WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With turbulence in Iraq pushing down President Bush's approval ratings to their lowest level ever, worried Republicans are taking consolation that the presidential election is 5 1/2 months away.
Given the Iraqi prison abuse scandal, the killing of a top Iraqi political leader and rising American casualties in Iraq, no one at the White House or at Bush re-election campaign team is surprised that Bush's job approval rating has dropped into the mid-40s, the lowest since he took office in January 2001.
"I'm glad the election is not being held today. But you know what? It's not being held today," said Republican pollster Whit Ayres. "The fact that things don't look particularly bright today tells you virtually nothing about how things will be on Nov. 2."
Republicans said the key to Bush's rebounding is to bring a sense of stability in Iraq. The Bush administration is hoping that process will be aided by the scheduled June 30 transfer of sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government.
"They need to have a successful handoff of the government and show the American people that there's an end game," said Republican strategist Scott Reed.
William Kristol, editor of the conservative "Weekly Standard" magazine, told Fox News Sunday it appears people have doubts about Bush they did not have a few months ago because "they're not confident we have a credible strategy for winning in Iraq."
"If they believe we can win in Iraq, I think they'll re-elect Bush. If they think we just have to get out of there, well, why not make the change to (Democrat John) Kerry? 'Bush is the guy who got us in the mess,"' he said.
A Newsweek poll of registered voters said Kerry was favored by 43 percent, while Bush took 42 percent and independent candidate Ralph Nader polled at 5 percent. A CNN/Time poll of likely voters showed Kerry with 49 percent, Bush with 44 percent and Nader with 6 percent.
The polls could signal trouble for Bush, because recent history shows incumbents running for re-election with numbers in the mid-40s at this point have been defeated.
POLLS DOWN WHILE ECONOMY IS UP
Ironically it comes at a time when the U.S. economy, which has been a weak spot for Bush, is strengthening and adding hundreds of thousands of new jobs.
Bush advisers point out they always thought the election would be close.
"Here's how I see it: It doesn't matter what the number is in May," said a senior adviser for the Bush-Cheney campaign, Matthew Dowd. "The number that really matters is what your approval rating is in October."
The drop in support for Bush followed two weeks of bad news out of Iraq led by images of Iraqi prisoner abuse. Bush has vowed punishment for those responsible and apologized to the Iraqi people.
White House officials from Bush on down resist the temptation to get out of Iraq sooner rather than later. Bush has vowed not to "cut and run" and leave in the lurch Iraqis seeking a better future.
Republican consultant Charles Black said Bush's drop in the polls could be temporary if he handles the response to the abuse scandal properly.
"At some point, not right away necessarily, he needs to be able to make a report as to who did what and how far up the chain of command it went and say we've completed the investigation," Black said.
A frequent Republican theme was that Kerry has not been able to cash in on Bush's drop in support. Kerry's camp dismissed that.
"The Bush team should spend less time spinning the polls, and more time trying to fix the problems they've failed to address. Under this president, health care costs have jumped 50 percent, gas prices have hit $2 per gallon and more American jobs are being shipped overseas than ever," said a Kerry campaign spokesman, Chad Clanton.
Dowd said the country remained so divided that each side will likely enter the final phase of the campaign with 45 or 46 percent support.
"We're not in that place where the voters have decided to keep or leave the incumbent," he said.
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Given the Iraqi prison abuse scandal, the killing of a top Iraqi political leader and rising American casualties in Iraq, no one at the White House or at Bush re-election campaign team is surprised that Bush's job approval rating has dropped into the mid-40s, the lowest since he took office in January 2001.
"I'm glad the election is not being held today. But you know what? It's not being held today," said Republican pollster Whit Ayres. "The fact that things don't look particularly bright today tells you virtually nothing about how things will be on Nov. 2."
Republicans said the key to Bush's rebounding is to bring a sense of stability in Iraq. The Bush administration is hoping that process will be aided by the scheduled June 30 transfer of sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government.
"They need to have a successful handoff of the government and show the American people that there's an end game," said Republican strategist Scott Reed.
William Kristol, editor of the conservative "Weekly Standard" magazine, told Fox News Sunday it appears people have doubts about Bush they did not have a few months ago because "they're not confident we have a credible strategy for winning in Iraq."
"If they believe we can win in Iraq, I think they'll re-elect Bush. If they think we just have to get out of there, well, why not make the change to (Democrat John) Kerry? 'Bush is the guy who got us in the mess,"' he said.
A Newsweek poll of registered voters said Kerry was favored by 43 percent, while Bush took 42 percent and independent candidate Ralph Nader polled at 5 percent. A CNN/Time poll of likely voters showed Kerry with 49 percent, Bush with 44 percent and Nader with 6 percent.
The polls could signal trouble for Bush, because recent history shows incumbents running for re-election with numbers in the mid-40s at this point have been defeated.
POLLS DOWN WHILE ECONOMY IS UP
Ironically it comes at a time when the U.S. economy, which has been a weak spot for Bush, is strengthening and adding hundreds of thousands of new jobs.
Bush advisers point out they always thought the election would be close.
"Here's how I see it: It doesn't matter what the number is in May," said a senior adviser for the Bush-Cheney campaign, Matthew Dowd. "The number that really matters is what your approval rating is in October."
The drop in support for Bush followed two weeks of bad news out of Iraq led by images of Iraqi prisoner abuse. Bush has vowed punishment for those responsible and apologized to the Iraqi people.
White House officials from Bush on down resist the temptation to get out of Iraq sooner rather than later. Bush has vowed not to "cut and run" and leave in the lurch Iraqis seeking a better future.
Republican consultant Charles Black said Bush's drop in the polls could be temporary if he handles the response to the abuse scandal properly.
"At some point, not right away necessarily, he needs to be able to make a report as to who did what and how far up the chain of command it went and say we've completed the investigation," Black said.
A frequent Republican theme was that Kerry has not been able to cash in on Bush's drop in support. Kerry's camp dismissed that.
"The Bush team should spend less time spinning the polls, and more time trying to fix the problems they've failed to address. Under this president, health care costs have jumped 50 percent, gas prices have hit $2 per gallon and more American jobs are being shipped overseas than ever," said a Kerry campaign spokesman, Chad Clanton.
Dowd said the country remained so divided that each side will likely enter the final phase of the campaign with 45 or 46 percent support.
"We're not in that place where the voters have decided to keep or leave the incumbent," he said.
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