CNOTES COLLEGE BASKETBALL 2021-2022 NEWS/TRENDS/BEST BETS THRU NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP !

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SUNDAY, JANUARY 16
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


BUT at VILL 12:00 PM
O 123.5
+500

PSU at OSU 12:00 PM
O 134.5
+500

NIAG at IONA 01:00 PM
NIAG +9.5
+500

NAVY at BU 01:00 PM
NAVY -1.5
+500

BING at ME 01:00 PM
O 129.0
+500

SPC at RID 02:00 PM
SPC -4.0
+500

BUCK at AMER 02:00 PM
U 143.0
+500

ARMY at LAF 02:00 PM
ARMY -3.0
+500


LT at USM 03:00 PM
LT -14.0
+500

L-MD at LEH 06:00 PM
O 133.0
+500
 

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JANUARY'S NCAA BASKETBALL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

Date .................W-L-T..............%.................Units

01/16/2022.......5-4-1........55.00%..........+3.00
01/15/2022....35-44-2........44.44%..........-67.00
01/14/2022.......3-2-0.........60.00%..........+4.00
01/13/2022....14-19-1........42.42%...........-34.50
01/12/2022....22-25-0.........46.80%..........-27.50
01/10/2022.......8-9-0..........47.06%............-9.50
01/09/2022.......5-7-2..........42.86%..........-13.50
01/08/2022....47-57-0..........45.19%..........-78.50
01/07/2022........9-9-1.........50.00%...........- 4.50
01/06/2022.....22-17-0.........56.41%.........+16.50
01/05/2022.....12-14-1.........46.30%..........-17.00
01/04/2022.....17-32-0..........34.69%..........-91.00
01/03/2022.........5-3-0..........62.50%.........+ 8.50
01/02/2022.......11-3-1..........76.67%.........+38.50

TOTALS........215-245-6.........46.73%..........-272.50

BEST BETS:

01/16/2022............5-4-1............55.55%..........+3.00
01/15/2022.........19-19-0...........50.00%...........-9.50
01/14/2022............3-2-0............60.00%..........+4.00
01/13/2022...........12-10-1..........54.54%.........+5.00
01/12/2022..........12-13-0...........48.00%.........-11.50
01/10/2021..........4-4-0.............50.00%...........-2.00
01/09/2022............5-4-1.............55.55%..........+3.00
01/08/2022.........28-23-0............54.90%.........+13.50
01/07/2022.............5-5-1............50.00%...........- 2.50
01/06/2022...........12-9-0............57.14%..........+10.50
01/05/2022.......... 9-11-0............45.00%...........-15.50
01/04/2022...........3-11-0............21.42%...........-45.50
01/03/2022.............3-3-0.............50.00%..........- 1.50
01/02/2022.............5-1-0.............83.33%.........+19.50

TOTALS............125-116-0.............51.86%..........-32.50


01/16/2022
 

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Armadillo Sports

Monday’s 6-pack:
Some of the teams forcing the most turnovers this season:
26.3% of possessions— Texas
26.2%—VCU
26.2%— Iowa State
25.9%— LSU
25.4%— Texas A&M
25.3%— Tennessee

Quote of the Day
“You can shear a sheep many times but you can only skin him once.”
Amarillo Slim

Monday’s quiz
Who was the Steelers’ QB before Ben Roethlisberger?

Sunday’s quiz
Before Saturday, Cincinnati’s last playoff win was in 1990; Boomer Esiason played QB for the Bengals that day.
(Really obscure trivia: Cody Carlson played QB for Houston that day)

Saturday’s quiz
Michigan Wolverines were in the Final Four four years ago; John Beilein was their coach.

******************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday……..

13) Buccaneers 31, Eagles 15:
— Tampa Bay led 31-0 after three quarters.
— Eagles in first three quarters: 45 plays, 154 yards, no points.
— Brady is 35-11 in playoff games.

12) 49ers 23, Cowboys 17:
— San Francisco led 23-7 after three quarters.
— Dallas had ball in 49ers’ territory when time ran out.
— Cowboys had 14 penalties for 89 yards.

11) Chiefs 42, Steelers 21:
— Game was scoreless after the first quarter.
— Steelers took 7-0 lead with a defensive score.
— Kansas City then scored a TD on its next six drives.

10) Spreads for next week’s playoff games:
— Bengals @ Tennessee (-3.5)
— 49ers @ Green Bay (-5.5)
— Bills @ Kansas City (-2.5)

9) Dak Prescott holds an NFL record, throwing for 974 yards in consecutive games LY (Weeks 3-4). Problem is, he got hurt in Week 5 and was lost for the rest of the season.

Dallas won the NFC East this year, Prescott had a good season, but now he is 1-3 in playoff games, and there are rumblings that coach McCarthy’s job is on thin ice.

Prescott threw for 254 yards Sunday, was sacked five times; Dallas had 14 penalties. Whose fault is that? It is debatable, but Jerry Jones may not want to lose OC Kellen Moore, and may promote him to head coach at a fairly young age. That would make McCarthy the fall guy for Sunday’s loss.

8) Las Vegas Raiders made the playoffs this year, despite a minus-9 turnover ratio, and with a defense that gave up 35 touchdowns on 43 red zone drives. Tons of distractions, on and off the field, but the interim coach kept the group together- they won six games on last play of the game, an NFL record.

Doesn’t Rich Bisaccia deserve a shot at the fulltime head coaching job?

7) I’m guessing the fine folks at NBC were grumbling about the lousy Sunday night game; had the Chargers won/tied last week, they would’ve knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs, and the Sunday night game this week might’ve been more competitive.

6) Cincinnati 61, Wichita State 57— Shockers are off to a disappointing 0-4 start in AAC.

5) St John’s 88, Georgetown 69— This is Patrick Ewing’s fifth year coaching the Hoyas; his record in Big East conference games? 26-47.

At what point does Ewing go on the hot seat? He’s the school’s most prominent basketball alumnus, but 26-47 is 26-47.

