Winning Tips with Practical Examples for sports bettors

[truthstorm]

A little help, mainly for followers, not those who 'cap themselves.
My qualifications as someone who can help?
I used to run the most popular book on the strip, and I've been a hired consultant for some of the top names in the offshore industry.
I know people who bet on sports for a living, and I've met many who tried and failed.
There are lessons to be learned from both.

First - a simple question.
What is a more accurate sample of a handicappers' skill (or lack thereof) - a 22 game sample or 90 game sample?

Not a trick question, but hopefully a conversation starter. And eyesight to the blind.

Anyone interested in engaging in a fun and hopefully educational conversation can answer here, or pm me if you'd like.
Or not.

 

[Michelangelo]

What goes into those meatballs?

One thing I use that you didn't mention is fresh dried oregano from my garden. Adds a real nice flavor. But using fresh oregano dpesn't add anything and may detract.

I also use an egg for bonding. And a little milk to soften them up.

And roll lightly. Not tight!

 

[truthstorm]

Short on time today, don't usually post on weekends but will reply as soon as I can.

And you're right, I didn't think about oregano when talking about only using fresh spices, oregano is best used dry.

And your garden - got any basil growing there?
(I know you do!)

Thanks for replying, Michelangelo. I'll get back with the rest of the stuff I put in my meatballs (including the one ingredient my grandmother would call sacrilegious if she knew) and other betting related stuff asap.

 

[slapshot]

22

 

[truthstorm]

I'll update the meatball stuff in the other thread.
Back to "Tips to help followers" in this one.
But before I get to the list of tips (I'm still compiling/editing it) - an answer and one last question.

What is a more accurate sample of a handicappers' skill (or lack thereof) - a 22 game sample or 90 game sample?
The answer is a 90 day sample.
The more data you have the better positioned you are to make an informed decision on where to place your money.
But . . . only if you take time to LOOK AT the larger sample, and not be distracted by the shiny object smaller sample.
I'll expand on that and explain later.
For now, one last question.
You don't cap games yourself, you look for someone to tail.
Most of you look for a winner to follow, right?
The question - Would you continually bet the plays of a guy who is at 47% with 100 picks given?

Again, not a trick question, just a roundabout way of getting bettors to see the whole picture and make better decisions.
Thanks to those who replied here and via private message,

 

[Bruins4Life]

Ground breaking.
90 is a better sample size than 22.

 

[truthstorm]

"Ground breaking, 90 is a better sample size than 22."

My point exactly.

Yet despite the "ground breaking" obvious, bettors are betting on/following the 22%, ignoring the 90%, and losing money.
Like I said, I'll expand/explain later.

 

[phdinsports]

What goes into those meatballs?

One thing I use that you didn't mention is fresh dried oregano from my garden. Adds a real nice flavor. But using fresh oregano dpesn't add anything and may detract.

I also use an egg for bonding. And a little milk to soften them up.

And roll lightly. Not tight!

Bread crumbs, a little milk, tiny slices of white wonder bread, Reggiano, in a bowl. Let it soak for an hour. I get a veal, pork, ground beef blend from my butcher, but you could just use beef. Add beef to the bowl, egg, fresh parsley, garlic minced almost liquified with a good masher, salt and pepper. Mix together. Roll them. I fry them in a little olive oil first. Love that crisp fried exterior of the meatball! You could also cooked them in the oven first. I then use that oil as a base for my sauce. Once the sauce is virtually complete I add the meatballs in the sauce for 10-15 minutes and viola, everyone that's had them say it's the best ever!

 

[truthstorm]

PHD - Got your reply, thanks.

Now back to the topic.
The question "Would you continually bet the plays of a guy who is at 47% with 100 picks given?" was rhetorical.
Anyone reading it thought, "Of course not." (Same as "Of course 90% is a better sample size.")
But you would.
You do.
Some of you do anyway, I see "Thanks for posting" and "So glad you're here" messages after the posted plays.
This is because of one of the mistakes followers make - selective sight, only seeing what they want to see.
Not seeing the whole picture. And being distracted by shiny objects.

Here's what happens, in general:
A guy starts betting on sports. He 'caps his own games. He loses.
Estimates say 95-99% of all bettors lose, (except on internet forums where almost everyone "wins," especially forum sections where there's no accountability for records.)
He wants his money back so he looks for someone to save him.
Here are some common mistakes some of these bettors make:

1 - Letting desperation to get back their money over ride their common sense. They believe there's some guy out there that has the Magic Formula for picking winners and who will get their money back. And they're determined to find him and jump right in. But winners are rare and far outnumbered by frauds. Don't be eager, be patient.

