BoSox 2023-2024 Season Long Thread

[BoSox04]

May 7th

Mavericks to win their series (+100), 2*

I think Dallas is the better team. I expect them to win one of the first two games in this series. Maybe they lose game one like they did to the Clippers and then bounce back in game 2. If that happens, I might add another unit on Dallas heading into game 2. OKC wasn’t tested against a mediocre Pelicans team without Zion. That will change in a big way this series.

 

[BoSox04]

May 7th

Evan Mobley over 2.5 assists (+100), 1*
Chet Holmgren over 8.5 rebounds (-120), 1*

 

[BoSox04]

Cavaliers +12.5 (-110), 1*
Celtics to win in six games (+500), 1*

I think this spread should be a little lower at first. This is roughly what the spread was against Miami and the Heat didn’t have Butler or Rozier. I know Cleveland doesn’t have Allen tonight, but the Celtics don’t have Porzingis and he is the better player between the two. I think Cleveland is going to win a game or two. Maybe they have a big shooting performance like the Heat did in game 2. Mitchell is certainly capable of closing out a win at home in a close game. Boston has not been the type of team to sweep inferior opponents. It took them five last series. It took them six games against Atlanta last year. There is no way Boston loses this series which is why I’m not playing over 5.5 games. I like to make that type of bet when I think both teams have a chance to win the series. But I think this goes five or six and the odds are much better for a six game series.

The above bet on Mobley should have odds of +110. Small typo there. GL

 

[BoSox04]

Yesterday: 1-2/YTD: 298-250, +25.09

May 8th

Donte Divencenzo over 17.5 points (-125), 1*
Jalen Brunson under 37.5 points (-115), 1*

I know that Hartenstein has been going over his assists prop most nights. The number is up to 3.5 now. I am going to sit that one out and see if he can get 4+ again tonight. With the Brunson under, I am just playing the percentages. To go over, he has to be excellent for the whole game. He has been excellent for the majority of the playoffs, but there will be regression. He will be guarded differently. He will have a bad shooting night. Other guys will step up and he will have to do less. I know this bet will be live in the fourth quarter and I really think he is due for a more typical 30 point game.

 

[BoSox04]

Today: 2-0/YTD: 300-250, +27.09

Much needed sweep for me, thanks in large part to Brunson missing a big chunk of the first half. Glad I didn’t play the regression angle on Hartenstein’s assists. I would have preferred if the Pacers had won for my future. Still, the Pacers just need to win two, which they are capable of doing at home. Particularly, if Anunoby is out.