2023 NCAA FOOTBALL BEST BETS AND OPINIONS & NEWS AND NOTES!

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Thursday’s 6-pack:
— 76ers 127, Minnesota 113- Joel Embiid had 51 points, 12 rebounds.
— Knicks 121, Nets 102- 16-11 Knicks are off to their best start since 2013.
— Nuggets 113, Raptors 104- Jokic had 31 points, 15 rebounds.
— Bulls 124, Lakers 108- Lakers are 1-4 since they won the IST.
— Cavaliers 124, Utah 116- Utah State alum Merrill scored 27 off bench.
— Heat 115, Orlando 106- Miami made 15 of 29 shots behind the arc.

Quote of the Day
“We feel a little disrespected by that. I feel like we are the best team in the league, and we have an opportunity in front of the country to show it.”
Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton, on the 49ers being favored over Baltimore this week

Thursday’s quiz
Who is the all-time leader in passing yardage for the Washington Redskins/Commanders?

Wednesday’s quiz
2006/2007 was last time a college basketball team won consecutive national titles, when Billy Donovan’s Florida team won both tournaments.

Tuesday’s quiz
The Sun Bowl college football game is played in El Paso, TX every year.

*****************************************

Thursday’s Den: College basketball info……..

The way college basketball is now, with so many transfers happening, it is still kind of early, but here is some of what we’ve learned so far this season.

— Big X
6 of 14 teams are in kenpom.com Top 20
Houston/BYU, newcomers to the Big X, are highest-rated teams right now.
Houston has the best eFG% defense in the country.
Oklahoma State (6-5), West Virginia (4-6) have regressed.

— SEC
5 of 14 teams are in the top 25.
Tennessee is 8-3, but they’ve played the #12 schedule, a tough schedule.
Ole Miss is 11-0, but they’ve played schedule #262.
Vanderbilt is 4-7; they’re 65-76 in 4+ years under Jerry Stackhouse, 24-46 in SEC games. Five years ago, Vandy was off to a 4-0 start under Bryce Drew, but their best player (Darius Garland) got hurt, missed the rest of the season, and the Commodores went in the ashcan, going 9-23- they fired Drew.
Garland is now a productive player in the NBA, while Drew has moved on to Grand Canyon in the WAC, where he has a 73-28 record coaching the Antelopes. I’m thinking the administration at Vanderbilt screwed up- they should’ve kept Drew as coach.

— Big 14
Only have three teams rated in top 20.
Michigan State is struggling at 6-5.
Zach Edey must have a great NIL deal for him to return to Purdue this season. Boilers have five top 20 wins, but lost conference opener at Northwestern. Purdue is shooting 40.3% on the arc; what will they shoot in March, when the heat is on?

— Pac-12
In its last season, Pac-12 is 0-5 SU against the Mountain West; no bueno.
Arizona/Colorado are only Pac-12 teams rated in top 30.
UCLA is 5-5, losing five of last six D-I games; there are rumors about Mick Cronin’s interest in the Louisville job, when that opens up.
Arizona has eight foreign players on its roster, UCLA has seven.
Meanwhile, Oregon State/Washington State are joining the WCC in basketball for the next two seasons.

— ACC
Duke, Clemson, North Carolina are only teams rated in top 25.
Duke had a quality neutral court win over Baylor Wednesday.
Syracuse is 8-3 with a 20-point win over Oregon, but all three Orange losses were by 17+ points; they’re forcing turnovers 21.7% of time, a marked improvement over recent years.

— Teams in country with best continuity:
Columbia- Ivy League
Drexel- CAA
Florida Atlantic- AAC
Marquette- Big East
Cal-Davis- Big West

— Teams in country with most experience:
St Bonaventure- A-15
Washington- Pac-12
TCU- Big X
North Carolina- ACC
St John’s- Big East

— OVC
Morehead State is 8-4, the only OVC team in the top 200; Tuesday night at Indiana, they led the Hoosiers by 15 with 8:58 left, but lost 69-68. Morehead looks like one of those dangerous 14-seeds we’ll be talking about in March.

— Word of the Day- Grinch- a person who is unfriendly, a killjoy.

— Big East
Seton Hall upset UConn Wednesday, Providence upset Marquette Tuesday.
Villanova just beat Creighton in overtime, another upset.
Rick Pitino is going to make waves with St John’s, just not sure it’ll be this year.
Jay Wright retired in the spring of 2022, after a 30-8 season. In his last nine years at Villanova, Wildcats went 265-53, 130-31 in Big East games.
Since Wright left, Villanova is 25-21, 11-10 in Big East games.

— Mountain West
Three best teams appear to be Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State.
Rams/Lobos both have one loss; both losses were against Saint Mary’s.
Like we said before, Mountain West is 5-0 SU against the Pac-12 this season.
Right now, MW is ranked as the #7 league; this would be the third year in a row Mountain West is in the top 7- 2013 was the last time before that.

