Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (13)

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Phew. I’ve now had 3 perfect wks in a row. 5-0, then 0-6, then 6-0. DET won in a cakewalk & I highly regret not making that a GOY. I was worried about DET’s “O” scoring, which should still be a concern, but not against PHI’s “D”. Got a little lucky w/KC, but the rest of plays were spot on.

POW 6-5-1, Teasers 4-4, Overall 30-30-1

CHI (-7) is showing signs of life in an unlikely PO hunt after starting 0-3. The bulk of their wins have come on the rd, but their hm losses were not to schmucks. GB, ARI, MIN & DEN were their hm losses, w/a gritty win vs the then hot Raiders as their lone hm victory. CHI’s no-name “D” has really come on since those 1[SUP]st[/SUP] 3 gms allowing only 2 opponents to score over 20 (MIN & DET). Enter SF who avg 13.8 ppg & sport a bottom 5 pass “D”. CHI OC Adam Gase is a master QB coach & OC. As if it wasn’t enough that he helped coach 2 DEN “O”s to be very successful w/Tebow & Peyton off neck surgery, he now has Jay Cutler performing above expectations. What a resume. I hope MIA hires him next yr. W/Forte & Alshon returning last wk, & disgruntled TE Bennett back this wk, their “O” should only improve. Both Zach Miller & Eddie Royal are questionable, so if they play it would be a bonus. CHI has said they’ll platoon Forte & Langford, which isn’t good for SF’s pedestrian run “D” as both will have fresh legs throughout the gm. Gabbert has reinvigorated SF’s “O” to the tune of 13, 13 & 17 pts. Wow. Because of Hyde’s injury, RB Draughn has started the last 3 gms as well, averaging 3.4 ypc. So you have a poor run “D” w/CHI, but an awful run “O” w/SF, & an emerging pass “O” in CHI, against one of the worse pass “D”s in the land. Phil Dawson is SF’s #1 “O” weapon. SF is losing away from Levi’s Stadium by an avg of 21 ppg. This is usually a sign of a young team & coaching staff still figuring out how to play on the rd. CHI is off a long wk too. Throw in CHI DC Vic Fangio having familiarity w/some of SF’s personnel & revenge factor because he was overlooked for HC there, & CHI should cruise here.

SF 13
CHI 24
5 Units

GL to all & comments are most welcome.
 

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Honorable Mentions:

1 Unit TEN -2 ½: This should be a tight one, but w/the loss of Hurns for JAX, & return of Wright for TEN, I feel Mariota & TEN “D” do enough here to get revenge (lost to JAX just 2 wks ago 13-19).

1 Unit CAR -6 ½: Continuing on that ride! I felt initially that NOR would keep this close & this could be their 1[SUP]st[/SUP] loss. But upon closer inspection, seems as though NOR’s entire starting “D” is on the injury report, & this is the same “D” that’s allowing a historical amount of pts. The way CAR’s “D” is playing I don’t see how NOR keeps this close.

1 Unit WAS -4: DAL is hobbling & WAS should smell blood in the water. Against a hated div rival, on primetime @ hm, WAS has all the motivational edge. Cousins is playing well, leading a very balanced attack behind a solid oline. WAS’s “D” is also solid on the line, so they should do enough to contain McFadden & DAL’s run gm.

2 Units Wormy Teaser:

HOU +16 ½
ARI +9
DEN +9
NE +5 ½
 

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Nice work, bro! I'll be taking your advice and playing the Under 43' in the Chi Bears game...

We Be Bad
 

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Good luck. I like your Chicago and Washington picks. I gotta feeling the Fins are going to open up their offense today showing us what they could have been all season
 

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Good luck today Wormy!! I like the CHI pick as well. Any thoughts on MIA today? I've been on the wrong side when picking them all year!
 

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Just another perfect week for you Wormy Pix. I see we are both Bear fans today. If Cutler makes the right decisions, and can hang onto the ball when he's hit we should be okay. I took the Saints only on a feeling that they will play one of their better games. Just when you think you have teams figured out in this league strange things happen. I guess I'm betting on the crazy NFL to strike again. It's realistic though. Brees has a great games against a division rival and Carolina maybe has some key turnovers. Or just maybe, the Saints will play tackle football today.

Good luck today my friend
 

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Wow, going 6-0 is hard. I had a run this year where I won like 11 bets in a row or something and 14 of 15. The shitty thing was, after I went 6-0 or so, I went super conservative with my units because I didn't want to squander my winnings away. So of those 11 the last 5 were basically all for 1 unit. My reasoning was that if I won, I would be glad I won, and if I lost, I would be glad I didn't lose more. But the downside was, I was minimizing the impact of my hot streak. Anyway, you are hot as shit. I think you will win some more today. Maybe I will tail you on Carolina. I don't have any 4 pm action right now.
 

