Zapsterz NBA Totalz

[Zapster]

Last Season I went 108-89 (undocumented)

This season I'm 16-12-1 farting around in the contest thread.....and 3-0 in Madcapper's "best bet" threads.....but my formula isn't something I like to wager on until most teams have 10 games under their belts.

So tonight I will start this thread and update daily.

Philly UNDER 160.5 (4 Units)
Cleveland OVER 189 (4 Units)
Clippers UNDER 187 (6 Units)
Detroit OVER 186.5 (6 Units)
Sacramento OVER 194 (6 Units)
Miami UNDER 175.5 (4 Units)

 

[Zapster]

5-1 so far..... Only one play Thursday. Might as well post it now:

Orlando OVER 185.5

 

[Zapster]

The Orlando play is 4 Units.

So far formula is +21.6 Units

 

[tatehill2000]

congrats ZAPP!!!!!

nice,,,,
Tater

 

[batmanforever]

Zap vs. Tate...
Zap orlando over
tate orland under???
Who will win tonight????
I hope it will tie.

 

[Zapster]

Thanks Tate.....as they say in the backgammon world "winning is more fun"

Nilson.....uhhh....it might be tough to tie with the line at 185.5

 

[tatehill2000]

haha,,,
My pick lays in the fact I went to the game,, I saw the FREAKESH play,,,, and I say the Defense they were working on in order to pressure UTAH,,,, and others,,,
this is the next game after that one,,, I suspect they may Impliment that same defensive pressure,,,

who knows,,, sure looks like MANY dont agree with my pick though,,, UGH<,, the steam is at 187 now,,,,
Good luck to all
Tater

 

[Zapster]

I must point out that my research is FAR less extensive than taters seems to be. It is purely based on a formula.....one that picked 54.82% winners over the course of last season, but it doesn't take quirks into account. I'd be careful on this one.

Question for ya tater........the line seems to be moving upward. I got the over at 185.5...at what point do you consider it wise to middle this one ?? Maybe then nilson can get his wish and we can tie

 

[batmanforever]

Zap,
I can tell you this that Tate is the King of totals. He doesn;t like side. So sad that I love the sides and totals. I love the most is parlay. He told me to take under clipp and over cav.
I have to take the under. Orlando can't scores when they play against strong defenses.
If 1qrt.
orlando 20
Sun 22
then this game will go under for sure.
I do mathematic calculation after first qrt. 80% correct..

 

[tatehill2000]

Hi Zap...
there is more to my capping than if my azz itches,, hahahha,,, I use a simpler totals formula one Ive used for 3 years,,, it does decent,,, I have added other techniques to weed out some of the RIFF raff,,, and thats what is helping me this year,,,
If it goes over 187.5 I owuld be very suprised,,,, who knows,,, thaqt would be my middle,,,2 pts,,,,

I may go see tonights game,,,, hmmmmmmm
good luck guys,,,
Tater

 

[Zapster]

nilson....

As I said in Tater's thread, I was being cautious about this one anyway (4 unit play)....and seeing that Tater (who is tried and true) likes the Under makes me even more cautious.

If the line shoots up to 188 or 189 I will most likely go for a middle on this one. In any case I wish you luck.

As for parlays though.....unless you are parlaying two outcomes that affect each other (like side & total in the same game), you are giving up extra vig by playing two teamers at 13-5. If you MUST play unrelated parlays, you should play 3 teamers at 6-1. In any case I wish you luck.

 

[tatehill2000]

I had the line at 188 by the way,,, and Im just hopeing for a little disparity form the Orlando Camp,,, and coach exchange,,, and again,, the full court pressure PHX employed against Chic,,, I thinking our coach knows the ONLY WAY WE WILL COMPETE IN OUR DIVISION,,,is with Defense,,, theres no way we could compete offensively with Lakes,,, or SAC ,,

who knows,,,
good luck,,,
Tater

 

[Zapster]

Funny thing is....it is just one game. If there was a full slate tonight, it would most likely be one of several we were playing.

A common trap to fall into is to increase the play when there are few games being played....

At 188 I would have still made a small play on Over....at 189 I would have laid off.

 

[batmanforever]

Zap,
I still don't understand your theories about parlay.
I play and reverse action alot.
I am thinking orlando and under parlay tonight.
Spurs +orlando+under parlay..

 

[0tohero]

tate, your picks last night were on the money. Cleveland over and Clips under. I HATE going against you but tonight I have to like the over. Both teams naturally inclined to shoot. Magic maybe more tonight. Inside points the key. Orlando has NOBODY to stop Stoudemaire...several easy points. And if they close down, Phoenix will have too many looks at threes. Orlando seems to play better when they run the ball. I think we could hit 200 tonight.

 

[Zapster]

Nilson....

It is pretty straight forward. Lets say you had $100 and wanted to play a 2 team parlay t the standard 13-5 odds. If you hit you make a profit of $260.....and your bankroll is now $360 (including your original $100)

Now let's say you take the same $100 and bet it all on one game...and then (if you hit) bet everything on another game (essentially the same thing as a parlay). Your first bet would pay a profit of $90.91 so you would then bet $190.91 on the second game which would pay a profit of $173.55 and your bankroll would now be $364.46 so you would be doing better by making the plays one at a time. On three teamers it reverses though. If you bet your entire $364.46 on the third game and win, your profit is $331.33 bringing your total bankroll to $695.79 which is LESS than the $700 you would have gotten at the standard 6-1.

So if you are wagering on TWO unrelated events you should make straight wagers....but if you are into playing parlays, you maximize your equity by playing three teamers.

The key word there is UNRELATED. There are games where the favorite (or dog) covering may indicate a better chance of the total going one way or the other...or...conversely....a high scoring or low scoring game may favor the favorite or the dog...and in these cases, it does make sense to parlay....even at thr "reduced" payout. But even then, I would consider finding a third team to hook up with the other two.

 

[batmanforever]

Zap,
Thanks for the explaination.
I play parlay because the out come is great as well as action reverse too. 1=4
for example,
I play orlando 10 units
under orlando 10 units
orlando +under 50 units action reverse or parlay. If it hit will be 200 units+100+100=400 units.
The worse I will lose is 50 units.

 

[tatehill2000]

OTOHERO,,
the Under Play was honestly the fact my numbers fell close to the line,,, and I saw the Dfense (full court press for half of the quarter) Im thinking our coach is trying to work out a little different strategy for when we see LA again,,, or Utah,,, or Dallas,,, or SAC,,, whatever,, you get th picture,,, I know Im on the WRONG side for Popularity,,, Im jsut hopeing to see some Disparity on Orlandos side also,,,

The Initial Wiseguy line was 187,, and they Bet it down 1 point,,,,
good luck,,,

and as ZAPPER says,,, this is ONLY 1 game,,, Its NOT a superlock,,, Just a hunch combined along with what Ive seen,,,

Tater

 

[tatehill2000]

HEY ZAP did you get your MIDDLE????

Tater

 

[Zapster]

Tate....

Pinnacle has it now at 188.5 (Under -106). I don't think I can resist a 3 point middle with one side at reduced vig. At the same time I hate to bet against my own system, so I guess I'll split hairs and put 2 units on the Under 188.5 (I have 4 Units on Over 185.5).

Looking forward to tomorrow night when we have a full slate again !!