Wormy Pix Pick of the Week WC

[WormyPix]

After committing to TB as a GOY, I happened to see my writeup for last yr’s TB/NOR matchup where I said Todd Bowles & his coaching staff cannot be trusted to prep their team for key gms. I was telling my future self the results of Wk 18’s tilt & missed it. What’s even worse is the key factors I look for in a GOY nicely lined up for DEN hosting KC w/out half of their starters. Deep down I was hoping DEN would lose to give MIA a chance to make POs, & that cost me dearly. It was an abject capping failure on my part & I know quite a bit of people followed me. The only reason I post here is to help people beat the books, so to say my GOY was a shameful disappointment is a huge understatement. I have to be better. Even after over 20 yrs of handicapping the NFL, I’m still learning painful lessons. To put an exclamation pt on my awful end to the reg season, the NYG “O” could not keep up w/PHI’s JV team, my Teaser was killed by ATL giving up 44 to CAR in a must-win gm, & the big primetime gm was simply too much for Sam Darnold on SNF. A terrible end to an otherwise good season for me. I’ll try to regain momentum in POs & makeup for a bad capping job.

Final Regular Season POW 9-8-1, Teasers 15-5, GOY 1-1, Overall 50-42-5

2023 Playoff POW 3-1, Teasers 1-2, Overall 7-6, SB 1-0

DEN -8 ½ is making their 1st PO appearance since winning the SB w/Peyton Manning. I’m backing the rookie QB & Payton here because BUF tends to play up or down to their competition, esp in the WC rd (2-3 ATS). I remember MIA almost beating BUF w/Skylar freakin Thompson @ QB as a WC 2 yrs ago, where Allen almost played them to an early exit. DEN’s “D” obviously has the horses (pun intended) to force TOs on BUF, so if Nix can protect the ball himself, this should be a tight one. Weather amazingly shouldn’t be a factor w/clear skies & normal winds projected.

DEN 24
BUF 30
3 Units

GL to all & comments are most welcome.

 

[WormyPix]

Honorable Mentions:

1 Unit LAC -2 ½ (bought ½ @ -120): Tuff to back a PO rd fav, but HOU & Stroud just haven’t looked sharp all season. Harbaugh is the much more experienced coach here too, so I feel their “D” & run gm pace them to a rd win in a dome. RG Shaq Mason out for HOU too, so oline not quite @ its strongest.

1 Unit PIT +9 ½: Closing my nose on this one. Wilson can’t be trusted @ QB, but this is a familiar opponent playing for the 3rd time this season & PIT’s “D” has the talent & smarts to contain Lamar. King Henry will be the difference & lead BAL to the win, but this too should be a tight one. #1 WR Flowers also out here, so BAL will need to lean more on the King & the ground gm, which should limit their scoring.

1 Unit WAS +3: Feel Daniel & this WAS “D” will get revenge for their season opening loss to TB. Obviously both are very different from 18 wks ago w/WAS’s “D” gaining strides each wk & are healthier, while the future ROY has led multiple comeback wins for this team. Mayfield & the “O” are no joke, so WAS will need to score to win this, which is not farfetched because TB is one of the worst against the pass.

3 Unit Wormy Teaser

LAC +10
GB +18
WAS +16
MIN +10 ½

 

[DaKaty]

Denver - 8.5 ???

 

[Gravy]

Wormy, BOL on your picks this weekend !

 

[doogieboy]

Denver - 8.5 ???

C’mon man. You know what he meant…if you been following him at all. He’s not a joker just throwing out plays. Obvious typo.
GL to you
!

 

[indiana]

W. Pix....you've been solid all your and I thank you....
appreciate all your time and info .....solid picks...
BOL with this week's action...
on Den. with you....probably add LAC and Pitt. as well.....
have a great weekend of winners.....indy

 

[xflrejects]

Wormy,

Long time reader. Respect you and enjoy your write-ups big time.

