FRIDAY, DECEMBER 29, 2023
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
Clemson has stumbling and bumbling around the midseason mark this year, and it took head coach Dabo Swinney seemingly getting angry and defiant about the quality of his program and the players in it to wake them up. The Tigers went on to win their last four games outright and ATS to eventually earn a Gator Bowl bid versus Kentucky. Is it the best bowl game that Swinney and his team have ever played? Of course not, but from all indications, it does seem to mean a lot to them.
Speaking of Swinney, he will have a large bowl game coaching experience edge in this one over Kentucky’s Stoops, and as such, this system will be in play: Digging further on the general experience difference, in bowl games since 2016 that have a difference of at least 10 bowl games coached between the opposing head coaches, the more experienced one is 37-20 SU and 39-17-1 ATS (69.6%). Also, favorites are on a run of 22-3 SU and 18-7 ATS in Gator Bowl games, and considering this line is only four points when my Power Ratings say it should be 7.5, Clemson is an underpriced favorite.
Let’s lay the 4-points (+/-1) with Clemson
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
As of Thursday, 75% of the betting handle at DraftKings for the Sun Bowl was coming in on Notre Dame as 6-point favorites. Some of it may have come in before Irish QB Sam Hartman opted out of the game, but even with that money disparity, the line has dropped from 10.5 points to 6. Going into this season, in bowl games between 1992-2022 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 35-19-1 ATS (64.8%).
The fact that the Irish are 6-point favorites is also important in terms of the history of the Sun Bowl, as favorites of five points or more are just 1-13 ATS in the Sun Bowl game since 1995. Both teams have had key opt-outs, and in a game that has historically seen a lot of weird stuff happen over the years, I see very little reason why anyone would lay points.
Let’s go with Oregon State +6 (+/-1)
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Missouri has found the going quite tough since joining the SEC, but the Tigers enjoyed a big year and won double-digit games for the first time since 2014. They have a chance to win their first bowl game since the end of that season as well, but the team standing in their way is the mighty Ohio State Buckeyes. Of course, I use the term “mighty” very loosely in this case, as it seems that the Cotton Bowl is the last place the program wants to be after yet another loss to Michigan to close the regular season. Not only was this OSU team far from its usual standards in terms of offensive capability, but for this bowl game, it seems that more key players are opting out or transferring than looking to play.
I can almost guarantee that even on the day before the game, we have not heard the last of this news. There is no doubt in my mind that Missouri wants to be here a lot more. We’ll see if that’s the difference, but if line moves are any indication, the experts behind the counter feel the same as I do. The Tigers went from 6-point dogs at opening to -2.5 favorites at last check. They played the best teams on their schedule this year very well, too, going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS versus bowl teams. I expect this to be a competitive game.
Let’s go Missouri +3.5, or wherever it goes to at kickoff based upon WR Harrison status
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2023
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
In its two most critical games this season against quality opponents, Penn State mustered a total of 27 points on Ohio State and Michigan. The offense totally misfired. Would I put Ole Miss on the level of those two teams? Probably a bit below that, but still a high-quality opponent with a solid defense. The other thing Ole Miss does is run the ball often. Like PSU, the Rebels run the ball over 56% of the time. The problem here is that I don’t believe either team will be able to overwhelm the other upfront.
What does this all mean to me? Well, I think we could be looking at a defensive slugfest where the first team that gets to 20 points wins it. If you want some trends to affirm it, Ole Miss has gone Under the total in its last six bowl games, and head coach Lane Kiffin has a 5-0 Under the total bowl game record since ’12.
Let’s go UNDER 48.5 (+/-1.5 points) in the Peach Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
For as much as it seems like neither team cares a whole lot about the Orange Bowl on Saturday, it seems as if FSU cares less, as it sounds like 20 key players will be missing the game, including the #1, #2, and #4 quarterbacks. Almost as if the school is trying to make a mockery of the game because of what happened in the deciding of the final four playoff teams.
How big is this in a game against a team like Georgia? Well, it's hard to imagine the Seminoles mustering up many good plays on either side of the ball, much less scoring anything significant to make it a competitive contest. There is a reason that the Bulldogs have ballooned to 20-point favorites after opening about -14 when the games were announced. We again find this system in play. In bowl games between 1992-2022 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 35-19-1 ATS (64.8%).
