Denver- Seattle week 1

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Denver will pulverize them...Line -4.5
No one played last night and still... the QB situation in Seattle is bad, they are already hurting in the defensive backfield IDK about Clint Hurtt either.
Might be a 4 win season in Seattle.

I hope I'm wrong but I'll be all over Denver
 
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Everyone will be on Denver. They have a brand new head coach that's never called plays before. You're asking him to win on the road. It's been profitable to bet against new HCs. Russell Wilson is 4-10 SUATS in the first 3 weeks. Pete Carroll is 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS at home the first 3 weeks. Good luck.
 

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Everyone will be on Denver. They have a brand new head coach that's never called plays before. You're asking him to win on the road. It's been profitable to bet against new HCs. Russell Wilson is 4-10 SUATS in the first 3 weeks. Pete Carroll is 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS at home the first 3 weeks. Good luck.
Great stats... thank you.
This is part gut and feeling like Wilson in a return game on Monday Night is worth the 4.5 if not 7.


Can't wait.
 

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Sea Chickens +5 with splash to the over 41.5. It’s MNF and this game is a snoozer really. Need some drama and eyeballs. These MNF games especially double header ones of years past has had some real snooze fest games week 1. Refs may want to work in a few new calls to warm up the ole flag throwing arm. Especially some of these DB tighter call rules. Could benefit offense.

But, coach Pete and the boys will be fired up. More unity and familiarity with Wilson will benefit a bit. Underdog factor at home and fans should be pumped. Lock or Smith I believe can do enough to get some points. Smith probably more upside. Good weapons all around. Walker kid at RB will do some work. Broncos D with New DC and coach bit different scheme and philosophy. Levels 1 and 2 nothing special. Back end has some big talent. No great edge rushing.

Sea chickens gonna have expected weakness o line. Personally don’t think they are that bad. RB’s WR TE plenty of playmakers. QB situation is unknown. Both play is my opinion. And believe it’s beneficial. Both D will have familiarity on lock and Wilson. Big plus. But both QBs know D player tendencies also. Den coach and offense will be more efficient this year, still first game for coach. Adams and Diggs are two players who can give Wilson problems. They have seen him in practice for few years. Also helps having back end help in moving defenses around in situations vs QB. Some quick calls can be made with guys like that. You want high IQ leadership working back to front. They see the field. Aaron Donald can’t correct or predict a tendency to guys behind him. Diggs and Adams May carry a lot of value just in presence here.

Game probably opens up 2nd qtr into 2nd half. Lots hype get feet wet starting game both sides. Seattle playing from behind will be better tempo for lock or smith and the WR. Seahawks will have some success on ground imo with walker penny homer. 3-0 7-0 after 1 would not shock me one bit. Points will trickle in later in game imo.

Denver OC is raw. I’d imagine a split HC/OC play call. Plenty of things should favor low scoring first glance.. Den D perceived really good and Seattle O no good. But not totally the case imo. New HC New OC New QB New System. However, New raw DC. Broncos have a lot of new pieces. Big spotlight for some first given the situation (Wilson trade etc) and prime time. Mistakes will be made here or there. Still believe both teams will be capable of 4 scores. A realistic 2-3 Fg 1-2 TD in 4 scores. A 5th can open up very easily also. 24-20 23-20 sits in the 4 scores range. 4tds be it 3 Den or 2 each should be enough with help of FG’s. If this game was week 11 I’d say a 24-13 27-13 Denver expected.

DK and Fant are going to draw a good bit of attention no matter who the QB is. Both are also capable of working well off 1 on 1 and navigate double. RB and Lockett should produce enough if DK and Fant draw. Den probably cuts Williams loose. Should try and isolate Sutton and open up speed between hash with Jeudy and Hamler. Sea can be had on the outside and edge. Wilson does throw a good deep ball. Den can be had in 2nd level but sea has to stretch Den 3rd level even with speedy decoys Goodwin or Eskridge.

Personally, just don’t see a Den blowout. Back door would worry me a bit also. Too many new pieces Denver also. New QB, New HC, New OC, New DC and all are raw.


Sea +5
Over 41.5
 

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Now that is what we are all looking for. No stats from the last ten years, yada yada. Chris that was one of the best write ups yet.
 

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Sea Chickens +5 with splash to the over 41.5. It’s MNF and this game is a snoozer really. Need some drama and eyeballs. These MNF games especially double header ones of years past has had some real snooze fest games week 1. Refs may want to work in a few new calls to warm up the ole flag throwing arm. Especially some of these DB tighter call rules. Could benefit offense.

