Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (9)

Search

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2006
Messages
3,993
Tokens
The Wormy trend continues this season. Followed GOY disaster w/a perfect 6-0 wk. Got very lucky w/DAL & OAK which both won in OT on fluky TDs. But NE handled BUF easily, NOR could’ve given up the gm vs SEA but pulled it out in the end, & MNF was ugly as predicted. Hate to say it, but this is the wk to fade me.

Wasn’t able to post, but I really liked ATL on TNF due to TB coming in wounded off OT gm & won 1 unit on them. I’ll be tracking that as undocumented.

POW 4-3-1, Teasers 6-2, Overall 23-12-2 (24-12-2 undocumented), GOY 0-1.

MIA (-4) is coming off a bye & as hot as this longtime, suffering Phin fan can remember. In fact, MIA was 2-0 last yr following Philbin’s firing, blowing out HOU & TEN. Then they came back down to earth finishing the yr w/7 losses. That was expected however, w/interim coach Dan Campbell getting the most out of his players but being easily out-coached by more seasoned teams. I think Adam Gase breaks that mold. He’s shown he can adapt as the season rolls along & has made many changes already this yr. He’s an unproven commodity off a bye, but a resurgent run gm gives him a lot of options. CLE made a mistake by trying to take advantage of the NYJ’s dead last pass “D” in the NFL & going away from their strong run gm. They had some success early, but could not be sustained once NY began their comeback. I feel Gase learns from that & sticks w/Ajayi on the ground against NYJ’s #1 run “D”, but peppers deep shots throughout the gm. 1 stat encouraging that is Ajayi avg 8.6 ypc w/8 men in the box! A lot of experts are going w/NY here based on their dominance against MIA. Trust me, I know all about that trend because how often have I said there’s no way MIA can lose to this Jets team. Crossing my fingers, I think this time will be different & it’s all because of the men in the trenches. It’s no coincidence that Ajayi’s explosion occurred @ the same time that MIA’s starting oline playing together for the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time all season. 1[SUP]st[/SUP] rd pick Tunsil has been a beast @ LG & Pouncey has been consistent @ center. Even on the other side of the ball, MIA’s dline has improved the last 2 gms holding some pretty potent run gms (McCoy & LeVeon Bell) in check. I expect the same vs Forte & co here. If MIA can contain the run, that’ll just leave good ol’ Fitzy to get blasted by Cam Wake, which should lead to TOs he’s famous for. NY is now in its 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] rd gm in a row (0-2 in that situation this yr by 23 ppg) & is worst in the league in TO differential (-9). Homer alert.

NYJ 16
MIA 24
4 Units

GL to all & comments are most welcome.
 

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2006
Messages
3,993
Tokens
Honorable Mentions:

2 Units DEN +1: Almost POW but I hate playing primetime gms. Can’t ignore this one tho, OAK’s oline is banged up, are 0-7 ATS @ hm, DEN is 5-0 ATS @ OAK, & Carr’s sack rate goes up twice as much vs DEN. OAK’s vaunted “O” has gotten a lot of media attention, but keep in mind that they’ve come against “D”s that gave up similar numbers to the rest of the league. I’m not certain OAK’s inconsistent “D” can sufficiently stop Siemian & co as much as DEN’s “D” can against OAK’s “O”. Star corner Talib sits out again, but his replacement Roby last wk vs SD earned AFC “D” player of the week! Nice to have the talent DEN has in the secondary. Oh yeah, they have Von Miller & a fully healthy DeMarcus Ware too.

1 Unit MIN -6 ½: Boy did MIN’s oline burn me 2 wks ago. They followed that up w/a shocking blowout @ CHI on MNF. They now have more injuries to their sad oline & lost their veteran OC Norv Turner. All seems lost for the once hot Vikings. It’s a perfect wounded animal in a corner. MIN fell victim to the B2B rd gm (this yr those teams are 11-17-1 ATS), & now DET is in that same situation. I feel MIN’s “D” comes in extra hungry & Shurmur caters “O” to overcome poor oline play. McKinnon is back which should help MIN’s run gm.

2 Unit Wormy Teaser:

KC +5 ½
DAL +5 ½
NOR +8 ½
DEN +14
 

New member
Joined
Sep 20, 2016
Messages
155
Tokens
With you on the Vikings dude.

With the broncos I disagree. I have watched a ton of AFC west football this year and the thing that has stood out the most to me is how much winning can change a culture and a teams direction. The Raiders have a great run game to go with their elite passing attack. Raiders are deep, and interchangeable on the OL, and the teams confidence is booming. Denver has a great defense against the pass, but they can be had in the run game. Roby is a great backup but let's be honest Crabtree and Cooper are wayyyyyy better than anything Roby covered vs San Diego. This is a new Raiders team and I think too many people keep slighting them and brushing off their success. Del Rio has been all over the team about the success at home, and with the Raiders on a bye week after this game, I think the Raiders are in a great spot here to beat Denver. Hell the raiders beat them last year in a game they very much needed. This Raiders team is much better while this Denver team is the same or slightly less consistent. It wouldn't shock me if Denver won as they are the defending champs for a reason, but my feeling after seeing both teams 5-6 times this year I like Oakland and the over. Raiders 27-22

