Iceman / Old School ..... can you please go into further detail on how the "totals" and "RL" plays have been doing for you so far ... as opposed to just the ML plays. I happen to love to play totals .... but I have not seen any significant success in these two areas using your logic.
Since I read this whole thread a few days ago ... I have been kind of watching these ... if I have the correct movements as well as the correct opening lines you are using for Totals and RL's .... (please post those required line movements again on these if you would). There are many sportsbooks out there with many variations on their lines. I for one tend to primarily look to Pinny when checking systems involving line moves.
Another thing I have noticed on watching some of these plays and the hourly line movements .... at times a line may gradually move with the public as the day goes along .... then about 15 minutes before gametime ... you see it start to go the other way .... Do you pay any attention to this at all ? .... Good example of that was Atlanta last night ... In my opinion .... this is good as it shows some of the late smart money coming in.
In any event .... my hat goes off to you for all the work you have put into this, and your willingness to share your ideas. With that being said .... my hat also goes off to those of you in this thread who have respectively challenged a few points raised here. A truly successful system in any sport is one that has been hashed out, tweaked, and challenged at times. As long as we all share the same goal .... and that of course is winning consistently!
Thanks!
Pak
Since I read this whole thread a few days ago ... I have been kind of watching these ... if I have the correct movements as well as the correct opening lines you are using for Totals and RL's .... (please post those required line movements again on these if you would). There are many sportsbooks out there with many variations on their lines. I for one tend to primarily look to Pinny when checking systems involving line moves.
Another thing I have noticed on watching some of these plays and the hourly line movements .... at times a line may gradually move with the public as the day goes along .... then about 15 minutes before gametime ... you see it start to go the other way .... Do you pay any attention to this at all ? .... Good example of that was Atlanta last night ... In my opinion .... this is good as it shows some of the late smart money coming in.
In any event .... my hat goes off to you for all the work you have put into this, and your willingness to share your ideas. With that being said .... my hat also goes off to those of you in this thread who have respectively challenged a few points raised here. A truly successful system in any sport is one that has been hashed out, tweaked, and challenged at times. As long as we all share the same goal .... and that of course is winning consistently!
Thanks!
Pak
Pak,
I am looking for lines at their apex or close to it. I don't really care if it is bet with so called smart money (which does lose) or public money. Just looking for prices that are far off their set solid opening type numbers.
With that being said let me say another thing it will take HUNDREDS and HUNDREDS of plays to show an edge (IMO). Last week for example I put almost 150 units in to play and was getting CRUSHED monday and tuesday (down almost 15 units) and I ended up with such a great weekend, and finished overall +22.2 units for the week.
I cannot stress enough (and I am sure you know this) that all I am trying to do is put my money/bets into play so many times that eventually the luck portion gets smaller and smaller and I beleive that happens with great prices.
Now I am not some huge gambler or addict but I do beleive in betting a very small pct of bankroll, lots and lots of times and GRINDING out a profit. This is not for the faint of heart but the bets are so small compared to the bankroll for me that I very rarely pay much attention to any of the games. Some players don't like this approach but I have found this works best for me.
These past few days have not been anything to write home about (I have actually lost close to 10 units, must be the whole "posting jinx thing") but HOPEFULLY eventually my edge will come into play with such great numbers. I beleive that is how you win in baseball, getting a legit +120 dog for +138. Do that enough times and bingo.
As for the totals and runlines. I figure prices are prices.I seen this idea work so well with sides that I figured with bigger guidelines than it has to be as effective with totals.
In July I had 2 losing weeks (small but losing weeks) doing this but when I hit big, I hit big. So to answer your question I think the only way to look at this (or anything else for that matter) is to look and play it for close to a thousand plays. In fact my number #1 piece of gambling advice pertains to this idea and that is " when gambling be expecting HUGE flucuations in your bankroll" if you cannot handle it than don't bet.
Not coming down on you just saying look at the big picture and if you (or anyone else ) beleive in the theory behind this, than follow it and put it to use for an extend peorid of time. Looking a few days worth of results is worthless and will only confuse you. It's a grind, peorid. To me it's all about getting great prices and I know I have some top-notch numbers and winning or losing bets don't really matter short term.
