Wk#5 Early Picks

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Record Entering Wk#4: Best Bets:1-0; Regular Bets 4-3;

Wk#4 picks Best Bet: KC(3 1/2) 1-0
Reg Picks: WASH(-3), Phil(+5 1/2), SD(-13), INDY(-7 1/2), CHIC(+2), Atl(-3), and JETS(+2): 3-4

YTD: Best Bets:2-0
Regular Picks: 7-7

WK 5:

Best Bets : Atl(+4 1/2): Atlanta is the better team; Giants not as bad as people thought two weeks ago but dont deserve to be this favored vs Atl
Tenn(-2) : Tenn has played poorly the past three games but with Cinn, Dall and Indy as opponents, they have played 3 of NFL's best offences, 2 away. Home field makes the difference here

Regular Picks: Wash(+3) : Seat suffers another let down after big OT win vs Den last week and upcoming game vs Dallas that could have consequences in playoffs. Wash has all kinds of technicals going their way for bounce back. Would make Best Bet except it is hard to make such a bad team a Best bet regardless of the spot they luckily find themselves in

Jax(+6): Jax at home finally set to reward backers. Three of first four teams it faced were SD, Indy and Phil, all very potent offenses. Kind of similar to Tenn setup

NO(-10) : back in dome off embarrassing loss facing TB off big upset; like the reversion to mean play here

DEN(-7): Finally a reasonable line for Denver. Been waiting to back them all year

 

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add SF(-5), StL (+7)-130, and NE(+1) to Regular Bets. So this week i have 2 best bets and 5 regular bets.

 

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record thru Wk #5:

Best Bets: 2-2
Regular Bets: 10-10

after the losing both my best bets via huge combacks...Clev. the biggest comeback in regular season history vs. Tenn and also getting zapped by three unanswered TD w Atl., it is like flipping a coin here so far...

so for Wk#6

Best Bet: Miami (+3.5) vs GB Miami better tm than most think

Regular Bets: Denver(-7.5) vs Jets 85% consensus, sure but one of two best tms vs worst NFL tm except Jax. i'll take it
Buff(+3): back to reality for NE
Balt(-3.5) vs TB
Clev.(-1.5) Vs Pitt. was hoping for more unrecognized value here, but clev comeback fully recognized. anyway, looks like a good spot for Clev
Atl (-3.5) vs Chic hopefully last week's loss is cause Giants are better than i thought as opposed to Atl being worse

 

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record thru wk#6:

Best Bets: 3-2
Regular Bets: 13-12

picks for week #7;

Best Bets: Indy(-3) and KC (+4 1/2)

Regular Bets: NO(+3), NE(-9 1/2), Dall(-5 1/2), and Wash(-5 1/2)

 

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adding to regular bets for week #7: with Chic(-3) and Minn(+5)

 

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record thru week#7

Best Bets: 5-2
Regular Bets: 16-15

Thankfully for me, i bet 4X units on my best bets than i do on the regular ones. I guess they are the only ones i put up worth paying attention to...for now at least.hope to change that.

Best Bet : Jets(-3). Here is an incredible statistic. In the past 25 years, the number of times, in over 5,000 games played after week #3, that a team which has lost more than 80% of its games was favored by 3 or more points against a team with a winning record is.....drum roll please.....4. That's 4 times in over 5,000 games. I find that to be incredible. For some perspective, during the same 25 year period, the number of times a team has scored more than 55 points in a game is 20, and the number of times a team has been favored by greater than 17 points is also 20. The Jets this week vs Bills is #5. Jets have played the second hardest schedule in the NFL and are finally facing a mediocre team, at H, after putting up some valiant efforts in the past few weeks in losing efforts, while Buff got lucky to beat Minn last week. Fortunes reverse at Meadowlands

PS The record for the 4, btw way, is 3-1, but of course such a small sample has no predictive value. Nonetheless, Jets this week.

Regular Bets:

ALL favorites: Indy(-3), NO(-1), Balt(-1), TB(-3), KC(-6.5), Dall(-9.5), Miami(-5.5), Det(-3.5)