Some quick thoughts on the games this week:
Chargers at Chiefs:
Line is -4 most places, see a few -4.5 out there. Total is as low as 53.5 and as high as 54.5.
I expect this game to be right around the line and total, so I don’t see a ton of value either way. I know a lot of solid cappers are on the Chargers, which makes sense to grab the points in what should be a tight match.
I think the Chiefs will win close and we should see some points as the total reflects.
From a DFS perspective, both team spread the ball around about as good as anyone, so grabbing both Mahomes and Herbert is wise. There’s definitely some cheap options that could well exceed their cost to get you a solid lineup around those two. I’d likely avoid all higher cost skill players with the exception of Kelce.
Chargers at Chiefs:
Line is -4 most places, see a few -4.5 out there. Total is as low as 53.5 and as high as 54.5.
I expect this game to be right around the line and total, so I don’t see a ton of value either way. I know a lot of solid cappers are on the Chargers, which makes sense to grab the points in what should be a tight match.
I think the Chiefs will win close and we should see some points as the total reflects.
From a DFS perspective, both team spread the ball around about as good as anyone, so grabbing both Mahomes and Herbert is wise. There’s definitely some cheap options that could well exceed their cost to get you a solid lineup around those two. I’d likely avoid all higher cost skill players with the exception of Kelce.
Miami at Baltimore:
Line appears to be -3.5 with a total of 44.5 across the board.
I have this game grouped somewhat similar to the LAC/KC game, expecting the score to closely align with the line/total with little value either way.
Unlike the LAC/KC game, I’d have more of a lean to the over, but likely not worth a play. I think the Ravens win a tight game and we’ll likely see some decent points.
DFS wise, not loving much here. Edmonds is a sneaky play who is quite affordable and should outproduce his expectations. Ravens rush defense has been quite good the last few years, but I do have some suspicions it’s depreciating a bit. In addition, if the Ravens can pressure Tua, which I think they can, expect a lot of short dump offs to backs, tight ends and Waddle.
I have some minor ownership on Waddle/Bateman, but nothing crazy. I think Jackson will play well, but you are going to pay for that and I’d rather spend elsewhere.
Line appears to be -3.5 with a total of 44.5 across the board.
I have this game grouped somewhat similar to the LAC/KC game, expecting the score to closely align with the line/total with little value either way.
Unlike the LAC/KC game, I’d have more of a lean to the over, but likely not worth a play. I think the Ravens win a tight game and we’ll likely see some decent points.
DFS wise, not loving much here. Edmonds is a sneaky play who is quite affordable and should outproduce his expectations. Ravens rush defense has been quite good the last few years, but I do have some suspicions it’s depreciating a bit. In addition, if the Ravens can pressure Tua, which I think they can, expect a lot of short dump offs to backs, tight ends and Waddle.
I have some minor ownership on Waddle/Bateman, but nothing crazy. I think Jackson will play well, but you are going to pay for that and I’d rather spend elsewhere.
NY Jets at Cleveland:
Line appears to -6.5 just about everywhere with a total in the 39.5/40.0 range.
Unlike the previous two games discussed, this should be an ugly defensive battle. I like the Browns to win, but am expecting it to be right around the total. Similar to the Chargers, I know a lot of solid cappers backing the Jets here, which makes sense to take the points in what should be a low scoring, defensive game.
I have no idea why the Jets are starting Flacco over White, seems like a massive mistake. I’d probably back the Jets with White, but with Flacco in there the aggressive Browns front should feast. The under is worth a solid look as this one might not cross 30.
From a DFS perspective, not a whole lot here. I’m a big Chubb fan, but not loving him here as I expect the Jets to stack the line and force Brissett to beat them through the air. I do like the Browns defense a bunch and they are the D I have the biggest stake in.
Line appears to -6.5 just about everywhere with a total in the 39.5/40.0 range.
Unlike the previous two games discussed, this should be an ugly defensive battle. I like the Browns to win, but am expecting it to be right around the total. Similar to the Chargers, I know a lot of solid cappers backing the Jets here, which makes sense to take the points in what should be a low scoring, defensive game.
I have no idea why the Jets are starting Flacco over White, seems like a massive mistake. I’d probably back the Jets with White, but with Flacco in there the aggressive Browns front should feast. The under is worth a solid look as this one might not cross 30.
From a DFS perspective, not a whole lot here. I’m a big Chubb fan, but not loving him here as I expect the Jets to stack the line and force Brissett to beat them through the air. I do like the Browns defense a bunch and they are the D I have the biggest stake in.
Washington at Detroit:
Line is Lions -1.5 pretty much everywhere, total is as low as 47.5 and as high as 48.5.
I like the Skins here in what I think will be an ugly game. I’m not in love with it though and will be passing on the side. Giving a strong look to the Under.
From a DFS perspective, I’m not in love with anything. I have some modest McLaurin ownership, threw Chark in a couple lineups as a cheap fill in, also have a touch of the Skins D.
Line is Lions -1.5 pretty much everywhere, total is as low as 47.5 and as high as 48.5.
I like the Skins here in what I think will be an ugly game. I’m not in love with it though and will be passing on the side. Giving a strong look to the Under.
From a DFS perspective, I’m not in love with anything. I have some modest McLaurin ownership, threw Chark in a couple lineups as a cheap fill in, also have a touch of the Skins D.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville:
Line is down to -3 Colts with a total of 45/45.5.
I’m already on Jacksonville at +4.5/+170. I like the Jags to win this game a likely win big. I’m not in love with the Colts this year, but they still probably win the division by default with a less than stellar record.
The Jags should take a big step forward this season, which likely won’t result in a big jump in wins, but should improve their record ATS.
From a DFS perspective, I got a spattering of Jags in my lineups with a sneaky play on Jones, who is relatively cheap and can assist with getting some bug guns into your lineup, such as Adams/Kupp. I did throw Taylor in couple smaller lineups in case I completely missed the boat on this one.
Line is down to -3 Colts with a total of 45/45.5.
I’m already on Jacksonville at +4.5/+170. I like the Jags to win this game a likely win big. I’m not in love with the Colts this year, but they still probably win the division by default with a less than stellar record.
The Jags should take a big step forward this season, which likely won’t result in a big jump in wins, but should improve their record ATS.
From a DFS perspective, I got a spattering of Jags in my lineups with a sneaky play on Jones, who is relatively cheap and can assist with getting some bug guns into your lineup, such as Adams/Kupp. I did throw Taylor in couple smaller lineups in case I completely missed the boat on this one.
Tampa at New Orleans:
Line is TB -2.5 with a total 43.5/44
Tampa is banged up and the data/history certainly seems to mainly point the Saints here. I have a strange feeling Tampa rolls them. Just a feeling, nothing worth putting any money behind. I’m avoiding this one all around.
From a DFS perspective, I’m also widely avoiding this one as well. There could be some value on a TB WR other than Evans, just not sure who is suiting up just yet. I did M Thomas in a couple smaller lineups as well.
Line is TB -2.5 with a total 43.5/44
Tampa is banged up and the data/history certainly seems to mainly point the Saints here. I have a strange feeling Tampa rolls them. Just a feeling, nothing worth putting any money behind. I’m avoiding this one all around.
From a DFS perspective, I’m also widely avoiding this one as well. There could be some value on a TB WR other than Evans, just not sure who is suiting up just yet. I did M Thomas in a couple smaller lineups as well.
