A few here are making a TON of $$ with LITTLE risk!!

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drunkguy said:
scalping anything out at SIA is a major mistake

That's a matter of opinion, for example in today's conference finals the SIA money line side was on Denver and Seattle. So I suppose it was a mistake taking these two positions?
 

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Drunkguy has somewhat of a point. SIA will pay you though, and it is not THAT difficult to make a new name or 2, or 3, or 4, (especially with 120 frat brothers willing to signup if I flip them a 20..) :103631605

So, if you have several SIA accounts (which I am not admitting to), you could have made some easy coin today.
 

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Look no one has stated something very important here, something I have referred to many times before. Your time is precious and should come at a cost. I could be a scalper and make some money, but highly doubtful it would match what I make in my day job. I suspect for many on here that is also the case. There is many dollars out there to be made, but they must be shared and they disappear quick.

You know sometimes its funny what you read on here about people saying its a beautiful day outside, but they are on here or sweating out games. It may seem crazy, but that is the life you lead if you are out working small edges for a living. Be prepared to work your butt off for hours on end if this is something you ever decide to pursue. Be sure you love doing this for a profit and you don't have better options to pursue. For a few it might make sense, but I suspect for the mass majority it won't. In any case don't approach this as "can it be done?", but instead "should it be done?"
 

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WildBill said:
Look no one has stated something very important here, something I have referred to many times before. Your time is precious and should come at a cost. I could be a scalper and make some money, but highly doubtful it would match what I make in my day job. I suspect for many on here that is also the case. There is many dollars out there to be made, but they must be shared and they disappear quick.

You know sometimes its funny what you read on here about people saying its a beautiful day outside, but they are on here or sweating out games. It may seem crazy, but that is the life you lead if you are out working small edges for a living. Be prepared to work your butt off for hours on end if this is something you ever decide to pursue. Be sure you love doing this for a profit and you don't have better options to pursue. For a few it might make sense, but I suspect for the mass majority it won't. In any case don't approach this as "can it be done?", but instead "should it be done?"

Truly outstanding post Wild Bill.
 

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drunkguy said:
scalping anything out at SIA is a major mistake

particularly when you are playing the other side at a rock solid book like Pinny

you have a massively good bet on the SIA line and you are throwing it away by betting into a negative expectation bet at Pinny.

All in the name of an 8 cent scalp :icon_conf



then to top it off you will get booted from SIA after winning too much, but 90% of those "winnings" went straight into Pinnacle's pocket leaving you with the scraps


use your heads people

Overall, certainly not bad advice.

Will say this, and realize it is a very small sample and an abnormality, but for the past two months SIA has kicked Pinnys butt on the scalps/middles that I have played between the two.
 

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cdg333 said:
would this idea of scapling be easiest in baseball?

I believe it is, but to some, perhaps not.

When one thinks of scalping, BASEBALL is what comes to mind to most individuals.
 

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Woody0 said:
That's a matter of opinion, for example in today's conference finals the SIA money line side was on Denver and Seattle. So I suppose it was a mistake taking these two positions?


NOT a mistake takinjg those 2 positions prices were very depressed compare to the overall market or "fair value"


big mistake scalping them off into a "fair line" at one of the big shops



Fish is right, SIA has taken a lot of money on these scalps, that is due to 58% favorites covering this season and nothing else. Their lines are still wrong though


Risk is proportional to reward, scalping shit lines vs Pinny lines, you are transferring the risk to Pinny, and when they absorb that risk they are also absorbing some of your profits
 

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jeffksu said:
the stations where we play...together my wife and i have over $6,000.00 in comps...for any of their restuarants...gift shops etc...we also both smoke so all of our cigs are free..we get 3 packs per day...also stations has this game within a game using your player's card...as long as your player's card is inserted in the machine...it's called jumbo jackpot.....it starts at $100,000.00 and it must hit before it gets to $150,000.00...it is a random thing and if you have your player's card in the machine when it hits you also win 50.00 free bucks..not much but hey when you are playing 50. is 50....well, to make a long story short..i hit the jumbo jackpot a while back for $143,120.95...without a winning hand on the machine...it is a random thing that just locks your machine up and they come and pay you just as though you win a jackpot...they also gave 100,000 points for my player's card a $1,000. in voucher's for the steak house...needless to say it was a very good day...then the following week i hit 3 royal flushes for $4,000. each on the same machine in 45 minutes....i'm trying to get my taxes together as we speak...i have $192,000 of w-2's...just from the casino's this year....that's it in a nut shell....jeffksu

Thanks for the answer to my questions Jeff. I remember talking to you about this at our table at the bash last fall.
 

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drunkguy said:
Risk is proportional to reward, scalping shit lines vs Pinny lines, you are transferring the risk to Pinny, and when they absorb that risk they are also absorbing some of your profits

...in the long run yes, we agree.
 

