Money Management !

[valueman]

I bet horses only so it's a little different to sports betting but the principal is the same.

I study the form with no influence on what the estimated odds will be and use my own ratings, how the race will pan out, ground, jockey etc as factors to determine the odds.

For the race in question on Saturday, I came up with:

Horse A - +110
Horse B - +137
Horse C - +1600
Horse D - +2200

This is with no morning line influence to steer my judgement. Actual available odds for the race were;

Horse A - -150
Horse B - +250
Horse C - +600
Horse D - +1400

In my previous post I said i made the horse +237 and could get +350 - should have been +137 and could get +250 (these american odds are not too familiar to me)

So the clear bet was horse B and the difference was big enough to warrant a larger bankroll bet. Many times i analyse a race and my odds and the actual odds available indicate that i shouldn't be doing a bet. that's where your discipline has to prevent you frm forcing a bet beacause you've analysed a race for 2 hours.

 

[acw]

valueman,

Your post is theoratically correct, but please realise that many will already have the problem of not being able to get enough on and as such are underbetting. What has also interested me in life is that some do have an edge betting, but have no clue how big their advantage really is. Well how much do you suggest those to bet?

 

[oldmanTED]

augs15

Because you have indicated that you don't yet have a method that you are comfortable with due to "lack of knowledge", I would agree with those that are recommending either a flat 1% or a varying 1-2% of your overall bankroll.

As SSI stated, as your bankroll grows or decreases you can adjust your wager accordingly. With a $1500 bankroll, you might consider increasing or decreasing your wagers once you have reached + or - 10%, i.e. a bankroll of $1650 or $1350.

Once you become more comfortable with these methods, you can consider a more variable rate like 1-3%. But at this stage, it is better that you focus on picking winning plays and not have to worry about the wager, thus the flat or small varying rate.

As for spreading the money in different books, I would recommend three $500 accounts. This way your bankroll in each one is just large enough that the minimum bet will be accepted and any particular account won't get depleted too fast. If you open five $300 accounts, you may find that even making a small wager may deplete the account if you have a short losing streak.

Good luck to you.

 

[valueman]

Not being able to get enough is a problem that all professionals/semi professionals have to deal with.

knowing who big your edge is what my system is about - by pricing up the event yourself - the difference in those odds tells you how big if any your edge is.

having the ability and analytical skills to do this accurately is obviously down to the individual. I have a chart for the staking plan but its in fractional odds that i could e-mail to you if you want. - it's sort of geared to horses but could be easily converted.

 

[PeteRoseJR]

Thanks Old man Ted

What is a "square" book and how is Bowmans? I m a canadian so I think I can open account in UK.

As for actual wagering do most sharps play a single style of wagers
ie. strictly over unders
strickly road dogs etc.

Brad

 

[acw]

valueman,

Personally I worked out pretty well what my advantages are. I play (1/2) Kelly and one can only play that if one at least starts to price up.

Point is that many guys never price up, but still manage to win. Would their winning % on turnover be a good guide to start with as their advantage in order to increase their bank-roll? If so, then those that have an edge of 5%, should not bet 1% of their bank-roll. Agree?

 

[oldmanTED]

Brad

Don't worry about anyone's statement regarding a book being "square". They are implying that it is a book where all the amateurs, small players, and public make their wagers and that the book won't take wagers from wise guys, sharps, or professionals.

The most important book for a player is the one that pays him without hesitation. Bowmans has been around for a long time and is certainly capable of taking your level of play and you probably wouldn't have any problem getting paid.

The books advertised on this site are mostly pretty well respected. If you can only wager in the UK, check the books here at the RX for one or more that might fit your needs.

As for wagering by sharps, there is no single style used. A good professional looks for value wherever it can be found and wagers accordingly.

Hope the information helps you.

 

[valdosta]

I like what valueman says in this thread about varying the amounts of your bets depending on the odds BUT with your typical player who is just starting off, that probably isn't the best way to go. I have only gambled 2 years and won both years BUT have learned a lot of stuff based off some stupid mistakes. You are always going to make mistakes over an amount of time but those who learn from them make less. If someone sharpens thereselve up a bit (as they go along) then I would recommend your way of betting

 

[valueman]

acw - for someone to make a profit without being able to price up an event is kind of amazing to me but taking your word for it that people do it - then they have to assume that their edge is equal over all bets - so fixed % of bankroll bets are a good a point as any. I wouldn't increase my bets as % of bankroll if I'm winning - the bankroll going up takes care of it.

valdosta - this is probably true. My one question to all bettors is "do you ask yourself the question why are doing this bet every time you bet" If the answer isn't " I think the odds I'm getting are better than the real chances in my eyes then you shouldn't be betting on that event - pure and simple"

So if you aren't able to price up an event then you have no business betting on it in my view.

 

[mvbski]

Brad, your getting some great advice here make sure you soak it all in because this is cheaper than learning the hard way,a point that hasnt been raised is dont bet just to have action,say on monday night football you dont like the game but feel you need a bet to watch the game dont.Only bet situations where [A] you have a real opinion on the gameyou are getting value,never take a bad number pass if you have to[C]never chase a loser with a bet to try get even.You wont get rich overnite but if you take your time and keep to your stragety to make money doing this you can do it.

 

[RobFunk]

1 more tip is not bet on games involving the minnesota vikings. you never know which team is going to show up.

 

[PeteRoseJR]

ya writing this forum has turned out to be quite good.

