Had this news been a deal with a hospital chain we would have seen this up a dime ..easy..great news but sorta hard to read the value given the info.
IDK but I'm starting to feel like one day in the near future we'll wake up and this will be sold...this is the point you see a company snapped up by a big fish...I have a IRA buy to make and have been waiting out a financing... so far a bad call.
I hear ya. I added in the high 30's but kept some powder dry in case of a financing that caused the price to retreat (as has happened in the past). I doubt we'll see the 30s again. Perhaps not even the 40's, with a financing. The story is starting to gel, just not widely disseminated...yet.
after the 1000 post you'll have the option..only good for 7 days on the redact...
I guess there are 3 reasons why they didn't consummate a financing in the 50's. 1) Nobody offered money at that level. 2) Spectral got greedy and thought they could get a better deal after the VA hospital news. 3) There's some other 'miraculous' development about to happen. The first one seems most likely, the second one is possible but not really considering how little cash they have left, and the third one I labeled as miraculous for a reason.
another thing....That 10% of Dialco idea has been out there for so long. The problem is our entire market cap right now is only 90mm. If I was some uber wealthy dude, I definitely wouldn't buy 10% of Dialco when I could get 10% of the whole enchilada for much less. Don't get me wrong I'd love to see Dialco get a fair valuation but it just seems impossible with our share price at these levels and falling. I hope they have a plan we don't know about. Looking like the IRA buy is about due.
It would be very difficult for a new party to acquire 10% of the whole enchilada without driving up the price substantially. Holders of large positions are likely pretty entrenched and have a minimum expectation after a long hold. Again, if you thought the probability of success was greater than 90% for one or both parts, it might be smart to acquire at least a small percentage at a substantial discount to the price when there is a bow on it.
I see your point. In any event, a spinout seems almost inevitable, unless there is a buyer for the whole thing (who might then spinout Dialco). I expect that ultimately two different buyers is the most likely end result.
Any announcement of such an event would cause a MAJOR & instant revaluation of Spectral, especially if Dialco is deemed to be worth $ 1B or more (by an eqty partner) -even if the buy-in valuation was at a substantial discount to it's ultimate or true value.
Not sure what the downside of that is to Spectral shareholders?
The issue I guess is that no such deal is close, that we know of, necessitating a straight eqty raise (that creates more dilution).
Any announcement of such an event would cause a MAJOR & instant revaluation of Spectral, especially if Dialco is deemed to be worth $ 1B or more (by an eqty partner) -even if the buy-in valuation was at a substantial discount to it's ultimate or true value.
Not sure what the downside of that is to Spectral shareholders?
The issue I guess is that no such deal is close, that we know of, necessitating a straight eqty raise (that creates more dilution).
sorta interesting ...
I went back through the 2Q filing to see how close we are to being broke. From what I see as of June 30 we had just under 3.5mill. The burn is over 1mill a month- so we could be close to our last million. I imagine they are going to announce a finance next week but it gets more and more curious (and I imagine worrisome if they don’t)
A couple other notable bits of info:
It seems odd/ interesting to me is they spent 1.3mill on salaries in 3 mos (April,May,June 2022) but during that same period they// spent almost as much- just over a million on "Consulting and Professional fees". It’s almost double the fees of the same period 2021.
Maybe that is connected with the ARC and VA deals? but a pretty hefty increase/ rate that would end up being 4million a year for a Co that runs on around 11million… Whatever it is- it says to me that there is a lot going on behind the scenes.
PSUs- Selo and Kellum lose a ton of money if they don’t deliver by PMX by this time next year! While DIMI is a 2024 goal.
PMX MILESTONE Each of the CEO and CMO were granted PSUs which will vest immediately if FDA approval for PMX is achieved by certain dates (the “PMX Milestone”) and shall be payable in Shares as follows:
(i) 2,500,000 Shares if the PMX Milestone is achieved before June 30, 2023;
(ii) 1,875,000 Shares if the PMX Milestone is achieved on or after June 30, 2023 and before September 30, 2023;
(iii) 1,500,000 Shares if the PMX Milestone is achieved on or after September 30, 2023 and before December 31, 2023;
(iv) 750,000 Shares if the PMX Milestone is achieved on or after December 31, 2023 and before January 31, 2024. The PSUs will terminate and cease to have any effect with no payout in Shares if the PMX Milestone is not achieved by January 31, 2024.
DIMI MILESTONE Each of the CEO and CMO were granted PSUs which shall vest immediately if FDA approval for in-home use of DIMI is achieved by certain dates (the “DIMI Milestone”) and shall be payable in Shares as follows:
(i) 750,000 Shares if the DIMI Milestone is achieved before June 30, 2024;
(ii) 500,000 Shares if the DIMI Milestone is achieved on or after June 30, 2024 and before September 30, 2024;
(iii) 250,000 Shares if the DIMI Milestone is achieved on or after September 30, 2024 and before October 31, 2024.
The PSUs will terminate and cease to have any effect with no payout in Shares if the DIMI Milestone is not achieved by October 31, 2024.
