NHL
Tuesday, February 14
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Trend Report
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Chicago @ Montreal
Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
Carolina @ Washington
Carolina
Carolina is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
New Jersey @ Columbus
New Jersey
New Jersey is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Columbus
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 6 games when playing Columbus
Columbus
Columbus is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Columbus's last 6 games when playing New Jersey
Ottawa @ NY Islanders
Ottawa
Ottawa is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
NY Islanders is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa
Florida @ St. Louis
Florida
Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing Florida
Seattle @ Winnipeg
Seattle
Seattle is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
Boston @ Dallas
Boston
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 10 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
Tampa Bay @ Colorado
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Colorado
Colorado
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh @ San Jose
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing on the road against San Jose
Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
San Jose
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Jose's last 8 games at home
San Jose is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
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Tuesday, February 14
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Trend Report
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Chicago @ Montreal
Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
Carolina @ Washington
Carolina
Carolina is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
New Jersey @ Columbus
New Jersey
New Jersey is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Columbus
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 6 games when playing Columbus
Columbus
Columbus is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Columbus's last 6 games when playing New Jersey
Ottawa @ NY Islanders
Ottawa
Ottawa is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
NY Islanders is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa
Florida @ St. Louis
Florida
Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing Florida
Seattle @ Winnipeg
Seattle
Seattle is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
Boston @ Dallas
Boston
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 10 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
Tampa Bay @ Colorado
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Colorado
Colorado
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh @ San Jose
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing on the road against San Jose
Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
San Jose
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Jose's last 8 games at home
San Jose is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
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TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 14
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at MON | 07:00 PM | CHI +120 U 6.0 | +500 +500 |
| CAR at WAS | 07:00 PM | CAR -165 O 5.5 | +500 +500 |
| NJ at CLB | 07:30 PM | NJ -220 U 6.5 | +500 +500 |
| OTT at NYI | 07:30 PM | NYI -200 O 6.0 | +500 +500 |
| FLA at STL | 08:00 PM | FLA -135 O 6.5 | +500 +500 |
| SEA at WIN | 08:00 PM | SEA +125 O 6.0 | +500 +500 |
| BOS at DAL | 08:30 PM | DAL +100 O 5.5 | +500 +500 |
| TB at COL | 09:00 PM | TB -120 O 6.0 | +500 +500 |
| PIT at SJ | 10:30 PM | SJ +145 O 6.5 | +500 +500 |
Completed Picks
Past Completed Picks| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/14/2023 | 7-11-0 | 38.89% | -2925 | Detail |
| 02/13/2023 | 6-3-1 | 65.00% | +2100 | Detail |
| 02/12/2023 | 3-5-0 | 37.50% | -1825 | Detail |
| 02/11/2023 | 15-13-0 | 53.57% | -160 | Detail |
| 02/10/2023 | 2-6-0 | 25.00% | -2150 | Detail |
| 02/09/2023 | 7-6-1 | 53.57% | -400 | Detail |
| 02/08/2023 | 1-3-0 | 25.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 02/07/2023 | 6-5-1 | 54.17% | +650 | Detail |
| 02/06/2023 | 6-5-0 | 54.55% | +800 | Detail |
| 02/01/2023 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +1000 | Detail |
Armadillo Sports
Wednesday’s 6-pack
College hoops teams who take the highest %age of 3-point shots:
51.8% of their shots are 3’s— Chattanooga
48.9%— San Francisco
48.2%— Penn State
48.1%— Villanova
47.5%— Cornell
47.5%— Southern Illinois
Quote of the Day
“I believe creativity is an inherent part of everyone, so never worry about failure. It’s going to happen, but that’s OK. Go ahead, take chances, and you might just find that what feels like failure isn’t failure at all, it’s what inspires you to dream even bigger.”
Kermit the Frog
Wednesday’s quiz
Before they moved to Oakland in 1968, Oakland A’s called two other cities home; which two cities?
Tuesday’s quiz
The NBA absorbed four teams from the ABA when the ABA folded after the 1975-76 season; Spurs, Nuggets, Pacers, Nets.
Monday’s quiz
Donovan McNabb was the Eagles’ QB the first time Andy Reid coached in a Super Bowl.
**************************
Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..
— While writing this tonight, I’ve been watching the movie Uncut Gems; I’ve been waiting to see this movie for three years, finally found it. Not sure why I wanted to see it; I’ve never been a big Adam Sandler fan, but this one looked good. Unfortunately for me, it was not.
Incredible amount of yelling in this movie, lot of yelling. I have a headache right now. Kevin Garnett/Mike Francesa are in the movie; they do pretty well, for non-actors. Eric Bogosian and Judd Hirsch are in the movie; both very good actors. It didn’t help.
The story is about a guy who sells jewelry who has a gambling problem and owes lot of money to the wrong people. They yell at him, beat him up; he yells back, scrambles to win the money he needs with one big wager, kind of like Mark Wahlberg in The Gambler.
I’m glad I finally found the movie, I’m glad I have Showtime Anytime on my TV now, but damn, that was a disappointing movie.
— Less than 36 hours after losing a close Super Bowl, the Eagles lost both their coordinators; Indianapolis hired OC Shane Steichen as its new head coach. Arizona hired Jonathan Gannon as its new head coach; he was the Eagles’ defensive coordinator.
— Super Bowl Sunday night got the 3rd-highest rating of any Super Bowl, ranking behind the Seattle-New England game from several years ago, and the Rams-Bengals game last year (did I mention the Rams won that game??)
— Utah Utes’ offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig turned down a lateral move to Notre Dame; apparently, it would’ve cost $2M to buy out his contract with Utah. Notre Dame’s last OC bolted to Alabama last week, and he is an alumnus; they’re in a bit of a bind to hire a new OC.
Ludwig is 58 years old; he’s been at Utah for four years, which is a long time for an assistant football coach to be in the same place. College football coaches are nomads; Ludwig has also worked at Oregon, Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Wisconsin, USC.
— Baltimore Ravens hired Todd Monken as their new offensive coordinator; he comes from the Georgia Bulldogs. Monken has previously worked in the NFL, for Tampa Bay/Cleveland.
Georgia replaced Monken with former Georgia QB Mike Bobo.
— Last baseball season, there were only 122 balks called the whole season, the fewest in any season since 1973, but Major League Baseball really, really wants there to be more stolen bases going forward, so there are going to be bigger bases this season, and there is going to be an “emphasis on enforcement of the balk rule”
Less throws to first base, bigger bases, tighter balk rule; sounds like pitchers will have to throw more fastballs with men on base, which could result in more offense this season.
— Michael Wacha signed with the Padres this week; San Diego will be his fifth team in five years:
2019— 6-7, 4.76 in 24 starts with St Louis
2020— 1-4, 6.62 in seven starts with the Mets
2021— 3-5, 5.05 in 23 starts with Tampa Bay
2022— 11-2, 3.32 in 23 starts with the Red Sox
— Providence 94, Creighton 86, 2OT— Quite a night; Creighton’s subs played a total of 15:00 in a 50:00 game- Bluejays got outscored 10-2 in the second overtime. Loss snaps a 7-game win streak for Creighton.