There is also another bowl game system in play from my Motivational Factors article based upon Georgia’s underachievement against the spread this season that has gone 5-1-1 so far over the last couple of weeks: Teams that are 25%+ worse against the spread on the season are 43-26 ATS (62.3%) over the last 10 seasons in bowl games after an impressive 5-1 ATS performance in ’22-23. If that weren’t enough, head coach Kirby Smart is 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in bowl games, and Georgia is 22-7 SU and 20-9 ATS in bowl games since ’98.
Let’s lay the big number (-20 +/- 2) with Georgi
MONDAY, JANUARY 1, 2024
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
LSU played so many big games this season against some of the nation’s top teams that a letdown in the ReliaQuest Bowl game against Wisconsin might be a natural consequence. Well, a lot of people thought the same last year when the Tigers met up with Purdue in the Citrus Bowl. That game only wound up being a 63-7 rout by head coach Brian Kelly’s team.
Now I’m not saying that the Badgers are in line for that kind of beatdown on January 1st, but even without QB Jayden Daniels playing, there is an obvious talent and execution disparity in these teams. HC Luke Fickell’s team was a disappointment this season, with its two most impressive wins coming over a pair of 6-6 teams. They topped the 25-point mark just once in the last eight games. LSU averaged 46.4 PPG.
LSU is a double-digit favorite for a reason, even without Daniels. Sometimes winning decisively is the motivation. Also, look at some of the trends I uncovered in the lead-up to bowl season: LSU is on a 6-2 SU and ATS run in bowl games, with favorites winning the last five outright and ATS while LSU put up 45.6 PPG. If you need more, SEC teams have gone 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight editions of the ReliaQuest Bowl. Badgers will hang in for a while, but in the end, LSU gets it done.
Let’s lay the 10-points with LSU (+/-1)
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
I think a lot of bettors make the mistake nowadays assuming that opt-out news is always bad for teams. That isn’t always the case, and I point to this specific game as reasoning. So just recently, Tennessee QB Joe Milton decided the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl wasn’t worth his time, and it would be better if he prepared for the NFL draft (even though he might not get drafted). Stepping in for the Volunteers will be former #1 ranked recruit in the country Nico Lamaleava.
This game could be a springboard for what we will see from head coach Josh Heupel’s team over the next couple of years, and I expect them to still score some points here with their athleticism advantage. Iowa may have a statistically good defense (and pathetic offense), but if you look at the numbers, my projections still show Tennessee reaching the 20+ point mark. Can the Hawkeyes keep up if that happens? Iowa has a good recent history of playing well in bowl games, but favorites are 6-2 SU and ATS in Iowa’s last eight bowl games, Tennessee is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 bowl games vs. Big 10 foes, and Big 10 teams are just 2-9 SU and ATS in their last 11 Citrus Bowl appearances.
Let’s lay the 6-points (+/-1) with Tennessee
Univ of Phoenix Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
Oregon is a sizable double-digit favorite against an undefeated team in a New Year’s 6-level bowl game. How could this be? Well, the opponent is Liberty, and there is a very good reason that the Flamers have yet to lose in 2023. That being they didn’t play even a single formidable team all year long. Jacksonville State was the so-called best team they faced, with a SM Power Rating of 38. Oregon has a SM PR of 68.
The Ducks are a whole different animal from what head coach Jamey Chadwell’s team has stepped on the field with. Oregon’s QB Bo Nix has taken enough interest in this game that he decided to play. That should tell you enough. I think the only way Oregon gets satisfaction here is by winning big, and there isn’t much Liberty can physically do about it. Public bettors seem to be under the impression that Liberty should be able to score its fair share of points on Oregon, with almost 90% of the handle on the Over for this one. In my opinion, the Ducks’ defense is much underrated, as it allowed just over 17 PPG and held teams almost 20 points below season averages.
Let’s lay the 16.5-points (+/-1.5) with Liberty
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Michigan has endured quite a bit this season both on and off the field but stands tall at the end of the regular season. In fact, the Wolverines are on top of the college football world, having wrapped up the top seed in the CFP. The reward for that feat is a date with mighty Alabama, and bettors don’t like the Wolverines' chances. Even as 1.5-point favorites in the Rose Bowl matchups, Michigan is getting backed by only 25% of the handle at DraftKings as I write. Oddsmakers are not budging on the number, however, insisting they have the right gauge on these teams.