2 - Forgetting that everyone who's ever bet on sports has had a winning streak, and believing that someone who is currently on one has the Magic Formula.
Have you ever had a winning streak of 10 or 20 plays or more? Yes, of course you have, Everyone who has ever tried their hand at sports betting has had a winning streak. Does it mean they win all the time? Of course not. Don't forget that. it'll serve you well.

3 - Being unaware of the "Throw Some Shit at the Wall and Hope it Sticks" scam which pops up in every forum, year after year.
A new poster shows up trolling for suckers. He gives a gaudy record for picks he never gave out at the forum.
He gives his picks. If they lose, he leaves, waits, and comes back at a later date under a new name and tries again.
Eventually he'll hit some winners as ANYONE would, and then it's FISH ON!!
He uses private messages to solicit money for the service he swears he doesn't have when exposed by experienced, savvy forum members who have seen him and his ilk before.
It still amazes me how every time a new snake shows up in the Garden some bettors are not only willing but eager to take a bite of his apple.

4 - Not keeping an open mind and realizing that posters who point and say, "Careful. You do realize that's a snake, don't you?" aren't "haters" or the even more ridiculous "jealous."
How empty does a person's life have to be that they think someone would be jealous of some rando posting picks on the internet?
I guess as empty as someone who actually would be jealous.
But that's not what you usually see. "Hater" and "Jealous" are deflections used by the snakes and the burner accounts they post under, and by blind followers who attack anyone who dares to question their latest savior, guys who label anyone who doesn't supplement their need for confirmation bias as blasphemers, instead of what they really are - posters simply trying to help the uninitiated and unaware.

5 - Understand and don't forget the juice.
It only takes books 10% in juice to beat the overwhelming majority of sports bettors.
Understand what happens when you give them DOUBLE that by consistently laying -120.
Every 5 losses becomes an additional unit lost.
So, for example, a combined NFL and college record of 52-44 (which is only a mediocre 54% to begin with, hardly "unmatched") is really 52-52 with losses added for juice. In other words - it's not winning. Don't follow someone who hides juice or consistently posts fake juice.
Winning 'cappers don't need to cheat.

6 - Not seeing the whole board (to use a chess metaphor.)
Don't let some charlatan salesman use sleight of hand to convince you he is winning on an "unmatched" level.
Factor in juice and you'd be surprised to find only about 7-8 units of profit.
"Oh my God! 7-8 units??!! Unheard of in the history of sports betting! Sign me up!" (<- sarc)"
EVERYONE has had a 7-8 unit profit (and more) at some time in their betting career.
Look at ALL picks results, not just one cherry picked section (look at the 80% sample, not the 20%.)

7 - Understanding Regression toward the Mean. If you don't know it - look it up.
Jumping on already established trends is one of the biggest pitfalls for followers. If winning was as easy as that, everyone would be profitable.

There are more. Such as don't chase, and don't increase you wager size.
And don't EVER send your money to a tout service. There are guys on the 'net who will help you for free, guys who actually do win.
They're few and far between but they're here. You just have to look hard and do your due dilligence to eliminate the frauds before choosing who is worth tailing.

My best advice is this - 'cap for yourself.
If you can't, then find someone worth following. But don't do so blindly.

 

[ScottL]

What is a better wager in College Football, OVER 55 -110, or OVER 52.5 -145 in the same game?
I only ask because most shops have a dropdown menu now. Usually buying points is a ripoff. But sometimes you get something that "appears" to offer more value. Does it? Who buys points here? Does it work in your favor over the course of a season?

 

[skoda]

My best advice is this - 'cap for yourself.

Agree 100%

Watch any team and be the coach. Is it the players or is it the coach? Basketball Baseball and then Football. My number 1 bet is the money Line, ATS is a coin flip. Totals usually are within 5 points one way or another. So…. Throw out other opinions and…. Great example is tonight’s Florida/Ole Miss game… the Pointspread is 2 1/2 and Only Quad 1 team they played is Tennessee and lost 90-64?

My best advice is this - 'cap for yourself.

 

[truthstorm]

Scott, answered you in PM, thanks.
And thanks Skoda, for your post and advice.