— Oklahoma 79, Kansas State 65— K-State lost its last five road games; they’re 2-5 in their last seven games overall. Wildcats are 19-7, but they’re #327 in bench minutes; they getting tired?
Penn State 93, Illinois 81— Jalen Pickett scored 41 points for Penn State; he scored 49 points for Siena a few years ago. Not many players have scored 40+ points for two different teams.
— Auburn 89, Missouri 56— Total wipeout; Auburn had lost five of six games coming in, but they led 26-6 right off the bat, 45-18 at halftime.
— Alabama is #1 in the college basketball poll for the first time in 20 years.
— Wyoming 70, New Mexico 56— Lobos were 18-2 few weeks ago; now they’ve lost five of their last six games, giving up 80 ppg in last four, and have fallen off the bubble.
— Syracuse 75, NC State 72— Syracuse outscored the Wolfpack 16-3 on the foul line.
— St John’s 92, DePaul 83, 2OT— Blue Demons led 69-56 with 6:49 left to play, but they lost, their 7th consecutive loss.
— No preseason #1 team in college basketball has ever missed the NCAA Tournament, but North Carolina is headed that way; Tar Heels has lost four of its last five games; they’re 16-10, with one top 50 win (over #42 NC State). Bracketology has the Tar Heels among the last four teams in, a very tenuous place to be on February 15th.
— New Mexico State ended its basketball season, for off-court reasons; they fired first-year coach Greg Heiar Tuesday- this is a program that has been in the NCAA Tournament eight times the last 11 years. Will be interesting to see who they hire to rebuild the program.
— Our update on college basketball referee John Higgins:
January 24— Penn State @ Rutgers
January 25— Utah State @ San Diego State— Long plane ride for a back/back
January 26— Utah @ Oregon State
January 28— California @ Stanford
January 29— Michigan State @ Purdue— Day game after long plane ride.
January 30— Baylor @ Texas
January 31— Kansas State @ Kansas
February 1— Northern Iowa @ Drake- A double overtime game!!! Eight games in nine nights, and a double overtime game on the 9th night.
February 2— Wisconsin @ Ohio State
February 4— Oklahoma @ West Virginia
February 5— Penn State @ Nebraska
February 7— Nevada @ New Mexico
February 8— San Diego State @ Utah State
February 9— USC at Oregon
February 11— Wyoming @ Boise State
February 13— Texas @ Texas Tech
February 14— Kansas State @ Oklahoma
He’s worked 17 games in 22 days, 72 games since November 7, which is 72 games in 101 days. He is 54-years old; why don’t NBA players play on back/back nights?
— Spring training starts today, which is never a bad thing.
Wednesday’s 6-pack
College hoops teams who take the highest %age of 3-point shots:
51.8% of their shots are 3’s— Chattanooga
48.9%— San Francisco
48.2%— Penn State
48.1%— Villanova
47.5%— Cornell
47.5%— Southern Illinois
Quote of the Day
“I believe creativity is an inherent part of everyone, so never worry about failure. It’s going to happen, but that’s OK. Go ahead, take chances, and you might just find that what feels like failure isn’t failure at all, it’s what inspires you to dream even bigger.”
Kermit the Frog
Wednesday’s quiz
Before they moved to Oakland in 1968, Oakland A’s called two other cities home; which two cities?
Tuesday’s quiz
The NBA absorbed four teams from the ABA when the ABA folded after the 1975-76 season; Spurs, Nuggets, Pacers, Nets.
Monday’s quiz
Donovan McNabb was the Eagles’ QB the first time Andy Reid coached in a Super Bowl.
**************************
Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..
— While writing this tonight, I’ve been watching the movie Uncut Gems; I’ve been waiting to see this movie for three years, finally found it. Not sure why I wanted to see it; I’ve never been a big Adam Sandler fan, but this one looked good. Unfortunately for me, it was not.
Incredible amount of yelling in this movie, lot of yelling. I have a headache right now. Kevin Garnett/Mike Francesa are in the movie; they do pretty well, for non-actors. Eric Bogosian and Judd Hirsch are in the movie; both very good actors. It didn’t help.
The story is about a guy who sells jewelry who has a gambling problem and owes lot of money to the wrong people. They yell at him, beat him up; he yells back, scrambles to win the money he needs with one big wager, kind of like Mark Wahlberg in The Gambler.
I’m glad I finally found the movie, I’m glad I have Showtime Anytime on my TV now, but damn, that was a disappointing movie.
— Less than 36 hours after losing a close Super Bowl, the Eagles lost both their coordinators; Indianapolis hired OC Shane Steichen as its new head coach. Arizona hired Jonathan Gannon as its new head coach; he was the Eagles’ defensive coordinator.
— Super Bowl Sunday night got the 3rd-highest rating of any Super Bowl, ranking behind the Seattle-New England game from several years ago, and the Rams-Bengals game last year (did I mention the Rams won that game??)
— Utah Utes’ offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig turned down a lateral move to Notre Dame; apparently, it would’ve cost $2M to buy out his contract with Utah. Notre Dame’s last OC bolted to Alabama last week, and he is an alumnus; they’re in a bit of a bind to hire a new OC.
Ludwig is 58 years old; he’s been at Utah for four years, which is a long time for an assistant football coach to be in the same place. College football coaches are nomads; Ludwig has also worked at Oregon, Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Wisconsin, USC.
— Baltimore Ravens hired Todd Monken as their new offensive coordinator; he comes from the Georgia Bulldogs. Monken has previously worked in the NFL, for Tampa Bay/Cleveland.
Georgia replaced Monken with former Georgia QB Mike Bobo.
— Last baseball season, there were only 122 balks called the whole season, the fewest in any season since 1973, but Major League Baseball really, really wants there to be more stolen bases going forward, so there are going to be bigger bases this season, and there is going to be an “emphasis on enforcement of the balk rule”
Less throws to first base, bigger bases, tighter balk rule; sounds like pitchers will have to throw more fastballs with men on base, which could result in more offense this season.
— Michael Wacha signed with the Padres this week; San Diego will be his fifth team in five years:
2019— 6-7, 4.76 in 24 starts with St Louis
2020— 1-4, 6.62 in seven starts with the Mets
2021— 3-5, 5.05 in 23 starts with Tampa Bay
2022— 11-2, 3.32 in 23 starts with the Red Sox
— Providence 94, Creighton 86, 2OT— Quite a night; Creighton’s subs played a total of 15:00 in a 50:00 game- Bluejays got outscored 10-2 in the second overtime. Loss snaps a 7-game win streak for Creighton.
— Oklahoma 79, Kansas State 65— K-State lost its last five road games; they’re 2-5 in their last seven games overall. Wildcats are 19-7, but they’re #327 in bench minutes; they getting tired?