Hope I helped you. Sorry it was so long.
I am looking for lines at their apex or close to it. I don't really care if it is bet with so called smart money (which does lose) or public money. Just looking for prices that are far off their set solid opening type numbers.
With that being said let me say another thing it will take HUNDREDS and HUNDREDS of plays to show an edge (IMO). Last week for example I put almost 150 units in to play and was getting CRUSHED monday and tuesday (down almost 15 units) and I ended up with such a great weekend, and finished overall +22.2 units for the week.
I cannot stress enough (and I am sure you know this) that all I am trying to do is put my money/bets into play so many times that eventually the luck portion gets smaller and smaller and I beleive that happens with great prices.
Now I am not some huge gambler or addict but I do beleive in betting a very small pct of bankroll, lots and lots of times and GRINDING out a profit. This is not for the faint of heart but the bets are so small compared to the bankroll for me that I very rarely pay much attention to any of the games. Some players don't like this approach but I have found this works best for me.
These past few days have not been anything to write home about (I have actually lost close to 10 units, must be the whole "posting jinx thing") but HOPEFULLY eventually my edge will come into play with such great numbers. I beleive that is how you win in baseball, getting a legit +120 dog for +138. Do that enough times and bingo.
As for the totals and runlines. I figure prices are prices.I seen this idea work so well with sides that I figured with bigger guidelines than it has to be as effective with totals.
In July I had 2 losing weeks (small but losing weeks) doing this but when I hit big, I hit big. So to answer your question I think the only way to look at this (or anything else for that matter) is to look and play it for close to a thousand plays. In fact my number #1 piece of gambling advice pertains to this idea and that is " when gambling be expecting HUGE flucuations in your bankroll" if you cannot handle it than don't bet.
Not coming down on you just saying look at the big picture and if you (or anyone else ) beleive in the theory behind this, than follow it and put it to use for an extend peorid of time. Looking a few days worth of results is worthless and will only confuse you. It's a grind, peorid. To me it's all about getting great prices and I know I have some top-notch numbers and winning or losing bets don't really matter short term.
Hope I helped you. Sorry it was so long.
I do not follow RL or totals; I have a hard enough time following the ML. Also, I only want to spend 3 hours or so per day, so I miss many bets. Iceman must have a lot of time and great stamina! Luckily I missed the steam on SF! I bet Fla at -103, Ariz at -102, Bos at -124, and Hou at +135. I am always very happy with a ROI of 3-4%. No one has a documented record of 55% on all releases! Also, most of the monitors actually overstate the % of services (that's for another thread!). Most pointspreads are decided by "lucky" events that could not be predicted. One season I hit 65%+% in college and pro football, but that doesn't happen often.
Dave Cokin's sun nite plays have hit 61.7 % for 6 years! Thats by far the best I have seen recently (20 years is "recent" to me!). I used to spend 8 hours+ per day handicapping, and bet from 3 -10 games a week. Today, I bet 7-13 games a day!(for MUCH smaller amounts). Conditions have changed; handicapping line moves is more profitable than handicapping teams!
Dave Cokin's sun nite plays have hit 61.7 % for 6 years! Thats by far the best I have seen recently (20 years is "recent" to me!). I used to spend 8 hours+ per day handicapping, and bet from 3 -10 games a week. Today, I bet 7-13 games a day!(for MUCH smaller amounts). Conditions have changed; handicapping line moves is more profitable than handicapping teams!
OS, you are 100% right, given the right circumstances. People who play hundreds of games can only produce at best about a 3% or 4% ROI. That is a fact that I don't believe anyone can argue with.
But, if one is patient and only plays maybe 8 to 10 plays a month and only plays the best plays they can find a much higher ROI is not only possible, but should be expected.
The guy that trained me many moons ago only played college basketball. A good year for him was something like 250 winners and 220 losers. He only looked to be up maybe 10 or 12 units for the season. A small ROI was great for him.
I play much different. It is entirely possible for you and I to have the same positive dollar amounts at the end of the month, with the only difference being the ROI. I learned a long time ago that there is no better winning percentage than 1-0. I can turn that around and say there is no worse losing percentage than 0-1.
