) with a 3-2 ratio. UK has a huge advantage on def (#27-120).



MEMPHIS 28 Arkansas St 24 - Memphis should show no let up here as last year they led 31-6 at
the half but lost 35-31 on the road. ASU had a 53 yd Hail Mary TD on the fi nal play in ‘06 at Memphis
for two miracle wins in a row after Memphis had won the previous 10 SU. The HT is 4-2 ATS but Mem
is just 6-12 as a HF. Despite being 0-3 vs IA, they have outgained those 3 opponents on avg 479-
423. QB Hall is avg 267 ypg (60%) with a 4-3 ratio and WR Singleton has 25 rec (13.2). ASU’s CB’s
(5-10 and 5-9) are going up against the tallest rec corp in college FB. They are off their 31-14 conf
opener victory over Mid Tenn outgaining them 440-315 with QB Leonard having the best offensive
night of his career with 366 ttl yds. He is avg 234 ypg (57%) with a 10-1 ratio. RB Arnold has 373
yds (6.7) and Lawson has 368 (9.0). These two tms are ranked close on off and def but ASU has
the advantage on ST’s (#15-78).



OKLAHOMA ST 38 Troy 21 - LY Troy led 41-10 as OSU had 176 of its 432 yds (41%) and 2 TD in
the 4Q, an embarrassing loss for the Cowboys on the road. QB Robinson (avg 198 ypg, 69%, with
a 4-3 ratio in ‘08) made his starting debut having a tough day (18-37-49%-191-1-2). That will ensure
the Cowboys full focus here as OSU is off a bye, 12-6 as a HF and 22-2 SU & 10-4 ATS vs the SBC.
Troy LW faced a very physical Ohio St tm but held their own (only trailed 14-10 after 3Q & outgained
the Bucks 315-309) and will be playing on the road for the 3rd time in 5 wks (LSU gm cancelled).
QB Hampton is avg 226 ypg (68%) with a 6-5 ratio. Troy is 5-2 ATS vs BCS tms, but OSU has seen
the spread offense before as multiple B12 members run a version of it & they are #7 in pass eff D
allowing 164 ypg (49%) with a 6-1 ratio. Troy does have a huge SBC gm on deck and OSU will not
overlook any tm even with B12 play starting next wk.



TOLEDO 37 Florida Int’l 17 - 1st meeting. FIU has played only 1 other MAC tm, a 33-28 loss to
BG in ‘06. Toledo is 43-7 SU in the Glass Bowl and 17-8 as a HF and even in LY’s 5-7 season, they
were 5-2 SU (4-2 ATS) at home. Toledo delivered as our Underdog POW and Top Weekly LPS with
a 55-54 2OT loss vs Fresno St LW. They had a 238-98 yd edge at the half but only led 21-17. UT
has a shot at winning the conf title if they beat Ball St next week and will probably give their “C”
effort this gm. UT QB Opelt is avg 183 ypg (57%) with a 7-1 ratio. RB Collins has 360 yds (8.2) but
was inj’d LW (check status) and WR Williams has 21 rec (10.9). They have our #38 off. Cristobal is
3-6 as an AD. FIU got their fi rst TD of the ssn which was also their fi rst game in their new stadium
but lost 17-9 to USF giving us a 3’★ Totals Play Winner on the Under. Both QB’s continue to play
with McCall avg 58 ypg and Younger 59. FIU has our #119 off and is being outgained by an avg of
405-182 yds after their 1st 3 gms.



KANSAS ST 48 Louisiana-Lft 20 - ULL has lost both meetings vs KSU (avg score 37-13), with
the last a 40-20 cover in ‘04 (+31). HC Prince is 2-0 SU & ATS vs the SBC (avg score 45-3). KSU
was embarrassed on National TV LW by UL being outgained by 234 yds (31-14 FD) & K-St was
outrushed 303 (5.5)-30 (2.5). QB Freeman is avg 278 ypg (64%) with an 8-2 ratio (both int vs UL).
Prince is 7-1 as a HF & KSU is 8-0 SU & 5-0 ATS vs non-conf/non-BCS tms at home with the avg
win by 35 ppg. ULL rolled Kent St LW outgaining the Flashes 667-396 (414, 8.0 on the ground!). QB
Desormeaux is avg 184 ypg (64%) with a 2-2 ratio and leads the tm with 338 rush yds (7.2). He has
accounted for 66% of ULL’s off TY. ULL is 2-5 ATS vs BCS schools (did play Illinois tough 2W ago),
12-7 as an AD, but has its full SBC slate on deck and could use this as a mail in game vs a Wildcat
tm that hammers inferior foes as they really need to get a nonexsistent ground gm going (just 124
ypg, ULL allowing 283 rush ypg) before B12 play begins next wk.