4) Iona 78, Niagara 55— I hear this Pitino guy is a pretty good coach; Gaels are 6-0 in the MAAC- they’re 26-9 in 1.5 years under the Hall of Fame coach.

3) Brooklyn Nets star Kevin Durant sprained his knee, is out 4-6 weeks.

2) If you like high school basketball, ESPNU has four consecutive games on Monday, starting at 11am. Teams from all over the country facing off.

1) If you coach/teach basketball to kids, do this demonstration; show them that a basketball hoop is exactly two basketballs wide. This surprises most everyone; with the rim ten feet high, it doesn’t look that big, but you can place two basketballs in a hoop— sometimes that makes a shooter more confident.
 

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, January 17

Purdue @ Illinois

— Purdue (14-2, 3-2) ranked #6 by KenPom
— Tempo: #185
— Experience: #228
— Continuity: #18
— Purdue won six of its last seven games.
— Boilers won three of four top 50 games.
— Purdue is shooting 40.1% on arc (#5), 58.1% inside arc (+6)
— Boilers are grabbing 38.9% of their misses (#6)
— Purdue’s schedule, to this point: #85
— bench minutes: #17

— Illinois (13-3, 6-0) ranked #11 by KenPom
— Tempo: #188
— Experience: #81
— Continuity: #153
— Illinois won six in row, 11 of last 12 games.
— Illini split their four top 50 games.
— Illinois is grabbing 41% of its misses (#1)
— Opponents are shooting 42.4% inside arc (#8)
— Illinois schedule, to this point: #39
— bench minutes: #240

— Big 14 home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-4 ATS.
— Illinois won last three series games, by 26-17-8 points.
— Purdue lost four of last five visits to Champaign.

LaSalle @ St Joe’s
— LaSalle (5-8, 0-3) ranked #259 by KenPom
— Tempo: #125
— Experience: #221
— Continuity: #82
— LaSalle lost its last four games.
— Explorers’ three A-14 losses are by 8-19-4 points.
— LaSalle is 0-5 against teams ranked in top 150.
— Explorers’ best win: 76-74 over #218 Penn.
— LaSalle’s schedule, to this point: #330
— bench minutes: #70

— St Joe’s (7-7, 1-2) ranked #144 by KenPom
— Tempo: #43
— Experience: #224
— Continuity: #93
— St Joe’s lost three of its last four games.
— Hawks are 5-0 if they allow less than 70 points, 2-7 if they allow 70+.
— St Joe’s is 4-0 against teams ranked outside top 200.
— Opponents are shooting 44.7% inside arc (#25)
— St Joe’s schedule to this point: #118
— bench minutes: #302

— A-14 home favorites are 7-10 ATS.
— Teams split last eight series games.
— LaSalle lost six of last seven visits to St Joe’s.

Drexel @ Hofstra
— Drexel (7-6, 2-1) ranked #157 by KenPom
— Tempo: #232
— Experience: #63
— Continuity: #85
— Drexel won three of its last four games.
— Dragons new 0-2 in overtime, losing to Tulane/Princeton
— Drexel is 2-6 vs teams ranked in top 150.
— Dragons are #38 team in country on defensive boards.
— Drexel’s schedule, to this point: #159
— bench minutes: #124

— Hofstra (10-7, 2-2) ranked #124 by KenPom
— Tempo: #111
— Experience: #104
— Continuity: #277
— Hofstra split its first four CAA games.
— Pride is 7-3 in last ten D-I games, overall.
— Hofstra is shooting 55.2% inside arc (#31)
— Opponents are shooting 39.9% on arc (#350)
— Hofstra’s schedule, to this point: #49
— bench minutes: #278

— CAA home favorites are 4-5 ATS
— Hofstra won last eight series games.
— Drexel lost last three trips to Long Island, by 2-5-14-13 points.

Utah @ Arizona State
— Utah (8-9, 1-6) ranked #113 by KenPom
— Tempo: #197
— Experience: #137
— Continuity: #318
— Utah lost last five games, four by 12+ points.
— Utes’ only Pac-12 win: 66-58 over #114 California.
— Utah’s best win: 55-50 over #60 Fresno State.
— Pac-12 opponents are shooting 55.3% inside arc (#11 of 12)
— Utah’s schedule, to this point: #52
— bench minutes: #48

— Arizona State (5-9, 1-3) ranked #125 by KenPom
— Tempo: #157
— Experience: #223
— Continuity: #324
— ASU lost last three games, by 1-24-15 points.
— Sun Devils split four games vs teams ranked outside top 100.
— ASU is shooting 44.7% inside arc (#317), 27.9% on arc (#338)
— Opponents are shooting 46.5% inside arc (#57)
— Arizona State’s schedule, to this point: #7
— bench minutes: #107

— Pac-12 home favorites of 5 or less points are 6-2 ATS.
— Teams split last six series games.
— Utes won four of last five visits to Tempe.

Penn @ Princeton
— Penn (6-11, 3-1) ranked #218 by KenPom
— Tempo: #182
— Experience: #270
— Continuity: #n/a
— Penn won three of first four Ivy League games.
— Quakers lost seven of eight true road games.
— Penn’s best win: 77-73 over #161 Brown
— Quakers have #261 eFG% defense in country.
— Penn’s schedule, to this point: #95
— bench minutes: #59

— Princeton (13-3, 3-0) ranked #143 by KenPom
— Tempo: #224
— Experience: #72
— Continuity: #n/a
— Princeton won its last seven D-I games.
— Tigers’ last two wins were by two points each.
— Princeton is 6-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
— Tigers have #10 eFG% in country.
— Princeton’s schedule, to this point: #317
— bench minutes: #323

— Ivy League home favorites are 6-4 ATS.
— Princeton won last four series games.
— Penn lost nine of last ten visits to Princeton.

