Week 14: Conference Championship Week

Search

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
One win away from a really good week. App. State not covering by a point. Arizona and BYU barely not covering. Still eked some winnings. ND and Georgia came through.

YTD: 102-87, +10.84 units. Leans: 29-21. FCS; 9-2 (Will look harder this week)

2.5* WKU -1.5 It sure seems that in recent weeks, and in past conference championship games, that great offenses really shine even more than usual. Right now, and for much of the last two months, no one's offense has looked better than WKU's- in the Group of 5 conferences. Not even UC. WKU has also improved defensively in their last 4-5 games, and I think they are about at the same level of play as UTSA. there. In fact, UTSA's D has been really knocked around lately by UAB and UNT. RB Sincere McCormick has not been as productive...maybe worn down a bit from overuse? Maybe teams are keying on him and forcing QB Frank Harris to pass and run more. Harris has had a good year, but he's also had some subpar games too. I know WKU is the sexy choice, but you can't argue with Bailey Zappe's 70% accuracy, 52 TDs, 9 ints. and only 12 sacks. He's got a very good OL and run game to complement the passing game. WKU lost by 6 earlier to UTSA, but put up 670 yards, and out yarded UTSA by a 100. UTSA at home for this so that explains the spread. WKU has the kind of offense that can come from behind, if needed.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
6.5* Georgia -6.5 I couldn't believe Auburn was getting 20 points last week in their home game with Alabama. Even with Bo Nix out, it just seemed like a ridiculously high spread. So much so, I got spooked away from it. Fishy. Yet it really reflected just how much the betting public loves Alabama, that they are a ATS gold mine. That was a helluva comeback to win, but if you saw the game, or their Arkansas game, or their LSU game or A&M game, this Bama team is a lesser version of previous teams. Auburn should have won. LSU could have won. Brian Robinson looks dinged up, Bryse Young and his OL has struggled at times, with Young holding the ball too long, getting sacked, or throwing too early.

Part of this play is that there is usually 1 or 2 teams in the hunt for the NC that just are heads above everyone. Last year it was Bama and Ohio State, sometimes it was Clemson....this year it's Georgia. I know their schedule has been easier than other SEC teams, but when they have played the better teams, they dominated. Another factor is how they have been able to win many of their games by the 3rd quarter, and bring in the backups after that. How good can they be if the starters play all 60 minutes? Another factor is that their offense is underrated. The OL is better than Bama's. In offensive efficiency, they are number 2, right after Ohio State. I think they'll play even better this week. Finally, I doubt Alabama can run much at all on Georgia. If Georgia's defensive gameplay is geared to pressure Young so he doesn't get much time in the pocket(which it should), Georgia won't give up too many big plays through the air. Bama bettors can't believe they can bet this up and get 7 whole points. IMO, 7 won't be nearly enough.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
4.5* Michigan -10.5 (-112) Yes, they could have a letdown after their huge OSU win. Maybe they play poorly at first. But I also can't see this Iowa offense doing much at all. Iowa has depended far too much on turnovers and special teams plays. It's a great part of their success, but a team can't count on it- as evidenced by their losses to Wisconsin and Purdue...and their tight wins over Illinois and Northwestern. Nebraska gave away last week's game. Watching Iowa's two QBs, I just don't see much that'll get them down the field vs. this UM defense. Both defenses are comparatively equal.

Michigan, though, has an underrated passing offense. Cade McNamara has had his better games vs. better competition. In some of their easier wins, Michigan just used their great run game to dominate opponents. Michigan has the superior OL too. Iowa QBs have been sacked 30 times to McNamara's 6. Tyler Goodson has had some outstanding games, but he's also had 6 games where he had less than 3 yards per carry. Michigan, like Iowa, also has had great special teams play. Even in their MSU loss, Michigan seemed to dominate in much of the game. The 4 FGS after driving the ball easily on MSU really hurt in the final score. Ohio State has made a habit of kicking ass in these conference championship games. I think Michigan can do the same here vs. a meek Iowa offense.
 