RICE 42 North Texas 25 - Last met in ‘88. The Mean Green are 3-15 SU since 1998 vs in-state
schools (wins in ‘06, ‘03 & ‘98). Rice is 2-17 SU (2-8 ATS) vs non-conf but 10-6 ATS at home. HC
Baliff lost all 3 HG’s they were favored in outright LY and the Owls come in off a 3 game road trip.
Rice has their ex-coach Graham on deck and gave a big effort vs him LY. They lost to Vandy despite
outgaining them 407-344 and are off a 52-10 loss to Texas passing for 301 yds but being sk’d 7
times and were outgained 600-318. QB Clement is avg 282 ypg (64%) with a 9-3 ratio and is also
the leading rusher with 214 yds (3.8). WR Casey has 37 rec (11.5). NT is 9-18 as an AD and off a
bye. They are giving up 312 ypg (65%) with a 9-2 ratio and have not sk’d an opponent yet. They are
being outgained by an avg of 484-285 ypg (Kansas St, Tulsa & LSU). NT QB Vizza is avg 165 ypg
(60%) with a 3-0 ratio and WR Fitzgerald has 24 rec (7.8). Both defenses are close but Rice has the
clear offensive advantage (#48-110) and has only been a DD fav twice in L4Y (1-1 ATS).



TEXAS 48 Arkansas 13 - This was rescheduled due to Hurricane Ike. Texas last hosted Ark in ’03
and was upset (-13’) 38-28 which broke a 20 game home win streak. QB McCoy has put the “soph
slump” talk to sleep avg 278 pass ypg (78%) with an 11-1 ratio and is also the tm’s top rusher. He will
feast on a young Ark secondary that is ranked #99 in our pass eff D. The second mismatch will be
an improved UT DL against an Ark OL in their fi rst road game. The third is a Texas rush attack (204
ypg, 5.1) that should maul a Hogs defense that allowed 328 yds & 9.4 ypc rushing LW. This used to
be one of the best rivalries in the NCAA and most assuredly was the focus of UT’s preseason prep
with Brown being 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS vs the Hogs. UT is 9-3 as a HF of 17+. This is the second
straight big step up in competition for Petrino & Co after struggling to get past W Ill and ULM in the
fi rst 2 wks and getting beaten 49-14 vs Bama LW. We have played on or against Ark 6 times as a
5★. Will we use a Hogs game again for the Big Play?




Tuesday, September 30th - Florida Atlantic at MIDDLE TENN - FAU held MT to 18 yds rushing
(217 ttl) and forced 4 TO’s in LY’s 27-14 win and FAU’s young team is 3-2 SU vs MT. MT is 15-88
SU in SBC HG’s and catch the Owls on their 4th road game in 5 weeks. FAU is 7-1 SU away from
home in the SBC and is 3-0 as an AF. This is the 1st ever prime time national broadcast by ESPN
at Floyd Stadium.




Wednesday, October 1st - Louisiana Tech at BOISE ST - LT won the fi rst four gms in the series
but BSU has won the L/6 (3-3 ATS) from ‘02-’07 by an avg of 24 ppg. These two avg 69 ppg. In LT’s
last two trips to Boise, the Broncos won by the identical score of 55-14. LY in Ruston it was tied
24-24 in the 3Q but LT couldn’t overcome 4 TO’s but did cover only losing 45-31(+15). The HT is
7-2 ATS (5-4 SU) in the series S/’97. BSU has won every WAC HG since it began play in the conf in
‘01 (28-0) & the Broncos are fresh off their fi rst-ever road win over a BCS foe topping #17 Oregon
LW. Boise is 14-2 SU & 11-3 ATS on weekday regular season games S/’01 including a mark of 10-0
SU & 7-1 ATS at home.






COMPUTER CORNER
The Computer Corner will feature the top plays
from our Computer Power Ratings. These plays
are based solely on the teams' Power Ratings
vs the Vegas Line & do not take into account
matchups, injuries, etc. The team that is listed
in bold is the computer's selection.



Computer Forecast

Diff / Vegas
N Illinois by 10.9 over E MICHIGAN 4.9
CLEMSON by 7.4 over Maryland 4.6
Bowling Green by 7.8 over WYOMING 4.3
UTEP by 1.3 over Ucf 5.8
NEW MEX ST by 4.2 over New Mex 8.2
TEXAS by 35.1 over Arkansas 7.1
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