Yale @ Brown
— Yale (7-8, 1-0) ranked #145 by KenPom
— Tempo: #83
— Experience: #138
— Continuity: #n/a
— Yale lost three of its last four games.
— Bulldogs won Ivy opener, 96-69 over Cornell.
— Yale is 6-1 vs teams ranked outside top 150.
— Bulldogs’ best win: 91-71 over #156 UMass.
— Yale’s schedule, to this point: #135
— bench minutes: #127

— Brown (9-10, 1-3) ranked #161 by KenPom
— Tempo: #152
— Experience: #245
— Continuity: #n/a
— Brown lost six of its last seven games.
— Bears’ three Ivy losses are by 4-12-2 points.
— Brown’s best win: 65-62 over #123 Bradley.
— Bears lost seven of eight games vs top 150 teams.
— Brown s schedule, to this point: #98
— bench minutes: #128

— Ivy League home favorites are 6-4 ATS.
— Yale won last four series games.
— Bulldogs won five of last six visits to Brown.

Indiana @ Nebraska
— Indiana (12-4, 3-3) ranked #26 by KenPom
— Tempo: #159
— Experience: #301
— Continuity: #172
— Indiana won five of its last seven games.
— Hoosiers lost all four of their true road games.
— Indiana is 8-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
— Opponents are shooting 40.3% inside arc (#2)
— Indiana’s schedule, to this point: #131
— bench minutes: #137

— Nebraska (6-12, 0-7) ranked #159 by KenPom
— Tempo: #19
— Experience: #314
— Continuity: #285
— Nebraska lost five in row, 10 of last 11 games.
— Last three games, Huskers gave up 93-81-92 points.
— Nebraska is #324 team in country on defensive boards.
— Huskers’ best win: 88-74 over #220 Kennesaw State.
— Nebraska’s schedule, to this point: #30
— bench minutes: #184

— Big 14 single digit home underdogs are 4-7 ATS.
— Indiana won last four series games.
— Hoosiers won last two visits here, by 8-8 points.
 

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Delaware @ Northeastern
— Delaware (4-6, 2-1) ranked #139 by KenPom
— Tempo: #226
— Experience: #111
— Continuity: #58
— Delaware lost three of its last five games.
— Blue Hens’ last five games were all decided by 5 or less points.
— Delaware is 6-1 against teams ranked outside top 200.
— Blue Hens are shooting 54.3% inside arc (#47)
— Delaware’s schedule, to this point: #233
— bench minutes: #353

— Northeastern (6-10, 0-5) ranked #224 by KenPom
— Tempo: #293
— Experience: #126
— Continuity: #122
— Northeastern lost its last six games.
— Huskies are turning ball over 21.3% of time (#311)
— Northeastern is 2-4 against teams ranked in top 150.
— Huskies’ best win: 59-47 over #130 Southern Illinois.
— Northeastern’s schedule, to this point: #283
— bench minutes: #189

— CAA home teams are 7-4 ATS, if spread is 5 or less points.
— Delaware won three of last four series games.
— Blue Hens won last two visits here, 82-80/76-74.

Harvard @ Dartmouth
— Harvard (9-5, 1-1) ranked #197 by KenPom
— Tempo: #122
— Experience: #198
— Continuity: #n/a
— Harvard won three of its last four games.
— Crimson lost four of its five true road games.
— Harvard’s best win: 89-84 in OT over #135 Colgate.
— Opponents are shooting 39.6% inside arc (#346)
— Harvard’s schedule, to this point: #310
— bench minutes: #178

— Dartmouth (4-10, 1-2) ranked #242 by KenPom
— Tempo: #327
— Experience: #34
— Continuity: #n/a
— Dartmouth lost nine of its last ten games.
— Big Green is shooting 44.7% inside arc (#318)
— Dartmouth’s Ivy League losses are by 8-10 points.
— Big Green has top 200 wins over Georgetown/Brown.
— Dartmouth’s schedule, to this point: #96
— bench minutes: #223

— Harvard won seven of last eight series games.
— Crimson won three of last four visits to Dartmouth.

Portland @ LMU
— Portland (10-7, 1-1) ranked #251 by KenPom
— Tempo: #115
— Experience: #350
— Continuity: #346
— Portland lost four of its last six games.
— Pilots are 0-6 vs teams ranked in top 200.
— Opponents are shooting 46.7% inside arc (#63)
— This is third game in five nights for the Pilots
— Portland’s schedule, to this point: #341
— bench minutes: #319

— LMU (7-7, 0-2) ranked #118 by KenPom
— Tempo: #180
— Experience: #74
— Continuity: #133
— LMU lost four of its last five games.
— Lions lost its first two WCC games, by 24-5 points.
— LMU is 4-0 against teams ranked outside top 200.
— Lions are turning ball over 22.2% of time (#332)
— LMU’s schedule, to this point: #69
— bench minutes: #304

— WCC home favorites are 6-4 ATS.
— LMU won last five series games.
— Pilots lost last three visits to LMU, by 6-12-12 points.

Wyoming @ Nevada
— Wyoming (12-2, 1-0) ranked #70 by KenPom
— Tempo: #280
— Experience: #195
— Continuity: #80
— Wyoming won at Utah St Saturday, its first game in three weeks.
— Cowboys’s two losses are to Pac-12 teams (Arizona/Stanford)
— Wyoming has wins at Washington, Utah St, Grand Canyon.
— Cowboys are shooting 57.9% inside arc (#7)
— Wyoming’s schedule, to this point: #141
— bench minutes: #351

— Nevada (8-6, 2-1) ranked #106 by KenPom
— Tempo: #27
— Experience: #171
— Continuity: #59
— Nevada won six of last eight D-I games.
— Wolf Pack is 0-5 against top 100 teams.
— Nevada’s best win: 68-63 over #118 LMU.
— Opponents are shooting 51.3% inside arc (#241)
— Nevada’s schedule, to this point: #75
— bench minutes: #267

— Mountain West home favorites are 4-4 ATS.
— Wyoming won last three series games, by 3-7-5 points.
— Cowboys lost last three visits to Reno, by 3-1-9 points.