MLB

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
2,481
Tokens
Ofred, appreciate your thoughts. Any chance you think UGA line may go below 6 when all the Bama bettors start firing away?
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
I doubt it moves much from here. Brian Robinson's availability is more questionable, and with Roydell Williams and McClellan out, Trey Sanders isn't exactly a great 1st choice to run the ball. It might move to 7, but really doubt it moves below six or even to six. If it does, I'm gonna feel stupid.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MLB

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2017
Messages
21,691
Tokens
Gonna be very intersting to see the public numbers on the Georgia bet
I have yet to see someone say Bama
Even I am mostly a dog bettor and I see Georgia as obvious
GL
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
I think the Alabama bettors will be there, although it's a little unsettling to see too much money on one side- which right now is Georgia. Look at last week's Ohio St.- Michigan game. Probably 80-90% of the bets were on OSU. However, in the past, in these conference championships, and in the NC semi-finals, we've seen some lopsided betting number towards the favorite, and they still easily cover. Georgia is the only team left that can win in dominant form. Todd Monken and the Georgia offense is going to be a unexpected difference-maker, and have we seen all of their playbook/ schemes? Stetson Bennett always has to prove himself, but played well vs. Auburn and Ky- two of the better Ds they faced.
 

Member
Joined
Jan 24, 2010
Messages
781
Tokens
Nice writeups per usual fred, and agree 100% on WKU in this spot, will be interested to hear your thoughts on Oregon/Utah if you play it. GL this week!
 

Member
Joined
Sep 17, 2010
Messages
8,574
Tokens
Great write ups, ofred, good rationale & insight, I always appreciate your approach!

GL!
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
Serbonne, Wiilie, Thanks. Going to look at the other games in the next couple of days.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
Lean:
Oregon +3 (-125)
You'd think living here in Oregon, I'd have some insight on this game. It's a tough one to cap. Utah has played well when playing the big boys of the PAC 12. They can stifle the Oregon run game. But I think Oregon's OC, Joe Moorhead, will pass first in this game, and try to be much more unpredictable than. their last game with Utah. Last game, was a disgrace, and usually quality teams don't repeat that kind of no-show performance. For Oregon, this is likely the last game we'll see their NFL prospects play, but I think they'll play well. I also think Oregon will use RB Byron Cardwell more- a player that gives them the long run threat more than Travis Dye. Anyways, neutral field. Oregon's bowl game will be anti-climatic, so this is a biggie for the players who know their stars won't likely play in the bowl game.
 

Member
Joined
Nov 26, 2004
Messages
2,041
Tokens
Serious Question here;

Georgia is basically in the Playoff-for sure......

What motivation do they have to win this game vs. Alabama ???

actually if they do not win , Alabama will also get in the playoff ...so they can control who makes the final 4 ...INTERESTING
 

Member
Joined
Aug 23, 2014
Messages
236
Tokens
6.5* Georgia -6.5 I couldn't believe Auburn was getting 20 points last week in their home game with Alabama. Even with Bo Nix out, it just seemed like a ridiculously high spread. So much so, I got spooked away from it. Fishy. Yet it really reflected just how much the betting public loves Alabama, that they are a ATS gold mine. That was a helluva comeback to win, but if you saw the game, or their Arkansas game, or their LSU game or A&M game, this Bama team is a lesser version of previous teams. Auburn should have won. LSU could have won. Brian Robinson looks dinged up, Bryse Young and his OL has struggled at times, with Young holding the ball too long, getting sacked, or throwing too early.

Part of this play is that there is usually 1 or 2 teams in the hunt for the NC that just are heads above everyone. Last year it was Bama and Ohio State, sometimes it was Clemson....this year it's Georgia. I know their schedule has been easier than other SEC teams, but when they have played the better teams, they dominated. Another factor is how they have been able to win many of their games by the 3rd quarter, and bring in the backups after that. How good can they be if the starters play all 60 minutes? Another factor is that their offense is underrated. The OL is better than Bama's. In offensive efficiency, they are number 2, right after Ohio State. I think they'll play even better this week. Finally, I doubt Alabama can run much at all on Georgia. If Georgia's defensive gameplay is geared to pressure Young so he doesn't get much time in the pocket(which it should), Georgia won't give up too many big plays through the air. Bama bettors can't believe they can bet this up and get 7 whole points. IMO, 7 won't be nearly enough.


6.5* is this a typo or game of the year type. Though your scale was 1-5 starts
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
My plays are from 1-10, but I rarely get to a 7-10.