Penn State 93, Illinois 81— Jalen Pickett scored 41 points for Penn State; he scored 49 points for Siena a few years ago. Not many players have scored 40+ points for two different teams.
— Auburn 89, Missouri 56— Total wipeout; Auburn had lost five of six games coming in, but they led 26-6 right off the bat, 45-18 at halftime.
— Alabama is #1 in the college basketball poll for the first time in 20 years.
— Wyoming 70, New Mexico 56— Lobos were 18-2 few weeks ago; now they’ve lost five of their last six games, giving up 80 ppg in last four, and have fallen off the bubble.
— Syracuse 75, NC State 72— Syracuse outscored the Wolfpack 16-3 on the foul line.
— St John’s 92, DePaul 83, 2OT— Blue Demons led 69-56 with 6:49 left to play, but they lost, their 7th consecutive loss.
— No preseason #1 team in college basketball has ever missed the NCAA Tournament, but North Carolina is headed that way; Tar Heels has lost four of its last five games; they’re 16-10, with one top 50 win (over #42 NC State). Bracketology has the Tar Heels among the last four teams in, a very tenuous place to be on February 15th.
— New Mexico State ended its basketball season, for off-court reasons; they fired first-year coach Greg Heiar Tuesday- this is a program that has been in the NCAA Tournament eight times the last 11 years. Will be interesting to see who they hire to rebuild the program.
— Our update on college basketball referee John Higgins:
January 24— Penn State @ Rutgers
January 25— Utah State @ San Diego State— Long plane ride for a back/back
January 26— Utah @ Oregon State
January 28— California @ Stanford
January 29— Michigan State @ Purdue— Day game after long plane ride.
January 30— Baylor @ Texas
January 31— Kansas State @ Kansas
February 1— Northern Iowa @ Drake- A double overtime game!!! Eight games in nine nights, and a double overtime game on the 9th night.
February 2— Wisconsin @ Ohio State
February 4— Oklahoma @ West Virginia
February 5— Penn State @ Nebraska
February 7— Nevada @ New Mexico
February 8— San Diego State @ Utah State
February 9— USC at Oregon
February 11— Wyoming @ Boise State
February 13— Texas @ Texas Tech
February 14— Kansas State @ Oklahoma
He’s worked 17 games in 22 days, 72 games since November 7, which is 72 games in 101 days. He is 54-years old; why don’t NBA players play on back/back nights?
— Spring training starts today, which is never a bad thing.
CHICAGO is 8-3 ATS (4.7 Units) in road games in February games in the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 6-2 ATS (3.8 Units) in home games after playing a road game in the current season.
EDMONTON is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) off a road loss in the current season.
MINNESOTA is 19-4 ATS (14.6 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 18-53 ATS (-40.3 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days in the last 3 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 21-13 ATS (6.7 Units) after scoring 2 goals or less in 2 straight games in the last 3 seasons.
NHL
Dunkel
Wednesday, February 15
NHL
Wednesday, February 15
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Trend Report
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Chicago @ Toronto
Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Tampa Bay @ Arizona
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Detroit @ Edmonton
Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games
Edmonton is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Colorado @ Minnesota
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Colorado's last 9 games on the road
Colorado is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Buffalo @ Anaheim
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
Anaheim
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Anaheim's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Anaheim's last 15 games
NY Rangers @ Vancouver
NY Rangers
NY Rangers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Rangers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vancouver's last 5 games
Vancouver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Rangers
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ARIZONA is 6-2 ATS (3.8 Units) in home games after playing a road game in the current season.
EDMONTON is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) off a road loss in the current season.
MINNESOTA is 19-4 ATS (14.6 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 18-53 ATS (-40.3 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days in the last 3 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 21-13 ATS (6.7 Units) after scoring 2 goals or less in 2 straight games in the last 3 seasons.
NHL
Dunkel
Wednesday, February 15
NHL
Wednesday, February 15
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Trend Report
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Chicago @ Toronto
Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Tampa Bay @ Arizona
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Detroit @ Edmonton
Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games
Edmonton is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Colorado @ Minnesota
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Colorado's last 9 games on the road
Colorado is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Buffalo @ Anaheim
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
Anaheim
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Anaheim's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Anaheim's last 15 games
NY Rangers @ Vancouver
NY Rangers
NY Rangers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Rangers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vancouver's last 5 games
Vancouver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Rangers
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WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 15
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at TOR | 07:00 PM | TOR -450 U 6.5 | +500 +500 |
| TB at ARI | 09:00 PM | ARI +195 U 6.5 | +500 +500 |
| COL at MIN | 09:30 PM | MIN -135 O 6.0 | +500 +500 |
| DET at EDM | 09:30 PM | EDM -225 O 6.5 | +500 +500 |
| NYR at VAN | 10:00 PM | NYR -200 U 6.5 | +500 +500 |
| BUF at ANA | 10:00 PM | BUF -200 U 6.5 | +500 +500 |
Completed Picks
Past Completed Picks| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/15/2023 | 6-6-0 | 50.00% | -525 | Detail |
| 02/14/2023 | 7-11-0 | 38.89% | -2925 | Detail |
| 02/13/2023 | 6-3-1 | 65.00% | +2100 | Detail |
| 02/12/2023 | 3-5-0 | 37.50% | -1825 | Detail |
| 02/11/2023 | 15-13-0 | 53.57% | -160 | Detail |
| 02/10/2023 | 2-6-0 | 25.00% | -2150 | Detail |
| 02/09/2023 | 7-6-1 | 53.57% | -400 | Detail |
| 02/08/2023 | 1-3-0 | 25.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 02/07/2023 | 6-5-1 | 54.17% | +650 | Detail |
| 02/06/2023 | 6-5-0 | 54.55% | +800 | Detail |
| 02/01/2023 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +1000 | Detail |
Armadillo Sports
Thursday’s 6-pack
Odds to win the college basketball national title:
13-2— Houston
17-2— Purdue
9-1— Alabama
14-1— Arizona, Kansas, UCLA
20-1— Baylor, UConn
22-1— Tennessee, Texas
Quote of the Day
“I can’t begin to imagine what all of you are going through. Look around, look next to you. Shake somebody’s hand. Introduce yourself to someone you don’t know. That’s who we are and that’s who we need to be right now………Don’t be afraid to show your emotions. We all process trauma in different ways. I am just glad we are all here together, tonight. So let me close with a challenge. Let us do a better job taking care of each other.”
Tom Izzo
Thursday’s quiz
In the football movie Any Given Sunday, which actress played the owner of the Miami Sharks?
Wednesday’s quiz
Before they moved to Oakland in 1968, Oakland A’s called two other cities home; Kansas City and Philadelphia.
Tuesday’s quiz
The NBA absorbed four teams from the ABA when the ABA folded after the 1975-76 season; Spurs, Nuggets, Pacers, Nets.
