Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (16)

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Wow. Capped gm perfectly, but for opposite teams. Where LA had been running really well to set up the pass, & DAL was underutilizing Zeke, the 2 teams did the exact opposite. Chalk that up to McVay overthinking & Garrett finally waking up after 2 gms. To top off yet another amazing wk for the Worm, TEN looked pathetic against HOU to lose the South & Drew Lock showed he can’t play in the cold despite playing in DEN & did have injuries along the oline. LA also blew my Teaser to wrap up the perfect wk. My pix are now official fades.

Regular Season POW 5-9, Teasers 8-6, GOY 1-0, Overall 30-38 (30-40 Undocumented)

ARI +8 is off an impressive offensive showing against the disappointing Brownies @ hm. They now travel to SEA where it’s very difficult for rookie QBs to succeed. However, SEA is nursing a lot of injuries on “D”. Griffin & Kendricks are GTDs & Diggs & Clowney are doubtful. Ever since Quandre Diggs came over via trade w/DET, SEA’s secondary has vastly improved. Clowney has been key for pressure on the QB all yr. In fact, in their 1[SUP]st[/SUP] tilt back in Sept, he had a critical pick-6 on Murray on a bad screen pass. Also in that 1, ARI’s much maligned “D” actually played well esp against Wilson, who scored only 1 TD. I expect much more scoring here, however ARI should be able to keep up w/Drake leading a balanced attack on the ground. My only hope is Murray keeps the TOs down. Even if ARI gets buried early, these 2 teams are a dichotomy in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] Q as SEA loves to give away leads there while ARI has been $ late. Not as important, but worth noting are the trends that favor ARI in this matchup w/ARI being 4-0 ATS @ SEA, rd team 8-1-1 ATS & dog 7-1-1 ATS. So although this current ARI team weren’t involved in most of those gms, SEA’s unit has. It appears that SEA has historically played up or down against the Cards. This line opened at 10, so there’s significant sharp action on ARI while the public seems to be favoring SEA.

ARI 27
SEA 33
4 Units

GL to all & comments are most welcome.
 

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Honorable Mentions:

1 Unit PHI +2: Hunch here as Garrett actually looked like a competent coach last wk, but hoping for a retread @ PHI. PHI in recent wks has committed to the run gm a little more which has resulted in Wentz having more time in the pocket. This should be a tight gm either way, so taking the hm dog.

1 Unit PIT/NYJ Under 37: Very simple here. Duck Hodges vs Sam Darnold w/2 very good “D”s in cold weather. PIT returns Smith-Schuster, but NY also likely returns pro-bowler Jamal Adams & CB Brian Poole. The only scary part is there could be several “D” TDs. Here’s to good tackling by the “O”.

1 Unit CIN/MIA Under 45 ½: This is a weather play for the most part as thunderstorms are expected in MIA. And although both teams sport the worst “D”s in the land, they also sport the worst “O”s. I’m sure players on both sides will continue to play hard for pride & roster spots, however the organizations are eyeing Joe Borrow or Chase Young in next yr’s draft.

1 Unit ARI/SEA Over 51: As you read above, this should clearly be a high scoring affair. I can easily see 1 team taking a big lead & the other formulating a late gm comeback, driving the score up as the gm goes on. Perhaps even an OT gm here?

2 Unit Wormy Teaser

NOR +10 ½
MIA +14
DAL +11
ARI/SEA Over 38

UNDOCUMENTED
1 Unit BUF/NE Under 39 ½: Couldn’t put the rest of my writeups in time for this gm. 2 of the top “D”s squaring off in a key AFC East gm. Brady & the NE “O” hasn’t looked good all season against competent “D”s while Josh Allen just isn’t doing it late in yr. Both teams should run the ball a lot as that’s the key to keeping this 1 close. This was looking good early until BUF got lucky w/the last second TD to end the ½ & some quick scores to start the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP].
 

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your ariz pick will be gold if rams win su...that line might go to 6' should rams win
 

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W/Pix.......BOL with all your action this week buddy......I will be following Phil. and Ariz. play...

this is your solid and profitable week buddy......indy
 

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Wormy, BOL on your picks today my friend and I want to wish you a Merry Christmas !
 

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your ariz pick will be gold if rams win su...that line might go to 6' should rams win
Great pt, & no such luck. Almost pulled it off tho. Funny enough, LA did what I expected them to do last wk vs DAL. Very depressing.

W/Pix.......BOL with all your action this week buddy......I will be following Phil. and Ariz. play...

this is your solid and profitable week buddy......indy
Thanks Indy. You're so consistent w/your support. I want to win more for you than myself! Smart bettors like ourselves don't overplay, so we can survive bad stretches, so I'm ultimately not worried about you. BOL to us both this wk! And Merry Christmas.

Wormy, BOL on your picks today my friend and I want to wish you a Merry Christmas !
Merry Christmas Gravy Train!! I was so depressed from my losing season, I forgot to wish everyone a Merry Christmas @ the end of my post.
Happy Holidays to you & yours, Gravy. I'll be cheering for the Packers on Monday!
 

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