— Atlantic 15
9-2 Dayton is the only team rated in the top 70.
Duquesne is 9-2; their coach is Keith Dambrot, who was Lebron James’ high school coach.
St Joe’s is 9-2, but against schedule #325; they lost to Texas A&M-Commerce.
A-15 got only one team in NCAA’s LY (VCU), could be headed that way again.

— AAC
14 teams in this league now; they’ve reshuffled more than any league this year.
FAU is legit good; they were in Final Four last year, have whole team back, are 9-2 now.
Memphis is 9-2, with seven top 100 wins (schedule #10)
Other than FAU/Memphis, SMU, North Texas, Tulane appear to be AAC contenders.

— Missouri Valley
Indiana State/Drake are both 11-1, the Valley’s only top 100 teams.
Drake has played schedule #301, Indiana State #264. Sycamores are shooting 61.2% inside the arc, 41.4% on the arc- they have the best eFG% in the whole country.
Evansville is 10-2 against schedule #318; the last five years, Evanaville was 40-111, so a great rebuilding job being done by David Ragland. They did lose their only top 100 game by 41 at BYU, but 10-2 is 10-2.
Murray State is 3-8; they’ve had only one losing season since 1997.

— WCC
Right now, WCC is 5-14 against the Mountain West
7-6 against the Pac-12
0-5 against the WAC
3-4 against the Big Sky,
In other words, the WCC is down; losing BYU hurt, especially this year, because BYU is really good. Saint Mary’s is a disappointing 7-5, but they’ve played better recently. Gonzaga is 8-3, 3-3 against top 100 teams.
It’ll be interesting next year, when Oregon State/Washington State join the WCC.
— Ivy League
Princeton is 10-1, with three top 100 wins; KenPom has them at #44.
Yale, Cornell appear to be the teams best poised to upset Princeton in the Ivy tournament.

— Conference USA
League looks like a 3-way battle between Liberty, Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky.
This league has teams in Virginia, Florida, Louisiana, New Mexico; lot of travel.

— Other mid-majors we’ve got our eye on:

Grand Canyon, WAC- Antelopes are 9-1, with wins over San Diego State, Liberty

James Madison, Sun Belt- 11-0 Dukes opened season with OT wins at Michigan State/Kent State and they still haven’t lost. JMU has #27 eFG% in country; they’re forcing turnovers 21.8% of the time (#29).

Western Carolina, SoCon- Catamounts have Power 5 wins at Notre Dame, Vandy; WCU has been in the NCAA’s one time- they were a 16-seed in 1996, lost 73-71 to #1-seed Purdue.
Western Carolina also made the first 3-point shot in NCAA history, on November 29, 1980. Ronnie Carr made the shot.

Cal-Irvine, Big West- Anteaters haven’t been in NCAAs since 2019, when they upset Kansas State in a 4-13 game. Irvine always defends well; their subs are playing 8th most minutes in country, so they’ve got good depth.

Vermont, America East- Catamounts have been in four of last six NCAA Tournaments; they have wins over Charleston, Yale this season.

McNeese State, Southland- Will Wade has never had a losing season as a coach, whether at VCU, LSU or Chattanooga; his first team at McNeese is 10-2, shooting 41% on the arc, while playing a slow (#348) pace.
Joe Dumars’ alma mater hasn’t been to the NCAA’s since 2002; could this be their year?
 

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NCAAF
Weather Report

Bowl Season

December 21


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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 23

Birmingham Bowl
Troy
(-7.5) vs Duke
Troy (11-2)
— Troy won its last ten games (8-1 ATS last nine).
— Trojans HC quit, moved on to Tulane.
— Trojans were held to 13-14 points in their two losses.
— under Sumrall, Trojans were 6-5 ATS as a favorite (1-2 TY).
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 88 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB had 28 career starts coming into this year.
— Last four games, Troy scored 40 points/game.
— Last seven games. Trojans are +9 in turnovers.
— Troy’s last four games went over the total.
— Troy won/covered its last five bowls, dating back to 2010.
— Sun Belt favorites are 9-6 ATS out of conference.


Duke (7-5)
— QB bolted to Notre Dame, coach bolted to Texas A&M.
— Duke is 3-5 in last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— Duke allowed 21 or less points in its wins, 31.8 ppg in losses.
— Duke is 1-3 TY in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Blue Devils are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as an underdog (2-3 TY)
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 122 starts back on offensive line, with 4 starters back
— freshman backup QB threw 137 passes TY (8 TD, 3 INT)
— Blue Devils are 2-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— over is 5-1 in their last six games.
— Duke won/covered its last four bowls; last bowl loss was in 2014.
— ACC underdogs are 7-10 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met since 2014.
— Favorites are 6-3 ATS in last nine Birmingham Bowls.
— average total in this bowl the last six years: 64.0.
— since 2019, Sun Belt teams are 12-7 ATS vs ACC opponents.


