August 27th
Rams/Bengals under 37 (-110), 1*
Bears/Browns over 41.5 (-110), 1*
Bucs/Colts over 41.5 (-110), 1*
Colts -3.5 (-110), 1*
Vikings pk (-110), 1*
Added two bets to my card. Brady is only playing for a series. Home teams have been rolling in week 3. I expect that to continue today at a pretty high clip. Feels like the Rams and Bengals have been going through the motions all preseason. This is another situation where I like playing the under after both teams participated in joint practices. Just like the Patriots/Raiders game last night. Good luck.
Rams/Bengals under 37 (-110), 1*
Bears/Browns over 41.5 (-110), 1*
Bucs/Colts over 41.5 (-110), 1*
Colts -3.5 (-110), 1*
Vikings pk (-110), 1*
Added two bets to my card. Brady is only playing for a series. Home teams have been rolling in week 3. I expect that to continue today at a pretty high clip. Feels like the Rams and Bengals have been going through the motions all preseason. This is another situation where I like playing the under after both teams participated in joint practices. Just like the Patriots/Raiders game last night. Good luck.
Today: 2-3/YTD: 13-15, -2.38
Rams/Bengals under 37.5 (-110), 1*
Colts -3.5 (-110), 1*
Bears/Browns over 41.5 (-110), 1*
Bucs/Colts over 41.5 (-110), 1*
Vikings pk (-110), 1*
Another missed field goal off the upright by Cairo Santos does me in. Maybe he got it out of his system for the season lol. The Bears are going to be bad enough. They don’t need kicking problems.
Rams/Bengals under 37.5 (-110), 1*
Colts -3.5 (-110), 1*
Bears/Browns over 41.5 (-110), 1*
Bucs/Colts over 41.5 (-110), 1*
Vikings pk (-110), 1*
Another missed field goal off the upright by Cairo Santos does me in. Maybe he got it out of his system for the season lol. The Bears are going to be bad enough. They don’t need kicking problems.
August 28th
Jets/Giants under 38.5 (-115), 1*
Steelers -6 (-110), 2*
Under 38 is fine for the Giants game too. Fortunately for me, one of the books I have access to is still hanging 38.5.
The Steelers have three quarterbacks who should all be motivated to show what they can do. Goff isn't playing for Detroit today. It has been a pretty good week for home teams and I think the Steelers get a comfortable win against the Lions.
GL!
Jets/Giants under 38.5 (-115), 1*
Steelers -6 (-110), 2*
Under 38 is fine for the Giants game too. Fortunately for me, one of the books I have access to is still hanging 38.5.
The Steelers have three quarterbacks who should all be motivated to show what they can do. Goff isn't playing for Detroit today. It has been a pretty good week for home teams and I think the Steelers get a comfortable win against the Lions.
GL!
Today: 0-1/YTD: 14-17, -3.73
September 11th
Falcons/Saints over 42.5 (-110), 2*
Bears +7 (-110), 2*
Eagles -3.5 (-114), 2*
Texans +7.5 (-114), 2*
Raiders +3.5 (-110), 2*
September 12th
Seahawks 1H +3.5 (-110), 2*
There are a couple other games I am considering for Sunday. Everyone is on Miami because New England didn’t look good in the pre-season. These two teams are even in my eyes and getting over a field goal as a divisional dog is pretty enticing.
I also am thinking about putting Minnesota in a teaser with another team. I almost teased them with the Rams, glad I passed.
I know Denver is a popular pre-season team, but the Seahawks are a numbers play for me. Dogs on Monday Night Football have covered over 60% of the time in the first half over the last few years. I don’t have the exact numbers off the top of my head, but the stats are there to back it up if you want to go back and take a look. I think Seattle is going to hang around in this game and I will look to take +7 for the full game if it reappears.
I’m betting on some mediocre teams in week one, but week one always has surprises and the fact that there isn’t a spread above -7.5 tells me we are in store for some upsets this weekend. Remember the Jaguars led by Urban Meyer upset the Colts in week 1 of last season as a double digit underdog. GL!
