5 p.m. ET: Alabama vs Michigan (-1.5, 45.5)
Alabama (12-1) is ranked 4th and just upset Georgia 27-24 in the SEC Championship game, winning outright as 5.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Michigan (13-0) is ranked first and just shutout Iowa 26-0 in the Big Ten Championship, covering as 21.5-point favorites. This line opened with Michigan listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 65% of bets are taking the points with Alabama. However, despite this lopsided betting toward Alabama the line hasn't budged off Michigan -1.5. In fact, it has even risen to Michigan -2 at some shops. Normally, if a team is getting two-thirds of bets you would see this line inch down toward a pick'em or maybe even hop the fence to make Alabama a short favorite. However, we haven't seen that take place. The fact that the line hasn't moved despite heavy public betting on Alabama signals a sharp line freeze on Michigan, with pros reluctant to drop the number for fear of giving out a better price to contrarian Michigan backers. Reading between the lines, pros seem to fading the trendy dog Crimson Tide and instead backing the unpopular favorite Wolverines. Michigan is only receiving 35% of bets in one of the most heavily bet games of the year, giving the Wolverines elevated "bet against the public" value. Michigan is -125 on the moneyline.
8:45 p.m. ET: Texas (-4, 63.5) vs Washington
Texas (12-1) is ranked 3rd and just crushed Oklahoma State 49-21 in the Big 12 Championship game, easily covering as 14.5-point favorites. On the other hand, Washington (13-0) is ranked 3rd and just edged Oregon 34-31 in the Pac-12 Championship game, winning outright as 9.5-point dogs. This line opened with Texas listed as a 4-point neutral site favorite. Throughout the month, anytime this line has crept up to Texas -4.5 we've seen sharp buyback on Washington plus the hook, dropping it back down to 4. Over the past 24-48 hours, we've even seen some shops flirt at dropping down to Texas -3.5. This signals some sneaky liability on Washington plus the points. The Huskies are receiving 58% of bets and 60% of money, signaling modest public support but also respected smart money. Washington has value as a "dog who can score," as they're averaging roughly 39 PPG, thereby keeping pace or opening up the possibility of a backdoor cover.
Washington also has a motivational edge, as they are playing the "disrespect" card knowing they are the underdog. Earlier this week, Washington edge rusher Bralen Trice told reporters "I think it's crazy... just the level of disrespect we get, I can't really understand it, but it helps us because it makes us have our backs against the wall... ready to play even harder because we are the underdogs." We saw the Ravens play this "disrespect" card against the 49ers in Week 16. Baltimore was the dog and the players used it as a chip on their shoulder. Baltimore blew out San Francisco 33-19.
Alabama (12-1) is ranked 4th and just upset Georgia 27-24 in the SEC Championship game, winning outright as 5.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Michigan (13-0) is ranked first and just shutout Iowa 26-0 in the Big Ten Championship, covering as 21.5-point favorites. This line opened with Michigan listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 65% of bets are taking the points with Alabama. However, despite this lopsided betting toward Alabama the line hasn't budged off Michigan -1.5. In fact, it has even risen to Michigan -2 at some shops. Normally, if a team is getting two-thirds of bets you would see this line inch down toward a pick'em or maybe even hop the fence to make Alabama a short favorite. However, we haven't seen that take place. The fact that the line hasn't moved despite heavy public betting on Alabama signals a sharp line freeze on Michigan, with pros reluctant to drop the number for fear of giving out a better price to contrarian Michigan backers. Reading between the lines, pros seem to fading the trendy dog Crimson Tide and instead backing the unpopular favorite Wolverines. Michigan is only receiving 35% of bets in one of the most heavily bet games of the year, giving the Wolverines elevated "bet against the public" value. Michigan is -125 on the moneyline.
8:45 p.m. ET: Texas (-4, 63.5) vs Washington
Texas (12-1) is ranked 3rd and just crushed Oklahoma State 49-21 in the Big 12 Championship game, easily covering as 14.5-point favorites. On the other hand, Washington (13-0) is ranked 3rd and just edged Oregon 34-31 in the Pac-12 Championship game, winning outright as 9.5-point dogs. This line opened with Texas listed as a 4-point neutral site favorite. Throughout the month, anytime this line has crept up to Texas -4.5 we've seen sharp buyback on Washington plus the hook, dropping it back down to 4. Over the past 24-48 hours, we've even seen some shops flirt at dropping down to Texas -3.5. This signals some sneaky liability on Washington plus the points. The Huskies are receiving 58% of bets and 60% of money, signaling modest public support but also respected smart money. Washington has value as a "dog who can score," as they're averaging roughly 39 PPG, thereby keeping pace or opening up the possibility of a backdoor cover.
Washington also has a motivational edge, as they are playing the "disrespect" card knowing they are the underdog. Earlier this week, Washington edge rusher Bralen Trice told reporters "I think it's crazy... just the level of disrespect we get, I can't really understand it, but it helps us because it makes us have our backs against the wall... ready to play even harder because we are the underdogs." We saw the Ravens play this "disrespect" card against the 49ers in Week 16. Baltimore was the dog and the players used it as a chip on their shoulder. Baltimore blew out San Francisco 33-19.