Thanks

Brad


How much juice should you pay on teasers--2 and 3 team
and how many points does that give you in hoops and football?

 

[BuzzRavanaugh]

This is maybe one of the most informative threads I have ever read. I would print this out after all the comments are on it.

Augs- Something I recently started doing and I don't know if its right or wrong is that I have started a separate bankroll for halftimes. I got tired of using the same bankroll and losing the halftimes and I thought they were taking from my winning other wagers. I am also considering a separate bankroll for parlays, as there are some good offers out there I wouldn't mind being a little more aggressive with say 10 percent of my bankroll.

You gotta protect your bankroll because that is what keeps you in business.

 

[RobFunk]

yea and how should i handle playing super spreads and fantasy match ups.

 

[mvbski]

Aug, forget about teasers and parlays it is hard enough to win one game let alone two if they were such great bets would they be offering them ? concetrate on picking one at a time

 

[Sodium Pentethol V]

Pay attention, this is the best money management sytem ever created for small bettors.

Reason why is, if you are actually a winning player, your bets will increase as you win, if you are a loser, you will lose whatever it is you would've lost in the first place.


Divide your BR by your estimated number of bets. So if have a $500 BR and figure on making 50 bets, that is $10 a bet.

Bet $10 every single time, if you are ahead at any point in time bet the square root of the profit on top of the $10.

So if you win your first three bets, you will now be +$30, your next bet would be for $10 plus the square root of $30, for simplicity sake we will round off and say =$5. So next bet will be $15. If at antime you fall below the breakeven than you just bet only the $10.

This is a fun system for small guys that do not have to worry about max bet limits, as if you are a winner, the bet amounts can jump pretty quickly, plus it breaks up the monotony of betting a fixed percentage of bankroll.

 

[Sodium Pentethol V]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>I have a system where I assign odds to each outcome (my odds) and my stake depends on the difference between my odds and the odds available <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Kelly criterion babble has sent more talented folks to the poor house than any single other thing involved in gambling, while erstwhile folks chase down illusionary and misperceived edges.

This is insane. First off you have to be able to distinguish properly between a 10/1 and a 20/1 shot? Yea best of luck there chum and you can post how good you are till blue in the face, but there ain't no one in the world good enough to estimate the minute differences required to make this successful.

Secondly, there is such a thing as market efficiency, above a certain point, any difference you perceive is an illusion, the markets are never off by that much and you are betting more on an illusion.

Lastly, anything that involves betting a greater difference that X to 1.5X is doomed to fail.

 

[hanover00]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Secondly, there is such a thing as market efficiency, above a certain point, any difference you perceive is an illusion, the markets are never off by that much and you are betting more on an illusion.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Sodium, I have to agree with you here. I've looked at this issue and talked to many experienced bettors about it. Come to the conclusion that I may have a good idea that I have an edge in a particular situation, but when handicapping any uncertain event it is really not possible to know precisely how big that edge is.

The decisions for me are "yes/no" decisions only with fixed dollar bets for each event.

 

[valueman]

Sodium - barking at me again! - well nice to see to see nothing changes!

Firstly I don't find it that hard to price up between a 10/1 and 20/1 shot but it doesn't really make that much difference to me anyway.

I will never back anything that in my eyes has more than a 10 or 12/1 chance of winning and in most of these circumstances the horse is 33/1 nad wih my staking chart this comes to my minimum 0.5 - 1.0% bankroll bet.

Having fixed units for betting is ok if you can't price up accurately but you just don't know when you are doing a good bet.

If you bet horses which from your posts you do - don't you get a warm feeling before doing some bets? - like you know these have an outstanding chance of winning. You'll know then that more often than not these ones win. If you haven't been able to distinguish that this is a really good bet, you will miss out with a fixed stake system and this good bet will be diluted with average bets that have equal stakes. I would make less profits every year with a fixed odds system. eg. saturday backed 5/1 - 2nd, 40/1 - 5th, 11/2 - 3rd, 6/1 - 4th, 5/2 - Winner - yet i ended up $700 up. this was because I recognised that the 5/2 was the best bet amongst those (not the shortest price but the best bet).I would have been down 1.5 units on a fixed stake system!

The trouble here is were not comparing like with like here - I can use this system because I bet at fixed odds and US Horse race bettors can't because they bet on Pari-Mutuel and don't know what odds they're backing at but it certainly applies to sports betting.

 

[peskypup]

the first thing to say to a newbie is that if you are not sure what your edge is then DO NOT BET if the purpose of your betting is profit and not pure entertainment.

Once you have "shadow bet" or bet with real small stakes to the point where you are confident you have an edge then you can start to think about staking systems.

NO STAKING SYSTEM WILL SAVE A BAD SELECTION SYSTEM.

IMO if you can't define when your edge is high-medium-low then you don't know your sport as well as you could, bet TO WIN the same % of bankroll each time.

When you do bet to win say 2 or 3 units, or reduce to 0.5 units on a low edge pick, make a separate note of these picks.

My records show that when I am confident I have a high edge a make 8 or 9% compared to my standard 5%.

When I think I have a below average edge I make 4 to 5% so perhaps I am a little bit risk averse on some of these.

The only other piece of advice on staking is - and always will be IMO - the single most important.

NEVER increase your staking unit after a loss.

Your bankroll has reduced after a loss. If you genuinely have an edge, the only way you can realistically lose all of your bankroll in the long run is to chase losses. Just be patient and in the end you will be back where you were before the loss.