Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (15)

[WormyPix]

Sigh. NYJ absolutely lay an egg on the long west road on my watch. This team isn't going ANYWHERE in the playoffs, if they make it. If they don't have the fortitude to win a critical gm vs an inferior opponent, then how can they expect to beat TEN, IND, PIT, BAL, etc in a playoff atmosphere?

POW now stands at 9-4-1.

This wk is a tough slate IMO. But one gm stood out with what should be the most physically intense gm of the entire season. So, in a big time, division rivalry with playoffs at stake, go with the home team. Esp when the home team has won the last 5 @ home in the series. Earlier in the yr, PIT barely beat BAL by a fumble return TD @ PIT, when Flacco was still gelling with his team and learning the NFL ropes. Now he sports an 81 QB rating and only has 3 INT's in his last 8 gms. And the BAL "O" has averaged 30 ppg in those 8. Obviously, they were't against "D"s close to PIT's, but the pt is BAL can score, unlike PIT (25th in "O"). But, this one will be an all-out slugfest, so I'm not expecting much scoring from either side. I love the Under in this one, but chose BAL as POW since I don't like playing totals in general. PIT sports a slightly better "D", but BAL's home field evens that one out, and PIT's "O" is worse than BAL's. I say that's enough to cover 2 pts. BAL's team is highly motivated for this gm, esp their "D". Everyone knows about Terrell Suggs' comments for their last gm together. Even FB Lorenzo Neal is excited about playing the Steeler "D". I tell you, BAL is salivating over this gm, and you should too. With BAL attacking with a 3 back attack, and PIT countering with a 1 1/2 back strike, BAL will eventually wear them down, and pull out a tight one.

PIT 10
BAL 16

BOL all and comments are always welcome.

 

[WormyPix]

Here are my honorables:

PIT u34 When you get the #1 vs #2 "D"s and 19th vs 25th "O"s facing off outdoors on grass in a cold, windy stadium, what do you think?

SEA o42 Yup, this is how bad the sunday slate is, I'm playing 2 Totals! But, when you got a gm between 2 teams with no goals left, why not air it out? STL/SEA have bad "D"s, but their "O"s can score. So in a dome, where past gms in the series have been high scoring, I believe both teams get into the 20's with players trying to impress for the off season market.

HOU +3 TEN is only playing for home field, and even if they lose they can still clinch it. So all the motivation is on HOU's side, and it's heavy. Firstly, TEN beats HOU a lot, so they'll want some sort of redemption. Then, TEN is the beast of the AFC, so obviously HOU will want to beat them, esp at home. And TEN will want to save some mojo for playoffs.

 

[WormyPix]

Well, if you put 2 & 2 together, you get a 2 team teaser!

PIT u40
BAL +4

GL all!

 

[QuittingWork]

Love the POW. ....however I'm also on the over in that game, in addition to u 42 sea/stl.

I feel like roethlisberger will cough it up a few times, and obviously take some horrible sacks--which in turn will lead to short fields and possibly defensive pts.

Cash

$$$

 

[WormyPix]

Thanks QW, definitely GL to you!

You are correct about BigBen giving it up, but PIT's "D" is solid, so I think BAL will be coming away with a lot of FG's.

 

[billbeater]

hard to bet baltimore, they have to do scoring on defense..... and if you just dont make turnovers, balty cant win...
Have to lean with the Steelies again! They win and setup an easy week 17 off week to rest people....
Flaco-fuker will turn the ball over on Sunday...

GL Wormy! :toast:

 

[thecruncher]

Yeah - PIT/BAL is more than likely going to come down to one or two huge defensive plays, and that's nigh unto impossible to forecast as both of these defenses are nearly equal capable of forcing mistakes. Home field noise could be the difference here, though.

 

[xflrejects]

love the over in BAL-PIT

 

[uscmd]

Bal is changing. The old image of an offensively challanged team is no more. L8 weeks Bal #1 in scoring in the NFL. Line off, they are #1 by a 50% margin. Bal+120.....Ten+80........Atl+69.

I think Bal hits big Ben hard and often. Forces him into to's and wins this game decisively. Right now Bal is the bastard step child of the AFC north. Lastly, theres that little revenge thing we don't talk about as much. Pit beat Bal by 3 in Pit. Bal knows that losing 2 to a divisional opponent is rough.....while a win gets them a tie for the lead. (they'd be -1 in the tiebreaker)

This will certainly be a slobber knocking game to watch. imho best of the day followed by NYG/Dal and Atl/TB.

