Wrong team favored? 3 quick games with some write-up

[HBGPhillyPhan]

New to posting, but have followed many of you for a couple years. Always appreciate the insight.
There are three lines that stick out to me this week, number 1 in particular:

1. Bowling Green +3 vs. Memphis
B.G. is at home. Memphis on the second leg of back to back road games. Memphis has conference rival/league top dog Cincy next week. B.G. has a senior QB and a coach (Dino Babes) destined to be hired at a Power 5 school. B.G. played well the last two weeks against Power 5 schools, winning one. Memphis has played Missouri St. and Kansas. I understand Memphis is on a 9-game winning streak and has a solid QB of their own. Anyone have thoughts or insight on this one?

2. Georgia Southern -24 vs. The Citadel
Sure, the citadel plays hard. However, QB Ellison is back for Southern as far as I know, and is the Citadel prepared for the triple option? This line may have gone up, and I think it may rise to 28.5 by game time.

3. Navy -3.5 vs. East Carolina
I played this at -3 weeks ago. Should have played it at -2 in late July. Navy has a week off to prepare. East Carolina just had a physical 4 quarter road game against Florida. They now travel to Navy and need to be prepared for the triple option this week. Navy is new to the conference so East Carolina does not typically prepare for such an offense. East Carolina also lost their starting QB a few weeks ago.

Appreciate some insight,

BC

 

[MattyMatt]

Not saying the The Citadel will cover, but they should be prepared to cover the Triple option considering they run the Flexbone themselves, and play several other teams in their Division like Wofford that do as well. Ga Southern definitely has more talent and is a decent team, so who knows. Good luck with your plays and enjoy the football this weekend...

 

[1osubucks]

How about NW? getting points @ duke, that one keeps sticking out to me..

 

[Scott602]

Memphis plays fast. Can Bowling Green keep up or slow them down. Kansas got tired in the 2nd half.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

OP, thanks for posting this and giving us your thoughts....

i think memphis is far superior to BG so i'd go the other way.... having said that i always hate giving points on the road in all but the most lopsided situations.

i like EC over navy. don't feel strongly though. navy and air force are tricky to bet i find.

no opinion on GSo and i don't handicap/bet games with an FCS team.

as per a later poster, i am definitely eyeing NW at duke. to me it just comes down to how many points to give for HFA....... and duke did look reasonably good vs. tulane. i think they played FCS last week (which almost never analyze even after the fact unless it's a shocking result)

 

[Biz]

How about NW? getting points @ duke, that one keeps sticking out to me..

I also like the Wildcats this week and Navy.

 

[GoSooners]

Memphis plays fast. Can Bowling Green keep up or slow them down. Kansas got tired in the 2nd half.

BG ran 105 plays against Maryland. They play fast too..So you could ask the same about the Memphis defense.

 

[sendacash]

BG ran 105 plays against Maryland. They play fast too..So you could ask the same about the Memphis defense.

Holy Toledo, the total has been bet all the way up to 79 after opening 69.5. Somebody better be ready to do some serious pushups come Saturday. Might as well be sprinkling a little on that ML as well if you going with the BGs here. Somewhat weird to see the line tick up to 3.5 though.

 

[HBGPhillyPhan]

Excellent point... I was not sure of their division opponents... takes my eye off G.Southern

 

[HBGPhillyPhan]

Well 2 of 3 were easy winners... if you got BG at 3.5 that won also