I went back through the 2Q filing to see how close we are to being broke. From what I see as of June 30 we had just under 3.5mill. The burn is over 1mill a month- so we could be close to our last million. I imagine they are going to announce a finance next week but it gets more and more curious (and I imagine worrisome if they don’t)
A couple other notable bits of info:
It seems odd/ interesting to me is they spent 1.3mill on salaries in 3 mos (April,May,June 2022) but during that same period they// spent almost as much- just over a million on "Consulting and Professional fees". It’s almost double the fees of the same period 2021.
Maybe that is connected with the ARC and VA deals? but a pretty hefty increase/ rate that would end up being 4million a year for a Co that runs on around 11million… Whatever it is- it says to me that there is a lot going on behind the scenes.
PSUs- Selo and Kellum lose a ton of money if they don’t deliver by PMX by this time next year! While DIMI is a 2024 goal.
PMX MILESTONE Each of the CEO and CMO were granted PSUs which will vest immediately if FDA approval for PMX is achieved by certain dates (the “PMX Milestone”) and shall be payable in Shares as follows:
(i) 2,500,000 Shares if the PMX Milestone is achieved before June 30, 2023;
(ii) 1,875,000 Shares if the PMX Milestone is achieved on or after June 30, 2023 and before September 30, 2023;
(iii) 1,500,000 Shares if the PMX Milestone is achieved on or after September 30, 2023 and before December 31, 2023;
(iv) 750,000 Shares if the PMX Milestone is achieved on or after December 31, 2023 and before January 31, 2024. The PSUs will terminate and cease to have any effect with no payout in Shares if the PMX Milestone is not achieved by January 31, 2024.
DIMI MILESTONE Each of the CEO and CMO were granted PSUs which shall vest immediately if FDA approval for in-home use of DIMI is achieved by certain dates (the “DIMI Milestone”) and shall be payable in Shares as follows:
(i) 750,000 Shares if the DIMI Milestone is achieved before June 30, 2024;
(ii) 500,000 Shares if the DIMI Milestone is achieved on or after June 30, 2024 and before September 30, 2024;
(iii) 250,000 Shares if the DIMI Milestone is achieved on or after September 30, 2024 and before October 31, 2024.
The PSUs will terminate and cease to have any effect with no payout in Shares if the DIMI Milestone is not achieved by October 31, 2024.
Interesting. I think that the VA deal was an iron they had in the fire for several years that was sort of a surprise. My guess is that Amory was instrumental in securing the ARC deal.
I think consultants might have more to do with either a new form of financing (e.g debentures with conversion options) or the execution of a Dialco spin-out strategy. Or it could be a reach out to define potential buyers (pre-FDA conclusion).
I still think Dialco (with DIMI) could be sold well before final full FDA approval (fDIMI home use). But I wonder if Seto and Kellum still get their psu payout. Probably - or easily negotiated with a generous offer.
I think consultants might have more to do with either a new form of financing (e.g debentures with conversion options) or the execution of a Dialco spin-out strategy. Or it could be a reach out to define potential buyers (pre-FDA conclusion).
I still think Dialco (with DIMI) could be sold well before final full FDA approval (fDIMI home use). But I wonder if Seto and Kellum still get their psu payout. Probably - or easily negotiated with a generous offer.
The problem is it only solves half the financing problem but I'm not totally certain. I would think if someone paid 15mm for 10% of Dialco, they would want that money to only be used for Dialco related matters. I don't think anybody would invest in Dialco if the money could be used in things that they have no direct financial interest in such as Tigris. I mean I could be wrong and theoretically part of that direct investment could be peeled off for Tigris, but I have to believe all or most of the funds would be strictly for Dialco. I'd take less to get one of them on board than I would from some unknow group of private investors. We'd fly if it was Davita/Medtronic and to a lessor extent Braun.
I don't know if there is time, but I'd love to see a spinout of Dialco shares to Spectral shareholders. That in an of itself will likely move the share price, and provide for a more efficient raise (i.e less dilution) . Stuff has likely been going on behind the scenes for 6 months or more. Your find on consultants only confirms this.
An equity investment by a major doesn't necessarily have to accompany this. Might take a few months for the split to happen. Then follow-up on pending spin-out with an equity or convertible debt financing at a higher share-price. I would think that pre-spin-out, any cash raised could be allocated in some fashion to both entities. I don't think you necessarily need two separate raises. Just need some creative accounting.
I also wonder when we might see some SAMI revenues, and whether lenders will recognize concrete orders from VA and ARC. AR they will. Order book, I'm not sure.
An equity investment by a major doesn't necessarily have to accompany this. Might take a few months for the split to happen. Then follow-up on pending spin-out with an equity or convertible debt financing at a higher share-price. I would think that pre-spin-out, any cash raised could be allocated in some fashion to both entities. I don't think you necessarily need two separate raises. Just need some creative accounting.
I also wonder when we might see some SAMI revenues, and whether lenders will recognize concrete orders from VA and ARC. AR they will. Order book, I'm not sure.
It's clear that Medtronic/DaVita need something new in order to more effectively compete with Fresenius. Baxter is a big competitor as well, but it's not clear how badly they want to get into the dialysis market...especially now that it looks like a new home equipment market will be opening up over the next decade.
