Jan. 1 thru Jan. 4
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-up
Bowl Season
January 1
Outback Bowl
Arkansas (8-4) @ Penn State (7-5)
— Arkansas won four of its last five games.
— Hogs gave up 37+ points in their four losses.
— Hogs gave up 28 or less points in their wins.
— Arkansas is 3-2-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Arkansas has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Razorbacks have 110 returning starts on offensive line.
— Arkansas has a freshman QB with 13 starts.
— Under Pittman, Arkansas is 11-4 ATS as an underdog.
— Razorbacks are playing in first bowl since 2016.
— Arkansas won three of its last four bowls.
— Hogs’ bowl game vs TCU last year was cancelled.
— Over is 4-2 in last six Arkansas games.
— Penn State lost five of last seven games, after 5-0 start.
— Nittany Lions were held under 110 RY six of last seven games.
— PSU is 1-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Nittany Lions are 2-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Penn State has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Penn State has 47 returning starts on offensive line.
— Penn State has a junior QB, with 34 starts.
— Nittany Lions won three of their last five bowls.
— PSU lost its last two bowls against SEC teams.
— Average total in Penn State’s last four bowls: 76.8.
— In his career, coach Franklin is 5-4 SU in bowl games.
— Five of last six Penn State games stayed under total.
— Underdogs covered last four Outback Bowls.
— Last nine years, SEC teams are 6-3 vs Big 14 in this game.
— Last 10 years, SEC teams are 28-16 SU vs Big 14 teams.
— SEC favorites are 18-16-1 last 35 games vs the Big 14.
Citrus Bowl (@ Orlando)
Iowa (10-3) vs Kentucky (9-3)
— Iowa won four of their last five games.
— Iowa was outscored 93-17 in its three losses.
— Iowa was held under 300 TY in five of last seven games.
— Iowa is 6-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Hawkeyes were minus-5 in turnovers in their losses.
— Iowa is 4-0 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Iowa has 38 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hawkeyes have a soph QB this year, with 20 starts.
— Hawkeyes won last three bowls, scoring 34.3 ppg.
— Over is 4-0 in last four Iowa games.
— Kentucky scored 46 ppg in its last four games.
— Wildcats are 9-3 despite being minus-13 in turnovers.
— Kentucky gave up 30+ points in all three losses.
— Wildcats are 9-0 when they give up less than 30 points.
— Wildcats are 5-2 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Kentucky has 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— Wildcats have 62 returning starts on offensive line.
— Kentucky’s QB has 14 career starts; he transferred from Penn State.
— Wildcats are 12-6 ATS last 18 games as a favorite.
— Kentucky won last three bowls, by total of 12 points.
— Over is 4-1 in last five Kentucky games.
— Favorites are 7-3 ATS in last ten Citrus Bowls.
— Last ten years, SEC is 6-2 SU vs Big 14 teams in this bowl.
— Last 10 years, SEC teams are 28-16 SU vs Big 14 teams.
— SEC favorites are 18-16-1 last 35 games vs the Big 14.
Fiesta Bowl (@ Phoenix)
Notre Dame (11-1) vs Oklahoma State (11-2)
— First game as HC for 35-year old Freeman, who was DC.
— Offensive coordinator stayed, so offense should be OK.
— Notre Dame scored 31+ points in their last seven games.
— ND won/covered its last seven games.
— Notre Dame’s only loss was 24-13 at home to unbeaten Cincinnati.
— Irish is 6-2 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Notre Dame has 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Notre Dame has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Notre Dame has senior QB with 32 starts.
— Notre Dame lost three of its last five bowls.
— Irish (+6.5) lost 44-28 to Ohio State in 2015 Fiesta Bowl.
— Three of last four Notre Dame games stayed under total.
— Oklahoma State lost Big X title game 21-16 to Baylor.
— OSU won five of its last six games
— OSU is 8-1-1 ATS in its last ten games.
— Cowboys were held to 21-16 points in their losses.
— State is 9-0 if they allow 23 or fewer points.
— OSU is 6-1-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Cowboys have 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— OSU has 103 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cowboys’ soph QB has started 30 games.
— Oklahoma State won four of its last five bowls.
— Cowboys were an underdog in three of those five games.
— Coach Gundy is 10-5 SU in bowls.
— Six of last nine OSU games stayed under total.
— Favorites won/covered four of last five Fiesta Bowls.
— Oklahoma State won this bowl in OT ten years ago.