Camellia Bowl
Arkansas State
(-1) vs Northern Illinois (@ Montgomery, AL)
Arkansas State (6-6)
— Red Wolves won 77-31 (Texas State), lost 72-0 (Ohio State).
— Arkansas State is 1-1 in games decided by less than 10 points.
— ASU is 5-2 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 29 starts back on offensive line; they added 4 transfers.
— freshman QB completed 58.8% of passes (15 TD’s, 6 INTs)
— ASU allowed 436+ TY in five of last seven games.
— Last four games, Red Wolves are +6 in turnovers.
— Butch Jones is 4-2 SU in bowl games.
— This is Arkansas State’s first bowl since 2019.
— Red Wolves are 2-3 SU in their last five bowls.


Northern Illinois (6-6)
— Huskies won five of last seven games, after a 1-4 start.
— NIU is 4-1 giving up 14 or fewer points, 2-5 giving up 20+ points.
— NIU is +7 in turnovers in its wins, minus-9 in its losses.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 117 starts back on offensive line; they’re supposed to be good.
— senior QB made 16 starts before this year.
— NIU is 4-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Under Hammock, NIU is 9-7 ATS in non-league games
— four of their last six games stayed under the total.
— NIU went to one bowl the last four years.
— Huskies lost their last seven bowls (1-4 ATS last five)
— MAC teams are 17-18 ATS this year, out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met since 2011.
— Favorites covered this bowl three of last four years.
— since 2015, Sun Belt teams are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— average total in this bowl the last five years: 49.2
— MAC squads are 13-9-1 ATS in last 23 games vs Sun Belt opponents.


Armed Forces Bowl
James Madison
(-3) vs Air Force (@ Fort Worth, TX)
James Madison (11-1)
— JMU’s only loss was 26-23 at home to App State Nov 18.
— Dukes have fun wins by 8 or fewer points.
— Dukes are 4-1 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— JMU’s coach has bolted to Indiana.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line- lot of experience.
— junior QB has completed 68.9% of his passes, thrown 32 TD’s, 9 INT’s.
— JMU is 22-10 ATS in last 32 games as a favorite.
— In September, JMU won 45-38 at Utah State of Mountain West
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
— This is James Madison’s first bowl.
— Sun Belt favorites are 9-6 ATS out of conference.


Air Force (8-4)
— Air Force lost its last four games, after an 8-0 start.
— Last four games, Falcons scored 15.5 ppg.
— Last four games, AF was minus-8 in turnovers.
— Seven of Air Force’s eight I-A wins are by 10+ points.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has thrown 62 passes, run ball 133 times.
— since 2015, Air Force is 16-8-1 ATS as an underdog (0-1 TY)
— since 2016, Flyboys are 20-11-1 ATS in non-league games.
— four of their last six games stayed under the total.
— Air Force won its last four bowl games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
— Falcons (+3.5) won this bowl 30-15 last year.
— Mountain West underdogs are 16-9 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— since 2017, service academies are 4-0 SU in this game.
— last seven years, underdogs are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— since 2016, Mountain West teams are 13-5-2 ATS vs Sun Belt squads.


Idaho Potato Bowl
Georgia State
vs Utah State (-1) (@ Boise, ID)
Georgia State (6-6)
— Panthers lost last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Georgia State allowed 42+ points in 4 of last 5 losses.
— Panthers scored 30+ points in five of their six wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 23 starts.
— Georgia State is 8-5-1 ATS in its last 14 non-league games.
— Panthers are 5-4-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Their last three games stayed under the total.
— Panthers won three of last four bowls, scoring 39-51 in last two.
— Sun Belt teams are 18-14 ATS out of conference.


Utah State (6-6)
— Aggies won last game 44-41 to become bowl eligible.
— Utah State won three of its last four games.
— Utah State is 23-16 SU in three years under Anderson.
— USU is 6-2 when it scores 32+ points, 0-4 if it doesn’t.
— Last two games, Aggies gave up 352/337 yards rushing.
— 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 32 starts back on offensive line; inexperienced.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— TY, Aggies are 3-6 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Utah State is 8-10 ATS in last 18 non-league games.
— last six games, Aggies are minus-7 in turnovers.
— over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
— Utah State is 3-2 SU in its last five bowl games.
— Mountain West teams are 20-13 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites are 4-2 ATS in last six Potato Bowls.
— since 2016, Mountain West teams are 13-5-2 ATS vs Sun Belt squads.