Drake @ Southern Illinois
— Drake (12-5, 3-1) ranked #95 by KenPom
— Tempo: #290
— Experience: #39
— Continuity: #32
— Drake won eight of its last ten D-I games.
— Bulldogs are 1-5 vs teams ranked in top 150.
— Drake’s best win: 73-70 over #99 Richmond.
— Bulldogs are grabbing 31.3% of their misses (#91)
— Drake’s schedule, to this point: #274
— bench minutes: #163

— Southern Illinois (9-7, 2-2) ranked #130 by KenPom
— Tempo: #352
— Experience: #176
— Continuity: #113
— SIU lost last two games, by total if six points.
— Salukis lost three of four games vs top 100 teams.
— SIU’s best win: 67-63 vs #78 Colorado.
— Salukis are #20 in country on defensive boards.
— Southern Illinois schedule, to this point: #261
— bench minutes: #301

— MVC home underdogs are 6-2 ATS.
— Teams split last eight series games.
— Drake lost four of last six visits to Carbondale.

UNLV @ San Jose State
— UNLV (3-12, 1-4) ranked #136 by KenPom
— Tempo: #179
— Experience: #98
— Continuity: #130
— UNLV is 0-7 vs top 100 teams, 9-0 vs everyone else.
— Rebels are 0-2 in true road games, losing by 19-21 points.
— UNLV won five of last seven games, overall.
— Rebels are shooting 30.6% on arc (#285)
— UNLV’s schedule, to this point: #41
— bench minutes: #19

— San Jose State (7-7, 0-2) ranked #287 by KenPom
— Tempo: #243
— Experience: #313
— Continuity: #267
— San Jose State lost last three D-I games, by 22-20-36 points.
— Spartans lost five of six games vs teams in top 200.
— San Jose State’s best win: 78-76 over #163 Fullerton.
— Spartans are shooting 47.2% inside arc (#260)
— San Jose State’s schedule, to this point: #184
— bench minutes: #271

— Mountain West home underdogs are 3-3 ATS.
— UNLV won last eight series games.
— Rebels won their last five visits to San Jose.
 

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NCAAB

Monday, January 17


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Trend Report
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9qVVUwd.png



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Purdue is 2-7 ATS in the past nine games overall.
Purdue is 6-3-1 ATS in the past 10 road games.
Illinois is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 games overall.
Illinois is 5-1 ATS in the past six games at home.
Illinois is 7-1 ATS in the past eight games as a favorite.
Illinois is 5-0 ATS in the past five games as a home favorite.
The OVER is 4-0 in the past four games overall for Purdue.
The OVER is 9-2-1 in the past 12 games overall for Illinois.
Illinois is 6-3-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings.
The home team is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight meetings.
 

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MONDAY, JANUARY 17
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


ND at HOW 02:30 PM
HOW +11.0
+500

MSM at MW 03:00 PM
MSM +3.0
O 119.5

+500 +500

LIU at SFBK 03:00 PM
O 146.5
+500

JMU at ELON 04:00 PM
ELON +3.0
U 144.0
+500 +500

UTAH at ASU 04:00 PM
UTAH +2.0
O 136.0
+500 +500

LAS at STJOE 04:00 PM
O 149.5
+500

DREX at HOF 04:00 PM
HOF -8.5
+500

PENN at PRIN 04:00 PM
PRIN -3.5
U 146.5

+500 +500

UMBC at STON 04:00 PM
UMBC +3.5
+500

YALE at BRWN 05:00 PM
YALE +1.0
U 142.5
+500 +500

TXSO at JKST 06:00 PM
TXSO -1.0
U 129.0
+500 +500

UNCW at COFC 07:00 PM
UNCW +7.5
+500

SFPA at BRY 07:00 PM
U 149.5
+500

FDU at WAG 07:00 PM
FDU +17.0
O 145.5
+500 +500

CCSU at SH 07:00 PM
SH -8.5
U 140.5
+500 +500

MER at CIT 07:00 PM
U 151.5
+500

WYO at NEV 07:00 PM
WYO +2.5
O 150.5
+500 +500

KENN at UNF 07:00 PM
U 143.5
+500

BEL at SIUE 07:00 PM
O 147.5
+500

DRKE at SIU 08:00 PM
DRKE -2.0
O 131.0
+500 +500

PV at ALCN 08:30 PM
O 143.0
+500

PRST at SUU 09:00 PM
SUU -10.5
+500

UNLV at SJSU 09:00 PM
UNLV -8.0
O 140.5
+500 +500

SEA at CALBA 10:00 PM
SEA -1.5
+500
 

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JANUARY'S NCAA BASKETBALL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

Date .................W-L-T..............%.................Units

01/17/2022....18-16-1........52.94%.........+2.00
01/16/2022.......5-4-1........55.00%..........+3.00
01/15/2022....35-44-2........44.44%..........-67.00
01/14/2022.......3-2-0.........60.00%..........+4.00
01/13/2022....14-19-1........42.42%...........-34.50
01/12/2022....22-25-0.........46.80%..........-27.50
01/10/2022.......8-9-0..........47.06%............-9.50
01/09/2022.......5-7-2..........42.86%..........-13.50
01/08/2022....47-57-0..........45.19%..........-78.50
01/07/2022........9-9-1.........50.00%...........- 4.50
01/06/2022.....22-17-0.........56.41%.........+16.50
01/05/2022.....12-14-1.........46.30%..........-17.00
01/04/2022.....17-32-0..........34.69%..........-91.00
01/03/2022.........5-3-0..........62.50%.........+ 8.50
01/02/2022.......11-3-1..........76.67%.........+38.50

TOTALS........233-261-6.........47.16%..........-270.50

BEST BETS:

