Well, I very much enjoyed my long vacation but definitely did not enjoy checking on scores the following days. Went an awesome 1-2 on POWs, 0-3 on Teasers, and 2-9-1 overall. Yowsers. My only win came back in Wk 7 when I actually watched Wk 6 gms & had more time to cap Wk 7 slate. In hindsight, I actually didn’t make bad mistakes w/POWs. If I had time to properly cap the whole slate last wk, I likely would’ve went w/CLE over ARI, as rookie QB was making his 1st start on the rd, against CLE’s #1 “D”. But w/MIA’s starters their healthiest this season, & KC’s recent “O” struggles, MIA very well could’ve won that Frankfurt clash. So many big plays doomed them, including Williams’ bad snap & Tyreek’s fumble for a TD, which ended up being the difference in the gm. HOU somehow lost to CAR in Wk 8, which is an even bigger headscratcher after Stroud’s blowup gm vs TB last wk. My Teasers are where my lack of proper capping really showed up. Last wk I wasn’t tracking that Stafford was @ risk of not playing @ GB, which was huge as LA’s “D” held GB enough for them to win if they had a functional “O”. The previous 2 wk’s Teasers had better options, except for KC inexplicably getting killed @ DEN. So, poor luck combined w/not doing the usual homework all worked against me the last 3 wks. Back to the grind, which was fun to get back to!
Regular Season POW 3-5, Teasers 2-6, GOY 0-0, Overall 12-24-2 (14-24-2 Undocumented)
BAL -6 ½ is on a recent tear, rattling off 4 straight wins (3-1 ATS) since their debacle @ PIT. They include wins against 2 NFC div leaders, SEA & DET. They’ve won on the backs of their #1 run gm & #2 overall “D”. Enter CLE, who sport the #1 “D” in the land & #3 run “O”. The difference here will be health. CLE will be down both their starting tackles, which will vastly affect their run gm (against the #10 run “D”), as there were signs of that even in their blowout win vs ARI last wk, where CLE ran for a paltry 2.8 ypc. And if CLE can’t run, that’s where the score should get ugly. BAL is #1 in sacks @ 35, #1 in QB rating, & #1 in passing ypa. Deshaun has been painfully avg, esp if you take away his runs which BAL is expected to be well prepared for. The same could be said w/Lamar. He does lead the league in comp %, however a bulk of his throws are short ones & he’s 21st in the league in attempts. Despite this, Lamar is much further along this yr than Watson. Deshaun still looks unsteady in the pocket, & some of this throws have been awful. Even his 2nd TD vs ARI should’ve been an INT in the endzone, but Johnny on the Spot Amari Cooper tracked down the tipped ball & saved Watson. BAL’s RBs will also be a big difference here. Ford & Hunt have been heroes for CLE since Chubb’s injury, but nowhere else (except maybe SF) can the RB position be so plug & play than BAL. Gus Edwards & rookie Keaton Mitchell ran for a 190 yds & 3 TDs vs SEA, & they’ll put pressure on CLE’s vaunted pass rush all day (Michell is a GTD, however Justice Hill is still serviceable). What also helps is CB Mitchell is out for CLE, while Greg Newsome is still questionable to play. This will open things up deep for Flowers, Bateman & OBJ. If BAL can force some TOs (& control their own TOs, which is an issue for Lamar), this should be a snoozer. CIN is on tap Thurs for BAL, however Harbaugh insists his team is focused on the Browns. In BAL’s 4-gm win streak, they’ve outscored opponents 130-49.
CLE 13
BAL 26
5 Units
GL to all & comments are always welcome.
Regular Season POW 3-5, Teasers 2-6, GOY 0-0, Overall 12-24-2 (14-24-2 Undocumented)
BAL -6 ½ is on a recent tear, rattling off 4 straight wins (3-1 ATS) since their debacle @ PIT. They include wins against 2 NFC div leaders, SEA & DET. They’ve won on the backs of their #1 run gm & #2 overall “D”. Enter CLE, who sport the #1 “D” in the land & #3 run “O”. The difference here will be health. CLE will be down both their starting tackles, which will vastly affect their run gm (against the #10 run “D”), as there were signs of that even in their blowout win vs ARI last wk, where CLE ran for a paltry 2.8 ypc. And if CLE can’t run, that’s where the score should get ugly. BAL is #1 in sacks @ 35, #1 in QB rating, & #1 in passing ypa. Deshaun has been painfully avg, esp if you take away his runs which BAL is expected to be well prepared for. The same could be said w/Lamar. He does lead the league in comp %, however a bulk of his throws are short ones & he’s 21st in the league in attempts. Despite this, Lamar is much further along this yr than Watson. Deshaun still looks unsteady in the pocket, & some of this throws have been awful. Even his 2nd TD vs ARI should’ve been an INT in the endzone, but Johnny on the Spot Amari Cooper tracked down the tipped ball & saved Watson. BAL’s RBs will also be a big difference here. Ford & Hunt have been heroes for CLE since Chubb’s injury, but nowhere else (except maybe SF) can the RB position be so plug & play than BAL. Gus Edwards & rookie Keaton Mitchell ran for a 190 yds & 3 TDs vs SEA, & they’ll put pressure on CLE’s vaunted pass rush all day (Michell is a GTD, however Justice Hill is still serviceable). What also helps is CB Mitchell is out for CLE, while Greg Newsome is still questionable to play. This will open things up deep for Flowers, Bateman & OBJ. If BAL can force some TOs (& control their own TOs, which is an issue for Lamar), this should be a snoozer. CIN is on tap Thurs for BAL, however Harbaugh insists his team is focused on the Browns. In BAL’s 4-gm win streak, they’ve outscored opponents 130-49.
CLE 13
BAL 26
5 Units
GL to all & comments are always welcome.
