[h=1]A hard count led to hard times in one of this weekend's 'bad beats'[/h]Rob Nelson
ESPN Staff Writer
Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Information revisits the worst bad beats from the weekend's gambling action.
Closing lines are courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, and pick percentages are via Wunderdog Sports.
[h=2]Saturday[/h]
Kansas State Wildcats at Baylor Bears
Closing line: Over/under 59
Just less than 25 percent of the action was on the under in this one, and those bettors looked to be on the winning side. The game was scoreless with less than seven minutes left in the second quarter. Even after three touchdowns in final 6:43 of the half, the under was still in good shape with Kansas State leading 14-7. However, after a slow start, the points started coming bunches.
Unfortunately for those on the under, Baylor couldn't stop the Wildcats in the second half, specifically Alex Barnes. Kansas State's freshman running back racked up four touchdowns after halftime, with the fourth score pushing the total over with 3:08 left in the game. There were 42 points scored in the second half, including 21 in the final 7:28.
Final score: Kansas State 42, Baylor 21 (Game goes over)
Virginia Cavaliers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Closing line: Georgia Tech -10.5
Despite entering the game with a 2-8 record, Virginia outplayed Georgia Tech for most of the way on Saturday, outgaining the Yellow Jackets by 88 yards, possessing the ball for 38:37 and coming up with 17 more first downs.
Still, three late turnovers ultimately cost those who took Virginia and the points, including a back-breaker with just more than four minutes left. With the Cavaliers trailing 24-17, Matt Johns was picked off by Georgia Tech's Lance Austin, who returned it 24 yards to the house. This marked the fifth ATS loss for Virginia in its past six games.
Final score: Georgia Tech 31, Virginia 17 (Georgia Tech covers)
[h=2]Sunday[/h]
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions
Closing line: Lions -5
The Jaguars came into this game with a 7-2 ATS record as an underdog of more than a field goal since last season. That trend looked like it was about to continue, until an excruciating final drive by the Lions. After a Jacksonville punt with a little more than eight minutes left, Detroit had the ball and a 23-19 lead. The Lions would proceed to go a drive that must have made anyone who bet the Jaguars go crazy.
Two plays in particular are still haunting those bettors. On fourth-and-2 from the Jacksonville 46-yard line, Sen'Derrick Marks was penalized for encroachment to extend Detroit's drive. The other play came on third-and-5 from the Jacksonville 36-yard line, when the Lions were a first down away from being able to run out the clock. They got the first down, but Theo Riddick stopped the clock by going out of bounds. Four plays later, Matt Prater nailed a 43-yard field goal to put Detroit up seven with 22 seconds left. The Jaguars were outscored 10-0 in the final quarter.
Final score: Lions 26, Jaguars 19 (Lions cover)
Chicago Bears at New York Giants
Closing line: Over/under 41.5
After opening at 47.5, the over/under for this game moved all the way down to 41.5 by kickoff. Heavy winds were expected at Metlife Stadium, and that turned out to be a huge factor in this one. Playing without key offensive starters in Alshon Jeffery and Kyle Long, the Bears started strong, scoring on their first three possessions. Chicago led 16-9 at halftime, with the total on pace to go over.
In the second half, the Giants scored touchdowns on their first two possessions and took a 22-16 lead with 6:49 left in third quarter. Why the weird score? Well, the teams combined to miss three extra-point attempts, including two by former Chicago kicker Robbie Gould. Connor Barth -- the Bears' current leg -- added a missed field goal attempt early in the fourth, and that proved to be the last scoring opportunity for either team. The game ended with a 21:49 scoring drought, causing bettors who took the over to fall 3.5 points short of cashing their tickets.
Final score: Giants 22, Bears 16 (Total goes under)
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams
Closing line: Pick 'em
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Jared Goff's first start will be a tough one to forget if you took the Rams. Los Angeles led 10-0 and was driving into Dolphins territory late in the game. Faced with a fourth-and-1 with 6:45 left, coach Jeff Fisher elected to kick a field goal instead of going for it. At this point in the game, ESPN's win probability model gave the Rams more than a 97 percent chance to win.
That's when it all went downhill. Greg Zuerlein missed that 48-yard field goal attempt off the left upright, and then Miami's offense came alive. Ryan Tannehillled a pair of touchdown drives in the final minutes to give the Dolphins an improbable win. Not only will Fisher be blamed by those who bet on his Rams on Sunday, but the loss marked the 162nd of his career, tying him with Tom Landry for the second-most defeats in NFL history.