01/17/2022...........10-7-0...........58.82%.........+11.50
01/16/2022............5-4-1............55.55%..........+3.00
01/15/2022.........19-19-0...........50.00%...........-9.50
01/14/2022............3-2-0............60.00%..........+4.00
01/13/2022...........12-10-1..........54.54%.........+5.00
01/12/2022..........12-13-0...........48.00%.........-11.50
01/10/2021..........4-4-0.............50.00%...........-2.00
01/09/2022............5-4-1.............55.55%..........+3.00
01/08/2022.........28-23-0............54.90%.........+13.50
01/07/2022.............5-5-1............50.00%...........- 2.50
01/06/2022...........12-9-0............57.14%..........+10.50
01/05/2022.......... 9-11-0............45.00%...........-15.50
01/04/2022...........3-11-0............21.42%...........-45.50
01/03/2022.............3-3-0.............50.00%..........- 1.50
01/02/2022.............5-1-0.............83.33%.........+19.50

TOTALS............135-123-0.............52.32%..........-21.00


01/17/2022
 

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Armadillo Sports

Tuesday’s 6-pack:

— Purdue 96, Illinois 89, 2OT— This seemed like a Final Four game.
— Wyoming 77, Nevada 67— Cowboys are a surprising 13-2.
— NC-Wilmington 86, Charleston 78— Seahawks are 3-0 in CAA.
— Wagner 95, FDU 64— Seahawks shot 67% inside the arc.
— Weber State 78, Idaho State 61— Weber is atop Big Sky at 5-1.
— Arizona State 64, Utah 62— ASU was a horrendous 3-12 on foul line.

Quote of the Day
“People give effort to what is important to them.”
Unknown

Tuesday’s quiz
Where did Ben Simmons play his one year of college basketball?
Hint: His team didn’t make the NCAA tournament

Monday’s quiz
Tommy Maddox was the Steelers’ QB before Ben Roethlisberger.

Sunday’s quiz
Before Saturday, Cincinnati’s last playoff win was in 1990; Boomer Esiason played QB for the Bengals that day.
(Really obscure trivia: Cody Carlson played QB for Houston that day)

********************************

Tuesday’s Den: What are Final Four teams made up of?

13) Last four national titles were won by a #1-seed; last national champ that wasn’t a #1-seed? Villanova, six years ago- they were a #2-seed.

12) eFG% (FG%, but where a 3-pointer counts as 1.5 made baskets) seems to be a big indicator of NCAA Turney success.

Last four tournaments, nine of 16 Final Four teams were in the top 40 nationally in eFG%; 12 of 20 were in the top 100. Last three national champs ranked #1-19-7 on eFG%.

11) Depth means very little; last four years, only one of 16 Final Four teams was in the top 150 in bench minutes for that season. Longer TV timeouts, refs calling fewer fouls fuels that theory.

10) Last four Final Four’s teams, by seed #:
#1— seven
#2— two
#3— three
#5— one
#7— one
#11— two

9) Defensive eFG% is also a solid indicator:
— 13 of last 16 Final Four teams were in top 100 in eFG% defense
— 8 of last 16 were in the top 50.

There are always exceptions, which is what makes handicapping interesting; Baylor won the national title last year- their eFG% defense was ranked #121, but they ranked #4 in forcing turnovers.

South Carolina made the Final Four in 2017; I wouldn’t have bet on them with your money, but they got there as a #7-seed. Like Baylor, they were strong at forcing turnovers (#5)

I have 17 categories on my chart here; 14 of the last 16 Final Four teams were in the top 11 nationally, in at least one category.

8) 3-point shooting has become more and more important; last three tournaments, 9 of 12 Final Four teams ranked in the top 50 in 3-point shooting %age.

7) Teams that get a lot of their points on the foul line don’t get to the Final Four much, adding to the theory that refs call fewer fouls in March Madness.

Last four tournaments, only 1 of 16 Final Four teams (that 2017 South Carolina squad) ranked in the top 100 in %age of points scored on foul line. No other team ranked in the top 150.

6) Strength of schedule is an indicator; 12 of last 16 Final Four teams ranked in top 50 in strength schedule; Gonzaga’s two Final Four trips are two of the four schedules that fell outside the top 50 (72-89).

Today’s Gonzaga program is like UNLV was thirty years ago; very big fish in a small pond.

5) Does experience matter? 12 of last 16 Final Four teams were in top 100 of experience; only 6 of 16 Final Four teams were in the top 100 of continuity.

Sadly, there is no metric for TALENT; good/great players win championships, in any sport.

So what teams, at this point, figure to be favorites in March:
4) eFG% leaders:
— Gonzaga
— Purdue
— Davidson
— Loyola, Chi

Also, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arizona, Kentucky

3) defensive eFG% leaders:
— Indiana
— LSU
— San Diego State
— Arizona

Also, VCU, USC, Gonzaga, UConn

2) 3-point %age leaders:
— South Dakota State
— Davidson
— Purdue
— North Carolina

Also, Colorado State, Michigan State, Loyola Chi, Murray State

1) Teams with most experience:
— Providence
— Florida
— Texas
— St Bonaventure

Also, Buffalo, Seton Hall, SMU, Drake

These numbers will change over the six weeks; we’ll keep an eye on them before we predict who will be in the Final Four
 

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Tuesday, January 18


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Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, January 18

Baylor @ West Virginia

— Baylor (14-2, 3-2) ranked #2 by KenPom
— Tempo: #152
— Experience: #210
— Continuity: #240
— Baylor lost last two games, scoring 62-54 points.
— Bears are 3-0 in true road games, winning by 8-5-12 points.
— Baylor forces turnovers 25.2% of time (#10)
— Bears are grabbing 38.1% of their misses (#7)
— Baylor’s schedule, to this point: #69
— bench minutes: #114

— West Virginia (13-3, 2-2) ranked #44 by KenPom
— Tempo: #193
— Experience: #67
— Continuity: #182
— West Virginia split its first four Big X games.
— WVU is forcing turnovers 25.1% of time (#11)
— West Virginia is 6-3 against top 100 teams.
— WVU is #333 team in country on defensive boards.
— West Virginia’s schedule, to this point: #56
— bench minutes: #151

— Big X home underdogs are 6-3 ATS.
— Baylor won four of last five series games.
— Bears won two of last three visits to Morgantown.