So when I talk about a ROI of 35%, please keep in mind that I'm looking at a whole different set of numbers. If someone plays enough games and has a ROI of 3%, they can make as much money as I do at 35%. Simple math....
I do have a question. As I'm researching this data I've run into a bit of a problem. The SF game today had Schmidt with an ERA of 6.00 while Armas had an ERA of 6.60. This would mean that Schmidt was the better pitcher. But the WHIP advantage belonged to Armas with 1.20, while Schmidt had 1.78. I will assume that you prefer the WHIP.
My wife, Mama Bird, actually has something she calls AHWG (Average Hits, Walks per 9 innings). We get this from the Dallas Morning News. They do not have WHIP in the paper and I don't know where to go and get the past results that include the WHIP, but Mama Bird tells me that the WHIP is nothing more than AWHG divided by 9. For example, the AWHG for Schmidt is 16.0. If we divide that by 9, we get 1.78, which was his WHIP.
With the above explained, again, I will assume that you're looking at the better pitcher being determined by the WHIP or AWHG. Is that correct? Once I get that answer, I can start summing up the data.
GLTA,
Eagle
But, if one is patient and only plays maybe 8 to 10 plays a month and only plays the best plays they can find a much higher ROI is not only possible, but should be expected.
The guy that trained me many moons ago only played college basketball. A good year for him was something like 250 winners and 220 losers. He only looked to be up maybe 10 or 12 units for the season. A small ROI was great for him.
I play much different. It is entirely possible for you and I to have the same positive dollar amounts at the end of the month, with the only difference being the ROI. I learned a long time ago that there is no better winning percentage than 1-0. I can turn that around and say there is no worse losing percentage than 0-1.
So when I talk about a ROI of 35%, please keep in mind that I'm looking at a whole different set of numbers. If someone plays enough games and has a ROI of 3%, they can make as much money as I do at 35%. Simple math....
I do have a question. As I'm researching this data I've run into a bit of a problem. The SF game today had Schmidt with an ERA of 6.00 while Armas had an ERA of 6.60. This would mean that Schmidt was the better pitcher. But the WHIP advantage belonged to Armas with 1.20, while Schmidt had 1.78. I will assume that you prefer the WHIP.
My wife, Mama Bird, actually has something she calls AHWG (Average Hits, Walks per 9 innings). We get this from the Dallas Morning News. They do not have WHIP in the paper and I don't know where to go and get the past results that include the WHIP, but Mama Bird tells me that the WHIP is nothing more than AWHG divided by 9. For example, the AWHG for Schmidt is 16.0. If we divide that by 9, we get 1.78, which was his WHIP.
With the above explained, again, I will assume that you're looking at the better pitcher being determined by the WHIP or AWHG. Is that correct? Once I get that answer, I can start summing up the data.
GLTA,
Eagle
Schmidt is a much better pitcher than Armas. Schmidt's Sagarin rating is #2, 2.7, his season-long WHIP is 1.19, and his 3 game WHIP is 1.78. Armas' Sagarin rating was #63, 3.7, his season-long WHIP 1.37, and his 3 game WHIP was 1.20. I don't look much at the 3 game WHIP.
As I said, I used to bet 3-10 bets a week for more money, but I no longer feel that it's possible to be that selective and make money. Look at the monitored results of sports services. Even the services who are selective do not hit 55%! I think its key to capitalize on the volatility of lines. Shopping and timing are yielding me more profit than any handicapping that I have seen lately. Do you really think you can hit a constant 60%+ month after month? I have seen no evidence that anyone can!
As I said, I used to bet 3-10 bets a week for more money, but I no longer feel that it's possible to be that selective and make money. Look at the monitored results of sports services. Even the services who are selective do not hit 55%! I think its key to capitalize on the volatility of lines. Shopping and timing are yielding me more profit than any handicapping that I have seen lately. Do you really think you can hit a constant 60%+ month after month? I have seen no evidence that anyone can!
guys, i just read thios whole thread and found it to ber very accurate and informative. My credentials are a start time of hoops seson in 1975, playing the three majors year round, and experience on both sides of the coin. I agree with the "steam" theory of going with in foots and hoops and against in bases. I have always noticed though in college foots and hoops that games later in the day(such as 2:30 pm central time or later) that are moving a half point at a time four or more times have usually been successful fades in my experience. Does anone have an opinion on this scenario? I always felt that this was caused by the public hitting them a little at a time based on "touts" recommendation, being public teams, and especially when public teams were going down more than "normal" early in the day. These are a lot of the time the kind of team that a "chaser" will try to bail out on.
