I Have Decided to Share An Opening Line Numbers Trend System

[fremen]

bump

 

[WinningWand]

What a great read. I think Dribble had some valid points in looking at the numbers deeper.


It does make sense that the oddsmakers only have limited number to choose games therefore creating trends within their numbers. LOVE THIS!!!


Thanks Kojack.

 

[cains]

Very interesting in deed... Been looking through this for this season, after reading this... I picked out 5 different bookies.. And the avr. line is the final number i come up with.. Following lines has a small pattern so far..

-1 = favorite cover 4 out of 4
-2,5 = dog wins 4 out of 4
-4 = dog wins 3 out of 4
-7 = favorite covers 5 out of 8 (wins 2out of 8 but dont cover)
-10 to -13= favorite covers 6 out 8 (2 times they didnt was with -10,5)

With totals there is not so much yet but:

42 = 5 out of 6 is OVER
43,5 to 49,5 = 9 out of 12 is UNDER

Does that fit in with any games this week???

-2,5 = Rams --> Packers WIN
-4 = Broncos --> Ravens WIN
-17 = Colts --> Colts WIN

Titans vs Colts, Redskins vs Giants, Rams vs Packers. If stats is correct 2 of those is UNDER games

 

[Kojak]

How about that 34 total I told everyone about regarding going over. Bears already have 20 on board and in scoring territory again!

 

[Kojak]

Bears now at 27 pts tonight!

 

[ct2582]

This is great info.

I will be keeping a close eye on this.

Thanks, Kojak

 

[Kojak]

ct,
This 34 open has not only been money on over for game but money for 1st half as well as everyone has nearly covered number by half! Balt/Den same opening total number so I am smashing it as well! BOL

 

[8ate]

nice work koj

gl

:howdy:

 

[ct2582]

I'm rolling with you, buddy.

Let's cash.

 

[ct2582]

I'm on Jacksonville big, too, according to the stats you laid out, in addition to DRM's, 'teams before the bye' post.

Thinking about the over in the Phil/Dal game, based on your stats, but definitely on the 1H over, and Over for the game in tonight's Bal/Den matchup.

Although, the line has jumped, and Bal is now getting more points?

Any concerns?

 

[Kojak]

thanks guys.

Also wanted to note another early game number trend on the opening 11 pt favorite as 5 of 6 had covered towards favorite. Bears open -11, 27-0 at half. Also, 3 pt favorite trend going right way as well as Pack covering vs Rams. Tell me there is not something to it. Worst thing is I have Bills and Rams though huge on that over.

 

[Kojak]

Not worried at all on Ravens. Remember lw Cincy opened at 4.5 and jumped up to like 6 or 6.5 and Pats win by 25, Dummy move imo like last week.

 

[ct2582]

Another thing to note is that so far the Under Ind/Ten 47.5 is looking good, too.

There definitely is something to this system.

 

[Kojak]

I missed that one. Also, one I did not note earlier this week was opening line of 2 which has been dog line. Beware KC backers!

 

[ctdi99]

Kojak!!!!!
49 Er's - 3.5 Over Raider, What Do You Think?????????????

 

[Kojak]

No data so far this year on open 4 but with 4.5 being dog number, my opinion is fav so 49ers. On my own merit, I did not like game. So no info for trend or what I think. Usually very competitive when these 2 get together. Lay off imo.

 

[sparticus]

Kojak/ what's the late plays using system?

Thank you.

 

[Kojak]

Jacksonville is a major play! Small plays on Arizona and Dallas. Based on system.

Bears over =:money8:

 

[sparticus]

Had bears ov 33 thank you.Good Winnings!!

 

[Kojak]

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10-04-2006, 04:03 AM <!-- / status icon and date --></TD><TD class=thead style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal" align=right> #10 </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 width=175>Kojak<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_3254375", true); </SCRIPT>
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 9,022


</TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_3254375><!-- icon and title -->

<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Based on numbers that have shown trends so far, the bets would be as follows: * indicates very strong trend

Indy/Tenn under (Based on 47.5 under trend) *
Vikings/Lions over (Based on 37 over) *
Green Bay (Based on 3 Road Favorite) *
Bears (Based on 11 pt Favorite)**
Bears over (Based on 34 over trend)***
Cleveland (Based on 8 pt dog cover)*
Cleveland/Carolina over (Based on 37 over trend)*
Jacksonville (Based on 6.5 Favorite trend)***
Jacksonville under (Based on 38 under trend)*
KC/AZ over (Based on 43 over trend)*
Cowboys/Eagles over (Based on 43 over trend)*
Ravens (Based on 4.5 dog cover and su winner trend)****
Ravens over (Based on 34 over trend)****
Steelers (3 pt dog cover but falls into subset as SD home team)*

Games of these I have bet are Steelers,Ravens over, Ravens,Jacksonville,Bears over, Buffalo (went against trend),STL (went against trend).

I still use my other criteria but when you see my very large plays, everything lined up.

In regards to when I bet the game, depends on line movement, if it moving away from team on trend, I jump on right away. If it is moving in my favor, I will wait till it levels off and then bet it. Hope this helps.
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Early game results using trend
Indy/Tenn under (w)
Bears (w)
Bears over (w)
Vikings over (w)
Cleveland (push)
Packers (push worst case unless to, or win)
Carolina over (loss-had chance to cover)

Packers fumble so push!
4-1-2 for 80%!