Davidson @ VCU
— Davidson (14-2, 4-0) ranked #47 by KenPom
— Tempo: #318
— Experience: #192
— Continuity: #76
— Davidson won its last 12 games.
— Wildcats are 4-0 in A-14, winning by 15-4-10-3 points.
— Davidson is shooting 41.9% on the arc (#2)
— Wildcats are #21 team in country on defensive boards.
— Davidson’s schedule, to this point: #152
— bench minutes: #285

— VCU (10-5, 3-1) ranked #74 by KenPom
— Tempo: #162
— Experience: #223
— Continuity: #160
— VCU won seven of its last eight games.
— Rams are forcing turnovers 26.2% of time (#4)
— VCU also have #2 eFG% defense in country.
— Rams are 3-4 against top 100 teams.
— VCU’s schedule to this point: #47
— bench minutes: #53

— A-14 home favorites of 8 or less points are 3-8 ATS.
— Davidson is 5-3 in last eight series games.
— Wildcats lost 73-62/64-52 in last two trips to VCU.

St Bonaventure @ Dayton
— St Bonaventure (10-3, 2-0) ranked #62 by KenPom
— Tempo: #282
— Experience: #20
— Continuity: #12
— St Bonaventure won first two A-14 games, by 4-20 points.
— Bonnies won only true road game in OT at LaSalle
— St Bonaventure is #69 team in country on defensive boards.
— Bonnies won four of six games vs top 100 teams.
— St Bonaventure’s schedule, to this point: #98
— bench minutes: #357 (2nd-least in country)

— Dayton (11-6, 3-1) ranked #86 by KenPom
— Tempo: #327
— Experience: #358
— Continuity: #292
— Dayton won last three games, giving up 57.7 ppg.
— Flyers are shooting 56.5% inside arc (#16)
— Dayton won five of its seven top 100 games.
— Flyers are a top 25 rebounding team in country.
— Dayton’s schedule, to this point: #202
— bench minutes: #100

— A-14 home favorites of 8 or less points are 3-8 ATS.
— Dayton won last six series games.
— Bonnies lost last four visits here, by 4-10-26-3 points.

Iona @ Monmouth
— Iona (14-3, 6-0) ranked #79 by KenPom
— Tempo: #43
— Experience: #114
— Continuity: #184
— Iona won eight of its last nine games.
— Gaels are 6-0 SU in MAAC (2-4 ATS)
— Iona is getting 22.3% of its points on foul line (#14)
— Gaels’ three losses are all to teams in top 75.
— Iona’s schedule, to this point: #134
— bench minutes: #188

— Monmouth (10-5, 2-2) ranked #130 by KenPom
— Tempo: #147
— Experience: #11
— Continuity: #156
— Monmouth lost last three games, giving up 76 ppg.
— Four of their five losses are by 6 or less points.
— Opponents are shooting 44.8% inside arc (#26)
— Hawks’ best win: 61-59 over #67 Cincinnati.
— Arizona State’s schedule, to this point: #93
— bench minutes: #336

— MAAC single digit home underdogs are 7-4 ATS.
— Monmouth is 6-4 in last ten series games.

North Carolina @ Miami
— North Carolina (12-4, 4-1) ranked #24 by KenPom
— Tempo: #47
— Experience: #231
— Continuity: #97
— North Carolina won nine of its last eleven games.
— Tar Heels lost four of their six top 100 games.
— North Carolina is #4 team in country on defensive boards.
— Tar Heels are shooting 39.8% on arc (#6)
— North Carolina’s schedule, to this point: #45
— bench minutes: #294

— Miami (13-4, 5-1) ranked #83 by KenPom
— Tempo: #133
— Experience: #154
— Continuity: #236
— Miami won nine of its last ten games.
— Hurricanes are 6-4 against top 100 teams.
— Miami has #314 eFG% defense in country.
— Hurricanes are shooting 53.7% inside arc (#58)
— Miami’s schedule, to this point: #48
— bench minutes: #328

— ACC home underdogs are 4-5 ATS.
— North Carolina won seven of last nine series games.
— Teams split last four meetings played here.

Kansas @ Oklahoma
— Kansas (14-2, 3-1) ranked #8 by KenPom
— Tempo: #70
— Experience: #138
— Continuity: #70
— Kansas won 10 of its last 11 games.
— Jayhawks are shooting 57.3% inside arc (#7)
— Kansas won seven of its nine top 100 games.
— Jayhawks are grabbing 34.8% of their misses (#26)
— Kansas schedule, to this point: #30
— bench minutes: #168

— Oklahoma (12-5, 2-3) ranked #34 by KenPom
— Tempo: #241
— Experience: #64
— Continuity: #273
— Oklahoma lost three of its last four games.
— Sooners are 5-4 against top 100 teams.
— Oklahoma is turning ball over 21.6% of time (#318)
— Sooners are shooting 60.2% inside arc (#3)
— Oklahoma’s schedule, to this point: #63
— bench minutes: #265

— Big X home underdogs are 6-3 ATS.
— Kansas won 10 of last 13 series games.
— Jayhawks lost three of last four visits to Norman.
 

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Butler @ UConn
— Butler (9-7, 2-3) ranked #123 by KenPom
— Tempo: #348
— Experience: #194
— Continuity: #73
— Butler lost four of its last six games.
— Bulldogs lost seven of their eight top 100 games.
— Butler’s best win: 66-62 at #34 Oklahoma.
— Bulldogs are turning ball over 20.2% of time (#266)
— Butler’s schedule, to this point: #16
— bench minutes: #85

— UConn (11-4, 2-2) ranked #20 by KenPom
— Tempo: #245
— Experience: #125
— Continuity: #35
— UConn split its last six games.
— Huskies are 6-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
— UConn are rebounding 37.7% of its misses (#9).
— Opponents are shooting 41.7% inside arc (#5)
— UConn’s schedule, to this point: #83
— bench minutes: #113

— Big East double digit home underdogs are 3-2 ATS.
— UConn beat Butler twice LY, by 12-12 points.

