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Call me Calos
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5 units Baylor Lady Bears -2

Well, this is it. 2 seed Baylor comes in favored tonight over 1 seed Michigan St. Both teams have overcome great odds and doubters but now try to prove that they belong. Making this a big 5 unit play tonight, as this is the last play of the season. I really like Baylor tonight, especially with what Coach Kim Mulkey-Robertson brings to the table. She has turned around a program that went 7-20 the season before she took over and transformed it into a Big 12 regular season and conference champion. She is not one to hide her emotions as evident in the Elite 8 victory over UNC. Late in the game, with a large double digit lead, Mulkey-Robertson had tears in her eyes, because she was showing her team that they need to keep fighting until the game is over. That kind of leadership from a coach is what truly wins championships. The Lady Bears play with heart and emotion, but more importantly with athleticism. MSU also has heart and are strong willed bunch, as they showed coming back from 16 points to win by 4. But they lack the athleticism that they may need to defeat Baylor. While they managed to get this far on what they have, it's been that matchup zone, that has won their games. It is tough to bet against a team with 4 starters in double figures, but it's their depth that worries me. MSU plays with a 6 man rotation, mainly running with guards. JR forward Liz Shimek (6'1) and SR center Kelli Roehrig (6'4) are the only real bigs on the team, so if they get in foul trouble the responsibility will fall on freshman center Laura Hall. Hall is averaging 6 minutes per game with 1.1 points and 1.6 rebounds. Not looking good, especially when Baylor has 4 forwards on their roster with at least 20 minutes per game. This game, as they all do, will come down to rebounding. Both teams rely heavily on offensive boards and while MSU is bigger I'll give the nod to Baylor with their depth. Sophia Young and Steffanie Blackmon will have to give their usual performance, especially Blackmon who only put up 7 points against LSU. But it will be the guard play for Baylor that will have to step up. With the zone that the Spartans will bring, it is crucial that the Lady Bears protect the ball and hit some early threes. Chelsea Whitaker has shown that she can protect the rock, but Chemeka Scott will need to regain that shooting touch. After going 0-9 from behind the arc in the early rounds of the tournament, she lit up UNC with 4-8 performance only to go 1-3 with 7 points against LSU. Regardless, sophomore Emily Niemann came up big in the last game with 14 points. This seems to be the case with Baylor all year. They may not have the four starters in double digit scoring, like MSU, but you never know who is going to step up on any given night. MSU is 22-0 when they have four players in double figures. Kristen Haynie will get her looks and should have great night. It's imperative, though, that Baylor control that low post game and attack the basket whenever possible to get MSU's bigs in foul trouble. If they can do that they have a good chance at taking home the victory. A side note, the last time two teams making their first trip to the Final Four was in 1993, with Texas Tech beating Ohio St. Like tonight, a matchup between a Big 12 school and a Big 10, with Big 12 team taking the trophy.
 
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Sebass

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Choose your insight and picks have been great when it comes to the women but everyone is using a couple angles I think are skewed to make a case for the Baylor women.

A little food for thought...

First off, the MSU women have as good as a coach as Baylor, who motivates just as well, and leads their team to want it drastically just as badly.

Also, the zone helps take pressure off of the bigs down low for MSU and allows MSU's guards to get some charity stripe steals and start the break.

Against Tennessee where apparently MSU had a disadvantage inside, and got outrebounded by 10, Shimek and Roehrig had 1 foul each. Sounds to me like they play pretty smart knowing they aren't deep.

Everyone thinks Baylor is so deep, well six players played 192 out of 200 minutes against LSU so what does that say about their depth compared to MSU's? MSU had 6 players play 193 out of 200...

I still have to make my decision on this one but the line is at 2.5 and if it goes to 3 MSU becomes even more tempting.
 

ChooseORLose

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Great input Sebass. I like what you say. I agree that Coach McCallie of MSU is a great coach and she has done some remarkable things with her team, particularly in recruitment. Any coach who leads their team to a position to be the greatest deserves all the respect in the world. However, if you take a look at that Tennesee game the Lady Vols missed 8 free throws, to go 5-13. Had they made just 5 more the game would have been completely different. Also, you can make an argument that the Spartans bigs played well, with only one foul. But the fact is they did get outrebounded, and I'll argue that it was due to their lacking depth down low. Yes, Shimek had 11 boards, but Roehrig only managed 3. She seemed to be timid on the boards, perhaps for fear of fouling out. I just think two things could happen. One, the bigs don't come out aggressive or two the come strong and possibly get into trouble. Either scenario is not good for the Spartans. Baylor will find ways to attack those bigs. That's the way the play and they'll adjust. Remember that Baylor has faced a similar zone against Iowa St, a team they beat 82-77. Should be close, but I think Baylor pulls it out.
 

Sebass

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Choose, I chose to stay off the game...so good luck to you tonight...your reasoning and my reasoning resulted in a push in my mind...so I'll just enjoy it...
 

Sebass

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Good call Choose...thanks for hashin out the reasoning with me...saved me some money!
 

ChooseORLose

Call me Calos
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sorry you didn't cash in but i'm glad you didn't lose either. good luck with the rest of your year. until the next season or our next winning bet, whichever is first.
 
Lexis

Lexis

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Nice Call! :awesom:
 

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