I would like to point something out re: your DEN-BUF write-up and no, it's not the integer in front of the 8 1/2 (DEN) being the wrong one (lol).

In that game where BUF had an early 17 point lead and almost blew it vs. MIA, BUF had a certain OC by the name of Tommy Dorsey who constantly called huge bombs where Josh Allen was more than happy to accommodate him. This would see many wide open players in the flats or down the seam for probable gains of 5-20 yards (not incl. YAC) ignored while Josh missed his target, threw an ugly pick or possibly hit his man at a low percentage clip. Go back and check his TD-INT ratio (a metric I put a lot of stock in) and you will see it was nowhere near the "Surgeon" (Aaron Rodgers circa 2011-2021) like numbers he is putting up this year as he has cleaned up his game tremendously and flourishing with Joe Brady calling the plays.

In fact, I still recall that Skylar Thompson posted 18-45 220 YD. 1 TD 2 INT #'s that day as a 3rd string QB and they almost stole that game in the Bee-Lo! It was an abysmal performance and I am positive the game that sealed Dorsey's fate.

Bo Nix has proven to be a mature first year pro QB but he will come into a very hostile environment tomorrow possibly feeling himself after posting an almost perfect game against KC's 3rd string scrubs. Even with HC Payton in his ear keeping him even keel. Almost all the good ones have paid the piper their very first road game in the playoffs. Josh Allen himself, Jalen Hurts, C.J. Stroud to name a few. I feel Denver will match up with BUF similar to the 41-14 beatdown they took at the hands of the Ravens this year during the Bronco later-in-the-season "hot" run.

BUF 27 DEN 10 ( ALTERNATE SCORE 31-14)

 

[jaxfactor]

Good luck this weekend buddy! Teaser looks like it’s $$. Agree with LAC in a low scoring game. Hard to go against BUF in this spot though- saw a crazy trend about rookie QB facing playoff experienced QB…Pitt should keep it close.

 

[WormyPix]

Denver - 8.5 ???

C’mon man. You know what he meant…if you been following him at all. He’s not a joker just throwing out plays. Obvious typo.
GL to you
!

Oops, I use my writeups from last season as a template on Word so apparently whoever I took in WC rd last yr was a fav! Lol, it's okay, we gotta keep each other honest here. Thanks for the correction DK, and for the "D" Doogie!

 

[WormyPix]

Wormy, BOL on your picks this weekend !

Thanks Train! We'll connect soon, I promise!

W. Pix....you've been solid all your and I thank you....
appreciate all your time and info .....solid picks...
BOL with this week's action...
on Den. with you....probably add LAC and Pitt. as well.....
have a great weekend of winners.....indy

Big Mahalo Indy. You're my rock I need to lean on when times get tuff here. Here's to a winning weekend for the both of us.

 

[WormyPix]

Wormy,

Long time reader. Respect you and enjoy your write-ups big time.

I would like to point something out re: your DEN-BUF write-up and no, it's not the integer in front of the 8 1/2 (DEN) being the wrong one (lol).

In that game where BUF had an early 17 point lead and almost blew it vs. MIA, BUF had a certain OC by the name of Tommy Dorsey who constantly called huge bombs where Josh Allen was more than happy to accommodate him. This would see many wide open players in the flats or down the seam for probable gains of 5-20 yards (not incl. YAC) ignored while Josh missed his target, threw an ugly pick or possibly hit his man at a low percentage clip. Go back and check his TD-INT ratio (a metric I put a lot of stock in) and you will see it was nowhere near the "Surgeon" (Aaron Rodgers circa 2011-2021) like numbers he is putting up this year as he has cleaned up his game tremendously and flourishing with Joe Brady calling the plays.

In fact, I still recall that Skylar Thompson posted 18-45 220 YD. 1 TD 2 INT #'s that day as a 3rd string QB and they almost stole that game in the Bee-Lo! It was an abysmal performance and I am positive the game that sealed Dorsey's fate.