Kansas State @ Texas
— Kansas State (13-4, 3-2) ranked #16 by KenPom
— Tempo: #351
— Experience: #17
— Continuity: #267
— K-State lost four of its last five games.
— Wildcats are 2-7 against top 100 teams.
— K-State’s best two wins: #15 Texas Tech/#91 Wichita State.
— Wildcats are shooting 42.9% inside arc in Big X games.
— Kansas State’s schedule, to this point: #235
— bench minutes: #137

— Texas (13-4, 3-2) ranked #16 by KenPom
— Tempo: #351
— Experience: #17
— Continuity: #267
— Texas won seven of its last nine games.
— Longhorns split their four top 100 games.
— Texas is shooting 54.3% inside arc (#49)
— Longhorns are forcing turnovers 26.3% of time (#3)
— Texas schedule, to this point: #235
— bench minutes: #137

— Big X double digit favorites are 1-4 ATS.
— Texas won last four series games, three by 11+ points.
— K-State 70-59/82-67 in last two visits to Austin.

Wisconsin @ Northwestern
— Wisconsin (14-2, 5-1) ranked #27 by KenPom
— Tempo: #246
— Experience: #290
— Continuity: #227
— Wisconsin won six in row, 12 of last 13 games.
— Badgers scored 55-58 points in their two losses.
— Wisconsin won eight of its ten top 100 games.
— Badgers are shooting 30.3% on arc (#295)
— Wisconsin’s schedule, to this point: #5
— bench minutes: #298

— Northwestern (9-6, 2-4) ranked #53 by KenPom
— Tempo: #154
— Experience: #187
— Continuity: #71
— Northwestern lost four of its last five games.
— Wildcats did upset Michigan State in their last game.
— Northwestern lost six of its eight top 100 games.
— Opponents are shooting 44.4% inside arc (#22)
— Northwestern’s schedule, to this point: #106
— bench minutes: #79

— Big 14 single digit home underdogs are 4-7 ATS this season.
— Wisconsin won last six series games.
— Badgers won last three trips to Evanston, by 6-5-17 points.

Iowa State @ Texas Tech
— Iowa State (14-2, 2-3) ranked #26 by KenPom
— Tempo: #200
— Experience: #94
— Continuity: #339
— Iowa State is 2-3 in Big X, after a 12-0 pre-conference mark.
— Cyclones are forcing turnovers 24.6% of time in Big X games.
— Iowa State won six of its nine top 100 games.
— Cyclones are 1-2 in true road tilts (won 64-58 at Creighton)
— Iowa State’s schedule, to this point: #70
— bench minutes: #219

— Texas Tech (13-4, 3-2) ranked #15 by KenPom
— Tempo: #310
— Experience: #49
— Continuity: #302
— Texas Tech won three of its last four games.
— Opponents are shooting 43.9% inside arc (#15)
— Texas Tech split its eight top 100 games.
— Red Raiders are rebounding 36.1% of their misses (#16)
— Texas Tech’s schedule, to this point: #165
— bench minutes: #49

— Big X single digit home favorites are 6-3 ATS.
— Cyclones beat Texas 51-47 at home January 5th.
— Texas Tech won five of last six series games.
— Iowa State lost 72-52/81-54 in last two visits to Lubbock.

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
— Tennessee (11-5, 2-3) ranked #14 by KenPom
— Tempo: #102
— Experience: #287
— Continuity: #198
— Tennessee lost three of its last five games.
— Vols are forcing turnovers 25.3% of time (#9)
— Tennessee lost five of its eight top 100 games.
— SEC opponents are shooting 39.8% on arc
— Tennessee’s schedule, to this point: #14
— bench minutes: #46

— Vanderbilt (10-6, 2-2) ranked #77 by KenPom
— Tempo: #249
— Experience: #276
— Continuity: #187
— Vanderbilt split its first four SEC games.
— Road team won all four of those games.
— Commodores lost four of their six top 100 games.
— Vanderbilt is forcing turnovers 24% of time (#19)
— Vanderbilt’s schedule, to this point: #102
— bench minutes: #73

— SEC home underdogs are 4-6 ATS.
— Tennessee won last eight series games.
— Vols won their last five visits to Nashville.

Duke @ Florida State
— Duke (14-2, 4-1) ranked #10 by KenPom
— Tempo: #98
— Experience: #344
— Continuity: #241
— Duke won seven of its last eight games.
— Blue Devils split their two true road games.
— Duke won four of its six top 100 games.
— Blue Devils are shooting 56.1% inside arc (#20)
— Duke’s schedule, to this point: #163
— bench minutes: #313

— Florida State (10-5, 4-2) ranked #54 by KenPom
— Tempo: #171
— Experience: #237
— Continuity: #246
— FSU won five of its last six games.
— Seminoles are forcing turnovers 23.4% of time (#25)
— FSU lost four of its six top 100 games.
— Seminoles are 5-2 in games decided by 5 or less points.
— Florida State’s schedule, to this point: #38
— bench minutes: #88

— ACC home underdogs are 4-5 ATS.
— Duke won five in row, nine of last ten series games.
— Duke won four of last five visits to Tallahassee.