Mobile Bowl
Eastern Michigan
@ South Alabama (-16) (@ Mobile, AL)
Eastern Michigan (6-6)
— EMU won last two games, 30-27/24-11, to become bowl eligible.
— Eagles are 5-0 scoring 24+ points, 1-6 scoring less than 24.
— EMU is 1-5 SU/4-2 ATS on the road this year.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 58 starts back on offensive line; only two starters are back.
— soph QB Smith is completing 57.4% of passes, with 9 TD’s, 7 INT’s.
— EMU is 28-8 ATS last 36 games as a road underdog (4-2 TY).
— under Creighton, EMU is 30-13-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Eagles are 4-9 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— three of their last four games went over.
— Eagles are 22-16 SU last three years (32-61 from 2013-20).
— EMU won bowl game 41-27 LY, snapping 4-game bowl losing skid.
— MAC road underdogs are 15-12 ATS out of conference.


South Alabama (6-6)
— USA is 4-1 when it scores 33+ points, 2-5 when it doesn’t.
— Five of six Jaguar wins were by 18+ points.
— USA is 1-4 in games decided by 13 or less points.
— 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB had 13 career starts coming into this year.
— Jaguars lost SU twice as a double digit favorite TY (3-3 ATS).
— under Wommack, Jaguars are 8-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Four of Jaguars’ last five games stayed under the total.
— under Wommack, Jaguars are 6-8 ATS in non-conference games.
— South Alabama is 0-3 in bowl games (’14, ’16, last year)
— Sun Belt home favorites are 5-4 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites covered this bowl the last three years.
— MAC squads are 13-9-1 ATS in last 23 games vs Sun Belt opponents.
— This bowl is played in South Alabama’s stadium.


Las Vegas Bowl
Utah
(-7) vs Northwestern
Utah (8-4)
— Utah is 2-3 in its last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Utes are 7-0 when they allow 17 or less points, 1-4 if they allow more than 17.
— Utah allowed 32+ points in four of last six games.
— Utah is 11-7 ATS in last 18 games as a favorite (4-2 TY).
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; high expectations
— soph QB Barnes is completing 58.5% of passes (12 TD/9 INT)
— last 4+ years, Utes are 42-17 SU.
— Utah is 6-11-1 ATS in last 18 non-league games.
— Five of their last seven games went over.
— Utah lost last four bowls, after Whittingham started out 11-1 in bowls.
— Pac-12 favorites are 13-6 ATS out of conference.


Northwestern (7-5)
— Northwestern had off-field issues in off-season, has a new coach.
— Ex-coach Fitzgerald was 111-101 there, played there; big change
— Interim coach did so well, he is now the full-time coach.
— Wildcats won last three games to become bowl eligible.
— 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 27 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 11 games at Cincinnati last year.
— Northwestern covered its last six games (4-2 SU)
— Wildcats covered their last five tries as an underdog.
— Northwestern is 3-8-1 ATS in last 12 non-conference games.
— under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— This is Northwestern’s first bowl since 2020.
— Wildcats won their last four bowls (two as an underdog)


— Northwestern (+7) upset Utah 31-20 in 2018 Holiday Bowl.
— Favorite covered last four Las Vegas Bowls.
— since 2013, Pac-12 teams are 5-3 SU/4-4 ATS in this bowl.
— Pac-12 teams are 11-7 ATS in last 18 games vs Big 14 opponents.


Hawai’i Bowl
Coastal Carolina
vs San Jose State (-10)
Coastal Carolina (7-5)
— Coastal’s 4-year starting QB has bolted to NC State.
— Coastal lost last two games, 28-21/56-14.
— Chanticleers are 0-5 giving up 27+ points, 7-0 giving up less than 27.
— Coastal is 3-1 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Chanticleers are 11-4 ATS last 15 games as an underdog.
— 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 39 starts back on offensive line.
— backup QB has completed 62.9% of passes (4 TD’s, one INT)
— Coastal is 11-9 ATS in its last 20 non-league games.
— over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Coastal has played in bowls the last three years, their first three bowls.
— Coastal was 1-2 in those bowls, with average total of 80.3.
— Sun Belt underdogs are 9-10 ATS out of conference.


San Jose State (7-5)
— Spartans won their last six games, after a 1-5 start.
— San Jose allowed 35+ points in four of five losses.
— Spartans are bowl eligible for third time in four years.
— San Jose is 6-0 when they score 30+, 1-5 when they don’t.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 35 games, 23 at Hawai’i.
— Spartans are 4-1 ATS as a favorite TY.
— under Brennan, San Jose is 12-13 ATS in non-conference tilts.
— San Jose ran ball for 217+ yards in five of last six games.
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— San Jose made bowls two of last three years, but lost both.
— Mountain West favorites are 4-4 ATS out of conference.


— Underdogs won the last five Hawai’i Bowls SU.
— Mountain West teams are 4-2 ATS in last six Hawai’i Bowls.
— since 2016, Mountain West teams are 13-5-2 ATS vs Sun Belt squads.




