In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday's CFP National Championship.
7:30 p.m. ET: Washington vs Michigan (-4.5, 56.5)
This game will be played at NRG Stadium, home of the Houston Texans.
Washington (14-0) is ranked 2nd and just upset Texas 37-31 in the CFP semifinals, winning outright as 3.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Michigan (14-0) is ranked 1st and just outlasted Alabama 27-20 in overtime in the semifinals, covering as 2.5-point favorites.
This line opened with Michigan listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. Throughout the week, we've seen Michigan move from -3.5 to -4.5. Over the weekend, Michigan briefly rose to as high as -5.5, at which point some Washington buyback brought the line back down to -4.5. Essentially, we've been sitting at Michigan -4.5 for much of the week. Currently 46% of bets and 50% of money is laying the points with the Wolverines, indicating a modest "low bets, higher dollars" sharp contrarian bet split.
The next move is critical, especially now that it's game day. This is when the limits are raised and the biggest bets come in. If we see Michigan move to -5 across the board, that will indicate further Wolverines sharp action. If we see the line fall back down toward -4, that will be a good sign for Wolverine dog backers.
Washington has been fantastic when getting points, going a perfect 5-0 straight up and ATS as a dog under head coach Kalen DeBoer. Bowl dogs of +3.5 or more went 18-13 ATS (58%) this postseason and 36-25 ATS (59%) over the past two postseasons. Since switching the current playoff format, dogs have gone 5-3 ATS (62%) in the National Championship game.
Washington has value as a "dog who can score," averaging roughly 39 PPG. Pros lean on dogs who can put up points thereby keeping pace or opening the opportunity for a backdoor cover. The Huskies also love the underdog role, as several players have points out how the "disrespect" factor motivates them to prove everyone wrong and play their best.
Sharps have also leaned over, raising the total from 55 to 56.5. Currently 62% of bets and 64% of money is sweating the over.
Player Prop to Consider: Jack Westover Over 25.5 receiving yards (-120). This prop is juiced to the over, signaling over liability. Westover, the Huskies' tight end, caught six passes for 59 yards against Texas in the semifinal. With a lot of attention paid to the Huskies trio of top wideouts, Westover is likely to get favorable matchups in the passing game.
7:30 p.m. ET: Washington vs Michigan (-4.5, 56.5)
This game will be played at NRG Stadium, home of the Houston Texans.
Washington (14-0) is ranked 2nd and just upset Texas 37-31 in the CFP semifinals, winning outright as 3.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Michigan (14-0) is ranked 1st and just outlasted Alabama 27-20 in overtime in the semifinals, covering as 2.5-point favorites.
This line opened with Michigan listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. Throughout the week, we've seen Michigan move from -3.5 to -4.5. Over the weekend, Michigan briefly rose to as high as -5.5, at which point some Washington buyback brought the line back down to -4.5. Essentially, we've been sitting at Michigan -4.5 for much of the week. Currently 46% of bets and 50% of money is laying the points with the Wolverines, indicating a modest "low bets, higher dollars" sharp contrarian bet split.
The next move is critical, especially now that it's game day. This is when the limits are raised and the biggest bets come in. If we see Michigan move to -5 across the board, that will indicate further Wolverines sharp action. If we see the line fall back down toward -4, that will be a good sign for Wolverine dog backers.
Washington has been fantastic when getting points, going a perfect 5-0 straight up and ATS as a dog under head coach Kalen DeBoer. Bowl dogs of +3.5 or more went 18-13 ATS (58%) this postseason and 36-25 ATS (59%) over the past two postseasons. Since switching the current playoff format, dogs have gone 5-3 ATS (62%) in the National Championship game.
Washington has value as a "dog who can score," averaging roughly 39 PPG. Pros lean on dogs who can put up points thereby keeping pace or opening the opportunity for a backdoor cover. The Huskies also love the underdog role, as several players have points out how the "disrespect" factor motivates them to prove everyone wrong and play their best.
Sharps have also leaned over, raising the total from 55 to 56.5. Currently 62% of bets and 64% of money is sweating the over.
Player Prop to Consider: Jack Westover Over 25.5 receiving yards (-120). This prop is juiced to the over, signaling over liability. Westover, the Huskies' tight end, caught six passes for 59 yards against Texas in the semifinal. With a lot of attention paid to the Huskies trio of top wideouts, Westover is likely to get favorable matchups in the passing game.
