Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (13)

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Perfect wk. My Thanksgiving record has been very good, so that streak continued as well. DET came back to make that gm more interesting than it should’ve been. LAC looked to be the better POW in their demolition of DAL. Then my added play of LAR & teaser both hit w/ease on Sunday. Very enjoyable holiday weekend, to be certain. I hope everyone else did well too.

POW 7-5, Teasers 6-6, Overall 33-22-1.

MIN +2 ½ won a key div gm on Turkey day @ DET. Now coming off a long wk, they face the suddenly hot Falcons. Indeed ATL’s oline is looking much better, which only helps the vertical play of Ryan, Jones & Sanu. But, their 3 gm win streak is a little suspect upon closer inspection. It started against DAL where they were fresh off the losses of Elliott & all-world LT Smith. ATL’s “D” cashed in that gm sacking Dak 8 times. Then ATL took SEA to the woodshed early on MNF, but allowed them to comeback to squeak out a W against a SEA “D”, w/out stalwarts Sherman & Chancellor roaming the secondary. Then last wk ATL beat the Fitzpatrick-led Bucs. MIN on the other hand went thru 3 straight battles against top-tier “O”s in DET, LAR & WAS. Those “D”s aren’t half bad either. Even their cupcake wins earlier in the season against CLE, BAL & CHI have very good front-7’s. Led by LT Reiff (hasn’t given up a sack yet), MIN’s oline is very deep & humming along. It’s no surprise that career backups Latavious Murray & Case Keenum are lighting up the field. It always starts in the trenches. On the other side of the ball, MIN’s “D” is definitely no surprise. The big matchup will be all-pro corner Xavier Rhodes vs Julio. But what will likely decide this one is the matchup between Sanu & Trae Waynes. Waynes has been excellent in coverage & should be able to contain Sanu. MIN’s run “D” has been consistent, so the return of Devonta Freeman should be nullified. W/that kind of coverage, Everson Griffen & co should have success getting to Ryan. This will be an interesting matchup between the #1 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down “O” (ATL) vs the #1 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down “D” (MIN). But the key for me is MIN also being #2 on 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down “O”, while ATL is #16 on 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down “D”. Throw in MIN being @ +4 in TO ratio while ATL is @ -3, & MIN should win this one SU.

MIN 31
ATL 20
5 Units

GL to all & comments are most welcome.
 

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Honorable Mentions:

1 Unit DET +3: I believe Stafford is good enough to score on BAL’s staunch “D” while a high school “D” would prob be good enough to stymie Flacco & co.

1 Unit Wormy Teaser:

NE +4 ½
CAR +17 ½
LAC -1
PHI +8
 

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BOL on your picks on Sunday Wormy as I like the reasoning on Minn as I will take another look at that one.
 

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That Minny team is playing some real good football. Atlanta (7-4) was written off at one time. Now they playing like the Atlanta team of last year. They are in 3rd place chasing the Saints and Panthers. They are at home giving less than the fg. I like them in this game only because Minny has virtually clinched with a 3 game lead over the Lions. Although I know they are chasing home field advantage and the game is big for them, I still think the dirty birds will take care of business at home. I through out all stats in this play and strictly playing Atlanta for that reason.

good luck my friend and great work this season, always enjoy your write-ups and thoughts
 

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United- I just want to add that HC Mike Zimmer doesn't coach his teams to lay down and they had 10 days to prepare. I believe they are the better team on both sides of the ball statistically and play based on the strength of schedule. Case Keenum has proven he belongs and is very comfortable at the helm. Last but not least let's look at who the prey was for the Falcons during their three-game hot streak: a decimated Dallas crew, a Seattle squad with quite a few injuries playing on a short week who give them all they can handle and a Tampa Bay team without Jameis Winston who hung around for at least 3 Q.

Give me the Vikings +3 any day. Still I expect a hell of a game !

Cheers,

xfl
 

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United- I just want to add that HC Mike Zimmer doesn't coach his teams to lay down and they had 10 days to prepare. I believe they are the better team on both sides of the ball statistically and play based on the strength of schedule. Case Keenum has proven he belongs and is very comfortable at the helm. Last but not least let's look at who the prey was for the Falcons during their three-game hot streak: a decimated Dallas crew, a Seattle squad with quite a few injuries playing on a short week who give them all they can handle and a Tampa Bay team without Jameis Winston who hung around for at least 3 Q.

Give me the Vikings +3 any day. Still I expect a hell of a game !



Cheers,

xfl

Excellent points and all true. I wonder why Vikes aren't a -3 or at least a pick. NFL is funny sometimes. I think it will be a heck of a game and Atlanta stays in the hunt in the best all around division in the NFL this year.

good luck to you also my friend
 

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BOL on your picks on Sunday Wormy as I like the reasoning on Minn as I will take another look at that one.
Thanks Grave, BOL to you too. I don't typically do well when taking same team 2 in a row.
 

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United & XFL, this is the reason I'm here: Talking football!

Sometimes you do need to go w/your gut like United. I believe ATL would be ok w/making POs regardless of seeding. I think talent wins out here. MIN is such a balanced team across the board, esp in the trenches.

BOL you 2! Feel free to discuss here anytime!
 

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Hey Wormy and United...always enjoy both of your regular contributions. Shout out to Hache Man for the same.

Just a few more nuggets on this game. I had the advanced line at MIN -3 so to me this is a 6 pt. overlay.

ATL had strong division rival NAWLINS on deck for TNF action as well.

Atlanta is 0-4 ATS before playing on a Thursday.


Dan Quinn is 0-9 ATS vs. teams off a division game. Now 2-11 ATS.


I also found that Quinn is 1-3 ATS as a favorite off a division game, and 1-3 ATS after playing Tampa Bay.


Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is 40-17 ATS. He is 3-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, and 2-0 SUATS vs. Atlanta's Matt Ryan.
 

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Good luck today.... :103631605
 

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HACHE MAN!!!

You know, when you wish me luck I was winning, & as soon as you stopped coming by, I started losing! So I'm very thrilled to see your post my friend!

BOL today as well.
 

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Hey Wormy and United...always enjoy both of your regular contributions. Shout out to Hache Man for the same.

Just a few more nuggets on this game. I had the advanced line at MIN -3 so to me this is a 6 pt. overlay.

ATL had strong division rival NAWLINS on deck for TNF action as well.

Atlanta is 0-4 ATS before playing on a Thursday.


Dan Quinn is 0-9 ATS vs. teams off a division game. Now 2-11 ATS.


I also found that Quinn is 1-3 ATS as a favorite off a division game, and 1-3 ATS after playing Tampa Bay.


Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is 40-17 ATS. He is 3-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, and 2-0 SUATS vs. Atlanta's Matt Ryan.
Wow, fantastic trends. I'm breathing slightly easier now. Great contributions as well XFL!
 

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Wormy,Nice job on the Minny pick today !

Woo Nelly! I'm glad that hit for us. I always feel bad when people follow a play & it loses. MIN was a little conservative early, but luckily cruised at the end.

Stupid teaser tho. I felt sick putting that in & I'm shocked PHI killed it. Wentz looked like a 2nd yr player. Big step backward for that "O".
 

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Always a good read my friend..... thanks :103631605
 

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