NCAAF

Bowl Season


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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December 23

Arkansas State @ Northern Illinois

Arkansas State
Arkansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arkansas State is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 6 games

Troy @ Duke
Troy
Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Duke
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Duke's last 6 games
Duke is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games

Georgia State @ Utah State
Georgia State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia State's last 6 games
Georgia State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah State
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Utah State's last 11 games

James Madison @ Air Force
James Madison
James Madison is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
James Madison is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Air Force
Air Force is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Air Force's last 6 games

South Alabama @ Eastern Michigan
South Alabama
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Alabama's last 5 games
South Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Eastern Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 6 games

Utah @ Northwestern
Utah
Utah is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 7 games
Northwestern
Northwestern is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Northwestern is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Coastal Carolina @ San Jose State
Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Coastal Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
San Jose State
San Jose State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Jose State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games


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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 21

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
USF at SYR08:00 PMUSF +3.0
O 55.5
+500 +500
 

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2023 BOWL BEST BETS !

12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00


TOTALS..............................,8 - 5 - 1................61.53%................+ 13.50
 

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Friday’s 6-pack:
NFL teams with the best records against the spread (all 9-5 ATS)
— Baltimore Ravens
— Dallas Cowboys
— Detroit Lions
— Indianapolis Colts
— Miami Dolphins
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quote of the Day
“I want to be careful with my words, because this one hurts more than most of them. A team that played last night got [50] points off turnovers and rebounds. It is unbelievably hard to understand how we can get outworked in those categories.”
Detroit Pistons coach Monty Williams; Pistons have lost 25 games in a row

Friday’s quiz
When Matthew Stafford was a high school QB in Texas, which current major league pitcher was the center on that team?

Thursday’s quiz
Joe Theismann is the all-time leader in passing yardage for the Washington Redskins/Commanders, with 25,206 yards. Sonny Jurgensen is next, with 22,585 yards.

Wednesday’s quiz
2006/2007 was last time a college basketball team won consecutive national titles, when Billy Donovan’s Florida team won both tournaments.

******************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..

Rams 30, Saints 22
Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS last six weeks, scoring 32.4 ppg in last five games.
Rams outgained New Orleans, 458-339
WR Demarcus Robinson has caught a TD pass in four consecutive games.
Rams are 7-3 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
Rams have missed 11 field goals TY, the most of any team since 2015.
New Orleans didn’t give up a TD in its previous two games (Carolina/Giants).
Rams’ first drive: 14 plays, 95 yards, 7:56 and a TD.
Saints are 7-8, but have been favored in 12 of the 15 games.
New Orleans was 0-3 on 4th down conversions, all in LA territory.

South Florida 45, Syracuse 0
Bulls outgained Syracuse 407-159.
Orangemen were 1-16 on third down conversions.
Syracuse lost seven of its last nine games, after a 4-0 start.

— LA Dodgers signed Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto for $325M over 12 years; Dodger Dogs are going to be expensive next summer. Mets supposedly offered him the same amount of money, but Yamamoto opted to sign with the Dodgers.
Yamamoto is 25; he’s won the Japanese version of the Cy Young Award three times.

— Other baseball signings this week:
Detroit Tigers signed P Jack Flaherty for one year, $14M
Pittsburgh Pirates gave OF Andrew McCutchen a one year, $5M deal.
Mets acquired P Adrian Houser and OF Tyrone Taylor from Milwaukee for minor league outfielder Coleman Crow.

— They tweaked some baseball rules this week:
Teams will be allowed four mound visits per game, not five.
With a runner on base, the pitch clock will now be 0:18; it was 0:20 last year.
If a pitcher warms up before an inning, he has to face the first hitter.

— In case you were wondering, the only 0-0 tie in NFL history was back in 1943, a Giants-Lions game at Briggs Stadium in Detroit.

— Bills-Chargers game Saturday night is exclusively on Peacock; apparently the 4th quarter will be commercial-free, the first time that’s happened on an NFL telecast.

Word of the Day– Imbecile- a stupid person is one definition.
Another definition is someone who stays up until 2am watching the Portland-Hawaii basketball game, after watching the end of the South Dakota-San Diego game before that. Then that person will watch a movie after the Hawaii game, before they get to bed.
That person is me.

— Best wishes to Old Dominion basketball coach Jeff Jones, who had a heart attack Wednesday night; he is expected to make a full recovery. Old Dominion is playing in a holiday tournament in Hawai’i; they lost 111-87 to TCU Thursday.
63-year old Jones has led eight teams to the NCAA Tournament in his 31 years as a college coach; as a player, he was one of Ralph Sampson’s teammates at Virginia.

— Here is how stupid college sports have become:
49ers QB Brock Purdy is making $870,000 this year; he might be the NFL MVP, but he’s still on his rookie contract, and he was a 7th round draft pick.
Texas Longhorns backup QB Arch Manning, Peyton Manning’s nephew, made $2.8M on his NIL deal this season. He doesn’t even freakin’ play and he made $2.8M.