******************************
Thursday’s Den: Over/under win totals for 2023 baseball, plus other stuff
Over/under win totals for the 2023 baseball season:
NL East
Braves 95.5
Mets 95.5
Phillies 88.5
Marlins 74.5
Nationals 60.5
NL Central
Cardinals 89.5
Brewers 85
Cubs 77.5
Pirates 67.5
Reds 64.5
NL West
Dodgers 96.5
Padres 93.5
Giants 80.5
Arizona 75.5
Rockies 67.5
AL East
New York 95.5
Blue Jays 92.5
Tampa Bay 88.5
Red Sox 77.5
Orioles 76.5
AL Central
Guardians 87.5
White Sox 84.5
Twins 82.5
Tigers 69.5
Royals 68.5
AL West
Astros 96.5
Mariners 88.5
Rangers 82.5
Angels 80.5
A’s 59.5
— Marquette 69, Xavier 68— Xavier led 19-6 early; they were minus-10 in turnovers (17-7). Marquette was only 5-22 on arc; they lead Big East by 1.5 games.
— Cal-Irvine 70, UCSB 59— Anteaters are now tied with Santa Barbara stop Big West standings. Since 2013, Irvine is 129-45 in Big West games; they haven’t made the NCAA’s since 2019, but this could be their year.
— Northwestern 64, Indiana 62— Wildcats blew a 19-point lead, scoring winning hoop with 0:02 left; they’re in 2nd place in Big 14, will be in NCAA Tournament for second time ever.
— Tennessee 68, Alabama 59— Vols were +11 on boards, held Alabama to 35.4% from floor. Crimson Tide hadn’t been #1 in country for 20 years; it didn’t last very long.
— San Diego State 45, Fresno State 43— Not often you score 45 points and win; this was an ugly game. Fresno shot 2-25 on the arc. Aztecs have a 1.5-game lead atop Mountain West standings.
— Virginia 61, Louisville 58— Surprisingly tough win for the Cavaliers.
— Washington 72, Oregon 71 OT— Ducks led by 8 with 12:11 left in game; not good for a bubble team to lose games like this.
— Texas A&M 62, Arkansas 56— Not sure what’s up with the Razorbacks; they led 33-24 at the half, then scored 23 points in second half. Star freshman Nick Smith played 4:00, none in the second half. They keep saying he is a high first round pick in June’s NBA Draft, but he played 4:00 in this game. Not good.
— VCU 55, Rhode Island 54— VCU trailed 44-31 with 11:44 left; they outscored URI 24-10 over last 11:44, win despite going 1-13 on the arc.
— East Carolina 75, Cincinnati 71— Bearcats led by 16 with 9:09 left in game; ECU outscored them 26-6 over the final 9:09. Damaging loss for Cincinnati’s at-large hopes.
— Our update on college basketball referee John Higgins:
January 24— Penn State @ Rutgers
January 25— Utah State @ San Diego State— Long plane ride for a back/back
January 26— Utah @ Oregon State
January 28— California @ Stanford
January 29— Michigan State @ Purdue— Day game after long plane ride.
January 30— Baylor @ Texas
January 31— Kansas State @ Kansas
February 1— Northern Iowa @ Drake- A double overtime game!!! Eight games in nine nights, and a double overtime game on the 9th night.
February 2— Wisconsin @ Ohio State
February 4— Oklahoma @ West Virginia
February 5— Penn State @ Nebraska
February 7— Nevada @ New Mexico
February 8— San Diego State @ Utah State
February 9— USC at Oregon
February 11— Wyoming @ Boise State
February 13— Texas @ Texas Tech
February 14— Kansas State @ Oklahoma
February 15— TCU @ Iowa State
He’s worked 18 games in 23 days, 73 games since November 7, which is 73 games in 102 days. He is 54-years old; why don’t NBA players play on back/back nights?
Thursday’s 6-pack
Odds to win the college basketball national title:
13-2— Houston
17-2— Purdue
9-1— Alabama
14-1— Arizona, Kansas, UCLA
20-1— Baylor, UConn
22-1— Tennessee, Texas
Quote of the Day
“I can’t begin to imagine what all of you are going through. Look around, look next to you. Shake somebody’s hand. Introduce yourself to someone you don’t know. That’s who we are and that’s who we need to be right now………Don’t be afraid to show your emotions. We all process trauma in different ways. I am just glad we are all here together, tonight. So let me close with a challenge. Let us do a better job taking care of each other.”
Tom Izzo
Thursday’s quiz
In the football movie Any Given Sunday, which actress played the owner of the Miami Sharks?
Wednesday’s quiz
Before they moved to Oakland in 1968, Oakland A’s called two other cities home; Kansas City and Philadelphia.
Tuesday’s quiz
The NBA absorbed four teams from the ABA when the ABA folded after the 1975-76 season; Spurs, Nuggets, Pacers, Nets.
******************************
Thursday’s Den: Over/under win totals for 2023 baseball, plus other stuff
Over/under win totals for the 2023 baseball season:
NL East
Braves 95.5
Mets 95.5
Phillies 88.5
Marlins 74.5
Nationals 60.5
NL Central
Cardinals 89.5
Brewers 85
Cubs 77.5
Pirates 67.5
Reds 64.5
NL West
Dodgers 96.5
Padres 93.5
Giants 80.5
Arizona 75.5
Rockies 67.5
AL East
New York 95.5
Blue Jays 92.5
Tampa Bay 88.5
Red Sox 77.5
Orioles 76.5
AL Central
Guardians 87.5
White Sox 84.5
Twins 82.5
Tigers 69.5
Royals 68.5
AL West
Astros 96.5
Mariners 88.5
Rangers 82.5
Angels 80.5
A’s 59.5
— Marquette 69, Xavier 68— Xavier led 19-6 early; they were minus-10 in turnovers (17-7). Marquette was only 5-22 on arc; they lead Big East by 1.5 games.
— Cal-Irvine 70, UCSB 59— Anteaters are now tied with Santa Barbara stop Big West standings. Since 2013, Irvine is 129-45 in Big West games; they haven’t made the NCAA’s since 2019, but this could be their year.
— Northwestern 64, Indiana 62— Wildcats blew a 19-point lead, scoring winning hoop with 0:02 left; they’re in 2nd place in Big 14, will be in NCAA Tournament for second time ever.
— Tennessee 68, Alabama 59— Vols were +11 on boards, held Alabama to 35.4% from floor. Crimson Tide hadn’t been #1 in country for 20 years; it didn’t last very long.
— San Diego State 45, Fresno State 43— Not often you score 45 points and win; this was an ugly game. Fresno shot 2-25 on the arc. Aztecs have a 1.5-game lead atop Mountain West standings.
— Virginia 61, Louisville 58— Surprisingly tough win for the Cavaliers.
— Washington 72, Oregon 71 OT— Ducks led by 8 with 12:11 left in game; not good for a bubble team to lose games like this.