As for the for the original premise of the thread put forth by Iceman and seconded by Old School, right on and great catch. Thanks for sharing it with everyone. If I can come up with any worthwhile additions to this theory, I will get them to you all for sure!
As for the for the original premise of the thread put forth by Iceman and seconded by Old School, right on and great catch. Thanks for sharing it with everyone. If I can come up with any worthwhile additions to this theory, I will get them to you all for sure!
OS, Mama Bird tracks almost 100% of our data. She is much better at it than I. As far as the Sagarin ratings, our numbers are very close as she had Schmidt rated #4 in her top 50 rating and Armas didn't even make her top 50 list. The numbers that I posted were from the last 3 games. MB list the last 3 from pitchers and then lists the last 5, 10, and 15 games for the home team and road team as well as the last 10, 20 and 30 games overall.
OS, you and I are actually on the same page. I agree 100% that someone that plays tons of games can't hit much over 55%. It just doesn't happen. You stated that you use to play 3-10 top games a week. That is still more games than I play in a month. I might find 2 games a week, if I'm lucky. Anything more than that I consider it gambling and I don't like to gamble. So yes, I do expect to hit a much higer number. If I played more than that, I could NEVER hit a percentage above 55%. It just can't happen. But I've learned to train myself to be extremely patient. I do not play like everyone else and I never will.
Hey, I appreciate your help. As I go through the data search, I expect to find something that produces about 55% of the time. What I want to do is to break it down to something that might produce maybe 25 games a baseball season and each of those games has a probability of maybe 75% winning. I'll be very happy if we can find that.......
GLTA,
Eagle
OS, you and I are actually on the same page. I agree 100% that someone that plays tons of games can't hit much over 55%. It just doesn't happen. You stated that you use to play 3-10 top games a week. That is still more games than I play in a month. I might find 2 games a week, if I'm lucky. Anything more than that I consider it gambling and I don't like to gamble. So yes, I do expect to hit a much higer number. If I played more than that, I could NEVER hit a percentage above 55%. It just can't happen. But I've learned to train myself to be extremely patient. I do not play like everyone else and I never will.
Hey, I appreciate your help. As I go through the data search, I expect to find something that produces about 55% of the time. What I want to do is to break it down to something that might produce maybe 25 games a baseball season and each of those games has a probability of maybe 75% winning. I'll be very happy if we can find that.......
GLTA,
Eagle
Hello Docslep, Eagle here. I've been working all day to find trends based on the criteria given by ICE and OS. I've been having some trouble and I am beginning to think that the trouble may be in the way that I've been gathering data.
I just saw your post and I'm curious as to where and why type of questions.
First, you suggest that Cincinnati is a play. OK, please help me here. I am looking at the Pinnacle data. If I understand correctly, OS suggest the use of Pinnacle. It shows the opening line as Cincinnati -126. I do believe that OS suggested waiting until midnight to get the actual line to work with. The first line that I see at Pinnacle around that time was -124 and that was posted at 12:16:02 am.
If the above numbers are correct, then we would look at the better pitcher. I show the WHIP actually being a bit worse on Milton over his last 3 games as his WHIP is 1.258 while Maddux has a 1.211 over his last 3 games.
OK, again, if I remember correctly, OS doesn't look at the last 3 games, so another look shows that Maddux has a yearly WHIP slightly worse by a few hundreths of a point at 1.298, while Milton has a 1.267.
Let's say that Cincinnati is to be the play and that the line from Pinnacle is to be used, that would mean that the midnight line on Cincinnati would be -124.
OK, we need to look at a movement of 10% or 12.4. My guess is that we round off to a movement of 12. That would mean that the Cincinnati line should move down to -112.
A look at the numbers now show Cincinnati at -106, well within the strike price.
I am just finishing up the other games....
Could you please confirm my analysis for the above game.