— There are three undefeated teams left in college basketball:
Houston, James Madison, Ole Miss.

— Jazz 119, Pistons 111- Detroit has now lost 25 games in a row; their last win was in October, but somehow they were a slight favorite in this game. Yikes.
Jazz sat out four players, which is why they were the underdog here, but Kelly Olynyk scored 27 points as Utah got a road win.

— Kentucky 95, Louisville 76- Wildcats made 12-25 on the arc. Louisville is 22-54 the last 2+ seasons; it is likely they’ll have a new coach next season.

— Georgia Tech 73, UMass 70- Tech outscored the Minutemen 18-6 over the last 5:03 of the game; they’re off to a 7-3 start.

— New Hampshire 81, Rhode Island 71- Oy. URI has lost five in row, seven of its last eight D-I games. Not good. Rams are shooting 59.6% on foul line (#358), turning ball over 20.2% of the time (#294).

— Happy 98th birthday to the great actor Dick Van Dyke; spent lot of my childhood watching re-runs of his TV show, with Mary Tyler Moore, Morey Amsterdam and Carl Reiner.
 

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FRIDAY, DECEMBER 22

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
GT at UCF06:30 PMUCF -6.0
U 67.0
+500 +500
 

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2023 BOWL BEST BETS !

12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00

TOTALS..............................,9 - 6 - 1................60.00%................+ 13.00
 

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2023 BOWL BEST BETS !

12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00

TOTALS..............................,9 - 6 - 1................60.00%................+ 13.00
 

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C/Notes.....again, thank you for all your daily info and thought's my friend....
you and your family have a great Christmas weekend.....indy
 

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Right back at you indy........And you have a awesome Christmas........(y)
 

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 23

Birmingham Bowl
Troy
(-7.5) vs Duke
Troy (11-2)
— Troy won its last ten games (8-1 ATS last nine).
— Trojans HC quit, moved on to Tulane.
— Trojans were held to 13-14 points in their two losses.
— under Sumrall, Trojans were 6-5 ATS as a favorite (1-2 TY).
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 88 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB had 28 career starts coming into this year.
— Last four games, Troy scored 40 points/game.
— Last seven games. Trojans are +9 in turnovers.
— Troy’s last four games went over the total.
— Troy won/covered its last five bowls, dating back to 2010.
— Sun Belt favorites are 9-6 ATS out of conference.


Duke (7-5)
— QB bolted to Notre Dame, coach bolted to Texas A&M.
— Duke is 3-5 in last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— Duke allowed 21 or less points in its wins, 31.8 ppg in losses.
— Duke is 1-3 TY in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Blue Devils are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as an underdog (2-3 TY)
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 122 starts back on offensive line, with 4 starters back
— freshman backup QB threw 137 passes TY (8 TD, 3 INT)
— Blue Devils are 2-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— over is 5-1 in their last six games.
— Duke won/covered its last four bowls; last bowl loss was in 2014.
— ACC underdogs are 7-10 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met since 2014.
— Favorites are 6-3 ATS in last nine Birmingham Bowls.
— average total in this bowl the last six years: 64.0.
— since 2019, Sun Belt teams are 12-7 ATS vs ACC opponents.


Camellia Bowl
Arkansas State
(-1) vs Northern Illinois (@ Montgomery, AL)
Arkansas State (6-6)
— Red Wolves won 77-31 (Texas State), lost 72-0 (Ohio State).
— Arkansas State is 1-1 in games decided by less than 10 points.
— ASU is 5-2 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 29 starts back on offensive line; they added 4 transfers.
— freshman QB completed 58.8% of passes (15 TD’s, 6 INTs)
— ASU allowed 436+ TY in five of last seven games.
— Last four games, Red Wolves are +6 in turnovers.
— Butch Jones is 4-2 SU in bowl games.
— This is Arkansas State’s first bowl since 2019.
— Red Wolves are 2-3 SU in their last five bowls.


Northern Illinois (6-6)
— Huskies won five of last seven games, after a 1-4 start.
— NIU is 4-1 giving up 14 or fewer points, 2-5 giving up 20+ points.
— NIU is +7 in turnovers in its wins, minus-9 in its losses.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 117 starts back on offensive line; they’re supposed to be good.
— senior QB made 16 starts before this year.
— NIU is 4-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Under Hammock, NIU is 9-7 ATS in non-league games
— four of their last six games stayed under the total.
— NIU went to one bowl the last four years.
— Huskies lost their last seven bowls (1-4 ATS last five)
— MAC teams are 17-18 ATS this year, out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met since 2011.
— Favorites covered this bowl three of last four years.
— since 2015, Sun Belt teams are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— average total in this bowl the last five years: 49.2
— MAC squads are 13-9-1 ATS in last 23 games vs Sun Belt opponents.