But, coach Pete and the boys will be fired up. More unity and familiarity with Wilson will benefit a bit. Underdog factor at home and fans should be pumped. Lock or Smith I believe can do enough to get some points. Smith probably more upside. Good weapons all around. Walker kid at RB will do some work. Broncos D with New DC and coach bit different scheme and philosophy. Levels 1 and 2 nothing special. Back end has some big talent. No great edge rushing.

Sea chickens gonna have expected weakness o line. Personally don’t think they are that bad. RB’s WR TE plenty of playmakers. QB situation is unknown. Both play is my opinion. And believe it’s beneficial. Both D will have familiarity on lock and Wilson. Big plus. But both QBs know D player tendencies also. Den coach and offense will be more efficient this year, still first game for coach. Adams and Diggs are two players who can give Wilson problems. They have seen him in practice for few years. Also helps having back end help in moving defenses around in situations vs QB. Some quick calls can be made with guys like that. You want high IQ leadership working back to front. They see the field. Aaron Donald can’t correct or predict a tendency to guys behind him. Diggs and Adams May carry a lot of value just in presence here.

Game probably opens up 2nd qtr into 2nd half. Lots hype get feet wet starting game both sides. Seattle playing from behind will be better tempo for lock or smith and the WR. Seahawks will have some success on ground imo with walker penny homer. 3-0 7-0 after 1 would not shock me one bit. Points will trickle in later in game imo.

Denver OC is raw. I’d imagine a split HC/OC play call. Plenty of things should favor low scoring first glance.. Den D perceived really good and Seattle O no good. But not totally the case imo. New HC New OC New QB New System. However, New raw DC. Broncos have a lot of new pieces. Big spotlight for some first given the situation (Wilson trade etc) and prime time. Mistakes will be made here or there. Still believe both teams will be capable of 4 scores. A realistic 2-3 Fg 1-2 TD in 4 scores. A 5th can open up very easily also. 24-20 23-20 sits in the 4 scores range. 4tds be it 3 Den or 2 each should be enough with help of FG’s. If this game was week 11 I’d say a 24-13 27-13 Denver expected.

DK and Fant are going to draw a good bit of attention no matter who the QB is. Both are also capable of working well off 1 on 1 and navigate double. RB and Lockett should produce enough if DK and Fant draw. Den probably cuts Williams loose. Should try and isolate Sutton and open up speed between hash with Jeudy and Hamler. Sea can be had on the outside and edge. Wilson does throw a good deep ball. Den can be had in 2nd level but sea has to stretch Den 3rd level even with speedy decoys Goodwin or Eskridge.

Personally, just don’t see a Den blowout. Back door would worry me a bit also. Too many new pieces Denver also. New QB, New HC, New OC, New DC and all are raw.


Sea +5
Over 41.5
great write up..thank you. tons to think about with that.
Thinking Wilson will smoke the hawk defensive backfield, young guys and a new defensive scheme...JMO
 

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great write up..thank you. tons to think about with that.
Thinking Wilson will smoke the hawk defensive backfield, young guys and a new defensive scheme...JMO
Thinking is bad.
 

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Thinking is bad.
Got it big lou,....Very articulate after the write up above.....it's along season you'll have better opportunities to tell me my thinking is bad.
I appreciate the good words and encouragement..lol
 

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Last year in week four a lot of people "thought" Tom Brady was going to roll into New England and smoke his old team.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
BENGALS -7.5 vs. Jaguars
Washington -1 vs. FALCONS
BEARS -3 vs. Lions
Titans -7 vs. NY JETS
Browns -2 vs. VIKINGS
DOLPHINS -2.5 vs. Colts
COWBOYS -4.5 vs. Panthers
SAINTS -7.5 vs. NY Giants
Chiefs -7 vs. EAGLES
BILLS -16.5 vs. Texans
RAMS -4.5 vs. Cardinals
49ERS -3 vs. Seahawks
BRONCOS -1 vs. Ravens
PACKERS -6.5 vs. Steelers
Buccaneers -6.5 vs. PATRIOTS
CHARGERS -3.5 vs. Raiders
Compare to Current NFL Odds
See Who The Public Is Betting in NFL Week 4
TB 615
SEA 578
BAL 519
MIN 502
KC 476
DET 421
LV 417
GB 410
DEN 391
DAL 388
NYJ 373
NYG 354
CAR 354
WAS 353
LAR 347
CLE 317
TOP 5 YTD RECORD
6-9-0
ARI 313
MIA 301
TEN 298
PIT 248
LAC 221
IND 217
NO 211
NE 201
CHI 155
ATL 150
BUF 149
PHI 144
SF 132
HOU 114
CIN 77
JAX 74
RECORD LAST WEEK

4-1
 

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Not sure you can compare a Pete Carol team with another new defensive coordinator and Gino Smith at quarterback to a Belichick coached team with Mac Jones....