GLTA,
Eagle
I just saw your post and I'm curious as to where and why type of questions.
First, you suggest that Cincinnati is a play. OK, please help me here. I am looking at the Pinnacle data. If I understand correctly, OS suggest the use of Pinnacle. It shows the opening line as Cincinnati -126. I do believe that OS suggested waiting until midnight to get the actual line to work with. The first line that I see at Pinnacle around that time was -124 and that was posted at 12:16:02 am.
If the above numbers are correct, then we would look at the better pitcher. I show the WHIP actually being a bit worse on Milton over his last 3 games as his WHIP is 1.258 while Maddux has a 1.211 over his last 3 games.
OK, again, if I remember correctly, OS doesn't look at the last 3 games, so another look shows that Maddux has a yearly WHIP slightly worse by a few hundreths of a point at 1.298, while Milton has a 1.267.
Let's say that Cincinnati is to be the play and that the line from Pinnacle is to be used, that would mean that the midnight line on Cincinnati would be -124.
OK, we need to look at a movement of 10% or 12.4. My guess is that we round off to a movement of 12. That would mean that the Cincinnati line should move down to -112.
A look at the numbers now show Cincinnati at -106, well within the strike price.
I am just finishing up the other games....
Could you please confirm my analysis for the above game.
GLTA,
Eagle
First of all congratulations to you Iceman for a gr8 week. I have quickly read your thread and it is truely fascinating..You have brought attention to another aspect of line movements..I wish you all the success in the future......
I wish you all a safe and blessed evening and a profitable one......
majid
I wish you all a safe and blessed evening and a profitable one......
majid
Iceman, How long have you been using these plays and do you have any numbers (i.e.: 25-19 +$300) that you can pass along. I am researching this from our database for part of 2006 and 2005 and so far it isn't looking too good.
I will say that I have found one thing that I was doing wrong, and I'm going back and making those changes now, but I did kind of want some idea of what to expect.
GLTA,
Eagle
I will say that I have found one thing that I was doing wrong, and I'm going back and making those changes now, but I did kind of want some idea of what to expect.
GLTA,
Eagle
Eagle-
12:00 midnite opening numbers are what he uses and than it must move 10% or more for a play.
As far as the whole whip thing it is something OS has added to it kind of like another filter, esp on dog plays with another system he likes to use for a poster over at Fezziksplace.
Overall I would say just running the data from 10% line movements off of Pinny midnite lines is sufficient enough. I wouldn't worry too much about about the whole whip thing like I said it is something OS likes to use when he is more in the whole handicapping of the games not so much with line movement.
He can verify this hopefully. I am real excitited about any info you have. Like I have said earlier I don't expect this too be some "off the wall" results but more of a nice steady profit and a lot of plays. That is what I am looking for. The results were unreal most of July.
Hopefully after you are finished with this. We can get into hoops and beating the closing line by a point or more(sides) and beating the totals by 1.5 points. This is too me is by FAR the biggest money making consistent thing I have seen in all of sports wagering (esp college hoops). It's basically following steam but I hit close to 57% in 2 months and over 600 plays last year. It was a steady grind of winners. I have developed tricks on how to forecast line movement in hoops.
12:00 midnite opening numbers are what he uses and than it must move 10% or more for a play.
As far as the whole whip thing it is something OS has added to it kind of like another filter, esp on dog plays with another system he likes to use for a poster over at Fezziksplace.
Overall I would say just running the data from 10% line movements off of Pinny midnite lines is sufficient enough. I wouldn't worry too much about about the whole whip thing like I said it is something OS likes to use when he is more in the whole handicapping of the games not so much with line movement.
He can verify this hopefully. I am real excitited about any info you have. Like I have said earlier I don't expect this too be some "off the wall" results but more of a nice steady profit and a lot of plays. That is what I am looking for. The results were unreal most of July.
Hopefully after you are finished with this. We can get into hoops and beating the closing line by a point or more(sides) and beating the totals by 1.5 points. This is too me is by FAR the biggest money making consistent thing I have seen in all of sports wagering (esp college hoops). It's basically following steam but I hit close to 57% in 2 months and over 600 plays last year. It was a steady grind of winners. I have developed tricks on how to forecast line movement in hoops.
