Canada vs Finland
Been fading Canada all tourney and it's been very good to me. I'm a huge Canada fan, so I'm glad they're doing well, but they just shouldn't be spotting big numbers against too many teams, as it's just not that type of team this year. Not that they're a bad team; just that they aren't nearly as good as in other years, yet they are always overvalued, because, well, it's Canada, and it's hockey. Lost a bet against them vs the US (although they were pretty clearly outplayed by the Americans), and pushed against the Swiss, but the rest were easy winners as Team Canada were mostly very heavy favourites. I think they probably win tomorrow against the Finns, but I expect it to be quite a close game, and would have only had them as something like pk -150 rather than what they are, which is -1.5 -113. It's hard to compare results at this tourney, because there have been some pretty big upsets, and odd results, but you can't overlook the fact that while the Finns lost to the surprising Swiss, they have also beaten both the Czechs and the Russians, and lost a tight one to the Swedes, who are easily the class of the tournament, and playing at home (more on them in a minute). Canada beat the aforementioned Swiss 4-1, but by no means did they run roughshod over them, and the only win they have against a quality opponent in the tournament is against the USA. They've trailed in every game, and have needed some heroics to get to where they are now.
Canada beat Finland 4-2 in a pre-tourney game, but I'm not sure how relevant that is, as it was a pre-tourney game, and against the Finnish backup keeper.
tl;dr: Canada probably wins, Finland could easily steal the game, so I think CAN -1.5 -113 is way too generous. I'm hoping Canada wins, but will bet on a close game and take FIN +1.5 +102. Will check if they post a ML before game time, as the Finns might be worth a punt at likely a great number. Nothing too crazy - betting 2 units.
2U FIN +1.5 +102
Russia vs Sweden
The Russians could upset here if Vasilevski steals one, but I doubt it. Sweden was the tourney favourite coming in, playing at home, and they've won every game so far to get to the semis. While they haven't trounced any of the big teams, that doesn't mean they weren't the better team in every game, and deserving winners. The close line for this game seems purely based on the last game they played with the Russians, which the Swedes won 3-2. I don't have a ton to say about this game, but I expect something like a 4-2 or 3-1 Sweden victory. The Swedes are just too talented and too deep this year, and it's their tournament to win.
2U SWE -0.5 -123
Been fading Canada all tourney and it's been very good to me. I'm a huge Canada fan, so I'm glad they're doing well, but they just shouldn't be spotting big numbers against too many teams, as it's just not that type of team this year. Not that they're a bad team; just that they aren't nearly as good as in other years, yet they are always overvalued, because, well, it's Canada, and it's hockey. Lost a bet against them vs the US (although they were pretty clearly outplayed by the Americans), and pushed against the Swiss, but the rest were easy winners as Team Canada were mostly very heavy favourites. I think they probably win tomorrow against the Finns, but I expect it to be quite a close game, and would have only had them as something like pk -150 rather than what they are, which is -1.5 -113. It's hard to compare results at this tourney, because there have been some pretty big upsets, and odd results, but you can't overlook the fact that while the Finns lost to the surprising Swiss, they have also beaten both the Czechs and the Russians, and lost a tight one to the Swedes, who are easily the class of the tournament, and playing at home (more on them in a minute). Canada beat the aforementioned Swiss 4-1, but by no means did they run roughshod over them, and the only win they have against a quality opponent in the tournament is against the USA. They've trailed in every game, and have needed some heroics to get to where they are now.
Canada beat Finland 4-2 in a pre-tourney game, but I'm not sure how relevant that is, as it was a pre-tourney game, and against the Finnish backup keeper.
tl;dr: Canada probably wins, Finland could easily steal the game, so I think CAN -1.5 -113 is way too generous. I'm hoping Canada wins, but will bet on a close game and take FIN +1.5 +102. Will check if they post a ML before game time, as the Finns might be worth a punt at likely a great number. Nothing too crazy - betting 2 units.
2U FIN +1.5 +102
Russia vs Sweden
The Russians could upset here if Vasilevski steals one, but I doubt it. Sweden was the tourney favourite coming in, playing at home, and they've won every game so far to get to the semis. While they haven't trounced any of the big teams, that doesn't mean they weren't the better team in every game, and deserving winners. The close line for this game seems purely based on the last game they played with the Russians, which the Swedes won 3-2. I don't have a ton to say about this game, but I expect something like a 4-2 or 3-1 Sweden victory. The Swedes are just too talented and too deep this year, and it's their tournament to win.
2U SWE -0.5 -123