As for Georgia's motivation, there are so many reasons they want this win here. Being number one in the playoff ranking means they play #4. Undefeated season. They are playing Alabama, a team that has tormented Georgia, including a 2020 beatdown. The best team of the last decade and if you beat them, it says something. Mostly though, can you imagine the players and coaches NOT being motivated playing Bama? Football players at this level love these moments and a chance to show their stuff. More reasons, but this will suffice...
 

Member
Joined
Nov 26, 2004
Messages
2,041
Tokens
My plays are from 1-10, but I rarely get to a 7-10.

As for Georgia's motivation, there are so many reasons they want this win here. Being number one in the playoff ranking means they play #4. Undefeated season. They are playing Alabama, a team that has tormented Georgia, including a 2020 beatdown. The best team of the last decade and if you beat them, it says something. Mostly though, can you imagine the players and coaches NOT being motivated playing Bama? Football players at this level love these moments and a chance to show their stuff. More reasons, but this will suffice...
Good points !!!!
thanx
 

Member
Joined
Jan 24, 2010
Messages
781
Tokens
Also, assuming chalk holds, the committee putting Bama at 3 is telling them you lose and you're out
Baylor OK State play early too
Georgia would basically be knocking them out of the playoff in that scenario
Something I think they'd be VERY interested in doing
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
1* Appalachian St. -2.5 (-120) Napier has been hired by Florida, and reportedly is trying to coach both teams? Recruiting and looking for coaches for Florida, and prepping for the Sun Belt Championship game. His ULL players have to be a little let down, and might also worry about other coaches to follow Napier to Florida. Guys start thinking transfer portal. But I also think App. State has been playing great football since their loss at ULL on October 12. I am going to ride with the assumption that the better offenses play even better in these types of games. And App. State is loaded with playmakers(wish they had let them loose a little more last week more vs. Ga So). ULL only has one loss, and they are a solid team, but they have played a lot of cupcakes, barely winning sometimes. I am impressed with their win vs. App. State, but less impressed with their win vs. Liberty. They had a 6-0 TO edge there, but had little offense, and Liberty is a much weaker team than we thought they were preseason. App. State also tends to play well on special teams, and bring some surprises to games like this.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
3.5* UC -10 You've got to give it to the Bearcats. They had a couple of games mid-season where they lost their focus. They nearly lost their Tulsa game. They looked complacent vs. Navy. But when this UC team, and Desmond Ridder, have a big game- @ ECU last week to keep in the running for a playoff spot, Notre Dame, SMU, perennial rival UCF, they got the job done...and in most cases, easily. I'm riding them here in a home game because they seem to have that killer mentality. Houston is much improved this season, but other than their SMU game and their Texas Tech loss, they've played an easy schedule. The AAC is down this year with UCF, Memphis, Tulsa, Tulane, all looking worse than 2020. Clayton Tune also has had a much improved season, but I don't think he's played a D, especially on the road, nearly this good. And playing super softie UConn last week might not have been a good warm-up for this one. Good chance Luke Fickell coaching either his last game, or announces he's moving on to ND, and coaching through the playoffs. Could be an emotional edge that UC will get, although if you've watched them, they seem like a super motivated bunch when they play these type of games. UC's secondary and front 7 pressure keeps Tune in check- UC pulls away 2nd half.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 17, 2010
Messages
8,574
Tokens
Among other things, Smart is telling them that if they beat Bama, then win the championship, go 15-0, they will be looked upon and maybe the greatest Georgia team of all time, and in there with the best overall NCAA football teams of all time.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
6,021
Tokens
Among other things, Smart is telling them that if they beat Bama, then win the championship, go 15-0, they will be looked upon and maybe the greatest Georgia team of all time, and in there with the best overall NCAA football teams of all time.
Georgia players looked very motivated to beat up on teams like South Carolina and Vandy. Anyone who thinks they won't be motivated to crush Alabama has not been following SEC football very long. This is not USC going through the motions. Can Georgia put enough pressure on Bryce Young so that he doesn't have time for deeper routes to develop? Auburn did, as did other defenses. Georgia should be able to. I also like that Bama's run game could be diminished with an injured Brian Robinson.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,815
Messages
13,439,080
Members
99,339
Latest member
billcunninghamhomeloans
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com