I'm leaning more towards Bal 21-10.....24-13.
bol

 

[thecruncher]

I like Flacco, but I wouldn't get too excited about the scoring they've put up recently, as much of it has come from their defense, not their offense. The Ravens had a big day passing the ball on the Bengals (including one trick play for a long TD thrown by a WR, I believe), and a pretty good day versus the Redskins last week. Running the ball they had a pretty good day versus the Giants playing from behind, but other than that have only had 2 games all season where they've rushed for more yards per carry than the opponent allows on average, in week #1 versus the Bengals and week #9 versus the Browns. I backed the Ravens as dogs in the earlier match up this season, but looking at the offensive numbers of all of their games this year I just don't see any reason to be optimistic that they can offensively outperform the Steelers in this game.

 

[YankeesRule]

Balt one of my strongest plays of the weekend

 

[JimmyVegas]

Pitt is 0-5 at M&T stadium.......covers.com only goes back to 03' so i am not sure when pitt has actually won at M&T stadium

 

[WormyPix]

jpr, I'm with you, as I stated, PIT is winless in their last 5 trips to BAL, even last yr when PIT was the talk of the town and BAL gave MIA their only win of the yr, and also when PIT won the SB.

Yankees, thanks a bunch, I think we got a winner here.

Cruncher, absolutely, I'm by no means saying Flacco & the "O" is ARI or DAL. Simply, they are better than the PIT "O" currently. Which should help them win this tough gm in front of the home crowd hopefully with home cooking from the zebras. It'll be a field position gm the whole way, with BAL getting the slight edge because I strongly believe PIT turns it over more than BAL here. And Crunch, I know your #'s don't lie, but I'm going with BAL's enthusiasm in this one. Throw #'s out the window, this one's going to be a prize match!

uscmd, we agree! I don't think either team will get into the 20's, unless there's S. Teams or "D" TD's. Field position battle all gm, with 2 coaches that really want to win this one.

xfl, not sure why anyone would want to touch the over, unless thinking contrarian?

Billbeater, I guess Flacco has burned you in the past! LOL! I'm hoping he's taking this gm very seriously, and taking care of the ball, because Harbaugh knows how important field position will be. So I think there'll be lots of runs, with Cam Cameron taking a shot downfield once in a blue moon. I think Ben is way more prone to turn it over the way he holds on to the ball, and tries to force passes thru defenders. Ed Reed will be on that!

Awesome posts gentlemen! I think this is the most replies I've ever had! I mean it when I say comments are welcome!!!

 

[WormyPix]

Adding ATL -3 (damn the juice is high!!) and this lukewarm Teaser:

WAS o33 1/2
ATL u57 1/2
SEA +10 1/2
SD +7 1/2

Please let it be a good sunday!!!

 

[billbeater]

good luck and becareful Wormy, these Steelies are not 99 cents anymore and are superbowl bound!

I like ATL -3, but cannot win an atlanta game to save my banshee... so bucs will win somehow....


either way, its only money!
Cheers to another Sunday! :toast::toast::toast:

 

[WormyPix]

Bill, I can always rely on you for late night posts. Are you an insomniac? LOL! Thanks, and BOL to the both of us. I hope at the least my teasers cover. But I think you will see BAL play well enough to win @ home tomorrow.

:toast:

 

[billbeater]

i find some of my best thoughts come deep into the night listening to moby... lol
personally i think the week kinda sucks, but i would put 1 kidney on pitt+3 and the other kidney on NYG+3... at worst a split...

late in the season too many teams have no reason to put on a jock strap in the nfl.... :drink:

 

[WormyPix]

You may be needing a donor after today! LOL! I played the Gmen too, but I'm not too confident in that one with DAL having all the motivation and Jacobs out. I'm facing D. Ward in my FF playoffs too, so I hope he gets shut down!

 

[WormyPix]

Jimminey Christmas, I almost cap the gm perfectly, and it loses. Sigh. What an awful day. Well, not that bad, as my 4 team teaser won, and all 3 of my lesser picks. Man, if BAL had just held on for 3 more minutes, I would've had a HUGE day. And Flacco did mess up, so I think the pressure of the big gm got to him. Plus he didn't know how to handle this "D", which is surprising because it's not the first time he's seen them!

What sucks most believe it or not, is not the loss of money, but my best pick of the day has lost 2 wks in a row. Unheard of. Sorry to all that follow me (if there are any now!). Just bad luck right now.

 

[billbeater]

Steelies continue to defy!!!! Super Bowl BABY :toast: This team has BALLS!

Giants clearly a different team without Jacobs.... im afraid they peaked too soon and their run is over! Didnt catch the entire game however

zona is real shit! they cant beat a decent team, look for them to exit the playoff system quick

Have a good week Wormy :howdy: