Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (7)

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Well, guess what, yet another 4th Q decision for my POW, but this time MIA let one slip @ HOU, allowing HOU to convert multiple 4th downs in the final min including the game winning Schaub QB draw TD. Damn, that gm hurt to watch. However, it was a win against the spread.

POW is now 4-2, am 6-6 overall, 1-1 Mondays, 0-1 DOW.

This is the earliest I've ever posted my POW, but the line I feel will continue to rise come gameday, so I'll post now. I love following great "D"s, and I believe TEN has the best currently. Anchored by DT Haynesworth, TEN has dominated the line of scrimmage. And, even their oline has done exceptional, as evidenced by their great run gm vs tuff run "D"s, and tied with DEN for least sacks allowed (2). This goes perfectly with KC's "D" which is dead last in rypg (182) & sacks on opposing QB's (3). Another reason to dislike KC is the return of Brodie Croyle. With a career 56 QB Rating, Croyle is not the choice at QB for this edition KC team. Huard has done horribly too, except vs DEN (100 rating), but he is a veteran the team respects, and has performed well considering 7 sacks and a crapload of hurries in limited duty. But, Herm believes Croyle will lead him to the super bowl someday, so he gets the start as long as he's healthy. What will only hurt him is TEN will stuff the run, and LJ will get nothing on the ground putting more pressure on Croyle. And on obvious passing downs, look out, TEN has 15 sacks and 10 INT's. KC is 30th in pass "O", and have gone through 3 QB's thus far, now going back to their "starter." KC starts 5 rookies, has no consistency on "O", and has a questionable head coach. The only reasons I am not making this my GOY is the line is too high for a road gm, KC is coming off a bye also, and the public seems to be on TEN.

TEN 34
KC 10

I'll give my DOW and honorable mentions friday or sat. GL all, and comments are always welcome.

:toast:
 

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Sweet. The match up of KC's inability to get pressure on the QB and TEN's great protection of the QB was one of the biggest things that stood out to me when looking at the elements that make up my line. Yup, once KC falls behind you can turn off the lights, because Croyle and the KC offense is going to wilt like a hothouse flower.
 

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Hothouse flower. Brilliant.

Crunch, I hope this ends the 4th Q magic for my POW. This looks like a solid candidate. With all the DD inflated lines the NFL is producing, this looked like the worst matchup out there, yet there's bigger spreads sunday. Glad to have 8 here.
 

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I too liked this play when it came out, but thinking about it, I may stay away. Tenn is 5-0 ATS this season and the books know the public will be all over them as they have been a covering machine. You said it yourself, you would think the line would be DD, yet it's not. Why? Is is because the books want to give everyone a free win? Is it because the books just blew this line? On a 5-0 ATS team, I think not. Be careful with this one. I look for a Tenn win by 5-7. BOL!!
 

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I don't know Broncos, I think the line is like that because KC is at home, which is still a significant HF advantage, and the memories of the DEN upset. Plus, TEN had a close one @ BAL. That's one gm I compare this one with, and KC has a far worse "O" & "D". With LJ out for this gm, it makes it even scarier. Surprisingly the line has only jumped to 8 1/2. I think the line is what it is, and public is avoiding this gm for the same reason you are. But besides Croyle having the gm of his life, and the refs "interfering", this one shouldn't be close from open to close.

Thanks for the comments, and BOL to you as well!
 

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Here are my honorable mentions:

HOU -9 1/2
MIA -3
TB -10 1/2
IND -1

It's quite obvious DET is a mess right now. They've given up on the season, and plan to rebuild for next yr. More than likely Marinelli will be fired, and Orlovsky is the starter. HOU is balanced enough on both "O" & "D" to take advantage @ home to win this by 10. I am going to continue to ride the MIA wagon, even vs the much improved BAL "D". They impressed me vs TEN, so I believe this one will be low scoring. But BAL on the road is not as strong, while MIA @ home is, esp on "D". Give this one to the Phins. Love the sunday nighter, as SEA away is money. The line is fricken huge, but TB has the manpower to force Seneca into mistakes (hasn't started a gm in 2 yrs) and stuff Julius. On "O" Garcia did terrific vs CAR (117 QB rating, no TO's), and Earnest Graham actually played FB for Dunn (115 ryds). This team is humming, and is in my top 5 NFL teams. Gruden also has intimate knowledge of his old boss, so I think this'll help with gameplanning on TB's side. IND absolutely lit up BAL's vaunted "D" last wk, a sign that all the rust is off (Peyton/Marvin/Saturday). Although their "D" also looked dominant, I expect GB to score up as well, as IND does not have the talent to stop GB's uber-talented WR's. But Peyton is a winner, and it's not that cold yet on the tundra. IND to win a shoot out.

My Dog of the Week is also my monday nighter. Love DEN to "upset" NE at home. As I've always written, NE is mightier on the road, and with Cassel their home field is even weaker. Shanny has beaten Belly 5 straight times, and Cutler should have success vs NE's weak secondary & pass rush. DEN's "D" does enough to allow them to win this one SU.

DEN 34
NE 27
 

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I don't know Broncos, I think the line is like that because KC is at home, which is still a significant HF advantage, and the memories of the DEN upset. Plus, TEN had a close one @ BAL. That's one gm I compare this one with, and KC has a far worse "O" & "D". With LJ out for this gm, it makes it even scarier. Surprisingly the line has only jumped to 8 1/2. I think the line is what it is, and public is avoiding this gm for the same reason you are. But besides Croyle having the gm of his life, and the refs "interfering", this one shouldn't be close from open to close.

Thanks for the comments, and BOL to you as well!

I believe you can take the win over Denver out the equation here. Titans defense will not allow KC much if any positive yardage. No LJ so running game will be a non-factor and thirdly, Croyle coming back after injury layoff and will turn the ball over a few times for Titan scores.
Titans are for real and everyone and their brother are looking for an excuse to blow up their ATS record. Not here though......

Good Luck Sunday
 

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Thanks w8! You've echoed many of my thoughts from my writeup, and I'm glad you agree. BOL to you as well.

Winds are supposed to be up to 24 mph @ GB. This sucks, so I may not play IND. If both passing gms go flat, I have more faith in GB running gm, but we'll see. I'll keep IND a pick for my own tracking purposes.
 

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Finally a runaway winner, and yes unknown, finally a correct score prediction. Thanks for the congrats.

KC's run "D" is as bad as advertised, but Croyle actually did better than I thought. However, if he was given the whole gm, his stats probably would've went south. Not having LJ definitely hurt too, but not much. This TEN team impressed me with their focus and drive despite going against an inferior team on the road. They could've easily taken them for granted, but on all phases of the gm TEN performed as if they were facing a marquee team. My hats off to them, they're still the best team in the NFL, by far.

As for MIA, pretty much the whole gm came down to that Pennington pick-6. If he had lobbed it over Suggs' head, it would've been a huge gain and a 1st down. Instead he tries to bullet it, like he's Marino. MIA's "D" needs to make more plays too. They had multiple opportunities to grab fumbles, and INT's, but didn't come up with them. If they can convert those TO's, they'll be really hard to stop.
 

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It's strange to say I was on the right side with DEN, but end up losing by 31 pts ATS!! Those fumbles were ridiculous, and Cutler got hurt, which he never recovered fully from. W/out those fumbles, the score would've been at least 7-6 NE, and 14-7 DEN at best. And the whole gm would've been changed. Sigh. Lick the wounds, and try again next wk.

I'm getting rid of my DOW's, unless it really stands out. Pathetic there.
 

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