Armed Forces Bowl
James Madison
(-3) vs Air Force (@ Fort Worth, TX)
James Madison (11-1)
— JMU’s only loss was 26-23 at home to App State Nov 18.
— Dukes have fun wins by 8 or fewer points.
— Dukes are 4-1 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— JMU’s coach has bolted to Indiana.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line- lot of experience.
— junior QB has completed 68.9% of his passes, thrown 32 TD’s, 9 INT’s.
— JMU is 22-10 ATS in last 32 games as a favorite.
— In September, JMU won 45-38 at Utah State of Mountain West
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
— This is James Madison’s first bowl.
— Sun Belt favorites are 9-6 ATS out of conference.


Air Force (8-4)
— Air Force lost its last four games, after an 8-0 start.
— Last four games, Falcons scored 15.5 ppg.
— Last four games, AF was minus-8 in turnovers.
— Seven of Air Force’s eight I-A wins are by 10+ points.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has thrown 62 passes, run ball 133 times.
— since 2015, Air Force is 16-8-1 ATS as an underdog (0-1 TY)
— since 2016, Flyboys are 20-11-1 ATS in non-league games.
— four of their last six games stayed under the total.
— Air Force won its last four bowl games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
— Falcons (+3.5) won this bowl 30-15 last year.
— Mountain West underdogs are 16-9 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— since 2017, service academies are 4-0 SU in this game.
— last seven years, underdogs are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— since 2016, Mountain West teams are 13-5-2 ATS vs Sun Belt squads.


Idaho Potato Bowl
Georgia State
vs Utah State (-1) (@ Boise, ID)
Georgia State (6-6)
— Panthers lost last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Georgia State allowed 42+ points in 4 of last 5 losses.
— Panthers scored 30+ points in five of their six wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 23 starts.
— Georgia State is 8-5-1 ATS in its last 14 non-league games.
— Panthers are 5-4-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Their last three games stayed under the total.
— Panthers won three of last four bowls, scoring 39-51 in last two.
— Sun Belt teams are 18-14 ATS out of conference.


Utah State (6-6)
— Aggies won last game 44-41 to become bowl eligible.
— Utah State won three of its last four games.
— Utah State is 23-16 SU in three years under Anderson.
— USU is 6-2 when it scores 32+ points, 0-4 if it doesn’t.
— Last two games, Aggies gave up 352/337 yards rushing.
— 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 32 starts back on offensive line; inexperienced.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— TY, Aggies are 3-6 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Utah State is 8-10 ATS in last 18 non-league games.
— last six games, Aggies are minus-7 in turnovers.
— over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
— Utah State is 3-2 SU in its last five bowl games.
— Mountain West teams are 20-13 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites are 4-2 ATS in last six Potato Bowls.
— since 2016, Mountain West teams are 13-5-2 ATS vs Sun Belt squads.


Mobile Bowl
Eastern Michigan
@ South Alabama (-16) (@ Mobile, AL)
Eastern Michigan (6-6)
— EMU won last two games, 30-27/24-11, to become bowl eligible.
— Eagles are 5-0 scoring 24+ points, 1-6 scoring less than 24.
— EMU is 1-5 SU/4-2 ATS on the road this year.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 58 starts back on offensive line; only two starters are back.
— soph QB Smith is completing 57.4% of passes, with 9 TD’s, 7 INT’s.
— EMU is 28-8 ATS last 36 games as a road underdog (4-2 TY).
— under Creighton, EMU is 30-13-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Eagles are 4-9 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— three of their last four games went over.
— Eagles are 22-16 SU last three years (32-61 from 2013-20).
— EMU won bowl game 41-27 LY, snapping 4-game bowl losing skid.
— MAC road underdogs are 15-12 ATS out of conference.


South Alabama (6-6)
— USA is 4-1 when it scores 33+ points, 2-5 when it doesn’t.
— Five of six Jaguar wins were by 18+ points.
— USA is 1-4 in games decided by 13 or less points.
— 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB had 13 career starts coming into this year.
— Jaguars lost SU twice as a double digit favorite TY (3-3 ATS).
— under Wommack, Jaguars are 8-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Four of Jaguars’ last five games stayed under the total.
— under Wommack, Jaguars are 6-8 ATS in non-conference games.
— South Alabama is 0-3 in bowl games (’14, ’16, last year)
— Sun Belt home favorites are 5-4 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites covered this bowl the last three years.
— MAC squads are 13-9-1 ATS in last 23 games vs Sun Belt opponents.
— This bowl is played in South Alabama’s stadium.