Final score: Dolphins 14, Rams 10 (Dolphins cover)
ESPN Staff Writer
Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Information revisits the worst bad beats from the weekend's gambling action.
Closing lines are courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, and pick percentages are via Wunderdog Sports.
[h=2]Saturday[/h]
Kansas State Wildcats at Baylor Bears
Closing line: Over/under 59
Just less than 25 percent of the action was on the under in this one, and those bettors looked to be on the winning side. The game was scoreless with less than seven minutes left in the second quarter. Even after three touchdowns in final 6:43 of the half, the under was still in good shape with Kansas State leading 14-7. However, after a slow start, the points started coming bunches.
Unfortunately for those on the under, Baylor couldn't stop the Wildcats in the second half, specifically Alex Barnes. Kansas State's freshman running back racked up four touchdowns after halftime, with the fourth score pushing the total over with 3:08 left in the game. There were 42 points scored in the second half, including 21 in the final 7:28.
Final score: Kansas State 42, Baylor 21 (Game goes over)
Virginia Cavaliers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Closing line: Georgia Tech -10.5
Despite entering the game with a 2-8 record, Virginia outplayed Georgia Tech for most of the way on Saturday, outgaining the Yellow Jackets by 88 yards, possessing the ball for 38:37 and coming up with 17 more first downs.
Still, three late turnovers ultimately cost those who took Virginia and the points, including a back-breaker with just more than four minutes left. With the Cavaliers trailing 24-17, Matt Johns was picked off by Georgia Tech's Lance Austin, who returned it 24 yards to the house. This marked the fifth ATS loss for Virginia in its past six games.
Final score: Georgia Tech 31, Virginia 17 (Georgia Tech covers)
[h=2]Sunday[/h]
Closing line: Lions -5
The Jaguars came into this game with a 7-2 ATS record as an underdog of more than a field goal since last season. That trend looked like it was about to continue, until an excruciating final drive by the Lions. After a Jacksonville punt with a little more than eight minutes left, Detroit had the ball and a 23-19 lead. The Lions would proceed to go a drive that must have made anyone who bet the Jaguars go crazy.
Two plays in particular are still haunting those bettors. On fourth-and-2 from the Jacksonville 46-yard line, Sen'Derrick Marks was penalized for encroachment to extend Detroit's drive. The other play came on third-and-5 from the Jacksonville 36-yard line, when the Lions were a first down away from being able to run out the clock. They got the first down, but Theo Riddick stopped the clock by going out of bounds. Four plays later, Matt Prater nailed a 43-yard field goal to put Detroit up seven with 22 seconds left. The Jaguars were outscored 10-0 in the final quarter.
Final score: Lions 26, Jaguars 19 (Lions cover)
Closing line: Over/under 41.5
After opening at 47.5, the over/under for this game moved all the way down to 41.5 by kickoff. Heavy winds were expected at Metlife Stadium, and that turned out to be a huge factor in this one. Playing without key offensive starters in Alshon Jeffery and Kyle Long, the Bears started strong, scoring on their first three possessions. Chicago led 16-9 at halftime, with the total on pace to go over.
In the second half, the Giants scored touchdowns on their first two possessions and took a 22-16 lead with 6:49 left in third quarter. Why the weird score? Well, the teams combined to miss three extra-point attempts, including two by former Chicago kicker Robbie Gould. Connor Barth -- the Bears' current leg -- added a missed field goal attempt early in the fourth, and that proved to be the last scoring opportunity for either team. The game ended with a 21:49 scoring drought, causing bettors who took the over to fall 3.5 points short of cashing their tickets.
Final score: Giants 22, Bears 16 (Total goes under)
Closing line: Pick 'em
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Jared Goff's first start will be a tough one to forget if you took the Rams. Los Angeles led 10-0 and was driving into Dolphins territory late in the game. Faced with a fourth-and-1 with 6:45 left, coach Jeff Fisher elected to kick a field goal instead of going for it. At this point in the game, ESPN's win probability model gave the Rams more than a 97 percent chance to win.
That's when it all went downhill. Greg Zuerlein missed that 48-yard field goal attempt off the left upright, and then Miami's offense came alive. Ryan Tannehillled a pair of touchdown drives in the final minutes to give the Dolphins an improbable win. Not only will Fisher be blamed by those who bet on his Rams on Sunday, but the loss marked the 162nd of his career, tying him with Tom Landry for the second-most defeats in NFL history.
Final score: Dolphins 14, Rams 10 (Dolphins cover)
