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Falco~<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_1674198", true); </SCRIPT>
Homie Don't Play That
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Big Top
Posts: 549
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Jeez the most bets is 9?? Tell me about these guys after they've bet 100 or more bets. The smart money is on fading these guys as they head back down to .500.
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Wrong, Falco-- totally wrong...
You follow the short-term trend and bet them until and IFFF they regress-- we don't need to understand why their picks are working, could be some little old lady w/ the proverbial hatpin-- as long as it's working, just follow the money.
Especially also, BECAUSE at the rate they're picking, they only will release 20-35 total picks for the total regular season: high percentages can & probably will be sustained for not very many more games.
Conversely, 100 games spanning multiple seasons can mean jacksquat because of fluctuations, mental decline, sickness, yada.... AND EVERYONE WILL regress to the mean for such a large sample: who can go 100-0, 90-10?
IFFF.....someone w/ a confirmed 58-62% win record over multiple seasons, gave out a pick-- what would that mean? I'd prefer to know their present season record-- say they presently have a 6-4 record: i'd listen to their analysis, because they're proven they know quite a bit, but i'd be much more inclined to use the other picks from relatively-unknown selectors: even blindly i would have no problem following them.
Peace & much success.......