Seattle will not cover this...
 

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great write up..thank you. tons to think about with that.
Thinking Wilson will smoke the hawk defensive backfield, young guys and a new defensive scheme...JMO
He very well may. I’d emphasize again the importance Diggs and Adams can play. Having not 1 but 2 on field coaches on back end is very beneficial. And they face him in practice for few years helps in tendencies etc. Russ will have some of their tendencies also though

Now the new offense under hack is more your west coast tree. Russ is not the best of intermediate passing. Which this will be heavy in. Still unsure who calls play consistently with new raw OC. But either is going to operate under the old WC disciples of marrone, kub, shanny etc. Which if anything like up in GB will be heavy primary 1 WR isolation. Now Rodgers and Adams are just on a different level with this. Sutton the bigger body probably fits what they want as P1.

Not an absolute ton the O in general will have to learn. Run game will probably be the duo zone. Basically inside zone gap blocking. Believe Denver was primarily inside zone last year which definitely fits Gordon and Williams skill set. So O line should be fine in that area but pass scheme will be bit different.

Still think it takes Russ and WR core some time to gel in this concept. It’s going to put Russ in a heavy intermediate route area his weakness is Sea. One thing Sea rarely did was throw inter sidelines. And if Sutton is P1 it helps Russ more imo. It’s just going to keep more stuff in front of Sea DBs. Can be good but bad also if not clicking.
 

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Got it big lou,....Very articulate after the write up above.....it's along season you'll have better opportunities to tell me my thinking is bad.
I appreciate the good words and encouragement..lol
Colts have lost every season opener since 2012 or something close. All aboard Texans ML week 1! Lol
 

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One thing I'll say is Wilson called his own plays last year technically , dictated the offense pushed around the OC..disrespected him publicity in a very shrewd sort way ....Whoever the Denver OC is better have a strong will..Wilsons gonna want to dictate the play calls.

Double edged.. Wilson despite the public good guy face is a bit of a monster when it comes to OC's...He'll do what he wants eventually offensively even if it means tearing down another OC...

Biggest reason I doubt Denver long this season are those Wilson relationships with offensive coaches.
 

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Last time the Colts won on opening day was against the Raiders in 2013 so the losing streak began in 2014.

8-88-84-120-40-4L1HPryorOak@IndA. LuckL3R3-06-011-52-1410-6-1121-17W14-100-2-7
 

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Not sure you can compare a Pete Carol team with another new defensive coordinator and Gino Smith at quarterback to a Belichick coached team with Mac Jones....

Seattle will not cover this...
I despise the sea chickens and Pete . But I do believe they have 6-7 win potential. NFC west imo has some big question marks in few areas each team. Sea the worst.

Brady vs Pats last year was also Brady 2nd year with Bucs. Not first game first year Rookie coach Rookie OC. Bit different situation. NE better secondary also. But tendencies were known of Tom played a part. Lots pressure even for the goat going back under the lights. Better O line and weapons for Brady also. Russ won’t be rattled by any means under prime time. But week 1 and New coaches and scheme will throw some wrinkles. Pats also had better and more experienced OC DC guys scheming than sea chickens will have. Better and more experienced O line also which is big vs Sea O line. However, Den level 1 and 2 aren’t great. Believe Bucs were leaking injuries there vs pats. Vita, shaq and either dean or Davis out. Bucs slammed the box forcing jones beat em. Pats did absolutely nothing on ground if o remember correctly.

Sea New DC was in house hire. Tends help with stuff. He is more likely to listen to players if they need adjustments unlike New DC not with team who often get stubborn.

Game should have been scheduled mid season to see Russ with few games under belt. Nothing wrong with thinking. Go with the gut and who ya like or think. I’m by no means pounding table take Sea etc. Just tossing out opinions or info etc. Good discussion in here. Fun stuff GL
 

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"But tendencies were known of Tom played a part."

Who knows the tendencies of Russell Wilson more than Pete Carroll?
 

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Last time the Colts won on opening day was against the Raiders in 2013 so the losing streak began in 2014.

8-88-84-120-40-4L1HPryorOak@IndA. LuckL3R3-06-011-52-1410-6-1121-17W14-100-2-7
They won 21-17 at home vs raiders 2013? Vs Pryor as QB? Lmao that don’t count big Lou! That’s a Loss technically in my book at home vs Pryor lol.
 

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