NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 2
Friday’s game
Illinois @ Kansas
Illinois (1-0)
— Illini (-8) needed last-second FG to beat Toledo 30-28 LW.
— Rockets outgained Illinois LW, 416-374.
— Last year was Illinois’ first winning season since 2011.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— new QB started one game at Ole Miss.
— under Bielema, Illinois is 6-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— in his career, Bielema is 21-15-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— under Bielema, Illinois is 3-4 ATS in non-league games.
— Illinois is 3-2 in last five bowls; they were underdog in 4 of the 5 games.
Kansas (1-0)
— Jayhawks beat up on a I-AA team 48-17 last week.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line; four starters are back
— junior QB has started 13 games.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— in his career, Leipold is 16-7-1 as a home favorite
— under Leipold, Kansas is 4-3 ATS outside Big X.
— Kansas was 6-7 LY, going to their first bowl since 2008.
— Kansas won 3 of last 4 bowls (lost 55-53 (+2.5) to Arkansas LY)
— these teams haven’t played each other in last 25 years.
— last three years, Big 14 teams are 6-3 ATS vs Big X opponents.
Saturday’s top 13 games
Notre Dame @ NC State
Notre Dame (2-0)
— Notre Dame beat up on Navy 42-3 (-21) and a I-AA team 56-3.
— LY’s offensive coordinator bolted to Alabama; new OC was TE coach.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line- new OL coach was at Wisconsin for 7 years.
— Senior QB Hartman started 45 games at Wake Forest.
— Irish are 2-4 ATS last six games as favorite LY (18-9-2 from 2019-21).
— Since start of ’22, ND is minus-2 in turnovers (+32 from 2019-21)
— Irish lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).
NC State (1-0)
— Wolfpack (-14) won opener 24-14 at UConn.
— State outgained the Huskies 364-320.
— Last 3+ years, State is 26-12 SU, 19-19 ATS
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB Armstrong started 30 games at Virginia; he’s good.
— since 2017, State is 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last four years, Wolfpack is 6-10 ATS out of conference.
— State hasn’t won a bowl game since 2017 (0-3 since)
— these teams haven’t met since 2017.
Utah @ Baylor
Utah (1-0)
— Utes (-5) beat Florida 24-11 LW; they were outgained 346-270 by Gators.
— Utah QB Rising (knee) missed LW’s game (check status)
— Utes played two QBs LW; one is more of a runner.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; high expectations
— senior QB (Rising) has started 24 games.
— Last 4+ years, Utes are 35-13 SU.
— last two years, Utah is 3-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Since 2018, Utah is 6-10-1 ATS outside the Pac-12.
— Utah lost last four bowls, after Whittingham started out 11-1 in bowls.
Baylor (0-1)
— Baylor (-27) lost 42-31 LW to Texas State.
— Bears outgained North Texas, 524-441; they threw for 416 yards.
— Baylor QB Shapen is out 2-3 weeks.
— last 4+ years, Baylor is 31-20 SU (+33 in turnovers)
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 54 starts back on offensive line; 2 of 3 starters will be transfers.
— soph backup QB is making his first start.
— since 2018, Bears are 6-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— under Aranda, Baylor is 5-4 ATS out of conference.
— Bears are 3-2 SU in last five bowls; they were underdog in 4 of 5 games.
— these teams haven’t played each other in last 25 years.
— since 2018, Big X teams are 13-4 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
Nebraska @ Colorado
Nebraska (0-1)
— LW, Nebraska (+7) lost 13-10 at Minnesota.
— Huskers outgained Minnesota 295-251, but were minus-3 in turnovers.
— last 6+ years, Nebraska is 23-46 SU, 31-36-2 ATS
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line.
— new QB started 23 games at Georgia Tech.
— As a college coach, Rhule is 32-13 ATS as an underdog.
— since 2017, Nebraska is 15-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Nebraska’s last bowl game was 2016.
— Last 33 games, Nebraska is minus-22 in turnovers.
Colorado (1-0)
— Colorado (+21) upset TCU 45-42 last week.
