Sports memo best bets
ROB VENO
NORTHWESTERN AT OHIO STATE -11
O/U 42.5
Recommendation: Ohio State
The bye week figures to have helped Ohio State in numerous areas and I expect
the Buckeyes to come out extremely revved up for this contest. The extra
practice time for freshman QB Terrell Pryor and the first-team offense should
lead to more points from OSU. Since conference play begun, the Wildcats’ defense
has not been as good as the overall numbers might suggest. Through five
Big Ten affairs, the Wildcats have allowed 377 total yards per game and if you
eliminate the punch-less offenses of Syracuse, Southern Illinois and Ohio from
their schedule, you’ll find that their other six opponents have gained nearly 400
ypg of offense, keyed by 264 ypg passing on 64% completions. Look for OSU’s
dual-threat ability of Pryor and Wells to open the doors for a very successful
air attack. Northwestern should be ripe for a letdown after a remarkable last
second victory as a road underdog to 7-2 Minnesota. Combine that with the
fact that Ohio State has yielded just 23 points in its last three games and you
have all the makings of a rout. The Buckeyes are still playing for a coveted
Rose Bowl invitation which will have them focused and ready for a big win.
JARED KLEIN
NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA -1
O/U 49
Recommendation: Atlanta
The Atlanta Falcons have been one of the bigger surprises of the season thanks to a sound
defense and ball control offense. Running back Michael Turner’s arrival was the perfect
compliment to quarterback Matt Ryan’s development. In fact, you couldn’t have gotten a
better situation than to have a rookie quarterback playing behind the league’s No. 1 rush
offense. But while the run game is the first option, Ryan has shown he can stretch the
field and make good decisions. In facing the league’s 24th-ranked pass defense, we fully
expect another balanced offensive performance out of the Falcons. New Orleans comes
in off a bye week and its trip to London where they moved to 4-4 with a win over the
Chargers. It is no secret that the Saints want to throw the ball early and often but we’ve
see the Falcons’ bend but don’t break defense come out victorious when forcing teams
into a one-dimensional mode. In wins over Chicago, Green Bay and Detroit, the Falcons
allowed 359 ypg passing but limited the run game to 81 ypg. Those numbers are almost
identical to what the Saints average for the season. After getting rid of the bad apples and
making some smart off-season moves, you could argue the Falcons have surpassed the
Saints in terms of overall ability. Look for a big divisional win from them this weekend.
FAIRWAY JAY
JACKSONVILLE AT DETROIT +6
O/U 45
Recommendation: Detroit
We cashed another outright underdog winner on the Cincinnati Bengals over
Jacksonville last week as part of our 5-1 service play Sunday. We’ll come right
back with another ugly home underdog this week. The Lions remain winless
after letting a victory get away at Chicago last week, but they’ve been more
competitive in their last four games versus better opponents than Jacksonville.
The Lions’ No. 31-ranked running attack remains a problem along with
an inexperienced quarterback unable to make consistent plays in the passing
game. But the Bengals’ equally poor QB play and running game had a
season-high 159 rushing yards last week against this troubled Jaguars defense
that allows over 5.8 ypp, 4.5 ypr and 7.5 ypp. The Jaguars’ offensive
line play remains a concern, along with the team’s mental make-up following
back-to-back losses as 7-point favorites. We’ve also seen head coach Jack Del
Rio lash out at his players en route to being placed on the coaching hot seat.
Overall, the Jaguars’ prevalent chemistry and confidence issues combined
with the Lions still clawing for their first victory has us taking the points.
TIM TRUSHEL
GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA -2.5
O/U 45
Recommendation: Minnesota
Gus Frerotte has made a huge difference for this Minnesota team as the Vikings have
outpassed the opposition in four of their last six games. They rank in the upper half of
the league in both yardage and scoring while still keying their offense with a very strong
rushing attack. Defensively, they are tremendous at stopping the run, allowing just 69.6
ypg. At 4-4 at the midway point they are in good position for the time being within
their division. However, having already suffered losses to both Chicago and Green Bay,
these remaining division battles take on added meaning. Green Bay is a similarly skilled,
but flawed team. While more successful with the passing attack they have struggled to
maintain a consistent rush offense. Defensively they are much weaker in stopping the run
and that plays favorably to Minnesota’s offense. In the first meeting between these two
teams, the Packers escaped with a Monday Night home win. If Minnesota had a adequate
passing attack at the time instead of Tarvaris Jackson, they likely would have reversed the
outcome. With that option now available, we like Minnesota to earn the win. Home field
in a win situation has been a consistent earner for Minnesota as they are 7-1 straight up
and against the spread as a home favorite of -3 or less. Look for that success to continue.