— Texas A&M 62, Arkansas 56— Not sure what’s up with the Razorbacks; they led 33-24 at the half, then scored 23 points in second half. Star freshman Nick Smith played 4:00, none in the second half. They keep saying he is a high first round pick in June’s NBA Draft, but he played 4:00 in this game. Not good.
— VCU 55, Rhode Island 54— VCU trailed 44-31 with 11:44 left; they outscored URI 24-10 over last 11:44, win despite going 1-13 on the arc.
— East Carolina 75, Cincinnati 71— Bearcats led by 16 with 9:09 left in game; ECU outscored them 26-6 over the final 9:09. Damaging loss for Cincinnati’s at-large hopes.
— Our update on college basketball referee John Higgins:
January 24— Penn State @ Rutgers
January 25— Utah State @ San Diego State— Long plane ride for a back/back
January 26— Utah @ Oregon State
January 28— California @ Stanford
January 29— Michigan State @ Purdue— Day game after long plane ride.
January 30— Baylor @ Texas
January 31— Kansas State @ Kansas
February 1— Northern Iowa @ Drake- A double overtime game!!! Eight games in nine nights, and a double overtime game on the 9th night.
February 2— Wisconsin @ Ohio State
February 4— Oklahoma @ West Virginia
February 5— Penn State @ Nebraska
February 7— Nevada @ New Mexico
February 8— San Diego State @ Utah State
February 9— USC at Oregon
February 11— Wyoming @ Boise State
February 13— Texas @ Texas Tech
February 14— Kansas State @ Oklahoma
February 15— TCU @ Iowa State
He’s worked 18 games in 23 days, 73 games since November 7, which is 73 games in 102 days. He is 54-years old; why don’t NBA players play on back/back nights?
FLORIDA is 7-1 Over (5.9 Units) in road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days in the current season.
CAROLINA is 13-0 ATS (13 Units) off a close win by 1 goal over a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
COLUMBUS are 18-9 ATS (8.1 Units) in home games in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 8-1 Over (6.9 Units) after scoring 2 goals or less in 2 straight games in the current season.
NEW JERSEY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite in the current season.
DETROIT is 10-6 ATS (3.4 Units) in road games after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-2 ATS (4.8 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite in the current season.
SAN JOSE is 176-162 ATS (-2.2 Units) in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games since 1996.
CAROLINA is 13-0 ATS (13 Units) off a close win by 1 goal over a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
COLUMBUS are 18-9 ATS (8.1 Units) in home games in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 8-1 Over (6.9 Units) after scoring 2 goals or less in 2 straight games in the current season.
NEW JERSEY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite in the current season.
DETROIT is 10-6 ATS (3.4 Units) in road games after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-2 ATS (4.8 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite in the current season.
SAN JOSE is 176-162 ATS (-2.2 Units) in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games since 1996.
NHL
Thursday, February 16
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Trend Report
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Montreal @ Carolina
Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Montreal is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
Winnipeg @ Columbus
Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Columbus
Columbus
Columbus is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Columbus's last 12 games when playing Winnipeg
Florida @ Washington
Florida
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida's last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
Florida is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing at home against Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games at home
Boston @ Nashville
Boston
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Nashville
Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nashville's last 5 games when playing Boston
Nashville is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Boston
New Jersey @ St. Louis
New Jersey
New Jersey is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games
St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against New Jersey
Detroit @ Calgary
Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Calgary
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Calgary is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Philadelphia @ Seattle
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
San Jose @ Vegas
San Jose
San Jose is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Jose is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Vegas
Vegas
Vegas is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing San Jose
Vegas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Jose
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Thursday, February 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Montreal @ Carolina
Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Montreal is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
Winnipeg @ Columbus
Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Columbus
Columbus
Columbus is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Columbus's last 12 games when playing Winnipeg
Florida @ Washington
Florida
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida's last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
Florida is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing at home against Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games at home
Boston @ Nashville
Boston
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Nashville
Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nashville's last 5 games when playing Boston
Nashville is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Boston
New Jersey @ St. Louis
New Jersey
New Jersey is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games
St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against New Jersey
Detroit @ Calgary
Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Calgary
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Calgary is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Philadelphia @ Seattle
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
San Jose @ Vegas
San Jose
San Jose is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Jose is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Vegas
Vegas
Vegas is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing San Jose
Vegas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Jose
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THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 16
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| MON at CAR | 07:00 PM | MON +350 O 6.0 | +500 +500 |
| WIN at CLB | 07:00 PM | WIN -200 O 6.0 | +500 +500 |
| FLA at WAS | 07:00 PM | FLA -120 O 6.5 | +500 +500 |
| BOS at NAS | 08:00 PM | BOS -185 O 5.5 | +500 +500 |
| DET at CAL | 09:00 PM | DET +230 O 6.5 | +500 +500 |
| NJ at STL | 09:00 PM | NJ -150 U 6.5 | +500 +500 |
| SJ at VEG | 10:00 PM | SJ +165 O 6.5 | +500 +500 |
| PHI at SEA | 10:00 PM | SEA -200 O 6.0 | +500 +500 |
Completed Picks
Past Completed Picks| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/16/2023 | 9-7-0 | 56.25% | +750 | Detail |
| 02/15/2023 | 6-6-0 | 50.00% | -525 | Detail |
| 02/14/2023 | 7-11-0 | 38.89% | -2925 | Detail |
| 02/13/2023 | 6-3-1 | 65.00% | +2100 | Detail |
| 02/12/2023 | 3-5-0 | 37.50% | -1825 | Detail |
| 02/11/2023 | 15-13-0 | 53.57% | -160 | Detail |
| 02/10/2023 | 2-6-0 | 25.00% | -2150 | Detail |
| 02/09/2023 | 7-6-1 | 53.57% | -400 | Detail |
| 02/08/2023 | 1-3-0 | 25.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 02/07/2023 | 6-5-1 | 54.17% | +650 | Detail |
| 02/06/2023 | 6-5-0 | 54.55% | +800 | Detail |
| 02/01/2023 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +1000 | Detail |
Armadillo Sports
Friday’s 6-pack
Early odds to win next year’s Super Bowl:
6-1— Buffalo/Kansas City
8-1— Philadelphia/San Francisco
10-1— Cincinnati
16-1— Dallas
20-1— Baltimore, Jacksonville, LA Chargers
25-1— Detroit
Quote of the Day
“It is very difficult to adjust to it……I hope we get a dome.”
Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields, talking about the Chicago weather
Friday’s quiz
Who did the New York Knicks play, last time they were in the NBA Finals?
Thursday’s quiz
In the football movie Any Given Sunday, Cameron Diaz played the owner of the Miami Sharks.
Wednesday’s quiz
Before they moved to Oakland in 1968, Oakland A’s called two other cities home; Kansas City and Philadelphia.
****************************
Friday’s Den: Identifying trends for this year’s NCAA tournament
Are there any characteristics that can identify teams that will win the college basketball national title? I’ve studied the last six national champs, and came up with some trends:
— Last five national champs were #1-seeds; Villanova was a #2-seed when they won in 2016, Duke was a #1-seed when they won in 2015.