— Buffs threw for 510 yards at TCU.
— Horned Frogs ran ball for 262 yards, threw for 279.
— Deion Sanders is the new coach (27-6 at I-AA Jackson State)
— 6 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 44 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB Sanders started 26 games at Jackson State
— since 2017, Colorado is 5-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 2+ years, Buffs are 2-5 ATS out of conference.
— Colorado’s new OC was a good head coach at Kent State.
— Colorado hasn’t gone bowling since 2020; their last bowl win, 2004.
— since 2013, Big 14 teams are 32-23-1 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
— these teams used to be big rivals in the old Big 8 Conference.
— teams last met in 2019; Colorado won last two meetings.
Ole Miss @ Tulane
Ole Miss (1-0)
— Ole Miss beat up on a I-AA team last week, 73-7.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 131 starts back on offensive line; good offensive line
— junior QB started 12 games last year.
— they added transfer QB with 41 starts at Oklahoma State
— In his college career, Kiffin is 18-24 ATS at home, 29-24-1 on road.
— Under Kiffin, Rebels are 7-4 ATS outside the SEC.
— Ole Miss is 2-3 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.
Tulane (1-0)
— Tulane (-6) beat South Alabama 37-17 last week.
— Green Wave outgained USA, 436-265
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 130 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 33 starts
— since 2017, Tulane is 7-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Fritz is 9-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Fritz, Green Wave is 20-11 ATS outside the AAC.
— Tulane is 3-1 SU/ATS in its last four bowls.
— Rebels waxed Tulane 61-21 in 2021; they outgained Green Wave 707-305.
— Last three years, AAC teams are 7-5-1 ATS vs SEC teams.
Texas A&M @ Miami FL
Texas A&M (1-0)
— Aggies (-38) hammered New Mexico 52-10 last week.
— A&M outgained the Lobos, 411-222.
— 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line.
— Soph QB Weigman started 4 games last year.
— under Fisher, Aggies are 23-7 ATS as a favorite.
— in his career, Fisher is 23-18-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Since 2017, A&M is 17-7-1 ATS outside the SEC.
— A&M won its last three bowls, scoring 52-24-41 points.
Miami FL (1-0)
— Hurricanes (-16) hammered Miami OH 38-3 LW.
— ‘canes ran ball for 250 yards LW, threw for 243.
— Last 2+ years, Miami is 13-12 SU, 9-16 ATS.
— 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has t18 career starts.
— last 10 years, Miami is 4-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Cristobal is 10-9 ATS as a home underdog.
— Hurricanes are 8-13 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.
— Miami hasn’t been to a bowl since 2020; last bowl win? 2016.
— A&M (-6) beat Miami 17-9 at home last year.
— Hurricanes outgained A&M 392-264.
— SEC teams are 32-18 ATS in last 50 games vs ACC opponents.
Iowa @ Iowa State
Iowa (1-0)
— Iowa (-23) beat Utah State 24-14 last week.
— Utah State outgained the Hawkeyes, 329-284
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 114 starts back on offensive line
— new QB McNamara started 16 games at Michigan.
— last 10 years, Iowa is 21-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Hawkeyes are 16-7-1 ATS in last 24 road games.
— Iowa is 14-5-1 ATS in last 20 non-conference games.
— Iowa won four of its last five bowl games (5-0 ATS)
Iowa State (1-0)
— LY’s starting QB Dekkers withdrew from school (gambling charges)
— Cyclones beat a I-AA team 30-9 last week.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line
— freshman QB was 10-13/113 in last week’s game.
— in his career, Campbell is 32-16-2 ATS as an underdog.
— since 2016, Iowa State is 11-4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— since 2018, Iowa State is 7-9 ATS in non-conference games.
— Cyclones lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).
— Iowa is 6-1 SU/4-2-1 ATS in last seven series games.
— Hawkeyes are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven visits to Ames.
— Under is 15-2 in last 17 meetings.
— last 2+ years, Big 14 teams are 6-3 ATS vs Big X opponents.