Truthfully, head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team has been the best team in the country wire-to-wire in 2023, and the line, as well as the team’s pessimistic reaction to facing Tide, might not accurately reflect how much better they were. Harbaugh will have them mentally squared away by the time January 1st arrives. Of course, I also have some analytics to go along with my gut feeling: Favorites have swept the last six Alabama bowl games SU and ATS, Alabama is 1-5 SU and ATS as a bowl game underdog since 1998, favorites are on a 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS run in the last 16 years of Rose Bowl games. Michigan has been building towards a title for the last few seasons. Don’t let Alabama’s name cloud the picture of what team is better here.
Let’s take Michigan to win and cover the -1.5
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
You have to consider that this year’s semifinal game between Texas and Washington is a lot like last year’s Alamo Bowl matchup between the teams, as many of the key pieces are still in place. If you recall, the Huskies won that game 27-20 as 3-point dogs. Here, they are 4-point dogs, and just like last year, I think they can win. Why wouldn’t I, Washington has not lost all year long. In that game last December, head coach Kalen DeBoer’s team won the yardage battle 445-420 despite being -1 in turnovers, so it clearly wasn’t a fluke.
How important is it that DeBoer’s team hasn’t lost a game? I think it's crucial, and it was the reason I loved their chances against Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. In my opinion, winning trumps any type of strength ratings or quality of blowout victories. They are getting judged by not running up scores like some other teams choose to. The truth is that they faced a tough schedule, and went 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 against bowl teams. They were 1-4 ATS against non-bowl teams, which shouldn’t matter. Nothing against Texas, but I have to believe Washington has a chip on its shoulder being an underdog in back-to-back key games despite winning their last 20 games.
Let’s go Washington +4 with a little ML action as well
Clemson (-4.5, 45) vs. Kentucky
TaxSlayer Gator BowlTIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
Clemson has stumbling and bumbling around the midseason mark this year, and it took head coach Dabo Swinney seemingly getting angry and defiant about the quality of his program and the players in it to wake them up. The Tigers went on to win their last four games outright and ATS to eventually earn a Gator Bowl bid versus Kentucky. Is it the best bowl game that Swinney and his team have ever played? Of course not, but from all indications, it does seem to mean a lot to them.
Speaking of Swinney, he will have a large bowl game coaching experience edge in this one over Kentucky’s Stoops, and as such, this system will be in play: Digging further on the general experience difference, in bowl games since 2016 that have a difference of at least 10 bowl games coached between the opposing head coaches, the more experienced one is 37-20 SU and 39-17-1 ATS (69.6%). Also, favorites are on a run of 22-3 SU and 18-7 ATS in Gator Bowl games, and considering this line is only four points when my Power Ratings say it should be 7.5, Clemson is an underpriced favorite.
Let’s lay the 4-points (+/-1) with Clemson
Notre Dame (-6, 41.5) vs. Oregon State
Tony the Tiger Sun BowlSun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
As of Thursday, 75% of the betting handle at DraftKings for the Sun Bowl was coming in on Notre Dame as 6-point favorites. Some of it may have come in before Irish QB Sam Hartman opted out of the game, but even with that money disparity, the line has dropped from 10.5 points to 6. Going into this season, in bowl games between 1992-2022 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 35-19-1 ATS (64.8%).
The fact that the Irish are 6-point favorites is also important in terms of the history of the Sun Bowl, as favorites of five points or more are just 1-13 ATS in the Sun Bowl game since 1995. Both teams have had key opt-outs, and in a game that has historically seen a lot of weird stuff happen over the years, I see very little reason why anyone would lay points.
Let’s go with Oregon State +6 (+/-1)
Missouri vs. Ohio State (-3.5, 49)
Goodyear Cotton Bowl ClassicAT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Missouri has found the going quite tough since joining the SEC, but the Tigers enjoyed a big year and won double-digit games for the first time since 2014. They have a chance to win their first bowl game since the end of that season as well, but the team standing in their way is the mighty Ohio State Buckeyes. Of course, I use the term “mighty” very loosely in this case, as it seems that the Cotton Bowl is the last place the program wants to be after yet another loss to Michigan to close the regular season. Not only was this OSU team far from its usual standards in terms of offensive capability, but for this bowl game, it seems that more key players are opting out or transferring than looking to play.