In 2014, 7-seed UConn beat 8-seed Kentucky in the national title game; since that year, six of the seven national champs have been #1-seeds.
The teams that lost the last seven national title games: four #1-seeds, two #3-seeds and a #8-seed (North Carolina last year)
Power conference teams have ruled the tournament, which doesn’t bode well for Houston in this year’s event.
— Tempo/pace of play— Nothing here; last six national champs have been all over the board as far as tempo goes.
— Offensive efficiency— This one is huge; last six national champs were all in the top 10 in this category. As I type this, that would narrow the potential national champs to:
Baylor
Gonzaga
Houston
Marquette
Iowa
Missouri
Xavier
Miami
Arizona
Purdue
— Defensive efficiency— Last six national champs were all in the top 25 in this category; there are five SEC teams in top 25 defensive efficiency.
— eFG%— This is same as regular FG%, except 3-pointers count as 1.5 baskets made. Five of the last six national champs were in the top 30 in this category.
— eFG% defense— Little bit of a mixed bag; Baylor was #121 two years ago, North Carolina was #71 in 2017. Doesn’t seem to be as important as the offensive end.
— 2-point FG%— Four of last six national champs were in top 50 in 2-point FG%.
— Point distribution— There seems to be no correlation, none, to how national champs got their points. This especially applies to foul shots; of the last six champs, Kansas last year (#184) ranked in the top 200 of getting their points on the foul line.
To beat quality teams, you cannot depend on getting the best of the whistles. Fewer fouls are called in March; guys have to play through contact to have success.
— Non-conference strength of schedule— Baylor ’21/Virginia ’19 had terrible non-conference schedules; the other four champs ranked in the top 90, but Kansas LY (#49) had the only top 50 non-conference schedules.
— Overall strength of schedule— This indicates a trend: five of the last six national champs had an overall strength of schedule in the top 25, pointing us towards the power conferences to pick our national champ. Baylor is 2021 (#54) is the lone exception from the last six years.
— Depth— This one is surprising; of the last six national champs, only North Carolina in 2017 (#69) had bench minutes in the top 200. TV timeouts are longer in the NCAA’s; depth doesn’t mean as much.
— Experience— Of the last six national champs, only Baylor in 2021 was in the top 100 in this category; talent is more important than experience, and there is no metric that measures talent.
— Continuity— This category helps some; four of the last six national champs had a continuity in the top 80, with Baylor (#31), Kansas (#45) winning the last two years. In this day and age when kids transfer a lot, talented teams that bond over a period of 2-3 years have an advantage.
In Thursday’s play……..
— Maryland 68, Purdue 54— Purdue had only two players score more than 6 points; they’ve now lost three of their last four games, after a 22-1 start. Boilermakers scored 54-58 points in their last two games.
— Gonzaga 108, LMU 65— Zags avenged an earlier loss to LMU; they led 68-28 at halftime.
— Middle Tennessee 74, Florida Atlantic 70— Owls are 3-2 in their last five games, after a 21-1 start; they’ve given up 80 ppg in their last three games.
— Iowa 92, Ohio State 75— Buckeyes are in free fall; they’ve lost seven in row, 12 of last 13 games- they’re shooting 46.1% inside arc in Big 14 games.
— Memphis 64, UCF 63— Tigers led 43-35 at halftime; they hung on to win, scoring 20 points in second half. Memphis turned ball over 24 times; they’ve won eight of their last nine games.
— NC-Wilmington 72, Drexel 71, 2OT— Drexel led by 15 early, by 4 with 1:16 left in the first OT. Dragons were just 13-21 on foul line in a one-point loss. UNCW won six of its last seven games; the last two seasons, Seahawks are 48-16, 28-8 in CAA play.
— Southern Indiana 82, Little Rock 81— Trojans lost 11 of their last 14 games; five of their last six losses are by 4 or less points.
— South Alabama 85, Southern Miss 54— Golden Eagles had won nine games in a row, but South Alabama shot 74% inside the arc in this game. USM leads Marshall/Louisiana by one game each in Sun Belt standings.
— RIP Tim McCarver, who passed away at age 81. McCarver caught in the major leagues for 21 years, appearing in four different decades. He then became one of the game’s best TV analysts, working 24 World Series.
McCarver was especially good as a TV analyst for the Mets in the late 80’s; he was great when he worked every day on.a local broadcast, as opposed to only once a week on network TV. I learned a lot listening to him every night.
RIP, sir.
Friday’s 6-pack
Early odds to win next year’s Super Bowl:
6-1— Buffalo/Kansas City
8-1— Philadelphia/San Francisco
10-1— Cincinnati
16-1— Dallas
20-1— Baltimore, Jacksonville, LA Chargers
25-1— Detroit
Quote of the Day
“It is very difficult to adjust to it……I hope we get a dome.”
Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields, talking about the Chicago weather
Friday’s quiz
Who did the New York Knicks play, last time they were in the NBA Finals?
Thursday’s quiz
In the football movie Any Given Sunday, Cameron Diaz played the owner of the Miami Sharks.
Wednesday’s quiz
Before they moved to Oakland in 1968, Oakland A’s called two other cities home; Kansas City and Philadelphia.
****************************
Friday’s Den: Identifying trends for this year’s NCAA tournament
Are there any characteristics that can identify teams that will win the college basketball national title? I’ve studied the last six national champs, and came up with some trends:
— Last five national champs were #1-seeds; Villanova was a #2-seed when they won in 2016, Duke was a #1-seed when they won in 2015.
In 2014, 7-seed UConn beat 8-seed Kentucky in the national title game; since that year, six of the seven national champs have been #1-seeds.
The teams that lost the last seven national title games: four #1-seeds, two #3-seeds and a #8-seed (North Carolina last year)
Power conference teams have ruled the tournament, which doesn’t bode well for Houston in this year’s event.
— Tempo/pace of play— Nothing here; last six national champs have been all over the board as far as tempo goes.
— Offensive efficiency— This one is huge; last six national champs were all in the top 10 in this category. As I type this, that would narrow the potential national champs to:
Baylor
Gonzaga
Houston
Marquette
Iowa
Missouri
Xavier
Miami
Arizona
Purdue
— Defensive efficiency— Last six national champs were all in the top 25 in this category; there are five SEC teams in top 25 defensive efficiency.
— eFG%— This is same as regular FG%, except 3-pointers count as 1.5 baskets made. Five of the last six national champs were in the top 30 in this category.
— eFG% defense— Little bit of a mixed bag; Baylor was #121 two years ago, North Carolina was #71 in 2017. Doesn’t seem to be as important as the offensive end.
— 2-point FG%— Four of last six national champs were in top 50 in 2-point FG%.
— Point distribution— There seems to be no correlation, none, to how national champs got their points. This especially applies to foul shots; of the last six champs, Kansas last year (#184) ranked in the top 200 of getting their points on the foul line.