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Nice work, bro! I'll be taking your advice and playing the Under 43' in the Chi Bears game...

We Be Bad
The Under would be a solid play. But, this is CHI we're talking about, & their score w/DET was 34-37, so anything can happen. I'm betting more on CHI's ability to outscore SF's "O" rather than CHI's "D".
Good luck. I like your Chicago and Washington picks. I gotta feeling the Fins are going to open up their offense today showing us what they could have been all season
Yes! I'm going to reply to Jax's comment below, but w/changes on "O" forthcoming, I have high hopes for them today. BOL to us!!
Wow, going 6-0 is hard. I had a run this year where I won like 11 bets in a row or something and 14 of 15. The shitty thing was, after I went 6-0 or so, I went super conservative with my units because I didn't want to squander my winnings away. So of those 11 the last 5 were basically all for 1 unit. My reasoning was that if I won, I would be glad I won, and if I lost, I would be glad I didn't lose more. But the downside was, I was minimizing the impact of my hot streak. Anyway, you are hot as shit. I think you will win some more today. Maybe I will tail you on Carolina. I don't have any 4 pm action right now.
Thanks Chonce, but going 0-6 is also hard & I did that the wk before! When I said I was perfect for 3 wks, I was being semi-sarcastic. So I'm not so sure this is a hot streak. I know you are a veteran here, so you should know I try to stick to my Unit system where it's the same units every time & so many units more based on strength of play. I actually went 4-0 in Wk 10 too, not 5-0 as I quote above. Not sure if you should go on CAR, it's a tough gm for them w/so much pressure to remain undefeated AND clinch the div. The main reasons I'm playing them is they're 9-2 ATS & the line is favorable. But it's a bad spot for them.

GO BEARS!
 

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Good luck today Wormy!! I like the CHI pick as well. Any thoughts on MIA today? I've been on the wrong side when picking them all year!
Thanks Jax! I was very tempted to play MIA today, & here's why: OC Lazor was fired, which I felt he was a part of the problem w/Philbin, but after seeing how much they ran the ball vs HOU & TEN that he wasn't. But, in their gms since, MIA has reverted back to Tannehill in shotgun & Miller getting the ball less than 10 times. Then, word came out that Tannehill wasn't allowed to audible, esp to a run, & that Lazor was mostly to blame for that. Campbell & Zac Taylor (Tannehill's QB coach at A&M) have promised to run more vs BAL & I feel that can make play-action deadly. BAL has OWNED the Dolphins for as long as they've been around, but they're so hobbled rt now & Schaub is still throwing pick-6's. MIA should be able to cover the number, but I'm staying away because emotions may be clouding my vision! BOL whichever way you decide to go!
 

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Just another perfect week for you Wormy Pix. I see we are both Bear fans today. If Cutler makes the right decisions, and can hang onto the ball when he's hit we should be okay. I took the Saints only on a feeling that they will play one of their better games. Just when you think you have teams figured out in this league strange things happen. I guess I'm betting on the crazy NFL to strike again. It's realistic though. Brees has a great games against a division rival and Carolina maybe has some key turnovers. Or just maybe, the Saints will play tackle football today.

Good luck today my friend
Lol, thanks United! You wouldn't just be saying that because we're both on CHI?! NOR is a smart play today. As I told Chonce above, this is a bad spot for CAR, but the line & their ATS record are too much to pass up. CAR has such balance on both sides of the ball that they can easily recover from mistakes. Newton has been far from perfect, but the "D", ST's, Olsen & the run gm (Newton's legs included) have been so solid that it wouldn't matter who's throwing the ball! As you say, this is the whacky NFL, so we'll see what happens! That's part of the excitement, but also bad for our wallets! BOL buddy, let's get em today.
 

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picks look solid. good luck.


i got a teaser. cincy -.5 and pats -1.
 

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Wormy,Just wanted to say Hi to you as I was out most if the day but sorry about your Bears loss as the team folded like a cheap Kmart Chair today.
 

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Wormy,Just wanted to say Hi to you as I was out most if the day but sorry about your Bears loss as the team folded like a cheap Kmart Chair today.
No kidding Gravy. I didn't get to watch the gm either, but when I saw that CHI gave up a 40 yd run to Gabbert, I was like, OK this is not winning no matter what CHI does from that pt on.
 

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