Since I don't see any of the usual excellent Pac 12 content that is usually here by now I figured its time to get something started. I'm a long time fan/observer/handicapper of the Pac and have been consistently successful with it. Nothing too big this week but definitely some plays and leans.
Ore St -10 at Hawaii. I liked this even at 12 but now this is my favorite play. Ore st started sluggish last week and didn't perform well in the red zone but had no problem moving the ball in their non cover vs port st. Haw played well vs Wash but also had the luxury of defending a dud of a qb. This week they'll see one of the best in the land. Even though I believe Haw can have success running the ball against a work in progress which is both of Ore St's lines, it wont matter when they're playing from behind and need quicker pts/drives. Ore St has advantages in talent, coaching and they have a bye next week, although they are notorious slow starters I'm on -10 and mL-380 (few very small mL parlays).
Ore -12 vs Mich St. I don't have all the x's and o's here. This is simply a play on Mich st not being able to hang with the tempo, speed and home crowd when all combined. Exact oppo from what they practice against every day. You can try to simulate it but even Pac12 teams that have seen it for years have a hard time preping for and playing against it. The con is that teams that have had extra prep time do fair much better vs Ore. and Ore is replacing all their receivers from last year.
Was St -3 @ Nev. I grabbed pk and over 64 at the open which are long gone now but wazzu should be able to score at will through the air.
Ucla -23 vs Memphis. Its not too surprising that Ucla was sluggish last week. In hindsight I believe Vir was underrated and that was a long trip with a early start time. The OL may have legitimate problems but not bad enough where Memphis will be able to capitalize on them. Ucla dl/ lbs will dominate. This is the angle where now ucla feels the need to redeem themselves back home in front of peers/ media/ staff... Decent value here, should get ugly and fast. Will likely play 1st half also.
Stanford -2' vs Usc. Just a lean, I'll look to play it live with +$ at some point. If you don't know by now Stanford is a machine. All the talent they lost is now being replaced with top 25 (and even top 5) national recruiting classes. Usc has the starters to hand with any team in the country but depth is the issue. As Stanford brings waves and waves of powerful runs with great depth 4 qts may be too much for usc. Also Stanford is the type of team that can exploit the health issues of usc stars williams and kessler with their physicality.
I hate laying all this chalk and seem like such a homer but this is how i see it this week. We shall see.
Ore St -10 at Hawaii. I liked this even at 12 but now this is my favorite play. Ore st started sluggish last week and didn't perform well in the red zone but had no problem moving the ball in their non cover vs port st. Haw played well vs Wash but also had the luxury of defending a dud of a qb. This week they'll see one of the best in the land. Even though I believe Haw can have success running the ball against a work in progress which is both of Ore St's lines, it wont matter when they're playing from behind and need quicker pts/drives. Ore St has advantages in talent, coaching and they have a bye next week, although they are notorious slow starters I'm on -10 and mL-380 (few very small mL parlays).
Ore -12 vs Mich St. I don't have all the x's and o's here. This is simply a play on Mich st not being able to hang with the tempo, speed and home crowd when all combined. Exact oppo from what they practice against every day. You can try to simulate it but even Pac12 teams that have seen it for years have a hard time preping for and playing against it. The con is that teams that have had extra prep time do fair much better vs Ore. and Ore is replacing all their receivers from last year.
Was St -3 @ Nev. I grabbed pk and over 64 at the open which are long gone now but wazzu should be able to score at will through the air.
Ucla -23 vs Memphis. Its not too surprising that Ucla was sluggish last week. In hindsight I believe Vir was underrated and that was a long trip with a early start time. The OL may have legitimate problems but not bad enough where Memphis will be able to capitalize on them. Ucla dl/ lbs will dominate. This is the angle where now ucla feels the need to redeem themselves back home in front of peers/ media/ staff... Decent value here, should get ugly and fast. Will likely play 1st half also.
Stanford -2' vs Usc. Just a lean, I'll look to play it live with +$ at some point. If you don't know by now Stanford is a machine. All the talent they lost is now being replaced with top 25 (and even top 5) national recruiting classes. Usc has the starters to hand with any team in the country but depth is the issue. As Stanford brings waves and waves of powerful runs with great depth 4 qts may be too much for usc. Also Stanford is the type of team that can exploit the health issues of usc stars williams and kessler with their physicality.
I hate laying all this chalk and seem like such a homer but this is how i see it this week. We shall see.