To beat quality teams, you cannot depend on getting the best of the whistles. Fewer fouls are called in March; guys have to play through contact to have success.
— Non-conference strength of schedule— Baylor ’21/Virginia ’19 had terrible non-conference schedules; the other four champs ranked in the top 90, but Kansas LY (#49) had the only top 50 non-conference schedules.
— Overall strength of schedule— This indicates a trend: five of the last six national champs had an overall strength of schedule in the top 25, pointing us towards the power conferences to pick our national champ. Baylor is 2021 (#54) is the lone exception from the last six years.
— Depth— This one is surprising; of the last six national champs, only North Carolina in 2017 (#69) had bench minutes in the top 200. TV timeouts are longer in the NCAA’s; depth doesn’t mean as much.
— Experience— Of the last six national champs, only Baylor in 2021 was in the top 100 in this category; talent is more important than experience, and there is no metric that measures talent.
— Continuity— This category helps some; four of the last six national champs had a continuity in the top 80, with Baylor (#31), Kansas (#45) winning the last two years. In this day and age when kids transfer a lot, talented teams that bond over a period of 2-3 years have an advantage.
In Thursday’s play……..
— Maryland 68, Purdue 54— Purdue had only two players score more than 6 points; they’ve now lost three of their last four games, after a 22-1 start. Boilermakers scored 54-58 points in their last two games.
— Gonzaga 108, LMU 65— Zags avenged an earlier loss to LMU; they led 68-28 at halftime.
— Middle Tennessee 74, Florida Atlantic 70— Owls are 3-2 in their last five games, after a 21-1 start; they’ve given up 80 ppg in their last three games.
— Iowa 92, Ohio State 75— Buckeyes are in free fall; they’ve lost seven in row, 12 of last 13 games- they’re shooting 46.1% inside arc in Big 14 games.
— Memphis 64, UCF 63— Tigers led 43-35 at halftime; they hung on to win, scoring 20 points in second half. Memphis turned ball over 24 times; they’ve won eight of their last nine games.
— NC-Wilmington 72, Drexel 71, 2OT— Drexel led by 15 early, by 4 with 1:16 left in the first OT. Dragons were just 13-21 on foul line in a one-point loss. UNCW won six of its last seven games; the last two seasons, Seahawks are 48-16, 28-8 in CAA play.
— Southern Indiana 82, Little Rock 81— Trojans lost 11 of their last 14 games; five of their last six losses are by 4 or less points.
— South Alabama 85, Southern Miss 54— Golden Eagles had won nine games in a row, but South Alabama shot 74% inside the arc in this game. USM leads Marshall/Louisiana by one game each in Sun Belt standings.
— RIP Tim McCarver, who passed away at age 81. McCarver caught in the major leagues for 21 years, appearing in four different decades. He then became one of the game’s best TV analysts, working 24 World Series.
McCarver was especially good as a TV analyst for the Mets in the late 80’s; he was great when he worked every day on.a local broadcast, as opposed to only once a week on network TV. I learned a lot listening to him every night.
RIP, sir.
OTTAWA is 8-2 ATS (5.8 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 8-1 Under (6.9 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games in the curre...
MINNESOTA is 10-0 Over (10 Units) at home when the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 8-1 Over (6.9 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals in the last 3 seasons.
NHL
Friday, February 17
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Trend Report
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Pittsburgh @ NY Islanders
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
NY Islanders is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Chicago @ Ottawa
Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Ottawa
Ottawa is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ottawa's last 8 games when playing at home against Chicago
Dallas @ Minnesota
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Dallas's last 10 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games
NY Rangers @ Edmonton
NY Rangers
NY Rangers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Rangers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Edmonton
Edmonton is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Rangers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games
Los Angeles @ Anaheim
Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games
Anaheim
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Anaheim's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Anaheim's last 16 games
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NY ISLANDERS are 8-1 Under (6.9 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games in the curre...
MINNESOTA is 10-0 Over (10 Units) at home when the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 8-1 Over (6.9 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals in the last 3 seasons.
NHL
Friday, February 17
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pittsburgh @ NY Islanders
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
NY Islanders is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Chicago @ Ottawa
Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Ottawa
Ottawa is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ottawa's last 8 games when playing at home against Chicago
Dallas @ Minnesota
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Dallas's last 10 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games
NY Rangers @ Edmonton
NY Rangers
NY Rangers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Rangers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Edmonton
Edmonton is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Rangers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games
Los Angeles @ Anaheim
Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games
Anaheim
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Anaheim's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Anaheim's last 16 games
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Completed Picks
Past Completed Picks| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/17/2023 | 5-3-0 | 62.50% | +25 | Detail |
| 02/16/2023 | 9-7-0 | 56.25% | +750 | Detail |
| 02/15/2023 | 6-6-0 | 50.00% | -525 | Detail |
| 02/14/2023 | 7-11-0 | 38.89% | -2925 | Detail |
| 02/13/2023 | 6-3-1 | 65.00% | +2100 | Detail |
| 02/12/2023 | 3-5-0 | 37.50% | -1825 | Detail |
| 02/11/2023 | 15-13-0 | 53.57% | -160 | Detail |
| 02/10/2023 | 2-6-0 | 25.00% | -2150 | Detail |
| 02/09/2023 | 7-6-1 | 53.57% | -400 | Detail |
| 02/08/2023 | 1-3-0 | 25.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 02/07/2023 | 6-5-1 | 54.17% | +650 | Detail |
| 02/06/2023 | 6-5-0 | 54.55% | +800 | Detail |
| 02/01/2023 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +1000 | Detail |
Armadillo Sports
Saturday’s 6-pack
Odds to win the World Baseball Championship
2-1— Dominican Republic
5-2— United States
7-2— Japan
9-1— Puerto Rico
18-1— Cuba, Korea, Venezuela
30-1— Chinese Taipei
40-1— Mexico
Quote of the Day
“And with college basketball, if you can pick a Final 4 or National Champion – you have a crystal ball. I’ve never seen such parity in my life. Anyone can win it this year”
Rick Pitino
Saturday’s quiz
In the movie The Rewrite, Hugh Grant plays a Hollywood screenwriter who teaches a writing course at which northeastern college?
Friday’s quiz
Last time New York Knicks were in the NBA Finals, they lost in five games to San Antonio, in 1999.
Thursday’s quiz
In the football movie Any Given Sunday, Cameron Diaz played the owner of the Miami Sharks.
**************************
Saturday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..
— Do first round results in the NCAA Tournament indicate which teams are mostly likely to win the national championship?
Last 16 national champs went 13-3 ATS in their first round game.
Last 20 national champs went 17-3 ATS in their second round game.
— San Diego Padres’ 3B Manny Machado has a $30M a year contract thru 2028, but he can opt out after this season, which he says he will do. That’s his decision, but……..
Why announce it now? Why is that a good idea? How does that help HIM?