I can almost guarantee that even on the day before the game, we have not heard the last of this news. There is no doubt in my mind that Missouri wants to be here a lot more. We’ll see if that’s the difference, but if line moves are any indication, the experts behind the counter feel the same as I do. The Tigers went from 6-point dogs at opening to -2.5 favorites at last check. They played the best teams on their schedule this year very well, too, going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS versus bowl teams. I expect this to be a competitive game.
Let’s go Missouri +3.5, or wherever it goes to at kickoff based upon WR Harrison status
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2023
Ole Miss vs. Penn State (-4.5, 48.5)
Chick-Fil-A Peach BowlMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
In its two most critical games this season against quality opponents, Penn State mustered a total of 27 points on Ohio State and Michigan. The offense totally misfired. Would I put Ole Miss on the level of those two teams? Probably a bit below that, but still a high-quality opponent with a solid defense. The other thing Ole Miss does is run the ball often. Like PSU, the Rebels run the ball over 56% of the time. The problem here is that I don’t believe either team will be able to overwhelm the other upfront.
What does this all mean to me? Well, I think we could be looking at a defensive slugfest where the first team that gets to 20 points wins it. If you want some trends to affirm it, Ole Miss has gone Under the total in its last six bowl games, and head coach Lane Kiffin has a 5-0 Under the total bowl game record since ’12.
Let’s go UNDER 48.5 (+/-1.5 points) in the Peach Bowl
Georgia (20, 44.5) vs. Florida State
Capital One Orange BowlHard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
For as much as it seems like neither team cares a whole lot about the Orange Bowl on Saturday, it seems as if FSU cares less, as it sounds like 20 key players will be missing the game, including the #1, #2, and #4 quarterbacks. Almost as if the school is trying to make a mockery of the game because of what happened in the deciding of the final four playoff teams.
How big is this in a game against a team like Georgia? Well, it's hard to imagine the Seminoles mustering up many good plays on either side of the ball, much less scoring anything significant to make it a competitive contest. There is a reason that the Bulldogs have ballooned to 20-point favorites after opening about -14 when the games were announced. We again find this system in play. In bowl games between 1992-2022 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 35-19-1 ATS (64.8%).
There is also another bowl game system in play from my Motivational Factors article based upon Georgia’s underachievement against the spread this season that has gone 5-1-1 so far over the last couple of weeks: Teams that are 25%+ worse against the spread on the season are 43-26 ATS (62.3%) over the last 10 seasons in bowl games after an impressive 5-1 ATS performance in ’22-23. If that weren’t enough, head coach Kirby Smart is 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in bowl games, and Georgia is 22-7 SU and 20-9 ATS in bowl games since ’98.
Let’s lay the big number (-20 +/- 2) with Georgi
MONDAY, JANUARY 1, 2024
Wisconsin vs. LSU (-10, 56)
ReliaQuest BowlRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
LSU played so many big games this season against some of the nation’s top teams that a letdown in the ReliaQuest Bowl game against Wisconsin might be a natural consequence. Well, a lot of people thought the same last year when the Tigers met up with Purdue in the Citrus Bowl. That game only wound up being a 63-7 rout by head coach Brian Kelly’s team.
Now I’m not saying that the Badgers are in line for that kind of beatdown on January 1st, but even without QB Jayden Daniels playing, there is an obvious talent and execution disparity in these teams. HC Luke Fickell’s team was a disappointment this season, with its two most impressive wins coming over a pair of 6-6 teams. They topped the 25-point mark just once in the last eight games. LSU averaged 46.4 PPG.
LSU is a double-digit favorite for a reason, even without Daniels. Sometimes winning decisively is the motivation. Also, look at some of the trends I uncovered in the lead-up to bowl season: LSU is on a 6-2 SU and ATS run in bowl games, with favorites winning the last five outright and ATS while LSU put up 45.6 PPG. If you need more, SEC teams have gone 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight editions of the ReliaQuest Bowl. Badgers will hang in for a while, but in the end, LSU gets it done.
Let’s lay the 10-points with LSU (+/-1)
Iowa vs. Tennessee (-6, 36)
Cheez-It Citrus BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
I think a lot of bettors make the mistake nowadays assuming that opt-out news is always bad for teams. That isn’t always the case, and I point to this specific game as reasoning. So just recently, Tennessee QB Joe Milton decided the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl wasn’t worth his time, and it would be better if he prepared for the NFL draft (even though he might not get drafted). Stepping in for the Volunteers will be former #1 ranked recruit in the country Nico Lamaleava.
