The national polls are meaningless. Study those few, crucial state polls carefully to tell you what you need to know. The more I look at it the more I once again think FLORIDA FLORIDA FLORIDA. The winner of FLORDIA wins this election. I think Ohio is in Bush's column. Another way to look at it is the winner will take at least 2 out of 3 of Ohio, Penn, Fla. Ohio goes Bush and Penn goes Kerry. Florida decides the winner once again. Slight difference from 2000 though could be if Kerry wins Fla he wins narrow instead of big like Gore would have with Fla.
It's pretty simple really, there won't be many chagnes from 2000 and Kerry needs to pick up 10. Fla gives him 27 so he could even shed 17 (e.g. Wisc and Iowa) and still win.
Ignore the national polls and watch the Florida ones carefully.
It's pretty simple really, there won't be many chagnes from 2000 and Kerry needs to pick up 10. Fla gives him 27 so he could even shed 17 (e.g. Wisc and Iowa) and still win.
Ignore the national polls and watch the Florida ones carefully.
The estimates are the close to 20,000 Floridians will lose their jobs for 3 to 6 months after the two hurricanes, but the rebuilding over time will actually add a small bit to the jobs and economy. Interesting analysis done on Marketwatch talked about potential hurricane effects causing short-term loss in economy and jobs, to be recouped starting just days after the election. Could be a bad timing break for the President.
I think the Hurricanes help Bush if anything. What could get Kerry Florida is motivation from 2000. I expect the Dems to bring in as many heavy hitters as possible to motivate the masses to excersize their right to vote and avenge the wrongs of 2000. They will especially taregt minorities. Do not underestimate this. This is a group that will vote dem if they vote, but typically has low turnout. But if they can make it "cool" to get these people to the polls and if there's a nice day in Florida (and assuming the Bushites don't put up too many roadblocks) this could have a big impact on the election. I half (or 75%) expect Republicans to stage multiple car crashes on major interstates in heavily Democratic communites. Oops, I hope I didn't give them any ideas. If you don't think the Pubs will pull out all the stops you are deluding yourselves. Hopefully there will be someone there to chronicle whatever the Repubs try to do.
Good analysis D2bets. I too think the Hurricanes will help Bush because of the $Billions of our tax dollars that he will dump into Fla to help him win re-election, I mean to help the people to recover.
Michael Moore will have his cameras in Fla. on Nov 2, to film the crime this time around.
Michael Moore will have his cameras in Fla. on Nov 2, to film the crime this time around.
Patriot, you are a nice wealth of false unemployment rates. Florida is at 4.4%, not 3%. Better than average yes, but you look foolish when you constantly skew information about unemployment to suit your tastes. If you would like to start quoting correct info on this stat, go to www.bls.gov
Employment and the economy will be helped by the hurricane aftermath starting in October, but those numbers won't be published until after the election. Therefore from purely a strategic point of view it could hurt Bush. You guys completely missed the point I was trying to make, in this day of spin and more spin, this isn't the order of things you would like to see if you were on Team Bush.
Employment and the economy will be helped by the hurricane aftermath starting in October, but those numbers won't be published until after the election. Therefore from purely a strategic point of view it could hurt Bush. You guys completely missed the point I was trying to make, in this day of spin and more spin, this isn't the order of things you would like to see if you were on Team Bush.