Padres have spent lot of $$$ to be contenders this season; why upstage that optimism by acting like a selfish jerk?
— Sounds like Padres/Angels are going to use 6-man starting pitching rotations, which would be unusual. Angels are probably doing it because Shohei Ohtani is used to that from Japan; no idea why San Diego is doing it.
— There have been eight times in NBA history where a player scored 40+ points while also grabbing 40+ rebounds. In one game.
All eight of those games belong to Wilt Chamberlain.
— Win/loss record for the Jets’ last 12 starting QB’s:
8-14— Zach Wilson
1-8— Joe Flacco
2-5— Mike White
13-25— Sam Darnold
0-2— Luke Falk
0-1— Trevor Siemian
5-11— Josh McCown
1-6— Bryce Petty
13-14— Ryan Fitzpatrick
1-2— Michael Vick
12-18— Geno Smith
33-29— Mark Sanchez
This helps explain why they’d like to add Aaron Rodgers; Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2010.
— Colleges that had the most players in cited to this year’s NBA Combine:
13— Alabama
12— Georgia
9— Florida, LSU, Michigan, TCU
8— Clemson, Ohio State
7— Maryland, Oklahoma, Penn State, Tennessee
— NFL coaching stuff:
Washington Commanders hired Eric Bieniemy as their new offensive coordinator.
Carolina Panthers hired Thomas Brown as their new offensive coordinator.
— Los Angeles Dodgers had a great year last year, they went 111-51, but they were only 16-15 in one-run games. Their record could’ve been a lot better.
Colorado Rockies went 23-24 in one-run games, but they finished 68-94. Could’ve been a lot worse.
— Angels signed P Matt Moore to a one-year deal worth $7.5M.
— It is interesting how leagues do things differently:
NBA has their trade deadline the week before their All-Star Game
NHL has their trade deadline several weeks after their All-Star Game
— Boston Celtics took the interim coach tag off of 34-year old Joe Mazzulla; he is now their permanent head coach. Celtics are 42-17 under Mazzulla.
— Looking at the #1-5 seeds in the NBA’s Western Conference, only one of them has ever won an NBA title and that was way back in 1951, when the Rochester Royals won a championship in the NBA’s third season.
Royals moved to Cincinnati in 1957.
Royals changed their name to the Kings, moved to Kansas City in 1972.
Kings moved to Sacramento in 1985.
— Longest winning streaks in college basketball:
16— Eastern Washington, Big Sky
11— Oral Roberts, Summit
10— Toledo, MAC
9— Hofstra CAA/Northwestern State Southland
— XFL starts this weekend, with four games, as football never rests.
— Get well soon to Richmond basketball coach Chris Mooney, who will have heart surgery soon and miss the rest of this season; Mooney will undergo a procedure to remove an aneurysm in his ascending aorta. Assistant coach Peter Thomas will be the Spiders’ interim head coach.
Saturday’s 6-pack
Odds to win the World Baseball Championship
2-1— Dominican Republic
5-2— United States
7-2— Japan
9-1— Puerto Rico
18-1— Cuba, Korea, Venezuela
30-1— Chinese Taipei
40-1— Mexico
Quote of the Day
“And with college basketball, if you can pick a Final 4 or National Champion – you have a crystal ball. I’ve never seen such parity in my life. Anyone can win it this year”
Rick Pitino
Saturday’s quiz
In the movie The Rewrite, Hugh Grant plays a Hollywood screenwriter who teaches a writing course at which northeastern college?
Friday’s quiz
Last time New York Knicks were in the NBA Finals, they lost in five games to San Antonio, in 1999.
Thursday’s quiz
In the football movie Any Given Sunday, Cameron Diaz played the owner of the Miami Sharks.
**************************
Saturday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..
— Do first round results in the NCAA Tournament indicate which teams are mostly likely to win the national championship?
Last 16 national champs went 13-3 ATS in their first round game.
Last 20 national champs went 17-3 ATS in their second round game.
— San Diego Padres’ 3B Manny Machado has a $30M a year contract thru 2028, but he can opt out after this season, which he says he will do. That’s his decision, but……..
Why announce it now? Why is that a good idea? How does that help HIM?
Padres have spent lot of $$$ to be contenders this season; why upstage that optimism by acting like a selfish jerk?
— Sounds like Padres/Angels are going to use 6-man starting pitching rotations, which would be unusual. Angels are probably doing it because Shohei Ohtani is used to that from Japan; no idea why San Diego is doing it.
— There have been eight times in NBA history where a player scored 40+ points while also grabbing 40+ rebounds. In one game.
All eight of those games belong to Wilt Chamberlain.
— Win/loss record for the Jets’ last 12 starting QB’s:
8-14— Zach Wilson
1-8— Joe Flacco
2-5— Mike White
13-25— Sam Darnold
0-2— Luke Falk
0-1— Trevor Siemian
5-11— Josh McCown
1-6— Bryce Petty
13-14— Ryan Fitzpatrick
1-2— Michael Vick
12-18— Geno Smith
33-29— Mark Sanchez
This helps explain why they’d like to add Aaron Rodgers; Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2010.
— Colleges that had the most players in cited to this year’s NBA Combine:
13— Alabama
12— Georgia
9— Florida, LSU, Michigan, TCU
8— Clemson, Ohio State
7— Maryland, Oklahoma, Penn State, Tennessee
— NFL coaching stuff:
Washington Commanders hired Eric Bieniemy as their new offensive coordinator.
Carolina Panthers hired Thomas Brown as their new offensive coordinator.
— Los Angeles Dodgers had a great year last year, they went 111-51, but they were only 16-15 in one-run games. Their record could’ve been a lot better.
Colorado Rockies went 23-24 in one-run games, but they finished 68-94. Could’ve been a lot worse.
— Angels signed P Matt Moore to a one-year deal worth $7.5M.
— It is interesting how leagues do things differently:
NBA has their trade deadline the week before their All-Star Game
NHL has their trade deadline several weeks after their All-Star Game
— Boston Celtics took the interim coach tag off of 34-year old Joe Mazzulla; he is now their permanent head coach. Celtics are 42-17 under Mazzulla.
— Looking at the #1-5 seeds in the NBA’s Western Conference, only one of them has ever won an NBA title and that was way back in 1951, when the Rochester Royals won a championship in the NBA’s third season.
Royals moved to Cincinnati in 1957.
Royals changed their name to the Kings, moved to Kansas City in 1972.
Kings moved to Sacramento in 1985.
— Longest winning streaks in college basketball:
16— Eastern Washington, Big Sky
11— Oral Roberts, Summit
10— Toledo, MAC
9— Hofstra CAA/Northwestern State Southland
— XFL starts this weekend, with four games, as football never rests.
— Get well soon to Richmond basketball coach Chris Mooney, who will have heart surgery soon and miss the rest of this season; Mooney will undergo a procedure to remove an aneurysm in his ascending aorta. Assistant coach Peter Thomas will be the Spiders’ interim head coach.