Last post on this topic. (First NCAA picks tomorrow.)
Again - this is not for experienced bettors, it's for those who tail posters.
I'll show the example I mentioned of some you betting picks "winning" at a shite 47% with a data sample of 70 picks because you're not looking at the whole picture, you're distracted by shiny objects, and you're not calculating juice.

Example: a guy gives picks in four categories; NFL, college football, BIG picks and MONSTER picks.
Here's how he starts each post:
NFL record at Rx is X-X, College record at Rx is X-X, Monster record at Rx is X-X.

What's missing?
What's intentionally left out because it doesn't serve the unstated purpose, and in hope no one notices.
What's missing? See it?
The answer? The record for BIG picks.
Are BIG picks given out? Yes. So why show the record for the other plays but not that one?
Ignore excuses (like "Anyone who wants to can figure it out themselves!") - the real reason it's not posted is because they're an abysmal 47%.
Yes, 47%

Here's the math.
Total picks 96; overall record 52-44 for a very mediocre 54%.
But it's actually worse. Factor in juice. Plays are -120, which means every 10 losses equals another loss. So 52-44 is actually 52-48', 52%.
At a standard wager to win $100 that's 52 wins for +$5200 and 48' losses at -120 for a loss of approx. $5,820.
Net? A loss of -$620.00 (Hardly "I AM UNMATCHED!")

Total number of MONSTER picks 27.
Subtract 27 MONSTER picks from 96 total picks and what do you get for the number of BIG picks given? 69 picks.
Record for those 69 BIG picks? 33-36, 47%.
With -120 juice, at a standard wager to win $100, that's 33 wins for +$3,300 and 39' losses for -$4,740.00 for a net LOSS of $1,440.

And for that, some bettors post, "Thank you!" and "Glad you're here! and "You're a WINNER!" in replies to the BIG picks posted.
They're Kevin Bacon in Animal House, grabbing his ankles and saying "Thank you sir, may I have another!"

Why?
Because they don't even realize they're playing 47% picks.
Because they don't see the whole board
Because they don't factor in juice.
And because they're distracted by shiny objects.

How could anyone blindly tail numbers losing as badly as those?
Because they're distracted by the shiny object - the record on GOY ( oops, I mean "MONSTER") picks.
But again, they don't factor in juice. See the whole board.
In all sports, the MONSTER record is 25-14. Looks good, right? Now add the -120 juice.
25 wins = +$2500; 14 losses = $1,680. Profit is approx. 8 units.

Actual profit is approx. 7 units though because while you can buy the hook for 10 cents NO BOOK let's you buy, for example, -4' to -3 for 10 cents, and be honest, you see it all the time, a line given that is 1-2 points less than the real line, and only 10 cents added. Not to mention the plays where the line is posted as "money line bet" without posting the line, which is often 20-30 cents above the standard -110, based on the point line of the favorite he's posting.

7-8 units of profit??! Oh my God!! NEVER in the history of sports betting has anyone EVER made that much money!
It's unheard of, it's unbelievable, it's UNMATCHED!!! (< sarc.)

Is 7-8 units a nice profit? Sure.
But's there are guys posting at the Rx who have many more units banked.
And it hardly qualifies for bogus boasts like . . . I am UNMATCHED as a handicapper, here or anywhere!
Especially when you see the whole picture, and see the HUGE plays (oops, I mean BIG plays) are at 33-36 for 47%. and 33-39', a piss poor 45% in real units, and a net loss of more than $1,440 for a $100 bettor.

Magic Formula? No.

Regression toward the mean is now in play also, see the #'s dropping.

Summary:

DON'T BLINDLY TAIL ANYONE.

See the WHOLE board, not just the cherry-picked snapshot.

Don't worship false idols - don't confuse a standard winning streak (that EVERY bettor has at some time) with someone having the Magic Formula that will lead you to riches.

Understand juice.

And regression toward the mean.

And for God's sake stop following a play that hits for a miserable 47% with a very sizable data sample of 70 plays.
You'll lose your bankroll faster than if you did your own handicapping.
Which brings me full circle back to the original advice - 'CAP YOUR OWN GAMES.
Work at it. Ask for help here in the forums. You'll get it, and you'll get better at it.
And you won't need to follow anyone.

 

[Michelangelo]

Good info, truth. Good luck to you.

 

[Bruins4Life]

Average bet at -120 on sides?
What dogshit book are you using?

 

[2the9s]

Which book did you run on the strip?