Las Vegas Bowl
Utah
(-7) vs Northwestern
Utah (8-4)
— Utah is 2-3 in its last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Utes are 7-0 when they allow 17 or less points, 1-4 if they allow more than 17.
— Utah allowed 32+ points in four of last six games.
— Utah is 11-7 ATS in last 18 games as a favorite (4-2 TY).
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; high expectations
— soph QB Barnes is completing 58.5% of passes (12 TD/9 INT)
— last 4+ years, Utes are 42-17 SU.
— Utah is 6-11-1 ATS in last 18 non-league games.
— Five of their last seven games went over.
— Utah lost last four bowls, after Whittingham started out 11-1 in bowls.
— Pac-12 favorites are 13-6 ATS out of conference.


Northwestern (7-5)
— Northwestern had off-field issues in off-season, has a new coach.
— Ex-coach Fitzgerald was 111-101 there, played there; big change
— Interim coach did so well, he is now the full-time coach.
— Wildcats won last three games to become bowl eligible.
— 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 27 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 11 games at Cincinnati last year.
— Northwestern covered its last six games (4-2 SU)
— Wildcats covered their last five tries as an underdog.
— Northwestern is 3-8-1 ATS in last 12 non-conference games.
— under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— This is Northwestern’s first bowl since 2020.
— Wildcats won their last four bowls (two as an underdog)


— Northwestern (+7) upset Utah 31-20 in 2018 Holiday Bowl.
— Favorite covered last four Las Vegas Bowls.
— since 2013, Pac-12 teams are 5-3 SU/4-4 ATS in this bowl.
— Pac-12 teams are 11-7 ATS in last 18 games vs Big 14 opponents.


Hawai’i Bowl
Coastal Carolina
vs San Jose State (-10)
Coastal Carolina (7-5)
— Coastal’s 4-year starting QB has bolted to NC State.
— Coastal lost last two games, 28-21/56-14.
— Chanticleers are 0-5 giving up 27+ points, 7-0 giving up less than 27.
— Coastal is 3-1 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Chanticleers are 11-4 ATS last 15 games as an underdog.
— 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 39 starts back on offensive line.
— backup QB has completed 62.9% of passes (4 TD’s, one INT)
— Coastal is 11-9 ATS in its last 20 non-league games.
— over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Coastal has played in bowls the last three years, their first three bowls.
— Coastal was 1-2 in those bowls, with average total of 80.3.
— Sun Belt underdogs are 9-10 ATS out of conference.


San Jose State (7-5)
— Spartans won their last six games, after a 1-5 start.
— San Jose allowed 35+ points in four of five losses.
— Spartans are bowl eligible for third time in four years.
— San Jose is 6-0 when they score 30+, 1-5 when they don’t.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 35 games, 23 at Hawai’i.
— Spartans are 4-1 ATS as a favorite TY.
— under Brennan, San Jose is 12-13 ATS in non-conference tilts.
— San Jose ran ball for 217+ yards in five of last six games.
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— San Jose made bowls two of last three years, but lost both.
— Mountain West favorites are 4-4 ATS out of conference.


— Underdogs won the last five Hawai’i Bowls SU.
— Mountain West teams are 4-2 ATS in last six Hawai’i Bowls.
— since 2016, Mountain West teams are 13-5-2 ATS vs Sun Belt squads.




NCAAF

Bowl Season


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

December 23

Arkansas State @ Northern Illinois

Arkansas State
Arkansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arkansas State is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 6 games

Troy @ Duke
Troy
Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Duke
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Duke's last 6 games
Duke is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games

Georgia State @ Utah State
Georgia State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia State's last 6 games
Georgia State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah State
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Utah State's last 11 games

James Madison @ Air Force
James Madison
James Madison is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
James Madison is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Air Force
Air Force is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Air Force's last 6 games

South Alabama @ Eastern Michigan
South Alabama
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Alabama's last 5 games
South Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Eastern Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 6 games

Utah @ Northwestern
Utah
Utah is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 7 games
Northwestern
Northwestern is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Northwestern is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Coastal Carolina @ San Jose State
Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Coastal Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
San Jose State
San Jose State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Jose State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 23

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
ARST at NIU12:00 PMNIU +2.5
U 54.5
+500 +500
TROY at DUKE12:00 PMTROY -7.0
O 44.5
+500 +500
GSU at USU03:30 PMUSU -1.5
O 59.0
+500 +500
JMU at AFA03:30 PMJMU -1.0
U 41.5
+500 +500
USA at EMU07:00 PMEMU +17.0
O 44.5
+500 +500
UTAH at NW07:30 PMNW +6.5
U 42.0
+500 +500
CCU at SJSU10:30 PMSJSU -9.0
O 48.0
+500 +500
 

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2023 BOWL BEST BETS !

12/23/2023.......................5 - 7 - 0.................41.66%..............- 13.50
12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00

TOTALS...........................14 - 13 - 1................51.85%................- 0.50
 

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