DONNIE BLACK
UL-MONROE AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE -4
O/U 51
Recommendation: Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee hasn’t had a particularly stellar season but by Sun Belt standards
they’ve played a pretty difficult schedule. Out of conference, the Blue Raiders have faced
the likes of Maryland, Kentucky, Louisville and Mississippi State. In those four games,
they are a miniscule -23 in points scored. Plus in their lone blowout loss, they headed into
the fourth quarter against Louisville down 21-17. Within conference play, it hasn’t been
much easier, having played the current top four teams in the league. Middle Tennessee’s
previous eight opponents allow an average of 337 ypg and 22.6 ppg. UL-Monroe allows
over 450 ypg and 29.3 ppg. We also see that there is a 90 ypg game difference in favor
of the Blue Raiders in overall defense - a number worthy of note when you consider
their schedule versus that of Monroe, who has faced just two BCS opponents. In fact,
MTSU’s schedule difficulty (76th) ranks much higher than UL-Monroe (129th) and that
includes the Warhawks’ contest against No. 1 Alabama. MTSU QB Joe Craddock should
match the 404 yards and four TDs on 22-of-29 passing in the Blue Raiders’ victory in
Monroe last season. This week with MTSU rested and ready and Monroe off an upset
win over Troy, the situationals call for the home team to post a spreading-covering win.
BRENT CROW
UTEP AT UL-LAFAYETTE -9
O/U 72.5
Recommendation: UL-Lafayette
This play comes from a huge advantage in the most important aspect of
football: one team’s ability to run the football and the other teams’ inability
to stop them from doing so. In all of my years of doing the ACCU-STATS:
True Rushing numbers in college football, I am not sure I have found an
advantage as lopsided as this game. ULL is simply one of the premier running
teams in the nation. Ricky Bustle’s squad has gained 2,505 yards on
the ground at 7.10 yards per carry. In addition, they throw it for 7.07
yards per pass play and have scored 37 points or more in five of their last
six games. The Cajuns will have little resistance against a UTEP defense
that has allowed 6.04 yards per carry and 7.90 yards per pass play. In a recent
three-game stretch, the Miners allowed 287 rushing yards to Southern
Miss, 329 to Tulane and 324 to Tulsa -- none of which run the ball as
well as UL-Lafayette. I expect UTEP to score some points of their own,
but in the end, the running game will prove to be too much to handle
and the Miners won’t be able to keep up with the Cajuns. Lay the points.
ED CASH
OKLAHOMA STATE +3.5 AT TEXAS TECH
O/U 74
Recommendation: Oklahoma State
Texas Tech moved up to the No. 2 spot in the BCS standings after its monster
come-from-behind win over Texas. But the season is far from over for
the Red Raiders as they play host to Oklahoma State this weekend and then
head on the road to face Oklahoma in two weeks. I personally don’t think
there is much difference between any of the top four or five teams in the
Big XII. When I took a look through the Big XII’s statistics, I tried to find if
either Oklahoma State or Texas Tech had a significant advantage in this
matchup but I couldn’t find one. From a situational standpoint however I
see OSU with a big edge, especially getting over a field goal. Texas actually
dealt with its success as well as any team in recent memory but their fourth
straight game against top-notch competition finally caught up to them last
week. I don’t expect the Red Raiders to be nearly as sharp this week after
the amount of attention they will no questionably receive throughout the
week. Oklahoma State was also one drive away from beating Texas in Austin
and I feel they are poised to close the deal in Lubbock. Take the points.
TEDDY COVERS
NC STATE +5 AT DUKE
O/U 48.5
Recommendation: NC State
We’ve made some money betting on the Duke this year in their preferred role as an
underdog. In fact, David Cutcliffe has helped continue the Blue Devils’ propensity to
cover as an underdog with a 4-2 ATS this year and a 5-2 ATS mark in 2007 as a road
underdog. Duke as a favorite of more than a field goal is another story entirely, particularly
coming off a crushing overtime loss at Wake Forest. The Blue Devils’ weakness
in the kicking game cost them once again, as Nick Maggio missed a 41-yard attempt
at the end of regulation. That was followed by a Thaddeus Lewis interception
in overtime. Now, we’ve seen the betting marketplace install Duke as a solid favorite
against another in-state rival, despite the fact that Duke has lost five straight meetings
with NC State in Durham and 10 straight meetings overall. Since the inception
of overtime in college football in 1996, home favorites coming off an overtime loss
are a dismal 25-44-2 ATS, cashing only 36% of the time. Beating a rested Wolfpack
squad following their bye week will be no easy task for Duke, let alone beating them
by more than a field goal. NC State hung tough with Maryland in a three-point spread
covering road loss prior to the bye, and I expect them to hang tough in this one.
ERIN RYNNING
BAYLOR +26 AT TEXAS
O/U 66.5
Recommendation: Baylor
The Longhorns will try to pick up the pieces from last week’s heartbreaking
loss to Texas Tech, as Baylor comes to town. No question, the Longhorns
should show some signs of fatigue given their recent stretch of
top quality competition. Games against Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma
State and Texas Tech led to one of the toughest stretches in recent memory.
The emotion of the Oklahoma State and Texas Tech games coming
down to the last possession alone is enough to make any team a tough
sell the following week. Meanwhile, it would make Baylor’s season with
a strong showing in Austin. Dynamic freshman quarterback Robert Griffin
can keep the Bears in the game with his arm and legs as the injuries
and suspect play of Texas’ secondary should allow for a couple of Baylor
scores. Last season, the Bears averaged just 78 ypg rushing and 13.5 ppg
against the Big XII and came away with the spread cover (+26) in a 31-10
loss against the Longhorns. This season, those numbers are up to 183 ypg
and 21.8 ppg. We’ll take the big points with an improving Baylor squad.