good luck though brother the afc west is crazy lol
 

your worst nightmare
Joined
Dec 22, 2008
Messages
19,026
Tokens
MIA (-4) is coming off a bye & as hot as this longtime, suffering Phin fan can remember. In fact, MIA was 2-0 last yr following Philbin’s firing, blowing out HOU & TEN. Then they came back down to earth finishing the yr w/7 losses. That was expected however, w/interim coach Dan Campbell getting the most out of his players but being easily out-coached by more seasoned teams. I think Adam Gase breaks that mold. He’s shown he can adapt as the season rolls along & has made many changes already this yr. He’s an unproven commodity off a bye, but a resurgent run gm gives him a lot of options. CLE made a mistake by trying to take advantage of the NYJ’s dead last pass “D” in the NFL & going away from their strong run gm. They had some success early, but could not be sustained once NY began their comeback. I feel Gase learns from that & sticks w/Ajayi on the ground against NYJ’s #1 run “D”, but peppers deep shots throughout the gm. 1 stat encouraging that is Ajayi avg 8.6 ypc w/8 men in the box! A lot of experts are going w/NY here based on their dominance against MIA. Trust me, I know all about that trend because how often have I said there’s no way MIA can lose to this Jets team. Crossing my fingers, I think this time will be different & it’s all because of the men in the trenches. It’s no coincidence that Ajayi’s explosion occurred @ the same time that MIA’s starting oline playing together for the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time all season. 1[SUP]st[/SUP] rd pick Tunsil has been a beast @ LG & Pouncey has been consistent @ center. Even on the other side of the ball, MIA’s dline has improved the last 2 gms holding some pretty potent run gms (McCoy & LeVeon Bell) in check. I expect the same vs Forte & co here. If MIA can contain the run, that’ll just leave good ol’ Fitzy to get blasted by Cam Wake, which should lead to TOs he’s famous for. NY is now in its 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] rd gm in a row (0-2 in that situation this yr by 23 ppg) & is worst in the league in TO differential (-9). Homer alert.

NYJ 16
MIA 24
4 Units

I'm originally from Miami, so I can empathize with any long suffering Fin fan.

I highlighted in blue what I believe will propel the Dolphins to win and cover against the NYJ today. Your
analysis is spot on, and today we see Ajayi get at least 150 yards.

The person I feel sorry for is DENNIS HICKEY. Ajayi was HIS pick, as were many of these Dolphins players.
He was thrown under the bus by Tannenbaum. I think that guy is a snake.

Best of luck! Go Fins!
shaking-hands-in-agreement-smiley-emoticon.gif
 

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2006
Messages
3,993
Tokens
With you on the Vikings dude.

With the broncos I disagree. I have watched a ton of AFC west football this year and the thing that has stood out the most to me is how much winning can change a culture and a teams direction. The Raiders have a great run game to go with their elite passing attack. Raiders are deep, and interchangeable on the OL, and the teams confidence is booming. Denver has a great defense against the pass, but they can be had in the run game. Roby is a great backup but let's be honest Crabtree and Cooper are wayyyyyy better than anything Roby covered vs San Diego. This is a new Raiders team and I think too many people keep slighting them and brushing off their success. Del Rio has been all over the team about the success at home, and with the Raiders on a bye week after this game, I think the Raiders are in a great spot here to beat Denver. Hell the raiders beat them last year in a game they very much needed. This Raiders team is much better while this Denver team is the same or slightly less consistent. It wouldn't shock me if Denver won as they are the defending champs for a reason, but my feeling after seeing both teams 5-6 times this year I like Oakland and the over. Raiders 27-22

good luck though brother the afc west is crazy lol
Great insight Zodiac! Stop by more often.

I would say OAK is actually getting their respect this yr. Most talking heads are trumpeting the Raiders arrival this season & even have Carr in the MVP conversation. Both public & expert action were leaning OAK today. I think DEN has more to prove in this gm than OAK actually. And if this is the case, imagine that talented "D" playing like this is a SB gm. I am concerned about DEN's "O". Highly inconsistent like you said, but some of that inconsistency is due to Siemian's injury a few wks back. Paxton Lynch fell on his face vs ATL & Siemian's 1st gm back was a bad loss to SD. But they avenged that loss & now have a chance to go up 1 gm in the div. I'll go w/the more experienced "D" & championship mentality.
 

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2006
Messages
3,993
Tokens

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2006
Messages
3,993
Tokens
I'm originally from Miami, so I can empathize with any long suffering Fin fan.

I highlighted in blue what I believe will propel the Dolphins to win and cover against the NYJ today. Your
analysis is spot on, and today we see Ajayi get at least 150 yards.

The person I feel sorry for is DENNIS HICKEY. Ajayi was HIS pick, as were many of these Dolphins players.
He was thrown under the bus by Tannenbaum. I think that guy is a snake.

Best of luck! Go Fins!
shaking-hands-in-agreement-smiley-emoticon.gif
Awesome stuff Incubus. I dislike Tannebaum too. He wasn't very good in NY either so I was disappointed when he was hired.

GO PHINS!
 

New member
Joined
Sep 20, 2016
Messages
155
Tokens
Great insight Zodiac! Stop by more often.

I would say OAK is actually getting their respect this yr. Most talking heads are trumpeting the Raiders arrival this season & even have Carr in the MVP conversation. Both public & expert action were leaning OAK today. I think DEN has more to prove in this gm than OAK actually. And if this is the case, imagine that talented "D" playing like this is a SB gm. I am concerned about DEN's "O". Highly inconsistent like you said, but some of that inconsistency is due to Siemian's injury a few wks back. Paxton Lynch fell on his face vs ATL & Siemian's 1st gm back was a bad loss to SD. But they avenged that loss & now have a chance to go up 1 gm in the div. I'll go w/the more experienced "D" & championship mentality.


Thanks wormy. I always love talking handicapping on here.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,917
Messages
13,575,208
Members
100,883
Latest member
iniesta2025
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com