This game could be a springboard for what we will see from head coach Josh Heupel’s team over the next couple of years, and I expect them to still score some points here with their athleticism advantage. Iowa may have a statistically good defense (and pathetic offense), but if you look at the numbers, my projections still show Tennessee reaching the 20+ point mark. Can the Hawkeyes keep up if that happens? Iowa has a good recent history of playing well in bowl games, but favorites are 6-2 SU and ATS in Iowa’s last eight bowl games, Tennessee is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 bowl games vs. Big 10 foes, and Big 10 teams are just 2-9 SU and ATS in their last 11 Citrus Bowl appearances.
Let’s lay the 6-points (+/-1) with Tennessee
Liberty vs. Oregon (-16.5, 67)
VRBO Fiesta BowlUniv of Phoenix Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
Oregon is a sizable double-digit favorite against an undefeated team in a New Year’s 6-level bowl game. How could this be? Well, the opponent is Liberty, and there is a very good reason that the Flamers have yet to lose in 2023. That being they didn’t play even a single formidable team all year long. Jacksonville State was the so-called best team they faced, with a SM Power Rating of 38. Oregon has a SM PR of 68.
The Ducks are a whole different animal from what head coach Jamey Chadwell’s team has stepped on the field with. Oregon’s QB Bo Nix has taken enough interest in this game that he decided to play. That should tell you enough. I think the only way Oregon gets satisfaction here is by winning big, and there isn’t much Liberty can physically do about it. Public bettors seem to be under the impression that Liberty should be able to score its fair share of points on Oregon, with almost 90% of the handle on the Over for this one. In my opinion, the Ducks’ defense is much underrated, as it allowed just over 17 PPG and held teams almost 20 points below season averages.
Let’s lay the 16.5-points (+/-1.5) with Liberty
Alabama vs. Michigan (-1.5, 44.5)
CFP SEMIFINAL Rose Bowl GameRose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Michigan has endured quite a bit this season both on and off the field but stands tall at the end of the regular season. In fact, the Wolverines are on top of the college football world, having wrapped up the top seed in the CFP. The reward for that feat is a date with mighty Alabama, and bettors don’t like the Wolverines' chances. Even as 1.5-point favorites in the Rose Bowl matchups, Michigan is getting backed by only 25% of the handle at DraftKings as I write. Oddsmakers are not budging on the number, however, insisting they have the right gauge on these teams.
Truthfully, head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team has been the best team in the country wire-to-wire in 2023, and the line, as well as the team’s pessimistic reaction to facing Tide, might not accurately reflect how much better they were. Harbaugh will have them mentally squared away by the time January 1st arrives. Of course, I also have some analytics to go along with my gut feeling: Favorites have swept the last six Alabama bowl games SU and ATS, Alabama is 1-5 SU and ATS as a bowl game underdog since 1998, favorites are on a 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS run in the last 16 years of Rose Bowl games. Michigan has been building towards a title for the last few seasons. Don’t let Alabama’s name cloud the picture of what team is better here.
Let’s take Michigan to win and cover the -1.5
Texas (-4, 63.5) vs. Washington
CFP SEMIFINAL Allstate Sugar BowlCaesars Superdome (New Orleans)
You have to consider that this year’s semifinal game between Texas and Washington is a lot like last year’s Alamo Bowl matchup between the teams, as many of the key pieces are still in place. If you recall, the Huskies won that game 27-20 as 3-point dogs. Here, they are 4-point dogs, and just like last year, I think they can win. Why wouldn’t I, Washington has not lost all year long. In that game last December, head coach Kalen DeBoer’s team won the yardage battle 445-420 despite being -1 in turnovers, so it clearly wasn’t a fluke.
How important is it that DeBoer’s team hasn’t lost a game? I think it's crucial, and it was the reason I loved their chances against Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. In my opinion, winning trumps any type of strength ratings or quality of blowout victories. They are getting judged by not running up scores like some other teams choose to. The truth is that they faced a tough schedule, and went 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 against bowl teams. They were 1-4 ATS against non-bowl teams, which shouldn’t matter. Nothing against Texas, but I have to believe Washington has a chip on its shoulder being an underdog in back-to-back key games despite winning their last 20 games.
Let’s go Washington +4 with a little ML action as well