Utah State @ Fresno State
— Utah State (10-7, 1-3) ranked #65 by KenPom
— Tempo: #181
— Experience: #68
— Continuity: #214
— Utah State lost four of its last six games.
— Aggies lost last two games, by total of 7 points.
— Aggies lost five of their seven top 100 games.
— Utah State is shooting 56% inside arc (#23)
— Utah State’s schedule, to this point: #57
— bench minutes: #247

— Fresno State (12-4, 2-1) ranked #60 by KenPom
— Tempo: #353
— Experience: #195
— Continuity: #24
— Fresno State won five of its last seven games.
— Opponents are shooting 45.1% inside arc (#34)
— Fresno State lost two of its three top 100 games.
— Bulldogs are #19 team in country on defensive boards.
— Fresno State’s schedule, to this point: #195
— bench minutes: #212

— Mountain West home favorites are 4-5 ATS.
— Utah State won last six series games.
— Aggies won their last five visits to Fresno.
 

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Baylor has failed to cover the spread in two straight games.
West Virginia has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games.
West Virginia has gone OVER the point total in four of its last five games.


Kansas has failed to go OVER the point total in four of its last six games.
Oklahoma has covered the spread in three of its last four games when playing as the underdog.
Oklahoma has failed to cover the spread in two straight games.


Both Iowa State and Texas Tech have gone UNDER the point total in 10 of their last 17 games.
Iowa State has covered the spread in two straight games.
Iowa State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games when playing as the underdog.
Texas Tech has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 home games.


Duke has covered the spread in two straight games.
Duke has gone UNDER the point total in three of its last four games.
Duke has covered the spread in six of its last eight games.
FSU has won 35 of its last 36 home games when playing at night.
 

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TUESDAY, JANUARY 18
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


CAN at SPC 02:00 PM
CAN +8.0
+500

BAY at WVU 05:00 PM
O 138.5
+500

WMU at AKR 06:00 PM
O 135.0
+500

NIAG at MAN 07:00 PM
MAN -1.5
U 135.0

+500 +500

KENT at EMU 07:00 PM
U 141.5
+500

KU at OKLA 07:00 PM
U 144.5
+500

SBON at DAY 07:00 PM
O 132.5
+500

MIZZ at MISS 07:00 PM
MISS -8.0
O 133.5

+500 +500

BALL at TOL 07:00 PM
BALL +13.5
U 154.5
+500 +500

DAV at VCU 07:00 PM
U 131.5
+500

IONA at MONM 07:00 PM
U 146.0
+500

OHIO at M-OH 07:00 PM
OHIO -1.0
+500

JAC at LIB 07:00 PM
U 120.0
+500

BUT at CONN 07:00 PM
CONN -13.5
+500

LIP at EKY 07:00 PM
LIP +7.0
O 165.0

+500 +500

UCF at ECU 07:00 PM
U 142.0
+500

FGCU at STET 07:00 PM
U 138.0
+500

SCAR at ARK 07:00 PM
U 153.5
+500

INDPU at OSU 07:00 PM
INDPU +33.0
O 130.5

+500 +500

MD at MICH 07:00 PM
O 136.0
+500

*********************

RICH at FOR 08:00 PM
U 138.0
+500

USF at HOU 08:00 PM
HOU -18.5
U 125.0
+500 +500

BGSU at NIU 08:00 PM
U 146.5
+500

L-IL at EVAN 08:00 PM
O 126.0
+500

KSU at TEX 08:30 PM
U 126.0
+500

******************

WIS at NW 09:00 PM
WIS -2.5
U 138.0

+500 +500

ISU at TTU 09:00 PM
TTU -8.0
U 130.5
+500 +500

TENN at VAN 09:00 PM
U 135.0
+500

AFA at BSU 09:00 PM
BSU -18.5
U 120.0

+500 +500

DUKE at FSU 09:00 PM
DUKE -5.0
+500

CLEM at SYR 09:00 PM
SYR -3.5
+500

*********************

CP at CSB 10:00 PM
CSB -7.0
U 120.0
+500 +500

USU at FRES 11:00 PM
FRES -3.0
+500

 

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JANUARY'S NCAA BASKETBALL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

Date .................W-L-T..............%.................Units

01/18/2022....19-22-2.......46.34%..........-26.00
01/17/2022....18-16-1........52.94%.........+2.00
01/16/2022.......5-4-1........55.00%..........+3.00
01/15/2022....35-44-2........44.44%..........-67.00
01/14/2022.......3-2-0.........60.00%..........+4.00
01/13/2022....14-19-1........42.42%...........-34.50
01/12/2022....22-25-0.........46.80%..........-27.50
01/10/2022.......8-9-0..........47.06%............-9.50
01/09/2022.......5-7-2..........42.86%..........-13.50
01/08/2022....47-57-0..........45.19%..........-78.50
01/07/2022........9-9-1.........50.00%...........- 4.50
01/06/2022.....22-17-0.........56.41%.........+16.50
01/05/2022.....12-14-1.........46.30%..........-17.00
01/04/2022.....17-32-0..........34.69%..........-91.00
01/03/2022.........5-3-0..........62.50%.........+ 8.50
01/02/2022.......11-3-1..........76.67%.........+38.50

TOTALS........252-283-7.........47.10%..........-296.50

BEST BETS:

01/18/2022...........9-12-0...........42.85%.........-21.00
01/17/2022...........10-7-0...........58.82%.........+11.50
01/16/2022............5-4-1............55.55%..........+3.00
01/15/2022.........19-19-0...........50.00%...........-9.50
01/14/2022............3-2-0............60.00%..........+4.00
01/13/2022...........12-10-1..........54.54%.........+5.00
01/12/2022..........12-13-0...........48.00%.........-11.50
01/10/2021..........4-4-0.............50.00%...........-2.00
01/09/2022............5-4-1.............55.55%..........+3.00
01/08/2022.........28-23-0............54.90%.........+13.50
01/07/2022.............5-5-1............50.00%...........- 2.50
01/06/2022...........12-9-0............57.14%..........+10.50
01/05/2022.......... 9-11-0............45.00%...........-15.50
01/04/2022...........3-11-0............21.42%...........-45.50
01/03/2022.............3-3-0.............50.00%..........- 1.50
01/02/2022.............5-1-0.............83.33%.........+19.50

TOTALS............143-135-0.............51.81%..........+00.00


01/18/2022
 

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