Bo Nix has proven to be a mature first year pro QB but he will come into a very hostile environment tomorrow possibly feeling himself after posting an almost perfect game against KC's 3rd string scrubs. Even with HC Payton in his ear keeping him even keel. Almost all the good ones have paid the piper their very first road game in the playoffs. Josh Allen himself, Jalen Hurts, C.J. Stroud to name a few. I feel Denver will match up with BUF similar to the 41-14 beatdown they took at the hands of the Ravens this year during the Bronco later-in-the-season "hot" run.

BUF 27 DEN 10 ( ALTERNATE SCORE 31-14)

Love it XFL! Great insight & I agree w/you on all pts. Interesting on the Ken Dorsey angle as I do not follow BUF as closely as you do apparently. I'm more concerned w/Allen's TOs during POs, which seem to come @ the worst moments or position on field. 4 INTs & 9 fumbles (2 lost) in 10 PO gms is quite a bit for a star QB that's been carrying his team. You are rt about rookie QBs on the PO rd. So I'm expecting DEN's "D" to keep this close & Nix, who can be a gunslinger, to connect w/Sutton & Mims on several big plays. As you know, this gm is a lot of luck & it's only a 3-Unit gm for me, so mostly a gut feel that has been good to me more often than not. Don't you feel that DEN seems to be a much more balanced team than BUF, who rely on Allen a little too much to win gms? And bad weather?

 

[WormyPix]

Good luck this weekend buddy! Teaser looks like it’s $$. Agree with LAC in a low scoring game. Hard to go against BUF in this spot though- saw a crazy trend about rookie QB facing playoff experienced QB…Pitt should keep it close.

Ugh, like XFL mentioned, you guys are starting to make me doubt DEN! But I feel DEN is the more balanced team w/an experienced HC. Nix will absolutely have to protect the ball, but like Daniels, I feel he's a true gamer that could overcome the big spotlight in what will be the biggest gm for him so far. We'll see! BOL Jax, it's been a crazy ride this season.

 

[WormyPix]

Adding:

1 Unit LAC/HOU Under 41 ½: Simple here as you have 2 of the best scoring “D”s in the league & 2 “O”s that aren’t high octane. HOU has gone Under in 11 gms this season, 7x @ hm.

 

[cashflow50]

gl on the plays WP my friend. And thank you for the advice!!

 

[xflrejects]

Wormy...I am LMAO at the fact that I wrote Tommy Dorsey instead of Ken. No, I am not that old but I am up there.

Getting back to DEN-BUF, this may well be the best BUF team they have fielded since Josh's arrival. That is to address your point about balance but to the home team. Josh is distributing the ball much better since they got rid of The Diva. Add the best dual running threat they have had in over a decade and change. I do really like what is going on over there in DEN and the fact that Bo got hooked up with an excellent QB whisperer unlike someone who started with the Jets but is now in the NFC. However, I think he will be the one rookie road QB who goes up against the pine this Wildcard weekend.

If it is any consolation I see TCG is using Broncos ML with Ravens ML in a parlay this weekend.

 

[WormyPix]

Wormy...I am LMAO at the fact that I wrote Tommy Dorsey instead of Ken. No, I am not that old but I am up there.

Getting back to DEN-BUF, this may well be the best BUF team they have fielded since Josh's arrival. That is to address your point about balance but to the home team. Josh is distributing the ball much better since they got rid of The Diva. Add the best dual running threat they have had in over a decade and change. I do really like what is going on over there in DEN and the fact that Bo got hooked up with an excellent QB whisperer unlike someone who started with the Jets but is now in the NFC. However, I think he will be the one rookie road QB who goes up against the pine this Wildcard weekend.

If it is any consolation I see TCG is using Broncos ML with Ravens ML in a parlay this weekend.

Man, I had to Google Tommy Dorsey, my goodness how did you default to him?? LOL. I've got that disease where I auto-correct people's writing when I'm reading & obvious mistakes are made, so I didn't even notice. Ok my friend, we will see which BUF & DEN teams show up tomorrow! GL.