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drunkguy said:
NOT a mistake takinjg those 2 positions prices were very depressed compare to the overall market or "fair value"


big mistake scalping them off into a "fair line" at one of the big shops



Fish is right, SIA has taken a lot of money on these scalps, that is due to 58% favorites covering this season and nothing else. Their lines are still wrong though


Risk is proportional to reward, scalping shit lines vs Pinny lines, you are transferring the risk to Pinny, and when they absorb that risk they are also absorbing some of your profits

That's all very nice and academic and theoretical, but I'm not sure there can't be value on both sides if you time it right and shop both ways. At least that what's my Pinnacle results keep telling me.
 
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Fish is old school, and this is just one piece of the pie. If you are in this business long enough many opportunities pop up. Although our personalities are a huge contrast, we have shared many gimme's throughout our careers. They come and go like styles. Probably one of our best was bank slots and video poker. Where Fish would take the no risk 1/2 shot, I would pay to double the odds of the shot. In generic terms, he is low risk, steady reward, I am high risk, huge rewards. That's where I do futures, in every sport.

Wild Bill does point out the bread of the matter, as one can not live on it alone, and have any kind of existance. If you do some scalping, some middling, some bonus collecting and some betting, the more rounded portfolio will diversify risk and flatten out the peaks and valleys. Not too much volatility. If you just scalp, you are shopping at Walmart. If you do it all, Nordstroms. One hindrance I see with SIA/Pinny scalps is that is only a one way street, as long as Pinny is paying. If it flips to SIA pays, and you are bangin them for limits, they will end the show faster than you can say recreational player. There is a lot of time invested grinding for that 1-5%, and a lot of people racing you to it. Sometimes you get that 20-1 hit, but more often than not, you are just getting the 1% Plus it is just not wide open like it was 5 years ago. You see the same old tired topics, How do you middle, how do you scalp? That is like asking, how do you count cards in a single deck? The game is not what it used to be. Also, if you excel at it, you are asked to leave. Constant winners are not welcome. It's not how you play the game but if you win or lose, you can choose, win or lose.


Best Wishes...OF :103631605
 

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D2bets said:
That's all very nice and academic and theoretical, but I'm not sure there can't be value on both sides if you time it right and shop both ways. At least that what's my Pinnacle results keep telling me.

how do you know there was value on both sides?

you will win at both shops, sure, that doesn't mean anything though

have you looked at your results in light of how much money you would have made had you only bet into the "weak" line?
 

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Budworth22 said:
Drunkguy has somewhat of a point. SIA will pay you though, and it is not THAT difficult to make a new name or 2, or 3, or 4, (especially with 120 frat brothers willing to signup if I flip them a 20..) :103631605

So, if you have several SIA accounts (which I am not admitting to), you could have made some easy coin today.


you may want to check some old threads here

SIA will give you the runaround, especially if they think you are circumventing their policies

you better have unique IPs for every account, different addresses, etc,etc

wait until you have 10k in SIA in a bogus account (only $500 of which is actual profit since you lost the rest on the other end of your scalps)

Then try sweating it out while they decide if they are going to pay you the 10k or not. It won't be fun.

there is some history with SIA, and there is always some risk at the shops you are finding the good end of these scalps at

just something to keep in mind
 

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drunkguy said:
how do you know there was value on both sides?

you will win at both shops, sure, that doesn't mean anything though

have you looked at your results in light of how much money you would have made had you only bet into the "weak" line?

Ummmm, think about what you just said.

Please explain how Line 2 and Line 3 can coexist?
 

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i mean you will win some games at shop A and some games at shop B, it will not be all one-sided. The weak line is gonna win out sometimes. Maybe a lot of times like this NFL season where playing into the inflated lines at SIA would have bankrupted you.
 

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From what you said, if I only bet at the "weak" shop then I'd never bet at Pinnacle. If I never bet at Pinnacle then I wouldn't have the profits that I win there, alebit smaller than at the weak shops. I'd rather win more than less. Not to mention that it allows you to bet size to the max at the weak shop because of the number on the other side, which you might not otherwise do depending on bankroll.
 
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drunkguy said:
you may want to check some old threads here

SIA will give you the runaround, especially if they think you are circumventing their policies

you better have unique IPs for every account, different addresses, etc,etc

wait until you have 10k in SIA in a bogus account (only $500 of which is actual profit since you lost the rest on the other end of your scalps)

Then try sweating it out while they decide if they are going to pay you the 10k or not. It won't be fun.

there is some history with SIA, and there is always some risk at the shops you are finding the good end of these scalps at

just something to keep in mind

Exactly, I call them "Good time shops". They are a good time until the tide turns against them and they get whacked heavy on those shaded lines. And the majority of other players there are doing the same thing. This magic formula of great riches only works as long as the solid shop is paying. I used to work the too good to be true lines at Royal. I was lucky to be paid after they went on a bad time run. This is a short term exercise, as soon as the bet365, Bodog, SIA, VIP or whomever decides it was fun collecting, but no fun paying, the show abruptly ends. And, part of that risk, is getting that earn out of there. That is a very big disclaimer.

Put a big * by that LITTLE risk.


Best Wishes...OF :cryingcry
 

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