Texas State @ Texas-San Antonio
Texas State (1-0)
— Bobcats (+27) stunned Baylor 42-31 last week.
— Bears outgained Texas State, 524-441
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 3 games at Auburn, also played at LSU
— last 4+ years, Texas State is 9-13 ATS as a road underdog.
— last 4+ years, Texas State is 8-9 ATS in non-conference games.
— Texas State has never been to a bowl game; is this the year?
— TSU’s coach was 12-2 LY at I-AA Incarnate Word.
Texas-San Antonio (0-1)
— UTSA (-2) lost 17-14 at Houston last week.
— Roadrunners ran for 208 yards, outgained Houston, 417-334
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 42 games.
— under Traylor, UTSA is 7-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Traylor, UTSA is also 7-9 ATS in non-conference games.
— UTSA was minus-3 in turnovers LW (+22 from 2020-22)
— Roadrunners went 0-3 in bowls the last three years.
— UTSA won last four series games.
— Roadrunners won last meeting, 51-48 in 2020.
— since 2015, AAC teams are 16-14 ATS vs Sun Belt opponents.
SMU @ Oklahoma
SMU (1-0)
— SMU (-21) beat Louisiaia Tech 38-14 LW.
— SMU ran ball for 209 yards, passed for 248.
— last 4+ years, SMU is 33-16 SU/24-25 ATS.
— last three years, Mustangs are 1-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 123 starts back on offensive line.
— LY’s QB bolted to Wisconsin; soph QB has 2 starts.
— new QB Preston was 23-37/248 passing LW.
— Last 4+ years, SMU is 11-7 ATS outside the AAC
— SMU qualified for a bowl 4 of last 5 years; last bowl win, 2012.
Oklahoma (1-0)
— Oklahoma (-36) crushed Arkansas State 73-0 last week.
— Sooners were 30-33/422 passing last week.
— Sooners were 6-7 LY, after going 97-22 the previous nine years.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 147 starts back on OL; should be much better
— junior QB Gabriel started 12 games LY, also started at UCF
— last 3+ years, Oklahoma is 11-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 10+ years, Sooners are 24-15 ATS in non-conference games.
— Oklahoma is 2-3 SU/4-1 ATS in last five bowls (average total, 78.2)
— these teams haven’t met in this century.
— since 2020, AAC teams are 7-5-1 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Cincinnati (1-0)
— Cincinnati pounded a I-AA team 66-13 last week.
— last 4+ years, Bearcats are 54-11 SU/33-30-1 ATS
— New coach Satterfield was 26-24 SU/26-22-2 ATS at Louisville.
— 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 20 starts back on offensive line; not much experience.
— senior QB Jones started 7 games at Arizona State LY.
— last six years, Cincinnati was 8-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— in his career, Satterfield is 9-13-2 ATS as a road dog.
— Cincinnati lost its last three bowls; favorites covered 4 of their last 5 bowls.
Pittsburgh (1-0)
— Pitt pounded a I-AA team 45-7 last week.
— Last 2+ years, Panthers were 21-7 SU/16-11 ATS.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; 3 starters are back.
— senior QB Jurkovec started 24 games at Boston College
— Last four years, Panthers are 8-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 14-22-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Pitt split its last four bowls; 3 of the 4 were decided by 4 or less points.
— Pitt has a rivalry game with West Virginia next week.
— These teams haven’t met since 2012.
— since 2019, Big X teams are 7-3-1 ATS vs ACC opponents.
Texas @ Alabama
Texas (1-0)
— Texas (-35) beat Rice 37-10 last week.
— Texas outgained the Owls 458-176.
— Texas is 14-12 last 2+ years, after going 25-12 from 2018-20.
— 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started 10 games last year.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 9-5 ATS at home, 3-6 on road.
— In his career, Sarkisian is 9-18 ATS as road underdog.
— since 2014, Texas is 5-10 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2016, Texas is 17-8 ATS outside the Big X.
— Texas is 4-1 in last five bowls; they were underdog is 3 of the 4 wins.