Rose Bowl (@ Pasadena)
Utah (10-3) vs Ohio State (10-1)
— Utah won six in a row, nine of last ten games.
— Utes beat Oregon 38-10 in Pac-12 title game.
— Utes scored 39.7 ppg in their last six games.
— Utes gave up 219-204-260 YR in their three losses.
— Utah is 15-6 ATS in last 21 games as an underdog.
— All ten Utah wins are by 9+ points.
— Utah has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Utes have 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Utah has soph quarterback with 12 starts.
— Utah ran ball for 200+ yards in four of last six games.
— Utes lost their last two bowls, 31-20/38-10.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight Utah games.
— Ohio State won nine of its last ten games (6-3 ATS last nine)
— Seven of those nine wins were by 21+ points.
— Buckeyes threw for 300+ yards in last nine games.
— Ohio State gave up 35-42 points in its two losses.
— Last nine games, Buckeyes are +10 in turnovers.
— Buckeyes have 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— OSU has 37 returning starts on offensive line.
— Ohio State’s QB has 12 career starts.
— Coach Day is 20-10-1 ATS as a favorite.
— Buckeyes split their last six bowls.
— Ohio State won its last three Rose Bowls.
— Over is 5-3 in Ohio State’s last eight games.
— Underdogs covered four of last five Rose Bowls.
— Pac-12 teams are 6-2 SU in their last eight Rose Bowls.
— Big 14 teams are 21-16 SU last 37 games vs Pac-12 squads.
— Big 14 favorites are 8-10 ATS last 18 games vs Pac-12 squads.
Sugar Bowl (@ New Orleans)
Baylor (11-2) vs Ole Miss (10-2)
— Baylor was 2-7 last year; big turnaround this season.
— Bears won title game, 21-16 over Oklahoma State
— Baylor won last four games, giving up 16 ppg
— Baylor is 4-1 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Bears are +10 in turnovers this season.
— Baylor allowed 200+ rushing yards six of last nine games.
— Baylor is 7-2 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Bears have 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Baylor has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Bears have a soph QB this year, with 13 starts.
— Baylor won three of its last four bowls.
— Bears (+4.5) lost this bowl 26-14 to Georgia two years ago.
— Under is 5-1 in last six Baylor games.
— Ole Miss won four in row, seven of last eight games.
— Rebels allowed 200+ rushing yards in six of last nine games.
— Ole Miss gave up 42-31 points in its two losses (Bama/Auburn)
— Rebels’ last five wins were all by 10+ points.
— Ole Miss is 6-2 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Rebels have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Ole Miss has 64 returning starts on offensive line.
— Rebels’ soph QB has started 27 games.
— Ole Miss won four of its last five bowls.
— In his career, Kiffin is 2-2 SU in bowl games.
— Last seven Rebel games stayed under the total
— Favorites won/covered four of last six Sugar Bowls.
— Last nine years, SEC teams are 3-5 SU in this bowl.
— SEC teams are 21-15 SU in last 36 games vs Big X opponents.
— Last six years, Big X underdogs are 9-6 ATS vs SEC teams.
January 4
Texas Bowl (@ Houston)
LSU (6-6) vs Kansas State (7-5)
— Interim coach for this game; Kelly will be observing.
— LSU won its last two games to become bowl eligible.
— Tigers’ QB transferred to Texas A&M; backup threw 55 passes.
— LSU held last four opponents to 311 or fewer TY.
— Tigers are 6-1 if they score 27+ points, 0-5 if they don’t.
— LSU has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Tigers have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
— LSU’s junior QB has made 16 starts.
— Tigers are 13-4-1 ATS last 18 games as underdogs.
— LSU won its last three bowls, scoring 48.3 ppg.
— Under is 4-1 in last five LSU games.
— K-State is 7-1 scoring 24+ points, 0-4 when it doesn’t.
— Wildcats were held under 300 TY in last three games.
— K-State is 6-2 when it gains 300+ TY, 1-3 when it doesn’t.
— Wildcats threw for 65 yards in last game, a 22-17 loss to Texas.
— K-State is 2-4-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— K-State has 53 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wildcats have senior QB with 37 career starts.
— K-State lost three of its last five bowls.
— Wildcats (+3) won this bowl 33-28 five years ago.
— Four of last five K-State games stayed under.
— Underdogs covered last three Texas Bowls.
— Last 10 years, Big X teams are 5-3 ATS in Texas Bowls.
— SEC teams are 21-15 SU in last 36 games vs Big X opponents.