Would love some opinions

[Keef]

Just recently got hooked up with a local through a friend. No web sites, very old fashioned as I believe this guy is just starting out and is very small. I put in a few small correlated parlays to see if this guy was on top of things and was able to put in the following:

Team A 1st Half parlayed with Team A

1st Half Under parlayed with Game Total Under

Even got in Team A with Team B and Team A Money Line.

Also, he runs his lines based on Bodog Lines but at -110. Typically Bodog will have the fav inflated a half point with the dog -115. This guy will have the fav inflated a half point but at -110 both ways (in this example).

My question is do you think I would be doing this guy wrong by playing into these types of parlays? I have mixed feelings.

Also, any idea of the correlation between "if 1st half is under, "x" percent of the time the game total is under"?

Thanks in advance.

 

[bucsfan67]

yes, you are doing wrong, and u even admit that by saying you "were able" to put them in......it is his responsibility to know what he's doing,b ut if he's new, you arent doing anyone any favors by trying to screw him...if he realizes it, he probalby just wont pay you for your winnings......

 

[JakeT.]

Just to play devil's advocate to Bucs and create some discussion...

Say a new Verizon store opens up down the street and are new and are selling the phones at retail and not making any cash on them. In that example of a new place getting ripped off, many would say "they are just trying to get new customers for their new business". Why don't people see something similar in this instance?

Questions like those are what happens when I'm bored BTW...

 

[steaktartar]

yes, you are doing wrong, and u even admit that by saying you "were able" to put them in......it is his responsibility to know what he's doing,b ut if he's new, you arent doing anyone any favors by trying to screw him...if he realizes it, he probalby just wont pay you for your winnings......

:toast:

 

[$tinky]

Just to play devil's advocate to Bucs and create some discussion...

Say a new Verizon store opens up down the street and are new and are selling the phones at retail and not making any cash on them. In that example of a new place getting ripped off, many would say "they are just trying to get new customers for their new business". Why don't people see something similar in this instance?

Questions like those are what happens when I'm bored BTW...

A. He's not selling phones at a discount, this would be more like paying customers to take a new phone

B. He's not doing it on purpose he just does not know better.

C. Folks that bet these parlays are not the kind of customers you want to "generate"

 

[Betallsports]

Just recently got hooked up with a local through a friend. No web sites, very old fashioned as I believe this guy is just starting out and is very small. I put in a few small correlated parlays to see if this guy was on top of things and was able to put in the following:

Team A 1st Half parlayed with Team A

1st Half Under parlayed with Game Total Under

Even got in Team A with Team B and Team A Money Line.

Also, he runs his lines based on Bodog Lines but at -110. Typically Bodog will have the fav inflated a half point with the dog -115. This guy will have the fav inflated a half point but at -110 both ways (in this example).

My question is do you think I would be doing this guy wrong by playing into these types of parlays? I have mixed feelings.

Also, any idea of the correlation between "if 1st half is under, "x" percent of the time the game total is under"?

Thanks in advance.

Sorry, But this is Called...Taking a Shot !

Somewhere down the line he is going to catch on, and you will be Labeled a Cheat !

Could be worst , if the guy was anykind of wise Guy. You wouldn't be talking about it. Hard to type with your fingers broken. :drink:

 

[JakeT.]

A. He's not selling phones at a discount, this would be more like paying customers to take a new phone

B. He's not doing it on purpose he just does not know better.

C. Folks that bet these parlays are not the kind of customers you want to "generate"

:toast: Well answered. I figured I'd try to stir up discussion but you pretty much nailed it.

 

[Jack Herer]

Jake, shut the **** up.

 

[Keef]

Sorry, But this is Called...Taking a Shot !

Somewhere down the line he is going to catch on, and you will be Labeled a Cheat !

Could be worst , if the guy was anykind of wise Guy. You wouldn't be talking about it. Hard to type with your fingers broken. :drink:

Wrong, as I stated, merely testing his operation. Taking a shot would be moving decent money at this guy. That is not what I did.

 

[Keef]

So, I spoke to this guy and filled him in on what I had done and he said he was aware of this and did not mind, the exception being Side and Money Line combination. So after going over different scenarios, he okayed the following to be parlayed:

1st half total and game total
1st half side and game side

He says he looks at it like a sort of prop bet "winner of first half is winner of game" only factoring in point spreads.

So with this said, do you still feel the same about playing into these?

By the way, not asking about your thoughts on situations that could rise from this (not getting paid, being labeled a cheat, broken fingers etc.). Hypothetical situations are not what I'm interested in. I'm more interested in hearing the opinions of individuals with regards to your thoughts on playing into these now that it is known he is aware. Thanks.

 

[$tinky]

let'er rip tater chip

 

[FairWarning]

It's OK until you beat him good, then he will not allow any of them.

 

[D2bets]

So, I spoke to this guy and filled him in on what I had done and he said he was aware of this and did not mind, the exception being Side and Money Line combination. So after going over different scenarios, he okayed the following to be parlayed:

1st half total and game total
1st half side and game side

He says he looks at it like a sort of prop bet "winner of first half is winner of game" only factoring in point spreads.

So with this said, do you still feel the same about playing into these?

By the way, not asking about your thoughts on situations that could rise from this (not getting paid, being labeled a cheat, broken fingers etc.). Hypothetical situations are not what I'm interested in. I'm more interested in hearing the opinions of individuals with regards to your thoughts on playing into these now that it is known he is aware. Thanks.

From a pure winning standpoint, of course you are going to win, blindly and easily. Pure guess, but I would say you will win at least 35% and I'm assuming this is a +260 parlay meaning you only need to win about 28%. That is an enormous edge which translates to about a $25 profit on every $100 wagered.

Your biggest concern should be either getting paid or getting your ass kicked or something along those lines.