September 11th
Falcons/Saints over 42.5 (-110), 2*
Bears +7 (-110), 2*
Eagles -3.5 (-114), 2*
Texans +7.5 (-114), 2*
Raiders +3.5 (-110), 2*
September 12th
Seahawks 1H +3.5 (-110), 2*
There are a couple other games I am considering for Sunday. Everyone is on Miami because New England didn’t look good in the pre-season. These two teams are even in my eyes and getting over a field goal as a divisional dog is pretty enticing.
I also am thinking about putting Minnesota in a teaser with another team. I almost teased them with the Rams, glad I passed.
I know Denver is a popular pre-season team, but the Seahawks are a numbers play for me. Dogs on Monday Night Football have covered over 60% of the time in the first half over the last few years. I don’t have the exact numbers off the top of my head, but the stats are there to back it up if you want to go back and take a look. I think Seattle is going to hang around in this game and I will look to take +7 for the full game if it reappears.
I’m betting on some mediocre teams in week one, but week one always has surprises and the fact that there isn’t a spread above -7.5 tells me we are in store for some upsets this weekend. Remember the Jaguars led by Urban Meyer upset the Colts in week 1 of last season as a double digit underdog. GL!
Futures
Cardinals under 8.5 wins (-110), 2*
If the Cardinals are a 6.5 point dog at home to KC in week 1 and the market agrees with that, then I have to bet under 8.5 wins on Arizona. So I did. That is the same spread as the Ravens @ the Jets, 49ers @ Chicago and Denver @ Seattle. The Texans are a 7 point home dog against Indy. Think of how we view the Bears, Seahawks, Jets and Texans. Look at what their win totals are in the market. Their opponents today are all of similar skill making this a fair comparison from that aspect as well. I also am factoring in Hopkins being out for the first six games this season. The division still has the 49ers and Rams who I expect to make the playoffs or at least be over .500. This under makes a lot of sense to me.
Cardinals under 8.5 wins (-110), 2*
If the Cardinals are a 6.5 point dog at home to KC in week 1 and the market agrees with that, then I have to bet under 8.5 wins on Arizona. So I did. That is the same spread as the Ravens @ the Jets, 49ers @ Chicago and Denver @ Seattle. The Texans are a 7 point home dog against Indy. Think of how we view the Bears, Seahawks, Jets and Texans. Look at what their win totals are in the market. Their opponents today are all of similar skill making this a fair comparison from that aspect as well. I also am factoring in Hopkins being out for the first six games this season. The division still has the 49ers and Rams who I expect to make the playoffs or at least be over .500. This under makes a lot of sense to me.
Yesterday: 4-3/YTD: 18-20, -2.21
September 12th
Seahawks 1H +3.5 (-110), 2*
Seahawks +6.5 (-105), 2*
Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+140), 1*
Noah Fant Anytime TD (+340), 1*
I posted the first half bet on Friday. Adding the other three. Week 1 is wacky, I think Seattle is live tonight. Good luck!
September 12th
Seahawks 1H +3.5 (-110), 2*
Seahawks +6.5 (-105), 2*
Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+140), 1*
Noah Fant Anytime TD (+340), 1*
I posted the first half bet on Friday. Adding the other three. Week 1 is wacky, I think Seattle is live tonight. Good luck!
September 15th
Chargers/Chiefs under 53.5 (-110), 2*
Smith-Schuster Anytime TD (+160), 1*
I lean Chargers plus the points, but no play. Short week, these teams know each other well. I could see the Chargers looking to slow things down and be more methodical, especially without Keenan Allen. I wish I bet it when the total was 54, but I like 53 or 53.5.
Also, make sure you shop the best number for touchdown props. You should always look for the best number if possible, but it is very important with TD props. Juju is +130 and one book I have access to and +160 at another as an example. Good luck!
Chargers/Chiefs under 53.5 (-110), 2*
Smith-Schuster Anytime TD (+160), 1*
I lean Chargers plus the points, but no play. Short week, these teams know each other well. I could see the Chargers looking to slow things down and be more methodical, especially without Keenan Allen. I wish I bet it when the total was 54, but I like 53 or 53.5.
Also, make sure you shop the best number for touchdown props. You should always look for the best number if possible, but it is very important with TD props. Juju is +130 and one book I have access to and +160 at another as an example. Good luck!