Alabama (1-0)
— Alabama (-39) waxed Middle Tennessee 56-7 last week.
— Crimson Tide outgained MTSU, 431-211
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB Milroe was 13-19/194 passing LW, in his 2nd start.
— Alabama is +2 in turnovers since start of LY (+76 from 2015-21)
— Last 3+ years, Alabama is 14-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Alabama is 13-5 ATS in last 18 non-conference games.
— Crimson Tide won six of its last eight bowls.
— Alabama (-21) nipped Texas 20-19 LY in Austin.
— Total yardage in game: 374-371
— Last three years, Big X teams are 8-2 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Oregon @ Texas Tech
Oregon (1-0)
— Oregon pounded on a I-AA team LW, 81-7.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 96 starts back on offensive line.
— Senior QB Nix QB has 47 career starts, 34 of them at Auburn.
— Last 5+ years, Ducks are 46-16 SU.
— since 2018, Ducks are 10-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— Oregon was 8-3 ATS as a favorite in Lanning’s first season LY.
— Since 2014, Oregon is 11-20-2 ATS outside Pac-12.
— Ducks are 3-2 in last five bowl games; all three wins were by one point.
Texas Tech (0-1)
— Tech (-13) lost 35-33 in OT at Wyoming last week.
— Red Raiders threw for 338 yards, outgained Wyoming 431-320.
— Tech went 7-6/8-5 last 2 years (43-54 from 2013-20)
— 11 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 142 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 16 games
— last four years, Tech is 7-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— last two years, Red Raiders are 8-3 ATS coming off a loss.
— Tech won last two bowls as an underdog; scored 34-34-42 in last three.
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Big X teams are 12-5 ATS in last 17 games vs Pac-12 opponents.
UCLA @ San Diego State
UCLA (1-0)
— UCLA (-15) beat Coastal Carolina 27-13 LW.
— Bruins threw for 264 yards, outgained CCU, 417-345
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 126 starts back on offensive line; high expectations.
— Bruins played 2 QB’s LW; freshman Moore was effective off bench.
— Under Kelly, Bruins are 4-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Since 2014, UCLA is 7-21-1 ATS outside the Pac-12.
— UCLA lost its last three bowls, giving up 37-35-37 points.
— Bruins’ last bowl win was 40-35 over K-State in 2014 Alamo Bowl.
San Diego State (2-0)
— San Diego State beat I-AA Idaho State 36-28 LW, but allowed 309 PY.
— Aztecs won their opener, 20-13 (-2.5) over Ohio U.
— Ohio U outgained the Aztecs, 380-309.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 53 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— since 2013, Aztecs are 10-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last 4+ years, San Diego State is 11-7 ATS in non-conference games.
— San Diego State is 2-3 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
— Teams haven’t met since 2019.
— Mountain West teams are 11-4 ATS in last 15 games vs Pac-12 opponents.
Stanford @ USC
Stanford (1-0)
— Stanford (-2) won its opener, 37-24 at Hawai’i.
— Rainbows passed for 355 yards in that game.
— last two years, Cardinal went 3-9/3-9; now they’ve got new coach.
— Stanford was -10/-10 in turnovers the last two years.
— 3 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 15 starts back on offensive line.
— New coach, soph QB, only 6 of 22 starters back.
— since 2017, Stanford is 5-14 ATS as a road underdog.
— Cardinal is 9-23-1 ATS in last 33 conference games.
— Stanford hasn’t gone bowling since 2018.
USC (1-0)
— USC won its first two games 56-28/66-14 (1-1 ATS).
— Trojans passed for 794 yards in those two games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 95 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has started 21 games, is favored to win Heisman Trophy.
— In his career, Riley is 24-16 ATS as a home favorite, 6-3 at USC.
— last three years, Trojans are 10-15 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— USC is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 3 of 5 games)
— Their last bowl win was 52-49 over Penn State in 2016 Rose Bowl
— USC won four of last six meetings.
— Stanford is 6-3 ATS in last nine games in the Coliseum.
— Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.
