Will Arsenal lose in Premiership this season?

quantumleap · Aug 16, 2004

I suppose they will, but not very often. I've been looking at the odds of betting the win and betting the draw so that if there is a draw I end up netting 0. If they win, I end up winning.

Of course if they lose then I lose both bets.

Anyone care to speculate on how this season might be different than last?

Mr NJ Sports · Aug 17, 2004

They lost to Man utd in the FA cup and Chelsea in the CL last year so it is not beyond the realm of possibility that they lose this season. Newcastle is good, Liverpool is a good side, Boro will be good. Villa is good.

How long can a team keep winning without a slip up?

deutscher · Aug 17, 2004

That's an interesting theory. I assume you have looked at the odds you'll receive on Arsenal - on average, you'll be lucky to get 1.3 for an Arsenal home win, and not much more than 1.5 for many away wins.

So, for example, if you have average odds on Arsenal winning at 1.5 (which may be generous), and the draw at 3.8, your profit will only be about 10%, or less. You'll have to have at least 10 wins for every loss. Last season, out of 38 played, they won 26 and drew 12. If they have as few as 2 losses, you may be looking at breaking even, or worse.

Sorry to rain on your parade - but to do a 1X with odds this low IS dangerous.

Having said all that - gooooood luck!

quantumleap · Aug 17, 2004

No problem about raining on my parade deutscher. I welcome any comments this well thought-out.

I think I figured it out last week that Arsenal against Everton would have gained me $60 if I had bet both the win and the draw. If I had lost both bets if Arsenal would have lost I believe it would have been something like a loss of $290 so the payoff a little more than 20%. Of course I would not bet like this for the Man Utd./Chelsea/Newcastle matches unless the odds were good enough.

I think one has to approach a bet such as this like any other bet, weighing the pros and the cons, not just blindly betting a system bet. I think I'll do an experiment here to see if it works. My last experiment in the baseball forum started off with a loss so hopefully this one will have better results.

quantumleap · Aug 20, 2004

I took a look at the odds at Pinnacle for the first week. Here is how my experiment would have played out using those odds.

8/15 vs. Everton
Arsenal win: -194, risk $100 to win $51.55
Draw: +262, risk $38.17 to win $100

Arsenal won so you would have won $51.55 for the win and lost $38.17 for the draw for a profit of $13.38. This is 9.7% of the amount risked.

8/22 vs. Middlesbrough (Canbet.com)
Arsenal win: -303, risk $100 to win $33.00
Draw: +350, risk $28.57 to win $100

If you were to bet this way and Arsenal wins, your profit would be $4.43 or 3.4% of the amount risked. Hardly worth it for this match I think.

Just a side note, Pinnacle is offering this match at -300 for an Arsenal win and +300 for a draw. How can they expect to get any takers at these horrible odds??!

soccerbob · Aug 23, 2004

This team is just an offensive machine. Patrick Vieira hasn't even played in the first two games. Jose Reyes seems to have picked up the offense having been able to go through training camp as part of the full squad. The one thing that worries me about this squad Lehman in the net. He is constantly out of position and gives up too many soft goals. I may not bet on them in some spots but I sure won't play against them. Overs look like a good play in their games until the linesmaker cathes up with the price.

I still won't be overly impressed with this squad until I see some solid results in the Champion's League and Arsenal playing in that marvelous competition in May.

quantumleap · Aug 23, 2004

I've been thinking about the overs with this team as well soccerbob. They have scored 9 goals in just 2 games and that is not counting the opposition. I can imagine these games to be quite exciting.

Current odds at Pinnacle are at +106 for over 3. With Arsenal's scoring attack I don't know how this bet could lose.

For those following the Arsenal experiment, Wednesday's odds for the match against Blackburn are as follows:

8/25 vs. Blackburn (Canbet.com)
Arsenal win: -400, risk $100 to win $25.00
Draw: +425, risk $23.53 to win $100

If you were to bet this way and Arsenal wins, your profit would be $1.47 or 1.2% of the amount risked. Again, hardly worth it for this match.

quantumleap · Aug 26, 2004

The experiment continues. It appears that the books are not giving good odds with the poorer teams and understandably so. I think I will suspend posting here until I find a match that is worth betting on using this method.

Here are the stats for the Norwich match-

8/28 vs. Norwich (Canbet.com)
Arsenal win: -278, risk $100 to win $35.97
Draw: +350, risk $28.57 to win $10

If you were to bet this way and Arsenal wins, your profit would be $7.40 or 5.8% of the amount risked.

Mr NJ Sports · Aug 28, 2004

At the Palms they have Arsenal -1 1/2 +105 on the road today... If they keep scoring 4 a game that may be okay.

quantumleap · Aug 28, 2004

Mr. NJ Sports:

I was kind of scared off the big Arsenal spreads after the last match with Blackburn. It seemed that Arsenal wasn't quite putting it in the goal like they had for the first 2 games.